Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-21-12

[toonsterwu]

Almost 2 pages of discussion, which is awesome obviously, Jensen threw 5.1, gave up 3 hits, two runs(both earned) 3 walks and struck out 4. Not much on the hitting side. Zapata was 1-1 with 3 walks and 2 steals.

 

Zapata's awful young. I would like to see him in CF a bit more, as he has the speed, and I think he has the better arm, although I don't recall for certain right now. (that said, I'd like to see Taiwan Easterling in CF a bit more as well).

 

LIke the fact that Jensen went 7:4 GO/FO today. He's going through the learning phase, where teams are adjusting to him as they get a better book on him. I don't expect him to be a high strikeout guy if he sticks as a starter, but , but if he can get some groundballs mixed in with some strikeouts, that'd be nice.

 

Still curious what is going on with Liria. I know there were definite reports of him topping out in the mid-90's last year. Wonder what he's at this year.

[toonsterwu]

 

Put the quotes in because I wasn't sure what you meant by ultimate ceiling his this case, and ceiling is subjective to what one sees.

 

I think you could make a case that, tools wise, Ha has the best defensive tools of the CF's in our full-season affiliates (anyone ... but mainly Jackson/Szczur/Chen, but Silva could be thrown in there, along with Easterling). He has the speed/athleticism to track down balls, and the arm strength that Jackson/Szczur lacks. The issue is consistency with routes/reads/etceteras ... BUT he hasn't had that much work in CF and didn't start off in CF for us. Can he learn it? Don't know ... but the tools are there.

 

I noted this above ... but there were folks that felt he was an elite defensive CF last year. Do I think he'll be an elite CF? I don't know, but like I said elsewhere, if Szczur is ready, even if Ha is better defensively, you give Szczur the run with it in CF because he looks capable of filling a role in the majors quicker than Ha.

 

I've seen Ha a couple times and I have to disagree. Routes and reads are part of CF defensive tools, and he's not that good there with that stuff. He's also not as fast as most of those guys.

 

He does probably have the best OF arm in the system, hence my RF projection. Szczur would get CF over Ha because he's better in CF than Ha is.

 

My personal take, leaving aside what scouts and others have said, having seen him in both Daytona and Tennessee last year, is that he can play CF. I think he has similar, if not better, range than Szczur (Szczur's pure speed was always something, IMO, that was over-hyped ... he had baseball speed, which is as much a combination of speed and quickness, along with instincts, but overall, athletically, I've always felt what Szczur offered was a combination of speed and quickness/agility), but the fact that he isn't great reading balls or taking routes yet hampers the effectiveness of his range. I think both guys have borderline plus range in CF. This is off watching them ... not with a stopwatch ... so maybe stopwatch times say something different. In terms of range, what I think Szczur has on Ha is better instincts and recognition ... but he's also played CF far longer than Ha (unless I'm mistaken, he played CF in college as well).

 

As a side note, I'll be honest, I find it mildly intriguing that you defended Raley on account of the fact that he was a former two-way guy learning to be a full-time pitching (even though this is his 3rd full season in pro ball and 4th season as a pro), and yet, you seem to have made a definite judgment on Ha even though this is basically his 2nd year in CF (off the top, he played a tiny bit of CF in Peoria, but not a lot).

 

Btw, gut feeling is that Ha's offense will never be good enough for him to be a factor as a starter on a top tier squad. I think, and this is awfully early considering his age, that he's probably a AAA guy who sees time as a backup OF from time to time, maybe at best a starter on a non-playoff squad occasionally. But awfully early for him.

Edited May 21, 2012 by toonsterwu

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

As a side note, I'll be honest, I find it mildly intriguing that you defended Raley on account of the fact that he was a former two-way guy learning to be a full-time pitching (even though this is his 3rd full season in pro ball and 4th season as a pro), and yet, you seem to have made a definite judgment on Ha even though this is basically his 2nd year in CF (off the top, he played a tiny bit of CF in Peoria, but not a lot).

 

I find it mildly intriguing that you even see a similarity in that at all. There's a huge difference between going from a part time pitcher part time hitter/position player to full time pitcher. There's less of that going from RF to CF, and he played plenty of RF last year IIRC.

