Welington Castillo

[davell]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

[Guest]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

 

Yea, assuming those things I don't think it's terrible. Need Soriano to be at or around his 2012 production too, though.

[davell]

True and thats certainly questionable. But, it'd have a chance to work. If it didn't you can sell off Soriano, DeJesus, Garza, maybe another SP at the deadline and still likely get a top 5 pick anyway and add prospects thru trades as well. May help with attendance somewhat too. Even the flexibility I babble on and on about isn't hurt by this type of offseason.

[sneakypower]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

NL average this year is 4.2 runs/game, which we've actually exceeded in September, so we're certainly closer to a league-average offense than we were a few months ago

 

April-June: 3.68

July-Sept: 4.00

 

you really don't want to know what our pitching has been like the last two months, though

[KingCubsFan]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

First base was manned by MVP LaHair those first few months, so I don't see our overall 1B production going up that much even if Rizzo improves (which I fully expect). I think you need Castro to take a big step forward, Soriano to maintain what he's done this year and then someone to have a career year. And that's just to reach middle of the pack.

[Guest]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

First base was manned by MVP LaHair those first few months, so I don't see our overall 1B production going up that much even if Rizzo improves (which I fully expect). I think you need Castro to take a big step forward, Soriano to maintain what he's done this year and then someone to have a career year. And that's just to reach middle of the pack.

As mentioned by someone else (sneaky?), the Cubs are 17th out of 30 in runs scored during September. It isn't that much of a stretch to see how they could be an average offense next year with just minor additions.

[Sammy Sofa]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

First base was manned by MVP LaHair those first few months, so I don't see our overall 1B production going up that much even if Rizzo improves (which I fully expect).

 

LaHair put up insane numbers in the first month.

 

May: .253 .343 .448 .792

June: .231 .286 .400 .686

[Hairyducked Idiot]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

 

It should be, but I feel like there's more downside than upside there. DeJesus and Soriano seem like Marlon Byrd candidates, and I think we've been burned enough assuming decent AAA numbers will translate long-term that I'm not completely sold on Castillo or Valbuena.

[KingCubsFan]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

First base was manned by MVP LaHair those first few months, so I don't see our overall 1B production going up that much even if Rizzo improves (which I fully expect). I think you need Castro to take a big step forward, Soriano to maintain what he's done this year and then someone to have a career year. And that's just to reach middle of the pack.

As mentioned by someone else (sneaky?), the Cubs are 17th out of 30 in runs scored during September. It isn't that much of a stretch to see how they could be an average offense next year with just minor additions.

I've always thought September stats are pretty worthless in general. Basing offseason plans on September performance is misguided.

[KingCubsFan]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

First base was manned by MVP LaHair those first few months, so I don't see our overall 1B production going up that much even if Rizzo improves (which I fully expect).

 

LaHair put up insane numbers in the first month.

 

May: .253 .343 .448 .792

June: .231 .286 .400 .686

Right, but he still had a .900 OPS when Rizzo took over. Overall, I have to think our overall numbers from first base this year aren't going to improve much next year, even with an improvement from Rizzo. Certainly not worth banking on as one of the reasons for an improved offense.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Cubs OPS++ (OPS+ adjusted for position as well) by position:

 

C 88

1b 102

2b 98

3b 80

SS 108

LF 103

CF 85

RF 90

 

It's pretty clear where our problems lie: A couple of black-hole positions and a lack of offensive star power. It's probably too late to change the latter anytime soon, but we have to address the former. Castillo and Valbuena might be the answers to two of those positions, but I wouldn't complain if we got a veteran 3b just to be sure. CF simply has to be addressed properly this offseason if they have any intention of trying to win baseball games.

 

RF is kind of an interesting and surprising trouble spot. DeJesus has been pretty close to average, so if we address CF and he gets everyday playing time in right instead of having to slide over, that should resolve that.

[Guest]

I'm going to go way out on a limb and say Soriano is not repeating his numbers from this year, not even close. Edited September 26, 2012 by CubinNY

[Cubswin11]

I'm going to go way out on a limb and say Soriano is not repeating his number this year, not even close.

