Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-26-12

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I guess the reason there is hope for some of these untouted prospects is that when it comes to later round picks turned stars, aside from fans of their team that follow the minors closely, most fans never hear of them until they reach top 100 status. For example, Tommy Hanson was a 22nd rounder in 2006, and in 2009, he debut as the 4th overall prospect. I'm just saying, it's hard to tell where guys like that come from. Why can't it be one of our guys?

 

If you want to find the next Tommy Hanson (or the #3 starter version of a late round pick) you don't start with a 23 year old in High A who might have an above average slider and who might have hit the absolutely bare minimum it takes to call a fastball a mid 90's fastball. At least get some height and projection on him...Or at least shoot for a lefty if you're doing any of the above don'ts...

Edited May 27, 2012 by PriortoTheoIhadWood

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I don't think I ever said Concepcion was a nobody. Wait, I'm positive about that actually. He was the top Cuban pitcher coming over this offseason, with Omar Luis and Armando Rivero fairly close behind. Neither who has signed yet. Saying we wanted to do as much as possible to entice Soler isn't any reach either, from my standpoint. Everyone thought we overpaid on Concepcion. The question becomes did we do it to help with Soler or did we just miss(if things don't turn around obviously)? I'm sure we liked him, but it's possible that IF he is/was the key to getting Soler, we'd look at his pricetag a bit differently, if we think of Soler as a franchise type talent.

 

OK, once again, whether I quoted you to your exact word or not...You do not hand out a 6 million dollar contract to an IFA in the hopes that this lures another, better IFA. It's a big reach from my standpoint, and if that played into this signing at all it was only in the tiniest way.

 

Again, what about this FO or ownership groups ACTIONS make you think this idea makes significant sense? WHY would Concepcion be...your exact words here...THE key to getting Soler?

 

Is it possible...and I know I'm going out on a limb here...that a kid who was pitching in the Cuban pros at the ripe age of 18...and doing well...just might have some talent that the Cubs think they can mine and make shine? Even despite the not-even-2-months-into-his-career-in-American reports, which changed pretty damn quickly from before he signed anyway?

[Tryptamine]

Having some problems finding Rizzo's minor league splits from last year. Anyone know where to find them? I checked milb,baseballreference and thebaseballcube with no luck.

[toonsterwu]

Did you even read my entire comment on that one? Here

 

Phrasing it as a question simply made it the passive aggressive form of attack I think it was intended to be. Personally...and this is just me...I'm highly unlikeable...I think you've been passive aggressively attacking Concepcion in this therad since I stated my distaste for Loosen even being said to have the ceiling of a mid-rotation guy. I'm highly unlikeable so maybe I'm just imagining it...but that's totally how it reads to me.

 

Then you are simply reading something that isn't there, and like you said, imagining something. Most of the time, I am fairly clear about what I am talking about. I may be wrong a lot, but I try to be clear on what I say. I don't get too emotional on sports forums - if you think I am passive aggressive now, it's more frustration with the fact that you didn't really read what I wrote, and assumed something was there that wasn't. Part of the reason I write so much is so that there won't be a misunderstanding on what I am saying. Doesn't always happen, and mistakes are made, but I've been fairly clear on several things in this thread

 

a) I was talking about how scouts define a mid-rotation starter

b) I never stated Loosen had a higher ceiling. In fact, early on in this thread, I said Concepcion probably had the higher ceiling. Furthermore, even as I argued the positives of Loosen, I also added that Concepcion had the higher ceiling, just that I didn't think the gap was that wide.

c) I was not saying I expect them to reach the bigs, to dominate the upper levels, or whatever. Again ... just talking purely on scouting reports out there right now. Furthermore, I specifically stated we have to wait and see how Loosen's stuff plays up in AA.

 

_____

 

I've never actually been against the Concepcion signing either. I wasn't in love with it, but from the Transactions thread, I wrote

 

Really dislike the MLB aspect to the deal, but understand it somewhat.