 

Consider that this move to CF increases his perceived value for those who may only have taken glances at the Cubs' system. It's just another way of squeezing value out of a prospect to me, which is not what switching Raley to P did for him (that was defining his future role). Ha doesn't necessarily have to play CF in the long run, but Raley suddenly going back to being a hitter would be a major overhaul.

 

Shark is in what...6th pro season? Throw in Raley being LH, a more rare commodity, and I see no reason to hold this being his 3rd/4th season against him. Pitching ain't easy...I think that's how the phrase goes.

 

Edit: Holy jinkees, so we come full circle to basically a 4th OFer/non-starter, like I originally said? Save me Jeebus.

[toonsterwu]

Actually, and I think we'd likely go in circles on this, but I'd argue the opposite: that learning CF and being good at it is quite difficult if you've never played it at a professionally organized level. Every time I ask folks about it, they tell me that learning CF defense is often under-appreciated and the idea that a guy with range playing RF can slide over to CF and be solid is over-rated (exact words someone said to me once). Whereas with Raley, he had been pitching most of his life, just never full-time, Ha, to the best of my knowledge, did not start playing CF until dabbling with it in Peoria, and then taking to it full-time in Daytona last year. He's learning the position on the fly. Granted, part of this was the Cubs decision to first try him at catcher (one wonders if they had started him in the OF, if perhaps he would've started working in CF earlier).

 

Anyhow, I feel like we would end up going in circles on this, so I'll leave this one alone. But ... in general, I've been repeatedly told that learning CF defense is something that people completely under-appreciate, often times believing range is enough.

 

____

 

Looks like Loosen wants to stay in the rotation. Nice start so far.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Actually, and I think we'd likely go in circles on this, but I'd argue the opposite: that learning CF and being good at it is quite difficult if you've never played it at a professionally organized level. Every time I ask folks about it, they tell me that learning CF defense is often under-appreciated and the idea that a guy with range playing RF can slide over to CF and be solid is over-rated (exact words someone said to me once). Whereas with Raley, he had been pitching most of his life, just never full-time, Ha, to the best of my knowledge, did not start playing CF until dabbling with it in Peoria, and then taking to it full-time in Daytona last year. He's learning the position on the fly. Granted, part of this was the Cubs decision to first try him at catcher (one wonders if they had started him in the OF, if perhaps he would've started working in CF earlier).

 

Anyhow, I feel like we would end up going in circles on this, so I'll leave this one alone. But ... in general, I've been repeatedly told that learning CF defense is something that people completely under-appreciate, often times believing range is enough.

 

____

 

Looks like Loosen wants to stay in the rotation. Nice start so far.

 

I don't see where or how I'm not appreciating how hard it is to learn CF. If anything this plays against your argument that Ha has everything to be the best defensive CF in the system because he's the least experienced and most raw at making reads and taking solid routes. It's a position that more often than not requires being a natural at...which is why your best CFers are lifers at the position.

 

We did go in circles on that btw, so too late on that. You needed 1,000 words to get to fringe starter/backup OF, which is in the original post you replied to.

[davell]

There's a gigantic difference between Shark and Raley. Shark is a world class athlete that had tons of projection at first. He's finally starting to see the light. Raley? Where's the projection? He kind of is what he is already. Yeah, a potential 5th guy, that every team in baseball has multiples of.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Shark::Raley=Sczcur::Sappelt. One has the potential to be a star, the other a serviceable role player.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

There's a gigantic difference between Shark and Raley. Shark is a world class athlete that had tons of projection at first. He's finally starting to see the light. Raley? Where's the projection? He kind of is what he is already. Yeah, a potential 5th guy, that every team in baseball has multiples of.

 

Wait, really? There's major difference between a 6'6" former WR turned pitcher who throws 95 consistently and a 6'3" LH former OF?

 

When you take the comparison that literally, sure. Generally speaking, I'm talking two of the best athletes in the system who came in with fresh arms and minimal backgrounds as pitchers compared to other college trained pitchers. Raley, amongst LH 5th stater types, stands out for being a significantly better athlete than most, even if he doesn't bring the heat.

 

Man you've really got to vacuum seal your arguments to make a point sometimes...damn.

[Tryptamine]

Baez with 2 400+ ft bombs according to AZ Phil.

