Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

[dew1679666265]

Soriano was very good, but it's been a while since he has done that. He has been a -war guy pretty much since his 1st year here.

 

Soriano WARs as a Cub according to Fangraphs: 7, 4.1, 0, 3.2, 1.4, 4

Soriano WARs as a Cub according to B-R: 4.1, 1.9, -1.8, 0.6, -0.3, 1.8

 

He's never had a negative WAR as a Cub according to Fangraphs and has had a negative WAR in 2 out of 6 years as a Cub according to B-R.

 

NOTE: That's not to say he's been a great player or anything like that. I was just refuting your assertion that he's been a negative WAR player since his first year with the Cubs.

[davell]

Sori has basically been a solid FA signing. Been worth just about equal to what he's made to this point. Never thought we'd be able to say that back when we signed him. Hell, if McKay had been here earlier and he had been using a lighter bat, who knows? Anyway, whether those two things have truly helped or not, I'm thinking they did. It's spring and he'll have another .800 OPS this year.

[toonsterwu]

There really isn't much on the roster that needs to be projected. I guess (based on the comments I missed several pages of debate on the 25th man.

 

Leaving aside the scintillating debate on the 25th man of a pedestrian team, I think projecting the Cubs record is a bit tough. I think it really comes down to how well they are playing this summer. If they tank early, the chances seem quite high that there could be some selling of parts, which could really flatten the record in the 2nd half. My initial hunch is somewhere from 70-81 wins. I think we under-sell the chance of the rotation being a bit more inconsistent than it looks (Jackson has moments that he looks great ... then he has moments where he looks like a 4th/5th starter - see ... well career, and last year). We've got one year of Samardzija that we're banking on, and in Garza's case, he's coming off injury, and it'd be tough to bet that he could replicate his 2011 (although one hopes so). Pen isn't any certainty, and the lineup could easily stall as it could go up.

 

I'll get back to pondering projections later, but, and someone may have discussed this possibility, but I half wonder if a spring trade could happen. We've got some parts that we could potentially move. There's some obvious candidates, like Soriano/Marmol, but I'm not really thinking "big" here (and those would be "big" trades because of name and the likelihood of us eating money). I'm more thinking if a team might suddenly wonder if, say, Scott Hairston, could fill a role and if we could get something useful for that. Specifically, I wonder, if guys like Wood/Raley/Rusin look bleh, if they might go out and trade for a young lefty (and if we want to go deeper, I'm thinking about the Orioles here and their excess of lefties, along with their need for a DH type bat ... of course, Soriano is a possible "fit" as well, but that's a more complex scenario).

[davell]

Hairston can't be traded yet. I think its sometime in June, isn't it? At any rate, I think he's here well into 2014. The platoon of Schierholtz/Hairston can be very productive for the next 2 years, before Soler hits the majors for good in 2015.

[toonsterwu]

Your right, I forgot about the rule.

 

Still ... do wonder if they pull off a trade for a lefty, either pen or rotation. Maybe not the Orioles (although their bevy of lefties increases the possibility that someone could be moved), just in general. Not the biggest need, though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Something called "Steamer" projections from Fangraphs:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=17&players=0&sort=22,d

[neely crenshaw]

Soriano was very good, but it's been a while since he has done that. He has been a -war guy pretty much since his 1st year here.

 

Soriano WARs as a Cub according to Fangraphs: 7, 4.1, 0, 3.2, 1.4, 4

Soriano WARs as a Cub according to B-R: 4.1, 1.9, -1.8, 0.6, -0.3, 1.8

 

He's never had a negative WAR as a Cub according to Fangraphs and has had a negative WAR in 2 out of 6 years as a Cub according to B-R.

 

NOTE: That's not to say he's been a great player or anything like that. I was just refuting your assertion that he's been a negative WAR player since his first year with the Cubs.

 

For the record. I was using B-R and my statement was used as a generalization to show that Soriano has been up and down as a cub. There isn't data(from either stat group) that says he will stay the same or go up. He was 4.1 year 1, the 3 years in the middle he toiled just above and just below 0, and then was very good last year. It's not a knock on him, but using either system he has been as high as a 7 and as low as 0 on fan graph. So the point is, should we plan on the war of 4 from last year, the 0 from 2009, or the 1.4 of 2011.

[Guest]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-positional-power-rankings-wrap-up/

 

Fangraphs projections have us at 78 wins.

[Guest]

Clay Davenport projections

 

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

[Sammy Sofa]

REACH FOR THE STARS.

 

Blech.

[Guest]

REACH FOR THE STARS.

 

Blech.