 

from the minor league forum on BA and BP top prospects, I wrote

 

My guess is that Concepcion comes in in the 7/8 spot on the BA list. I'd probably put him behind Dillon Maples personally, so ... for me, at best, probably borderline top 10, but really, we sort of have to wait and see what we really have with the guy, since there seems to be slightly differing reports out there about him. Could see a case for him as high as 5 if the ceiling is as good as some suggest.

 

Makes me think of the Jin-Yeong Kim signing. A high dollar signing of a polished kid whose ceiling was questionable, but had youth on his side. Here's hoping this one starts better than the Kim signing, particularly since it's a Major League deal.

 

If I don't like something, I'm much more explicit about it. Off the top, from recent vintage, from the beginning, I said I wasn't as high on Torreyes. I also didn't love Travis Wood, and I made that clear (although, as a return for Sean Marshall, this trade was fine ... and I could be very wrong on that one, a lot of glowy stuff on Travis Wood these days ... another guy with a mid-rotation ceiling).

_____

 

Again, you are reading something that isn't there. If I have an issue in this thread, it's that you are putting words in my mouth that I never stated at all. If you want to question what I've heard, fair game. If you want to question whether or not minor league radar guns are accurate, fair game. But I was fairly specific about what I was discussing in this thread, and where we diverged, for lack of a better term.

[davell]

Concepcion and Soler are supposedly very tight. Balaguert as well, from playing on the Junior National Team together. Again, I'm not saying we didn't see value in Concepcion. But I can certainly see us wanting to lock him down ASAP so other teams couldn't use him to get Soler as well, IF this is a buddy/buddy deal. And I could see this FO looking at Soler as a must get and if it meant paying a couple mill more for Concepcion, it's still well worth it in the grand scheme of things, especially in a time frame when our payroll is down to begin with. Because I definitely see our FO doing whatever they have to in order to get any edge they can in a market that is shady as all hell. And if overpaying a guy somewhat helps you land a franchise guy, it's just the price of doing business in a shady market.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Concepcion and Soler are supposedly very tight. Balaguert as well, from playing on the Junior National Team together. Again, I'm not saying we didn't see value in Concepcion. But I can certainly see us wanting to lock him down ASAP so other teams couldn't use him to get Soler as well, IF this is a buddy/buddy deal. And I could see this FO looking at Soler as a must get and if it meant paying a couple mill more for Concepcion, it's still well worth it in the grand scheme of things, especially in a time frame when our payroll is down to begin with. Because I definitely see our FO doing whatever they have to in order to get any edge they can in a market that is shady as all hell. And if overpaying a guy somewhat helps you land a franchise guy, it's just the price of doing business in a shady market.

 

No, that's almost exactly what you're saying. I've heard they're all friends as well, and I still don't see that being a legit reason to pay someone 6 million dollars.

 

Toonster, I only said I was imagining it to be nice. I shouldn't have because it gave you an easy out. I think that's basically what you've been doing since I disagreed completely on Matt Loosen.

 

Anyway:

 

a) It's a loose definition on what scouts want out of a #3, and a whole HELL of a lot more goes into it than that. Matt Loosen does not...I repeat...does not...profile as a #3 except on an absolute bottom rung rotation.

 

b) Maybe I missed it, you actually said they had a similar ceiling and Concepcion was more interesting. One of those is something I can agree with.

 

c) No scouting report out there would say Matt Loosen has the ceiling of a #3 starter.

Edited May 27, 2012 by PriortoTheoIhadWood

[Vanilla Ice]

Concepcion and Soler are supposedly very tight. Balaguert as well, from playing on the Junior National Team together. Again, I'm not saying we didn't see value in Concepcion. But I can certainly see us wanting to lock him down ASAP so other teams couldn't use him to get Soler as well, IF this is a buddy/buddy deal. And I could see this FO looking at Soler as a must get and if it meant paying a couple mill more for Concepcion, it's still well worth it in the grand scheme of things, especially in a time frame when our payroll is down to begin with. Because I definitely see our FO doing whatever they have to in order to get any edge they can in a market that is shady as all hell. And if overpaying a guy somewhat helps you land a franchise guy, it's just the price of doing business in a shady market.