[El Duderino]

Can't wait for Boise to start.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Shark::Raley=Sczcur::Sappelt. One has the potential to be a star, the other a serviceable role player.

 

I'm really not sure how that was even hard to see. I'm not gifting Raley anything he doesn't have or talking up his abilities to be anything more than they are here.

 

Raley and Shark have looooong been known as (arguably) the two best athletes amongst the pitchers in the organization. As we're seeing, sometimes that can take a while to translate into pitching. Raley very fuckin obviously does not have the physical ceiling Shark does, but then again nobody was making that comparison based on ceiling until a game of Obtuse opened up.

[Guest]

Ha converted from catcher to OF in the winter and spring before he went to Peoria.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Can't wait for Boise to start.

 

Hopefully with my randomly favorite arm to follow Tayler Scott in the rotation. When is that? June?

[El Duderino]

Can't wait for Boise to start.

 

Hopefully with my randomly favorite arm to follow Tayler Scott in the rotation. When is that? June?

 

June 15.

[davell]

No, there's a gigantic difference in athleticism there, even if Raley played both ways in college.. A gigantic difference in their upsides when drafted. Nothing to do with right or left handed. The point is Shark always had serious projection. Raley never did.

[toonsterwu]

Actually, and I think we'd likely go in circles on this, but I'd argue the opposite: that learning CF and being good at it is quite difficult if you've never played it at a professionally organized level. Every time I ask folks about it, they tell me that learning CF defense is often under-appreciated and the idea that a guy with range playing RF can slide over to CF and be solid is over-rated (exact words someone said to me once). Whereas with Raley, he had been pitching most of his life, just never full-time, Ha, to the best of my knowledge, did not start playing CF until dabbling with it in Peoria, and then taking to it full-time in Daytona last year. He's learning the position on the fly. Granted, part of this was the Cubs decision to first try him at catcher (one wonders if they had started him in the OF, if perhaps he would've started working in CF earlier).

 

Anyhow, I feel like we would end up going in circles on this, so I'll leave this one alone. But ... in general, I've been repeatedly told that learning CF defense is something that people completely under-appreciate, often times believing range is enough.

 

____

 

Looks like Loosen wants to stay in the rotation. Nice start so far.

 

I don't see where or how I'm not appreciating how hard it is to learn CF. If anything this plays against your argument that Ha has everything to be the best defensive CF in the system because he's the least experienced and most raw at making reads and taking solid routes. It's a position that more often than not requires being a natural at...which is why your best CFers are lifers at the position.

 

We did go in circles on that btw, so too late on that. You needed 1,000 words to get to fringe starter/backup OF, which is in the original post you replied to.

 

Sorry, I was doing something else and forgot about this.

 

Maybe it didn't come across clear, which is my fault. You noted

 

I find it mildly intriguing that you even see a similarity in that at all. There's a huge difference between going from a part time pitcher part time hitter/position player to full time pitcher. There's less of that going from RF to CF, and he played plenty of RF last year IIRC.

 

What I was saying is that I would argue that Ha learning CF on the fly is far tougher than Raley going from part-time pitcher to full-time pitcher, which seems to be the opposite of what you are arguing. If I'm misreading that statement, then sorry.

 

I don't think anything I've said runs counter to anything else I've said on Ha - while I'm not a big believer in Ha, because of the difficulties in learning the nuances of the position (what I argued in the last post), and my belief that his range is similar enough to Szczur's, that he at least deserves some more time before making a judgment on his CF ability (what I said in earlier posts). But because Szczur is closer to helping (which seems odd to say, considering he's at a lower level), and is more consistent in CF, and considering his age, if Szczur is ready for AA, then you move Ha aside because Szczur takes priority to Ha.

 

And yes, I've defended two guys I'm not huge on in these two threads (Rosario/Ha - while I had Ha ranked higher in the off-season, I'm far more intrigued with Rosario).

[toonsterwu]

There's a gigantic difference between Shark and Raley. Shark is a world class athlete that had tons of projection at first. He's finally starting to see the light. Raley? Where's the projection? He kind of is what he is already. Yeah, a potential 5th guy, that every team in baseball has multiples of.

