Stewart's Crappy Luck

[Sammy Sofa]

Colvin got plenty of playing time in 2011; he was horrible.

 

And yes, you were ridiculed because you harp on and on about player history regardless of how many PA it is or whether it was the minors or the majors or which league in the minors it was or what health issues were being dealt with. You're determined to find concrete patterns in select stat lines like some kind of annoying baseball Beautiful Mind and then act like they're a lock that a player will succeed or fail...until it's case like Trumbo, and then it's all out the window. That is why you are ridiculed, coupled with how torturous it is to read your posts.

 

And yes, you want to make time for promising young players. The Cubs have a shortage of such in the OF (and had a lack of players willing to take a pitch), and like it or not you need to at least try to field a team, so signing a guy like Dejesus on the cheap makes perfect sense. He's not blocking anyone. Then Stewart is picked up because they also have a dearth of players at 3B and he's an intriguing reclamation project. That's it. That's as far as it goes. Any positive things said about Stewart have been out of the hope that he'd be able to bounce back and be a serviceable 3B option until a long term option was found. Colvin, as you've said yourself, had no future with the team, so it was a break even trade at worst.

 

you have this way backwards, you are almost talking about yourself here!

I didn't start with stats until I was hit with the line"you state your opinion but have shown no statistics to back it up" so I used them.

you used a stat line for less than 3 weeks to stewart was coming out of bad luck. I only showed sinilar stat lines in an attempt to show you haw ridiculous it is to show a slice of stats to prove a point...not to prove mine. I showed you inge's 3 weeks that were better..even though he was done, I showed a 3 week slice from adam dunn's terrible last year to show that even in the absolute worst possible season, you could find a good couple weeks THAT MEAN NOTHING.

My showing those stats were to presuade you away from your original taunt of me that read:

 

Time IS telling, and we can see reality. As pointed out, these are his numbers in May:

 

.246 .338 .456 .795

 

Surely this will make you reconsider and...

 

.......ohhhhhh. You're one of those.

 

sounds like a partial line disregrading PA...

it's probably more to do the fact that I dared disagree with the hierachy, and was also right. While you keep trying to change the direction to shield the fact that your wrong, and you can't stand it.

 

and for:

Colvin had 220 plate appearances in 2011 and was bad. He started 47 games, over half of those after august 1st when he was already deep in a slump. if you have ever played the hardest thing to do is hit when you are not playing regularly, the next hardest is to dig yourself out of a slump, especially when you are mentally struggling..."see adam dunn". I am not saying this was the problem but it was definitely not the best position to put him in or to find out what he could do. 2010 was very solid, and 2012 has been a little better than 2010.

 

Too much gibberish.

 

Again, the attempts to breakdown Stewart's performance were out of the hope that he was turning things around couple with the horrendous luck he had in April. This was also before we found out his wrist issues were more serious and so there was also the hope that his 2011 was something he could bounce back from. People weren't expecting him to suddenly become amazing; most would be satisfied if he had been offensively similar to 2099-10210 coupled with the improved defense because, again, placeholder.

[neely crenshaw]

so why the contempt when I simply felt he wasn't hitting in bad luck and that he wasn't going to rebound.

you made it personally with your first comment containing "oh, you one of those" and throwing out a 3 week stat line like I had to be ignorant to not get that "Time IS telling, and we can see reality. As pointed out, these are his numbers in May:

 

.246 .338 .456 .795

 

Surely this will make you reconsider"

[Sammy Sofa]

Because I find you contemptible. This isn't complicated.

[neely crenshaw]

What I think you mean to say is, "because you are right and I have no other real argument, so I'll continue to say meaningless drivel to try to hide the fact that I don't know as much as I think."

 

Isn't funny that basically everything that you have a problem with, has turned out in my favor.

[Sammy Sofa]

Your "favor" is unrealistic standards and shoddy stat jockeying.