 

No, that's almost exactly what you're saying. I've heard they're all friends as well, and I still don't see that being a legit reason to pay someone 6 million dollars.

I think he's saying that the Cubs might have seen like 4 million dollars in value on Concepcion, but they thought that the extra 3 million was worth it because of his bond with Soler. right, davell?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Concepcion and Soler are supposedly very tight. Balaguert as well, from playing on the Junior National Team together. Again, I'm not saying we didn't see value in Concepcion. But I can certainly see us wanting to lock him down ASAP so other teams couldn't use him to get Soler as well, IF this is a buddy/buddy deal. And I could see this FO looking at Soler as a must get and if it meant paying a couple mill more for Concepcion, it's still well worth it in the grand scheme of things, especially in a time frame when our payroll is down to begin with. Because I definitely see our FO doing whatever they have to in order to get any edge they can in a market that is shady as all hell. And if overpaying a guy somewhat helps you land a franchise guy, it's just the price of doing business in a shady market.

 

No, that's almost exactly what you're saying. I've heard they're all friends as well, and I still don't see that being a legit reason to pay someone 6 million dollars.

 

3 cheers for pretending to care what the portly cello player has to say in an effort to get close to her hot friend.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Concepcion and Soler are supposedly very tight. Balaguert as well, from playing on the Junior National Team together. Again, I'm not saying we didn't see value in Concepcion. But I can certainly see us wanting to lock him down ASAP so other teams couldn't use him to get Soler as well, IF this is a buddy/buddy deal. And I could see this FO looking at Soler as a must get and if it meant paying a couple mill more for Concepcion, it's still well worth it in the grand scheme of things, especially in a time frame when our payroll is down to begin with. Because I definitely see our FO doing whatever they have to in order to get any edge they can in a market that is shady as all hell. And if overpaying a guy somewhat helps you land a franchise guy, it's just the price of doing business in a shady market.

 

No, that's almost exactly what you're saying. I've heard they're all friends as well, and I still don't see that being a legit reason to pay someone 6 million dollars.

I think he's saying that the Cubs might have seen like 4 million dollars in value on Concepcion, but they thought that the extra 3 million was worth it because of his bond with Soler. right, davell?

 

That's alot of value in an IFA, which speaks of talent. EVEN THEN I find it incredibly had to buy from this particular FO and ownership group...even if it does miss in the long run.

[davell]

To me, my thinking is this FO will do whatever it takes to gain an advantage in a very shady market, if it improves their chances of landing an impact talent like Soler. I've asked KG, Badler, probably others I can't remember, what kind of contract Concepcion should have gotten. They both said 2.5 or so. I liked the signing when we got him and will give him a chance. But I am not happy with the current results, but do acknowledge it's early and he may be struggling with some extracurricular stuff.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Actually reading a comment from minorleagueball on Hunter Virant made me draw some parallels to Concepcion.

 

The description of Virant:

 

Athletic and very projectable (6’4", 175 lb) southpaw. FB sits 87-91 mph, but has a shot at adding more obviously. Secondaries (CB, CH) very unrefined but show potential.

 

http://mobile.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/26/3045530/2012-minor-league-ball-community-mock-draft-after-action-discussion

 

Now obviously adjustments have to be made...everyone's technical so the velocity is higher obviously than what Concepcion has been so far...Virant is also taller, but 6'2 is fine...but beyond that I think this is more of the idea behind Concepcion...a young, athletic, malleable lefty with some of the raw tools to be a LHSP. Yes, there's weird mechanics (for both of them, as Virant is nowhere near polished with his) and the stuff isn't fully developed yet. That's to b expected of young pitchers, particularly an IFA lefty and a kid who's even younger in the pitcihng game than most his age (Virant). Concepcion is not a ruse to lure his friend by paying him 6 million dollars. Highly touted Cuban pitchers and players also have a strong track record, which IS a real advantage in taking that kind of financial dive into a prospect.

