Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-19-12

[Guest]

What's the average age of PCL 3B?

.285/.343/.445, as of yesterday

Weird way to specify an age. I believe the point Elrhino was trying to make is that some of the guys pulling up that average are the Scott Moores of the world having their 7th go round in the PCL. What would be most relevant would be Vitters compared to the median performance of actual prospects.

 

btw - last I checked, .798 is greater than .788. I realize that Vitters is a bit slugging heavy compared to the average, but even adjusting for that he's not below average.

[Elrhino]

Vitters issues have been bad defense, bad patience and unremarkable power. I have pretty good faith his power will improve with age (it already is). There are signs his defense is improving and could reach serviceable. Vitters will likely never be an OBP machine, but he's shown some improvement under the new regime (although in fairness, he had nowhere to go but up).

 

Brett Jackson's weaknesses ... I'm not sure I see much light at the end of the tunnel.

[sneakypower]

What's the average age of PCL 3B?

.285/.343/.445, as of yesterday

Weird way to specify an age. I believe the point Elrhino was trying to make is that some of the guys pulling up that average are the Scott Moores of the world having their 7th go round in the PCL. What would be most relevant would be Vitters compared to the median performance of actual prospects.

 

btw - last I checked, .798 is greater than .788. I realize that Vitters is a bit slugging heavy compared to the average, but even adjusting for that he's not below average.

the offensive value of .285/.343/.445 > that of .280/.330/.468 (marginally)

[Guest]

What's the average age of PCL 3B?

.285/.343/.445, as of yesterday

Weird way to specify an age. I believe the point Elrhino was trying to make is that some of the guys pulling up that average are the Scott Moores of the world having their 7th go round in the PCL. What would be most relevant would be Vitters compared to the median performance of actual prospects.

 

btw - last I checked, .798 is greater than .788. I realize that Vitters is a bit slugging heavy compared to the average, but even adjusting for that he's not below average.

the offensive value of .285/.343/.445 > that of .280/.330/.468 (marginally)

I believe it is fair to say you were being a bit overly dramatic in phrasing it as "below average PCL 3B" without giving additional context there.

[toonsterwu]

Vitters issues have been bad defense, bad patience and unremarkable power. I have pretty good faith his power will improve with age (it already is). There are signs his defense is improving and could reach serviceable. Vitters will likely never be an OBP machine, but he's shown some improvement under the new regime (although in fairness, he had nowhere to go but up).

 

Brett Jackson's weaknesses ... I'm not sure I see much light at the end of the tunnel.

 

I would just point out, though, that Jackson's baseline (floor) is far higher. Even at his worst, he'll take walks, he'll hit HR's, and he'll play an average to above average defensive CF. The issue is whether or not he'll be able to lessen his strikeouts enough, and along with that, whether or not he'll hit for a high enough average to be a quality starter. The baffling thing is that, he really doesn't have an issue that screams, high K rates (he's aggressive, but he's not a hacker, he has a solid understanding of the strike zone, it's not like he has problems reading breaking balls or lacks the bat speed to catch up to average fastballs ... to the best of my understanding, the hole in his swing isn't that bad but others are probably more knowledgeable on that front ... the swing gets long at times, but that happens for a lot of guy ...).

 

I've defended Vitters defense before. It'll never be great, and it might never be average, but for a few years, in his youth, he's probably serviceable at 3rd if he hits enough. Before we get too giddy about the other stuff, he did have a walk percentage similar to this year's in the past (2010 in A+/AA), and his ISOP is not significantly higher than it was last year, in his 2nd go-around in AA. He has some odd splits this year, though, so I don't want to say the power is simply PCL influenced, but .... he is hitting for a lot more power on the road (significantly, significantly, ridiculously significantly better hitter at home this year).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The fact that Jackson and Vitters are having similar seasons is why people are excited about Vitters' improvement and disappointed by Jackson's failures. The two were not remotely comparable coming into the season.

 

As soon as someone shows me a player who struck out this often in the high minors and turned out okay, I'll feel better about Vitters.

 

Michael Saunders is exactly what I'm worried about. He put up decent looking numbers in the minors, but he's got a .282 career OBP in the majors. Jackson is heading down that path, except he's striking out a lot more than Saunders did in the high minors.

[bukie]

As soon as someone shows me a player who struck out this often in the high minors and turned out okay, I'll feel better about Vitters.

 

If a 15.8% K rate is too high, the bar is set a little high.

[davell]

FWIW, Saunders is 264/328/438 this season in over 250 at bats and is still 25.

