2012 Orioles one of the "luckiest" teams in recent memory?

[RynoRules]

From the team baseballreference.com page:

 

77-60, 1st place in AL East (Schedule and Results)

View League Standings and Leaders

 

Manager: Buck Showalter (77-60)

Scored 595 runs, Allowed 612 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 67-70

 

I can't remember a team with this big a gap between its "Pythag" and actual records.

[SouthSideRyan]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2007.shtml

 

GFY Chris Young

[jersey cubs fan]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2007.shtml

 

GFY Chris Young

 

bigger win total spread, but not a bigger w% spread.

[RynoRules]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2007.shtml

 

GFY Chris Young

 

bigger win total spread, but not a bigger w% spread.

 

 

Good point though - I forgot about them. It was likely a purposeful burial inasmuch as losing that 1st round series was incredibly painful to me.

 

It would be interesting to compile a list of teams with the biggest spreads in win totals and see whether there are any common threads between them. I have to think that someone at SABR has done it already.

[TheClash]

6 out of the last 9 years a team has been over by 10 or more wins

 

2011 +10 Orioles

2009 +10 Mariners

2008 +12 Angles

2007 +11 Diamondbacks

2005 +11 Diamondbacks

2004 +12 Yankees

[toonsterwu]

They've definitely had a lucky year, but I'm almost certain that their Pyth record for the last 45 games, when they started to catch up with the Yankees, would be similar to their stellar run during this stretch. Part of that was due to the return of Nick Markakis, and part of that was due to the stabilization of the rotation in some respects. When Jason Hammel went down, they got decent-solid performances out of Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman to go with the steady Wei-Yin Chen. And during this stretch, their defense finally settled down. Oh, and Mark Reynolds finally started being useful, offensively and defensively (although that's really only in the last 2 weeks).

 

All that said, this is a very mediocre team. There's a long way to go, but I certainly wouldn't bet against the Orioles making it. And if they make it, they could be a dangerous club - if that bullpen is on, O'Day/Strop/Johnson can really shorten games for them (Strop is the most talented of the bunch, but he's also the most ... Marmol-esque nerve-wracking of the bunch). Add in Matusz as a match-up lefty and that pen will give them a shot if the starters can be decent.

[TruffleShuffle]

well every team that makes the playoffs can be dangerous in a short series. i'd still sure as hell rather play the orioles than just about any other team that might reach the playoffs.

[MembersOnlyJacket]

They have good intangibles.

[sneakypower]

oh look, guess who won another (14 inning) one-run game tonight

[hawkeyecub]

27-7 in one-run games. They've won their last 13 extra inning games. The last time they lost an extra inning game was April 11, their 6th game of the year.

 

It's an incredible amount of luck but there's also something to be said for a ridiculous level of confidence and belief.