Edited May 27, 2012 by PriortoTheoIhadWood

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

To me, my thinking is this FO will do whatever it takes to gain an advantage in a very shady market, if it improves their chances of landing an impact talent like Soler. I've asked KG, Badler, probably others I can't remember, what kind of contract Concepcion should have gotten. They both said 2.5 or so. I liked the signing when we got him and will give him a chance. But I am not happy with the current results, but do acknowledge it's early and he may be struggling with some extracurricular stuff.

 

1. No FO pays an amatuer a couple of extra million to gain an advantage on getting his friend. If it helps? That's nice. It's not a deciding factor to pay someone 6 million dollars, and most definitely not the kind of advantage I see this FO is looking for or even consider a real advantage.

 

2. You asked those guys for their opinion and they gave it to you. It has less significance than you want to give it. We've all read the same stuff anyway...

 

Soler is just as much an unknown as Concepcion. There's like 1 picture out there between the two of them. What you're saying and then backtracking from safely is not as big a factor as you keep trying to make it seem it was. Doy we're all going to give Concepcion time because he's already here and there's nothing else possible to do.

[davell]

Look man, this is the last year of being able to sign IFA uncapped. If you don't think this FO would give a guy more money, if it helps them get an impact guy as well, in the last year it's possible to spend big, then I don't have any clue what else to say.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Look man, this is the last year of being able to sign IFA uncapped. If you don't think this FO would give a guy more money, if it helps them get an impact guy as well, in the last year it's possible to spend big, then I don't have any clue what else to say.

 

You can say that you're basing this totally off of this being an uncapped IFA year and them being said to be friends? Or that it's weak spin to more than double what the experts say he "should" have gotten just to land his friend? What does Soler get out of this, if he's the real target? The knowledge that the Cubs will pay his friends well to have him around? How much did this improve the odds of the Cubs signing Soler, who they've been amongst the favorites for the whole time anyway?

 

If you think you're the one who should be lost for words in this argument then...well then I don't have any clue what else to say. Yes, I do actually...It's a swiss cheese argument for why they'd go out and give a 6 million dollar deal to a kid who's been playing pro ball in his country for 2 years yet only just turned twenty. Top pitchers from the Cuban pros (who again have a good track record coming to the majors) have gotten more than that easy in recent history for Jah's sake...easily explained by the fact that he needs more minor league time than all of them...therefore carrying the most risk...therefore not getting the big money guys like Contreras, the Hernandez brothers, or Chapman have gotten (and I'm sure I'm forgetting someone).

[Guest]

Did you even read my first comment? I said both seem like end of the rotation arms, with mid-rotation ceilings? How is that giving Concepcion a mini-leash? Hell ... I thought that was awfully nice of me, what with

 

a) Reports that his mechanics are horrible

b) Reports that he has no feel on his secondary stuff

c) Reports that his fastball is only topping out at 90 ... and sits in the upper 80;s

 

Really, how the heck do you read what I typed above as giving Concepcion a mini-leash compared to giving Loosen a big pat on the back? Read the first dang comment I typed ... I said I thought both were end of the rotation types with mid-rotation ceilings.

 

Concepcion's pedigree, which I can pretty much trust to be real, blows Loosen's out of the water. To me, this kind of stuff matters. It matters alot. The fact that you're even putting them on the same plane is ridiculous to me.

 

I'd like the reports of his mechanics being terrible...And again, reports were mighty positive about him until the second he inked that contract with the Cubs...so pardon me if I'm leery of what is essentially noise coming out of the first two months of his American pro career...noise from people who've been knocking his signing since he got the money, and who suddenly forgot that during the process there were reports of hitting 92-93...as a projectable teenager with no real weight training or MLB conditioning program of any kind...already holding his own as a pro in a county that is pretty good at playing baseball. All of a sudden he's getting money for the sake of spending money...and you wonder why I'm talking about a mini-leash? Again, really?