[Guest]

Vitters issues have been bad defense, bad patience and unremarkable power. I have pretty good faith his power will improve with age (it already is). There are signs his defense is improving and could reach serviceable. Vitters will likely never be an OBP machine, but he's shown some improvement under the new regime (although in fairness, he had nowhere to go but up).

 

Brett Jackson's weaknesses ... I'm not sure I see much light at the end of the tunnel.

 

I would just point out, though, that Jackson's baseline (floor) is far higher. Even at his worst, he'll take walks, he'll hit HR's, and he'll play an average to above average defensive CF. The issue is whether or not he'll be able to lessen his strikeouts enough, and along with that, whether or not he'll hit for a high enough average to be a quality starter. The baffling thing is that, he really doesn't have an issue that screams, high K rates (he's aggressive, but he's not a hacker, he has a solid understanding of the strike zone, it's not like he has problems reading breaking balls or lacks the bat speed to catch up to average fastballs ... to the best of my understanding, the hole in his swing isn't that bad but others are probably more knowledgeable on that front ... the swing gets long at times, but that happens for a lot of guy ...).

 

I've defended Vitters defense before. It'll never be great, and it might never be average, but for a few years, in his youth, he's probably serviceable at 3rd if he hits enough. Before we get too giddy about the other stuff, he did have a walk percentage similar to this year's in the past (2010 in A+/AA), and his ISOP is not significantly higher than it was last year, in his 2nd go-around in AA. He has some odd splits this year, though, so I don't want to say the power is simply PCL influenced, but .... he is hitting for a lot more power on the road (significantly, significantly, ridiculously significantly better hitter at home this year).

I strongly believe Jackson has higher bust potential than Vitters. Therefore, I believe he has a lower floor. You can easily argue a higher likelihood of reaching ceiling for Brett. He has fewer gaps in his game to close than Vitters. But his gap is approaching "fatal flaw" status if his strikeout rate continues to worsen. In his last 10 games, he's struck out 18 of his 36 AB's. SSS and all, but he's been making dreadful contact for much longer than that now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

As soon as someone shows me a player who struck out this often in the high minors and turned out okay, I'll feel better about Vitters.

 

If a 15.8% K rate is too high, the bar is set a little high.

 

Oops, that was meant to be Jackson.

[Guest]

I'll take Jackson's career potential over Vitters' career potential.

 

Jackson plays defense and takes walks.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'll take Jackson's career potential over Vitters' career potential.

 

Jackson plays defense and takes walks.

 

Jackson can't make contact against advanced pitches. He's going to see a few of those in the majors.

[Guest]

Toonster:

 

Vitters home BABIP: .414 (19% LD)

Vitters road BABIP: .192 (14% LD)

 

There's your main driver for the home/road splits.

[Guest]

My concern with Brett (and I've been consistent for a long time now) was my fear that his strikeouts display an inability to handle good breaking balls. In the lower minors, he was able to recognize and lay off the pitch most of the time. As he gets to AAA, he's facing a lot more experienced pitchers that can command the breaking ball within the strike zone. As a result, he can't just sit and wait on the fastball. So now he is whiffing at an alarming rate.

 

I don't know if that's the case . But if it is he has to overcome that in order to even get to the majors, let alone succeed there.

[iowahawkeyes89]

I've always felt Vitters has a higher ceiling than Jackson, but as others have mentioned, Jackson walks and plays defense.

 

Vitters really doesn't do either, which could hold him back from being more than an average player.

 

Also Vitters power, while solid, isn't what I thought it would be when the Cubs drafted him.

 

I'm not sure he has 30 HR power at the major league level

[toonsterwu]

The fact that Jackson and Vitters are having similar seasons is why people are excited about Vitters' improvement and disappointed by Jackson's failures. The two were not remotely comparable coming into the season.

 

I understand that. I have no qualms with the idea that there should be concern on Brett Jackson. I've defended him a lot, but some of his bad stretches have been horrible this year.

 

My only point in the Vitters numbers was that, for all the talk about him improving, those numbers are fairly comparable to what he did a couple years ago between A+/AA. In short, to put it another way, I want to see him kick it up a notch AND maintain his performance.

 

_____

 

The Saunders comparison is an interesting one, but one note is that Saunders never had Brett Jackson's power, despite his ISOP numbers. That's one thing that's sort of forgotten as Brett has moved up the ladder - there once was concern on whether or not he would produce enough power if he was moved to a corner role. That concern really isn't there now. Of course, that doesn't diminish the major concern with Brett.

 

_____

 

Tim - are you sure he's having problems with good breaking balls? Or, let me rephrase, are you sure that's a, for lack of a better term, big issue (he's having problems with a lot of things this year, obviously). I just haven't heard, during his time in the upper levels, that much concern over his ability to recognize and hit good breaking balls (sure, he would K on them, but it was never something that I had heard was a significant issue) as something that would block him (again, talking more about the ... severity of the issue and not whether or not the issue exists).

