Moving forward- very early look at 2013

[davell]

C Castillo .5 Clevenger .5

1B Rizzo .5

2B Barney .5 Cardenas .5

SS Castro 5(arb guess)

3B Stewart 3.5(arb guess) Mather .8 (arb guess)

LF LaHair .5 Soriano 19

CF B Jackson .5 Campana .5

RF DeJesus 4.25

 

Total of 36.55 mill spent. I'm figuring Soto is traded before next offseason personally. And while it's not set in stone that Rizzo and Brett are here to stay, my guess is they will be, or at the very least Rizzo is. Look at how left handed that lineup is though? Is it possible to have TOO many lefties in an order? I'm asking because I don't know that I've seen a lineup that as of now looks like 6 of the 8 spots are filled by left handed hitters. Yeah, I certainly think we could find a guy to platoon with LaHair and even Brett, which would help matters there anyway. But, that lineup doesn't look all that shabby and there is TONS of cash available to upgrade it.

 

SP Garza 13(guess of 1st extension year)

Shark 5.5 (arb guess if he continues on this path)

Maholm 6.5

Wood .5

 

I think we'll move Dempster, if he lets us, because I think we'll want to get younger and better in the rotation. Not sure if Volstad has a spot moving forward, if he does, my guess is it's in the pen. Still, that's 25.5 mill spent on the rotation, bringing our payroll up to 62.05. Again, there is TONS of money we can spend.

 

Closer-?????

Dolis .5

Russell 1.2(arb guess)

Marmol 9.8

Bowden .5

Volstad 3.5(arb guess)

 

That's 15.5 mill spent on the pen, taking us to 77.55 total. Yes, we have 600K a year going towards Concepcion and hopefully Soler adds more money to this total as well. Still, we could be looking at having 40 million or so to use, fill out the roster, and STILL keep the payroll around 120 million or so. Maybe more, depsnding on whether or not guys like MaHolm and Volstad are still around.

 

Personally, I don't see us spending money at the C spot. But, you could sign a stopgap like Russell Martin or spend big on Miguel Montero, if he makes it to FA. The 2 Infield spots we could spend on would be 2B and 3B obviously, but there's nothing out there to spend on thru FA anyway. I guess it's conceivable to trade for a player, but I don't necessarily think we'll be all that bad at either spot with what we have currently. This leaves the OF, where we could go in a different direction completely from what I've got penciled in here. LaHair COULD be gone obviously, Brett could be dealt, or not ready. About the safest guy we've got is DeJesus, who's pretty damn solid for us. But even he could be traded between now and next season. At any rate, if we add a big bat, it's almost definitely coming from the OF. Hamilton, Upton, Ethier, Cabrera, and Swisher are the biggest options thru FA. Again, no clue what could be out there via trade by then.

 

Looking at the rotation, it's possible to could keep Dempster and lose Maholm. It's also possible Volstad survives into next season as a starter and Wood isn't in the rotation. At any rate, there's definitely room to add a bigtime addition, maybe even a back end guy as well, depending on how we play things. The biggest guy is Hamels, followed by Greinke, then Sanchez, Edwin, Kuroda, Colby Lewis, Marcum, McCarthy, and Peavy. Some of which would fall into the back end, some of which would represent at least a mid rotation upgrade, maybe more. Trade is also a possibility here, just again, no clue who's going to be out there.

 

I don't think this group is going to spend heavily on the bullpen, if anything, I think they'll sign a couple more guys to low end deals and hope to get another Camp type performance or two, mixed in with guys who we can bring up between now and then.

 

We've got Vitters, Valbuena, Sappelt, Beliveau, and Maine in AAA, who all will be getting a look at next year's team as well. In Tennessee, we'll have Lake, Watkins, McNutt, Cabrera, and maybe Rhoderick getting looks at some point in 2013 too. So, it's likely another bench spot and maybe a bullpen spot or two, could come out of this group.