 

I would also add that few guys reach their ceilings. For all the talk I occasionally make about having a couple mid-rotation ceiling guys in AA/AAA, if one of them makes it to the bigs as a solid 4/5 starter, I'll be okay with it. I hope for better, but I don't think you should go in expecting guys to reach their ceilings. If a guy's ceiling is a mid-rotation arm, then I hope he gets there, but I tend to sway towards the realistic side (even if I don't say it at times and even if I get bullish on Cubs guys) and understand that a 4/5 starter from a mid-rotation arm would be fine.

 

A guy with an end of the rotation ceiling? You're basically asking him to max out. Some guys do.

 

As a side note, this might be the longest minor league game day thread (that I can recall right now) that only has a few posts on the on-going games.

[toonsterwu]

There's a gigantic difference between Shark and Raley. Shark is a world class athlete that had tons of projection at first. He's finally starting to see the light. Raley? Where's the projection? He kind of is what he is already. Yeah, a potential 5th guy, that every team in baseball has multiples of.

 

Wait, really? There's major difference between a 6'6" former WR turned pitcher who throws 95 consistently and a 6'3" LH former OF?

 

When you take the comparison that literally, sure. Generally speaking, I'm talking two of the best athletes in the system who came in with fresh arms and minimal backgrounds as pitchers compared to other college trained pitchers. Raley, amongst LH 5th stater types, stands out for being a significantly better athlete than most, even if he doesn't bring the heat.

 

Man you've really got to vacuum seal your arguments to make a point sometimes...damn.

 

I understand your point. Two above average athletes for the position (I'd argue that Samardzija is a far superior athlete than Raley, and that a better comp for Raley would be Jay Jackson, but your point is noted. But, this is what I think CR (and I) were touching on in the other thread. Athleticism is great. It is, and you'd rather have a good athlete than not. But at a certain point, stuff matters, particularly as it relates to pitchers, and all indications are, as of now, that Raley's ceiling is what it is - an end of the rotation arm. You are basically hoping that he maxes out. I hope you are right, and I hope he becomes a successful 5th starter, but he basically has to max out on his abilities, or find some late developmental spurt.

 

Again ... what's the difference, in stuff, from JR Mathes, when he was in AA, to Brooks Raley now? Doesn't mean that type of guy can't reach the bigs, but I think it's hoping for the best possible situation in regards to development.

[toonsterwu]

Ha converted from catcher to OF in the winter and spring before he went to Peoria.

 

IIRC, he dabbled a bit as a RF as a prep guy in Korea (but I could be thinking of someone else).

[toonsterwu]

So ... Loosen heard about the Francescon news and decided to throw the best game of his season. 5 shut out, 1 hit, 7 K's. Your move, Cates (or Joksich, probably not Kirk, maybe Del Valle? ... I tend to think Kirk is safely in the rotation and that if they remove a lefty, it's probably between Jokisch and Del Valle, but who knows). As decent as Jokisch has been, I think, push comes to shove, he'd be the one I pushed aside if they wanted to keep Cates in the rotation.

 

Half wonder if they go with a 2nd piggyback in Daytona ... Maybe some sort of Cates/lefty combination.

 

Edit: And Jay Jackson's given up 4 R's in 3 innings so far ...

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I understand your point. Two above average athletes for the position (I'd argue that Samardzija is a far superior athlete than Raley, and that a better comp for Raley would be Jay Jackson, but your point is noted. But, this is what I think CR (and I) were touching on in the other thread. Athleticism is great. It is, and you'd rather have a good athlete than not. But at a certain point, stuff matters, particularly as it relates to pitchers, and all indications are, as of now, that Raley's ceiling is what it is - an end of the rotation arm. You are basically hoping that he maxes out. I hope you are right, and I hope he becomes a successful 5th starter, but he basically has to max out on his abilities, or find some late developmental spurt.

 

Again ... what's the difference, in stuff, from JR Mathes, when he was in AA, to Brooks Raley now? Doesn't mean that type of guy can't reach the bigs, but I think it's hoping for the best possible situation in regards to development.

 

Jay Jackson is probably fat at this point and has watched all his pitches diminish as a pro. I wold not make that comparison at all.