 

The Concepcion scouting reports were decidedly mediocre BEFORE he signed, not just after he got a surprisingly big contract. Multiple scouting reports indicate he primarily threw in the upper 80s for the last year, has concerns about his mechanics and multiple scouts projected him as a #5 starter. This was from Ben Badler, before Concepcion signed with the Cubs:

 

Baseball America[/url]"]Concepcion is a slender 6-foot-2 with long arms, sloped shoulders and an athletic, wiry build that could have some projection remaining. He has advanced feel for pitching for his age and has shown the ability to pitch with his fastball to both sides of the plate, though he doesn't have the stuff to miss many bats. At times his fastball ranges from 88-92 mph, though some scouts have said they've seen him dip to 86-90 mph at times.

 

Concepcion has had success in Cuba by being able to change speeds to keep hitters off balance. Some scouts like Concepcion's mid-70s curveball, which shows good depth at times, but others say it gets loopy. He throws slightly across his body, which provides him with a little deception, but it's a concern for some scouts who think his mechanics hamper his ability to get to the front side of his delivery and show consistency with his breaking ball. Concepcion also throws a changeup (some scouts have called it a splitter), though like many young pitchers it's still a work in progress.

 

While some scouts view Concepcion's upside as a No. 5 starter, others see a bit more, though with his present stuff it's hard to project more than a back-end starter for now. Concepcion, who became a free agent earlier this month, would likely begin his career at one of the Class A levels.

 

Badler and Goldstein have stuck to their guns on their evaluation of him for some time, before and after he signed.

[davell]

I have no clue whether what I'm saying is FACT. Neither do you. I said it's been in the back of my mind since the signing. We supposedly reached an agreement(or may still have one, for all I know) with Soler. With a low payroll and the need to add an impact player, it's certainly conceivable we overpaid Concepcion, to get him in tow, to get Soler to agree quickly as well. Instead of having other teams possibly drive Soler's price up later on. But in the last uncapped year, I definitely see this FO doing whatever it takes to add as much young talent as possible. Overpaying, if it has to.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I have no clue whether what I'm saying is FACT. Neither do you. I said it's been in the back of my mind since the signing. We supposedly reached an agreement(or may still have one, for all I know) with Soler. With a low payroll and the need to add an impact player, it's certainly conceivable we overpaid Concepcion, to get him in tow, to get Soler to agree quickly as well. Instead of having other teams possibly drive Soler's price up later on. But in the last uncapped year, I definitely see this FO doing whatever it takes to add as much young talent as possible. Overpaying, if it has to.

 

Yes, I can't disprove the thing you can't prove, therefore it's possible they paid a guy 6 million to eventually sign his friend. Was that 6 million one lump sum to be paid this year and count towards ML payroll?

Edited May 27, 2012 by PriortoTheoIhadWood

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

The Concepcion scouting reports were decidedly mediocre BEFORE he signed, not just after he got a surprisingly big contract. Multiple scouting reports indicate he primarily threw in the upper 80s for the last year, has concerns about his mechanics and multiple scouts projected him as a #5 starter. This was from Ben Badler, before Concepcion signed with the Cubs:

 

Baseball America[/url]"]Concepcion is a slender 6-foot-2 with long arms, sloped shoulders and an athletic, wiry build that could have some projection remaining. He has advanced feel for pitching for his age and has shown the ability to pitch with his fastball to both sides of the plate, though he doesn't have the stuff to miss many bats. At times his fastball ranges from 88-92 mph, though some scouts have said they've seen him dip to 86-90 mph at times.

 

Concepcion has had success in Cuba by being able to change speeds to keep hitters off balance. Some scouts like Concepcion's mid-70s curveball, which shows good depth at times, but others say it gets loopy. He throws slightly across his body, which provides him with a little deception, but it's a concern for some scouts who think his mechanics hamper his ability to get to the front side of his delivery and show consistency with his breaking ball. Concepcion also throws a changeup (some scouts have called it a splitter), though like many young pitchers it's still a work in progress.

 

While some scouts view Concepcion's upside as a No. 5 starter, others see a bit more, though with his present stuff it's hard to project more than a back-end starter for now. Concepcion, who became a free agent earlier this month, would likely begin his career at one of the Class A levels.