 

I've heard some swing mechanics issues before, and the swing does get long at times. Couple that with some holes in his swing, and his aggressiveness, that's always what I've attributed the 25-30% K Rate on (and hoped that it would get better as he matured). But this year's been so awful on the K front, with some awful stretches in there.

[TruffleShuffle]

I've heard some swing mechanics issues before, and the swing does get long at times. Couple that with some holes in his swing, and his aggressiveness, that's always what I've attributed the 25-30% K Rate on (and hoped that it would get better as he matured). But this year's been so awful on the K front, with some awful stretches in there.

 

i remember reading - i think this was even before the draft - that there didn't seem to be anything mechanically wrong with his swing. not a slow bat or stepping in the bucket. he just swings and misses a lot, but then he also squares up a lot of balls when he does make contact. seems pretty weird.

[El Duderino]

Seems like a job for a good major league hitting coach.

[Guest]

Tim - are you sure he's having problems with good breaking balls? Or, let me rephrase, are you sure that's a, for lack of a better term, big issue (he's having problems with a lot of things this year, obviously). I just haven't heard, during his time in the upper levels, that much concern over his ability to recognize and hit good breaking balls (sure, he would K on them, but it was never something that I had heard was a significant issue) as something that would block him (again, talking more about the ... severity of the issue and not whether or not the issue exists).

 

I've heard some swing mechanics issues before, and the swing does get long at times. Couple that with some holes in his swing, and his aggressiveness, that's always what I've attributed the 25-30% K Rate on (and hoped that it would get better as he matured). But this year's been so awful on the K front, with some awful stretches in there.

Nope. I'm not sure about that. It's just been a theory that has been consistent with the data.

[Guest]

Seems like a job for a good major league hitting coach.

It really seems like something that's better to iron out in the minors.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

My only point in the Vitters numbers was that, for all the talk about him improving, those numbers are fairly comparable to what he did a couple years ago between A+/AA. In short, to put it another way, I want to see him kick it up a notch AND maintain his performance.

 

Well sure, we'd all like that.

 

But if he can keep maintaining his performance at higher and higher levels, that's alright too. Because there's only one more level to go.

[toonsterwu]

I've heard some swing mechanics issues before, and the swing does get long at times. Couple that with some holes in his swing, and his aggressiveness, that's always what I've attributed the 25-30% K Rate on (and hoped that it would get better as he matured). But this year's been so awful on the K front, with some awful stretches in there.

 

i remember reading - i think this was even before the draft - that there didn't seem to be anything mechanically wrong with his swing. not a slow bat or stepping in the bucket. he just swings and misses a lot, but then he also squares up a lot of balls when he does make contact. seems pretty weird.

 

I'm honestly baffled with Brett Jackson. I'm still a fan, but honestly, there's been guys with bigger issues than Brett that struck out less than Brett. It's odd, you'd think for such an ... intriguing prospect ... that someone more knowledgeable would've done some swing analysis on him. There just doesn't seem to be any major issue with Brett, unless he's having problems with breaking balls ... it seems to be a lot of small issues lumping together into a gigantic mass of bad this year.

[toonsterwu]

Seems like a job for a good major league hitting coach.

 

It sounds like a good job for a minor league hitting coordinator to deal with. Early in the year, it sounded like they (more likely the hitting coach in AAA and Brett as I don't recall hearing about Beyers spending time with Brett) were working on stuff, but this is a 2nd stretch of bad for him.

[mul21]

I've heard some swing mechanics issues before, and the swing does get long at times. Couple that with some holes in his swing, and his aggressiveness, that's always what I've attributed the 25-30% K Rate on (and hoped that it would get better as he matured). But this year's been so awful on the K front, with some awful stretches in there.

 

i remember reading - i think this was even before the draft - that there didn't seem to be anything mechanically wrong with his swing. not a slow bat or stepping in the bucket. he just swings and misses a lot, but then he also squares up a lot of balls when he does make contact. seems pretty weird.

 

I'm honestly baffled with Brett Jackson. I'm still a fan, but honestly, there's been guys with bigger issues than Brett that struck out less than Brett. It's odd, you'd think for such an ... intriguing prospect ... that someone more knowledgeable would've done some swing analysis on him. There just doesn't seem to be any major issue with Brett, unless he's having problems with breaking balls ... it seems to be a lot of small issues lumping together into a gigantic mass of bad this year.

 

Somebody mentioned Lasik the other day. I'm beginning to wonder if there might be something to the thought of a vision issue.