 

Nope, not fat, just mysteriously lost his stuff. It is far more acceptable for a LHSP to be a junkballer. I don't see the comp. Funny though that you would look to comp him to Jackson, who's been a major disappointing for running on two years now...This whole Brooks Raley thing really bothered you, didn't it?

 

I don't think a guy "maxing out" to 5th starterdom requires some kind of major leap. It basically means he's a warm body who throws starter innings anywhere from hopefully average to most likely below it. Possibly he makes it, possibly he doesn't (like JR Mathes or whatever his name is), I like him more than most and there's not much in the way of thousands of words that are going to really put a dent into that. Now Raley sucking? That would put a dent in it, but luckily that isn't happening this year so far.

[javy knows my name]

Shark::Raley=Sczcur::Sappelt. One has the potential to be a star, the other a serviceable role player.

 

 

http://29.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lpa8uwu6GU1r0d71zo1_500.gif

 

[toonsterwu]

I understand your point. Two above average athletes for the position (I'd argue that Samardzija is a far superior athlete than Raley, and that a better comp for Raley would be Jay Jackson, but your point is noted. But, this is what I think CR (and I) were touching on in the other thread. Athleticism is great. It is, and you'd rather have a good athlete than not. But at a certain point, stuff matters, particularly as it relates to pitchers, and all indications are, as of now, that Raley's ceiling is what it is - an end of the rotation arm. You are basically hoping that he maxes out. I hope you are right, and I hope he becomes a successful 5th starter, but he basically has to max out on his abilities, or find some late developmental spurt.

 

Again ... what's the difference, in stuff, from JR Mathes, when he was in AA, to Brooks Raley now? Doesn't mean that type of guy can't reach the bigs, but I think it's hoping for the best possible situation in regards to development.

 

Jay Jackson is probably fat at this point and has watched all his pitches diminish as a pro. I wold not make that comparison at all.

 

Nope, not fat, just mysteriously lost his stuff. It is far more acceptable for a LHSP to be a junkballer. I don't see the comp. Funny though that you would look to comp him to Jackson, who's been a major disappointing for running on two years now...This whole Brooks Raley thing really bothered you, didn't it?

 

I don't think a guy "maxing out" to 5th starterdom requires some kind of major leap. It basically means he's a warm body who throws starter innings anywhere from hopefully average to most likely below it. Possibly he makes it, possibly he doesn't (like JR Mathes or whatever his name is), I like him more than most and there's not much in the way of thousands of words that are going to really put a dent into that. Now Raley sucking? That would put a dent in it, but luckily that isn't happening this year so far.

 

Huh? Jay Jackson is fat? Sure doesn't look that way.

 

I've said this before, but the issue with Jay Jackson isn't that his stuff regressed a ton (it might've regressed a bit, but not a ton) ... it's that the future grades that people had (primarily on the slider) never materialized and his slider was stuck in average-land. If you take him now vs. Jay Jackson then, stuff wise, it's not that different.

 

No, this Brooks Raley conversation doesn't bother me one bit. Maybe you are taking this too seriously? Dunno. It's just a discussion on minor league guys. I hope to heck he succeeds. I just picked up the discussion point in the other thread because I agreed with Raisin's points there on Raley vs. Rosario. I ranked him awfully high two years running, before dropping him this year based on a variety of factors.

 

I don't know how you missed the comp - two former two way guys in college, both of whom played in the OF, that were viewed as above-average athletes that could handle the bat (Jackson was decent with the bat in college, probably a better overall bat than Raley, IIRC, but Raley had superior speed and was, IIRC, viewed as a better top of the order bat.) I said this was a better comp than Samardzija, but I didn't spell it out. The reason I said that is because Samardzija was a former two-sport athlete. I don't think he did anything besides pitch in baseball.

 

Btw, JR Mathes was a Cubs farmhand for many years in the middle part of the last decade. Lefty, threw in the mid-80's, IIRC, decent secondary stuff, good command. A poor man's version of Chris Rusin perhaps, but IIRC, he was a fairly big lefty, around 6'3", 6'4", maybe 200? His lack of stuff made a lot of fans label him as a "system arm", the type of arm that fills roles in the minors. Went to Indy ball in 2011 after leaving the Cubs, IIRC. Not sure if he's still in organized baseball of some sort.

Edited May 22, 2012 by toonsterwu

[craig]

Jackson scatters 9 hits and 6 runs over his 3 innings.