 

The bottom line though, is with the emergence of Shark and LaHair, it's easy to see us possibly shifting gears and making big moves next offseason. Yes, it's possible with regression, this could change somewhat, but I think the FO has to be very happy with how we're set up moving forward. It's cool to know we're not all that far away at all, looking at it this way. Yes, there's some questions, but we'll hopefully have them all answered soon, because I think we'll find out by the break, which direction most of this scenario is heading for us. But, if we have a lousy record this year, it gives us more money to spend next year on IFA, and a better draft position as well. Coupled with the early spots we have for this year. The system could get revamped quickly, making it easier for us to make a big trade, or to start being able to count on having good, young cheap guys filtering in, year by year. All in all, it's pointing up for us, and it looks like it's definitely possible to get this thing turned around much quicker than when we looked at this squad heading into the season.

[Backtobanks]

C Castillo .5 Clevenger .5

1B Rizzo .5

2B Barney .5 Cardenas .5

SS Castro 5(arb guess)

3B Stewart 3.5(arb guess) Mather .8 (arb guess)

LF LaHair .5 Soriano 19

CF B Jackson .5 Campana .5

RF DeJesus 4.25

 

Total of 36.55 mill spent. I'm figuring Soto is traded before next offseason personally. And while it's not set in stone that Rizzo and Brett are here to stay, my guess is they will be, or at the very least Rizzo is. Look at how left handed that lineup is though? Is it possible to have TOO many lefties in an order? I'm asking because I don't know that I've seen a lineup that as of now looks like 6 of the 8 spots are filled by left handed hitters. Yeah, I certainly think we could find a guy to platoon with LaHair and even Brett, which would help matters there anyway. But, that lineup doesn't look all that shabby and there is TONS of cash available to upgrade it.

 

.

 

That lineup looks kind of shabby to me. Barney, Stewart, Brett Jackson, and Castillo are all question marks and that's assuming Rizzo hits right away. As you posted, there should be lots of money to upgrade.

[champaignchris]

Would Howie Kendrick be a good f.a. target at second base? He'd be 29 for the 2013 season.

[El Duderino]

Would Howie Kendrick be a good f.a. target at second base? He'd be 29 for the 2013 season.

 

according to baseball-reference he's signed through 2015.

[pitchcs]

Hamels, Edwin and Shaun Marcum would be my top 3 for the rotation.

[El Duderino]

Hamels, Edwin and Shaun Marcum would be my top 3 for the rotation.

 

Greinke?

[davell]

Hamels, Edwin and Shaun Marcum would be my top 3 for the rotation.

 

Greinke?

 

Social anxiety issues could rear up in a large market. He's not high on my list for this reason as well.

[sneakypower]

pass on Hamels and the 8/180 or whatever he ends up getting, and use that instead on:

 

BJ Upton 5/80

Edwin Jackson 3/35

Stephen Drew 4/55

F. Liriano 1/6?

 

RF DeJesus (B. Jackson)

CF Upton

SS Castro

LF LaHair (Campana)

2B Drew (Barney)

1B Rizzo

3B Stewart (Cardenas)

C Castillo (Clevenger)

 

Garza, Samardjiza, E. Jackson, Dempster, T. Wood/Maholm/Volstad/F.Liriano

Marmol, Dolis, Russell, Bowden, L. Castillo, Rusin

 

print playoff tickets

[SouthSideRyan]

I have a really hard time seeing Drew getting 4/55. Are you offering arb to Dempster?

[sneakypower]

yes to Demp

 

you're probably right about Drew, who might take a one-year deal if he doesn't have a big second half; i'd love to try going long-term though

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I like the Drew idea but where does he play? Also like Liriano if you can get him on a nice buy low type deal, otherwise not a fan.

 

I'd definitely go after Upton and Hamels, the two still young big names, and then look at a bunch of secondary guys like Drew, Jackson, Sanchez, Liriano, Swisher, Shields/Santana/Floyd/Carmona if they somehow hit...see what reliever is cheap and worth a gamble.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Threw out the name Santana...Ervin has an option with the Angels next year, but they're a team with Weaver/Wilson/Haren at the top. If he shakes through, how interested are the Cubs? He does like giving up the HR ball.

 

What about the enigmatic (awesome word) and now 32 year old Carmona?

