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Ian Stewart to the DL

El Duderino
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Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
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Wait, you can't judge a trade in hindsight or blame a GM for how a trade turns out? You wanna think about that one again?

 

Process >>>>>>>>> Outcome

 

I understand the idea behind it, but I think this sort of mentality is a little overrated with regards to sports trades.

 

Baseball players aren't weighted RNGs where unexpected results are entirely due to variance. It is a GM's job to predict what is going to happen and to do it better than his counterparts. The outcome is a data point that informs us on the quality of the process.

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WrigleyField 22 Knoxville Smokies

WrigleyField 22

Old-Timey Member
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Wait, you can't judge a trade in hindsight or blame a GM for how a trade turns out? You wanna think about that one again?

 

Process >>>>>>>>> Outcome

 

Oh, that's right. when you evaluate a process, you entirely ignore the outcome. don't collect information about the outcome b/c that can't inform your process evaluation.

Who said its about ignoring the outcome. You place that outcome along with the vast set of outcomes from similar scenarios and continue to go with whatever the results say is the best process.

 

I'm willing to bet when you stack this trade against all the similair trades like it, the results say this type of trade is at worst neutral, even if this one flopped.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Tracer Bullet Knoxville Smokies

Tracer Bullet

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Wait, you can't judge a trade in hindsight or blame a GM for how a trade turns out? You wanna think about that one again?

 

Process >>>>>>>>> Outcome

 

Oh, that's right. when you evaluate a process, you entirely ignore the outcome. don't collect information about the outcome b/c that can't inform your process evaluation.

Who said its about ignoring the outcome. You place that outcome along with the vast set of outcomes from similar scenarios and continue to go with whatever the results say is the best process.

 

I'm willing to bet when you stack this trade against all the similair trades like it, the results say this type of trade is at worst neutral, even if this one flopped.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

WSR did. And when I asserted that it was ridiculous to not judge GMs in part based on the outcomes of their trades, David posted his little comparison above. So WSR and David stated or strongly implied that you ignore outcomes.

XZero771679666304 Knoxville Smokies

XZero771679666304

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Colvin had no future with the Cubs. If he hadn't been traded, he'd be on the bench or in Iowa, and probably would be next year as well. On top of that, he's benefiting from a platoon, Coors and an outlier of a babip.

 

Given his 2011, Ian Stewart was about as good a return as could have been expected, and there's still an outside chance he'll be on the team next year. The trade doesn't look so hot right now (due in large part to Stewart's wrist), but I'm not losing a nanosecond of sleep over it.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Wait, you can't judge a trade in hindsight or blame a GM for how a trade turns out? You wanna think about that one again?

 

Process >>>>>>>>> Outcome

 

Oh, that's right. when you evaluate a process, you entirely ignore the outcome. don't collect information about the outcome b/c that can't inform your process evaluation.

 

Of course it can, but that's now how 99% of people use hindsight to judge moves.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Can? It does. Entirely ignoring the results in the context of a baseball trade is stupid.

 

You said, "can't," sarcastically, so I used the word, "can." You're reading far too much into that.

Tracer Bullet Knoxville Smokies

Tracer Bullet

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Can? It does. Entirely ignoring the results in the context of a baseball trade is stupid.

 

You said, "can't," sarcastically, so I used the word, "can." You're reading far too much into that.

 

You said "process >>>> outcome" when I attacked wsr's post about using trades to evaluate GMs. Your post leads directly to the conclusions I'm inferring. So if you think otherwise, why not just state what you think?

Tracer Bullet Knoxville Smokies

Tracer Bullet

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Ha. N&G thinks an argument isn't worthy of his time. Never thought I'd see the day.

 

I thought it was pretty well accepted that part of an evaluation of a GM includes evaluating trades after the fact. David seems to have the contrary view. I guess I'm not sure why this isn't a valuable discussion to have on the board.

Little Slide Rooter MVP

Little Slide Rooter

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Can? It does. Entirely ignoring the results in the context of a baseball trade is stupid.

 

You said, "can't," sarcastically, so I used the word, "can." You're reading far too much into that.

 

You said "process >>>> outcome" when I attacked wsr's post about using trades to evaluate GMs. Your post leads directly to the conclusions I'm inferring. So if you think otherwise, why not just state what you think?

 

I should have been more specific. Even if Tyler Colvin turns into Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Stewart Blake DeWitt, it will be hard to blame Theo for the trade. Had it been made sometime in mid 2010, that would be different.

 

It's really about knowing when to move on from a player. A lot of people blame Hendry for not trading Patterson and Pie until it was too late. Well, had we waited another year on Colvin, and he gave us a follow up of last, that probably would have qualified as too late.

 

in 2005, a lot of people were starting to said that the Dontrelle/Clement trade was the worst thing that the Cubs did since Lou Brock, but they sure didn't mind it in 2002-2004, and it's pretty much forgotten now.

Little Slide Rooter MVP

Little Slide Rooter

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
how long are you gonna hold out?

 

NOW are we ready to admit this was a [expletive] [expletive] [expletive] awful trade?

 

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:8137520

 

LEADING ALL PLAYERS in slugging % over the last 6 weeks

This is Colvin's line away from Coors Field:

 

.273 .288 .416 .703

 

867 road ops, now, btw

 

eat your heart out ian lovers (but mostly nuts and gum)

 

I'll admit that Colvin is better than people seem to be willing to admit. I won't admit that it was an awful trade, because nobody could have predicted the results. I've always maintained the stance that Colvin can be a good platoon guy or 4th outfielder, but not what he's done so far this season. And I doubt he sustains it. As for Stewart, he still plays a premium position well, and I really hope that they render him a contract in hopes that when fully healed, he can be a productive player or better.

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

What the hell is an "ian lover?"

 

And no, it's basically impossible for this to be an awful trade, because we're talking about Ian Stewart and Tyler Colvin.

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Guys, he raised his away OPS 164 points in three days (a big chunk of which is from him going 3-4 with 2 HR in a single game where Stephen Strasburg was the starter); clearly that's a trump card that cannot be argued against in any way, shape or form.

 

Maybe he and LaHair can compare their "Leading the NL/MLB in OPS for several weeks" certificates and give each other high fives.

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