Not even close??? He might not go 30+ HR and .820+ OPS, but assuming he plays 150 games +/- again he'd probably get close to where he is now. He's not putting up any real outlier numbers with BABIP, LD%, HR/FB%, BB%, K%, etc. this season, they are all in line with his career norms by 2-3% so significant regression shouldn't be expected if he's healthy. I expect him to at least hit 25HR with a .780-.820 OPS next year.

[Sammy Sofa]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

 

It should be, but I feel like there's more downside than upside there. DeJesus and Soriano seem like Marlon Byrd candidates, and I think we've been burned enough assuming decent AAA numbers will translate long-term that I'm not completely sold on Castillo or Valbuena.

 

Valbuena doesn't have to be anything besides a placeholder.

[Sammy Sofa]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

First base was manned by MVP LaHair those first few months, so I don't see our overall 1B production going up that much even if Rizzo improves (which I fully expect).

 

LaHair put up insane numbers in the first month.

 

May: .253 .343 .448 .792

June: .231 .286 .400 .686

Right, but he still had a .900 OPS when Rizzo took over.

 

And? That was just a holdover from him hitting over 1.200 in April. I don't think we have to worry about the 1.8 WAR player outperforming the -0.2 WAR player.

[Guest]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

First base was manned by MVP LaHair those first few months, so I don't see our overall 1B production going up that much even if Rizzo improves (which I fully expect). I think you need Castro to take a big step forward, Soriano to maintain what he's done this year and then someone to have a career year. And that's just to reach middle of the pack.

As mentioned by someone else (sneaky?), the Cubs are 17th out of 30 in runs scored during September. It isn't that much of a stretch to see how they could be an average offense next year with just minor additions.

I've always thought September stats are pretty worthless in general. Basing offseason plans on September performance is misguided.

 

Are they not playing baseball in September?

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm going to go way out on a limb and say Soriano is not repeating his numbers from this year, not even close.

 

You said 2 years ago that Soriano wasn't worth the league minimum.

[davell]

I would think he means the stats could be distorted somewhat by facing lesser players fairly often during September. As far as a guy we could go after for 3B though, how about Jed Lowrie? No idea how he is defensively at 3B and he's injury-prone. But he's a solid bat, still relatively young and would give us great flexibility when/if Baez comes around in 2015 or so. We'd have a choice to make with Barney or Lowrie, but Lowrie could play 2B too.

[sneakypower]

he can also play SS

 

for Houston

 

the team that just traded for him

 

and likes him

[davell]

he can also play SS

 

for Houston

 

the team that just traded for him

 

and likes him

While true, he was on the block before he got hurt before the deadline. So they don't like him too much evidently.

[KingCubsFan]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

First base was manned by MVP LaHair those first few months, so I don't see our overall 1B production going up that much even if Rizzo improves (which I fully expect).

 

LaHair put up insane numbers in the first month.

 

May: .253 .343 .448 .792

June: .231 .286 .400 .686

Right, but he still had a .900 OPS when Rizzo took over.

 

And? That was just a holdover from him hitting over 1.200 in April. I don't think we have to worry about the 1.8 WAR player outperforming the -0.2 WAR player.

 

My point is that, when looked at during the whole season (LaHair until June 26 and then Rizzo after that), first base was pretty strong for this team, and I don't see much improvement overall. I agree, Rizzo will certainly outperform LaHair next year.

[KingCubsFan]

DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Upton, Castillo, Barney, Valbuena. If Castro and Rizzo show progress and Castillo is slightly better than keague average offensively, I think it's a middle of the pack offense, isn't it?

First base was manned by MVP LaHair those first few months, so I don't see our overall 1B production going up that much even if Rizzo improves (which I fully expect). I think you need Castro to take a big step forward, Soriano to maintain what he's done this year and then someone to have a career year. And that's just to reach middle of the pack.

As mentioned by someone else (sneaky?), the Cubs are 17th out of 30 in runs scored during September. It isn't that much of a stretch to see how they could be an average offense next year with just minor additions.

I've always thought September stats are pretty worthless in general. Basing offseason plans on September performance is misguided.

 

Are they not playing baseball in September?

Picking one month in general to base a conclusion off of is pretty stupid. September just makes it dumber, considering the fact that teams are playing with expanded rosters and have different agendas compared to the rest of the season.