 

On Raley and Ha, I don't think I agree strongly with either of you.

 

prior: the idea on excellent athletes is that in time they're more likely to play up to their tools, and they may be playing below their potential because they haven't focused. Samardz had obvious big tools as a pitcher, but it took him many years to play up to them. I think the others feel that Ralay may already be playing up to his tools, but he just doesn't have that many. So more time won't help him. I think they are probably right, but I hope you're right. Sometimes breaking balls change, and guys do learn them. Samardz at first was a power guy, but he fiddled around with different breaking balls for years. Now suddenly this year he's a 4-pitch guy. So I suppose the analogy is there that even though Raley is never going to add velocity, that in time he might be improving and commanding three several non-fastball pitches that he can't command now. If so, he could strike more guys out, and become better than he is now. I hope so, but don't expect it.

 

On Ha, the Cubs tried him at catcher, and in corner OF before moving him to CF. But my understanding is that he played lots of CF in Korea. So that it's not really a new spot for him that he's only played for 14 months. I don't imagine his future will be so much dictated by his CF defense as by his bat. If he hits HR's, he'll have a shot to be a good regular. If he doesn't, he won't. He hit 11 last year at age 20, so you'd think there must be some potential there. But not going to be more than a 4th OF at that with no HR's. At last year's HR pace, he should have 3 (or more) by now. Pop 3 HR's into his stats, and he'd be hitting .280, with a .350 OBP, and a .760 OPS, and that would look not bad for a 21-year-old CFer.

 

Loosen is ruining his 0.33 GO/AO ratio.

[toonsterwu]

Jackson scatters 9 hits and 6 runs over his 3 innings.

 

On Raley and Ha, I don't think I agree strongly with either of you.

 

prior: the idea on excellent athletes is that in time they're more likely to play up to their tools, and they may be playing below their potential because they haven't focused. Samardz had obvious big tools as a pitcher, but it took him many years to play up to them. I think the others feel that Ralay may already be playing up to his tools, but he just doesn't have that many. So more time won't help him. I think they are probably right, but I hope you're right. Sometimes breaking balls change, and guys do learn them. Samardz at first was a power guy, but he fiddled around with different breaking balls for years. Now suddenly this year he's a 4-pitch guy. So I suppose the analogy is there that even though Raley is never going to add velocity, that in time he might be improving and commanding three several non-fastball pitches that he can't command now. If so, he could strike more guys out, and become better than he is now. I hope so, but don't expect it.

 

On Ha, the Cubs tried him at catcher, and in corner OF before moving him to CF. But my understanding is that he played lots of CF in Korea. So that it's not really a new spot for him that he's only played for 14 months. I don't imagine his future will be so much dictated by his CF defense as by his bat. If he hits HR's, he'll have a shot to be a good regular. If he doesn't, he won't. He hit 11 last year at age 20, so you'd think there must be some potential there. But not going to be more than a 4th OF at that with no HR's. At last year's HR pace, he should have 3 (or more) by now. Pop 3 HR's into his stats, and he'd be hitting .280, with a .350 OBP, and a .760 OPS, and that would look not bad for a 21-year-old CFer.

 

Loosen is ruining his 0.33 GO/AO ratio.

 

Craig, you sure he played CF in Korea? I was under the impression that he was a RF in Korea.

 

Edit: Mildly curious, so trying to see if anything is online about it. Can't seem to find anything (English language sites) that says he played OF in Korea). Looking at old AzPhil box scores, he played more CF in XST in 2009 than I realized, so he at least got some work there that I didn't recall. My fault for not recalling that. Although I'm pretty sure he played more RF than CF in Boise and Peoria, but I'd have to go through game logs, which ... well ... that's too much work for this. Sufficed to say, I was wrong. He got, at the very least, some XST coaching work in CF. Serves to dent my point a bit, but not completely.

 

But anyhow, the 2nd part is loosely what I wrote above - at the end of the day, Ha's offense is going to determine if he's a guy who's a regular.

 

Edit: Loosen should be, stuff wise, more of a flyball guy. I don't recall the reports being that high on the movement he gets on his fastball or his changeup to generate groundballs.

Edited May 22, 2012 by toonsterwu