 

FWIW, those Davenport projections have the Astros winning 73 games... so.... bahahaha... yea.

[Sammy Sofa]

REACH FOR THE STARS.

 

Blech.

 

FWIW, those Davenport projections have the Astros winning 73 games... so.... bahahaha... yea.

 

*Stares wearily at season ticket box*

 

It's an investment, it's an investment, it's an investment....

[Hairyducked Idiot]

REACH FOR THE STARS.

 

Blech.

 

FWIW, those Davenport projections have the Astros winning 73 games... so.... bahahaha... yea.

 

*Stares wearily at season ticket box*

 

It's an investment, it's an investment, it's an investment....

 

 

They'll give you first pick of your PSL at New Wrigley in Rosemont.

[Banedon]

Hey, they have us with a 10-win pitcher. So there's that.

 

No starter under 4.00 ERA though.

[neely crenshaw]

If you look honestly 74 wins sounds about right. They have us scoring as many runs as Cincy did last year which seems like a stretch but with the potential trades and injuries 74 looks like a pretty good year. 78 would be a great year for this team.

[Sammy Sofa]

No, it would still suck.

[neely crenshaw]

you gotta know the difference between sh*t and shinola..

 

you have hopefully improved 1 position (of) and at least at the start of the season your starting staff is worse, and your bullpen has one upgrade to the main players(fujikawa) and you are still facing the fact that there will be another sell-off at the deadline, then I would be a 3 games from .500 would be a great year.

[Sammy Sofa]

Why? It's not like increasing your number of wins automatically projects to continued improvement, especially if you have them "selling-off at the deadline."

[neely crenshaw]

I didn't say anything like that or at least I didn't mean it that way. I meant with the collection of talent they have, the injuries they are facing and the potential for a sell-off, 74 wins would be an accomplishment.

I think to get to 78 wins almost every hope/question mark has to go our way-especially now missing garza and baker for a long stretch.

Not saying we should be satisfied or happy but if things continue to go wrong, we could easily be back at 60 wins and that would really suck.

[Guest]

I didn't say anything like that or at least I didn't mean it that way. I meant with the collection of talent they have, the injuries they are facing and the potential for a sell-off, 74 wins would be an accomplishment.

I think to get to 78 wins almost every hope/question mark has to go our way-especially now missing garza and baker for a long stretch.

Not saying we should be satisfied or happy but if things continue to go wrong, we could easily be back at 60 wins and that would really suck.

 

neither of those projections take into account a sell off...

[neely crenshaw]

Well when "we" start talking about wins for the cubs this season, do you think they will be sellers at the deadline?

Just like last year I think it is a fore gone conclusion that any vets that can be moved, will be moved. If healthy Garza is gone, I'm sure they's love to move Marmol, Soriano and any of the pitchers that aren't Samardzija and Jackson.

So like it or not, if that happens it will probably take quite a lot to keep us from pushing 100 losses again.

 

There is absolutely no reason to keep an free agents unless we end up valuing the draft pick more than the trade haul.

[Guest]

Well when "we" start talking about wins for the cubs this season, do you think they will be sellers at the deadline?

Just like last year I think it is a fore gone conclusion that any vets that can be moved, will be moved. If healthy Garza is gone, I'm sure they's love to move Marmol, Soriano and any of the pitchers that aren't Samardzija and Jackson.

So like it or not, if that happens it will probably take quite a lot to keep us from pushing 100 losses again.

 

There is absolutely no reason to keep an free agents unless we end up valuing the draft pick more than the trade haul.

 

What I'm saying is that they wouldn't be projected to win that many games if a sell off were being taken into account.

 

Of course actually reaching those totals would be a pleasant surprise if valuable players were shipped off for a significant portion of the season. The sky is blue.

 

That said, if they were actually good enough to pull that off, they might be good enough to not be sellers to begin with.

[neely crenshaw]

I think if this group is together all year, 74 wins is about right. 78 would mean a whole lot goes right or even better than hoped.

If/when we sell off, we could a drop off (we lost 5 games off our pace last year), although I think we are probably a little closer to being able to fill those spots than we were last year.

 

We look a little better on paper but Dempster and Maholm were absolute studs for us last season. Even though Jackson and others may look better on paper, I don't see anyone matching the stats of those two and we were still on pace to only 66 games when they were dealt.

The only spot(on the staff) we should be better is number 5 starter, and for a struggling offensive team how many more wins does a better #5 get you?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Current BP playoff odds report, which uses PECOTA, has us at 14.6% to make the playoffs and 5.8% to win the division.

[neely crenshaw]

So you're saying there's a chance.....