 

Badler and Goldstein have stuck to their guns on their evaluation of him for some time, before and after he signed.

 

Decidedly might have been the wrong word for that scouting report....Sometimes his fastball is fine, sometimes it's not...some like his curve, sometimes they don't....could have projection remaining but lets not commit to that...mechanics are off (in a 20 year old IFA? Nooo!)...some say he has 5 starter upside...others see a bit more...Then they finish off with saying he'll start off in Class A...a developmental level...For a lefty...a young lefty at that that is well acknowledged to still need coaching up/development (and supposedly has the aptitude to take well to it) the good parts of that scouting report are not mediocre.

 

I remember when this was about Matt Loosen. I miss that.

[Guest]

Marco Hernandez 2/3 with a triple and home run today. Up to .209/.248/.301.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Young Vitters: .266/.316/.430 11 2Bs/ 5 HRs/ 10 BBs/ 30 Ks

 

OPS at 1.082 in his last ten.

[davell]

I have no clue whether what I'm saying is FACT. Neither do you. I said it's been in the back of my mind since the signing. We supposedly reached an agreement(or may still have one, for all I know) with Soler. With a low payroll and the need to add an impact player, it's certainly conceivable we overpaid Concepcion, to get him in tow, to get Soler to agree quickly as well. Instead of having other teams possibly drive Soler's price up later on. But in the last uncapped year, I definitely see this FO doing whatever it takes to add as much young talent as possible. Overpaying, if it has to.

 

Yes, I can't disprove the thing you can't prove, therefore it's possible they paid a guy 6 million to eventually sign his friend. Was that 6 million one lump sum to be paid this year and count towards ML payroll?

I'm too tired to look up his contract. Can't hang with you CST zoners. I'm pretty sure he got a 3 mill bonus and has 3 mill spread out over 6 years. Not 100% on this though.

[davell]

Marco Hernandez 2/3 with a triple and home run today. Up to .209/.248/.301.

It's going to suck if he's the odd man out with Baez coming. DeVoss has 2nd most likely. Maybe Darvill gets the hook. His offensive line isn't special obviously, but I noticed tonight he already has NINETEEN errors. Holy [expletive].

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I have no clue whether what I'm saying is FACT. Neither do you. I said it's been in the back of my mind since the signing. We supposedly reached an agreement(or may still have one, for all I know) with Soler. With a low payroll and the need to add an impact player, it's certainly conceivable we overpaid Concepcion, to get him in tow, to get Soler to agree quickly as well. Instead of having other teams possibly drive Soler's price up later on. But in the last uncapped year, I definitely see this FO doing whatever it takes to add as much young talent as possible. Overpaying, if it has to.

 

Yes, I can't disprove the thing you can't prove, therefore it's possible they paid a guy 6 million to eventually sign his friend. Was that 6 million one lump sum to be paid this year and count towards ML payroll?

I'm too tired to look up his contract. Can't hang with you CST zoners. I'm pretty sure he got a 3 mill bonus and has 3 mill spread out over 6 years. Not 100% on this though.

 

You're being intentionally literal?

 

I'm Eastern time zone!

[Tryptamine]

Marco Hernandez 2/3 with a triple and home run today. Up to .209/.248/.301.

 

His stat line at the end of the year isn't going to be pretty, but I'm happy with the progress recently.

[craig]

toonster, thanks for update on Loosen's stuff. I hadn't given him a thought entering this season, but he's been really good after his DL. So, what was his injury that kept him out for 17 days in April?

 

He's been 31K/9BB/31IP/19H, a WHIP under 1. Those are very good numbers. 15K/1BB over his last two starts. Probably flukey and all that, and non-sustainable. But if he can/does sustain that, he sounbds pretty interesting. If he's really consistantly 89-92, and sometimes 93-94, that's not too slow to be good, if you're locating that and obviously dependingon the movement. A well-controled 90-94 fastball and a good slider can get a guy pretty far.