[davell]

The Angels have team options on both Santana and Haren actually. Wouldn't surprise me to see them trade one or the other. No to Carmona.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Much of this is so crazy it hurts, but here goes

 

Trade

Brett Jackson and Travis Wood to Oakland for Josh Reddick

Bryan LaHair and prospects to Twins for Josh Willingham

David DeJesus to Tigers for Rick Porcello

Soriano+cash to someone for fringe prospects

 

Sign

Brandon McCarthy or Anibal Sanchez

Mike Adams 3/15

Bobby Jenks/Pete Moylan 1/2.5 w/incentives

 

1. Campana CF

2. Castro SS

3. Rizzo 1B

4. Willingham LF

5. Reddick RF

6. Stewart 3B

7. Soto/Castillo C

8. Cardenas 2B

Bench Clevenger/Castillo

Bench Barney

Bench Sappelt

Bench Lake

SP Garza extend

SP Demp 2/20

SP McCarthy/Sanchez

SP Shark

SP Porcello

CL Mike Adams

BP Marmol

BP Moylan/Jenks

BP Russell

BP Beliveau

BP Cabrera

BP Bowden

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I know and understand that no one here really loves Porcello, but the Tigers aren't going to dump him for someone like DeJesus. Would he sweet though because I do expect him to mature as a pitcher as he gets older.

[mookie]

Jackson and Wood for Reddick? Why? Just why?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Wtf is a Pete Moylan?

[Guest]

You can't say that we weren't warned.

[pitchcs]

Hamels, Edwin and Shaun Marcum would be my top 3 for the rotation.

 

Greinke?

 

Social anxiety issues could rear up in a large market. He's not high on my list for this reason as well.

 

Yes, this mixed with more $$ than anyone except Hamels. I'd much rather have Edwin Jackson/Marcum at a cheaper price. Those guys could both be Lilly/Dempster type signings.

 

I'm actually pretty set on the sign Hamels side, I know there's a much larger discussion in another thread. I would be very happy with adding him. 6/$114?

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm actually pretty set on the sign Hamels side, I know there's a much larger discussion in another thread. I would be very happy with adding him. 6/$114?

 

fat chance. matt cain just signed a 6/$127.5m deal without hitting the market. that's pretty much the floor for a hamels deal. if we're talking about 6 years, i'd guess something around 6/$140m.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

6/140 for Hamels would be fine with me. That's somewhere around 23.4 or so...Sounds about right?

 

I'd guess about 5/80 for Upton.

 

That's 40 on two players, but that would probably still leave the Cubs below 130 in payroll, though I'm not checking any numbers to be sure about that. I think that leaves plenty of room for a secondary pitcher or bat or both. Swisher/Jackson would probably get my vote right now, but if Drew is into 2B that's an idea I could get into.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Jackson and Wood for Reddick? Why? Just why?

 

Because Reddick is just over a year older than Jackson, has big league success and do far is the first A's position player since Miguel Tejada to put up good offensive numbers.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Wtf is a Pete Moylan?

 

A very good sidearm relief pitcher for the Braves from 2006-2011. He's been out with injury this season. Shoulder related I believe.

[davell]

Jack Moored, a writer at Fangraphs, said he thinks Swisher will leave, but also thinks he'll get 4/70 or 5/85 on the open market. I like Swisher a lot, but no. Just no. Not to mention, if we have LaHair, Rizzo, Stewart, and Brett all in the lineup, I think we probably need a righty. Upton is sounding really good to me right now honestly, especially since he can conceivably help LaHair out too with his range.

[dew1679666265]

That's 40 on two players, but that would probably still leave the Cubs below 130 in payroll, though I'm not checking any numbers to be sure about that. I think that leaves plenty of room for a secondary pitcher or bat or both. Swisher/Jackson would probably get my vote right now, but if Drew is into 2B that's an idea I could get into.

 

davell's numbers in the OP showed that the Cubs would have around $40 million to spend this offseason without really increasing payroll. I tend to think we'd be bargain bin shopping the rest of the offseason if we grabbed Hamels/Upton.

 

It really depends on why they dropped payroll this past offseason.