 

Let's break this down (hopefully) for the last time:

 

Why was I pointing out that line? Because here's what Stewart put up in 2009:

 

.228 .322 .464 .785

 

Here's what he put up in 2010:

 

.256 .338 .443 .781

 

Here's the line you keep harping on:

 

.246 .338 .456 .795

 

Here's what he ended up doing in May:

 

.225 .329 .437 .766

 

Once again, what were people realistically hoping for out of Stewart? A serviceable 3B. The hope was that he'd be able to bounce back from his injury-saddled/shortened 2011 and put up numbers along the lines of 2009-2010 coupled with his improved defense. Until he was sidelined with the wrist that's what he appeared to be capable of doing again, especially once you adjust for his extreme bad luck in April. That was the goal of trading for Stewart, and it's unfortunate that it turned out like it did for 2012, but it was a chance worth taking.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Lord only knows why Kyle thinks a relatively affordable 1.5-2.0 WAR player at 3B for a season or two would be a bad thing.

 

When Ian Stewart puts up a 2.0 WAR, feel free to ask me how I feel about him. Hasn't happened yet.

[Sammy Sofa]

Lord only knows why Kyle thinks a relatively affordable 1.5-2.0 WAR player at 3B for a season or two would be a bad thing.

 

When Ian Stewart puts up a 2.0 WAR, feel free to ask me how I feel about him. Hasn't happened yet.

 

Well, BR says he has; Fangraphs says 1.5. Let's meet in the middle.

 

Though still, it's fun to watch you flail in your trolling.

Edited July 27, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Lord only knows why Kyle thinks a relatively affordable 1.5-2.0 WAR player at 3B for a season or two would be a bad thing.

Never forget the Ryan Flaherty/Jeff Baker platoon that would put up a similar WAR to Aramis.

 

Jeff Baker: Awesome against lefties

Ian Stewart: Terrible and injured as was easily predictable

Aramis Ramirez: Better than I would have guessed

Ryan Flaherty: Pretty awful.

 

So I'm batting .500 on that one.

[Sammy Sofa]

You can't be .500 when at some point you've agreed with everyone.

[neely crenshaw]

You only posted his partial May line as an indication of turning it around.

 

I fully understand what his stats were and that the hope was he could do something anywhere close to that. I get it. In fact I said many times I get it, and that I get the trade.

 

It does not change what I saw on the field, and that I felt he wasn't going to get there. I felt that it wasn't bad luck nor that a couple good games meant it was coming along.

 

His old stats are a reason to hope he could be that guy, but it isn't a reason to change my opinion of this year.

Yes, the stats gave you hope, and I get that. I simply think the drop off and his current play showed he wasn't coming back around.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You can't be .500 when at some point you've agreed with everyone.

 

That's how you guarantee you are .500.

[Sammy Sofa]

You can't be .500 when at some point you've agreed with everyone.

 

That's how you guarantee you are .500.

 

Might as well claim it all!

[Sammy Sofa]

You only posted his partial May line as an indication of turning it around.

 

And now I posted the whole thing.

 

I fully understand what his stats were and that the hope was he could do something anywhere close to that. I get it. In fact I said many times I get it, and that I get the trade.

 

It does not change what I saw on the field, and that I felt he wasn't going to get there. I felt that it wasn't bad luck nor that a couple good games meant it was coming along.

 

I don't care what you "felt;" the numbers show he WAS tremendously unlucky to start the season. You adjust his numbers based on that and, shocker, his pre-May numbers look like his May numbers which, double-shocker are in the area of what we'd be hoping he'd be able to put up.

 

His old stats are a reason to hope he could be that guy, but it isn't a reason to change my opinion of this year.

Yes, the stats gave you hope, and I get that. I simply think the drop off and his current play showed he wasn't coming back around.

 

He was bouncing back from 2011 and was trending in the right direction until he could no longer play through the wrist issues. That's why they traded for him, and that's why it's still an interesting question of what he'll be able to do after the surgery.

[neely crenshaw]

Don't agree on bouncing back but it's possible.

I realize the possibilities are why they took the chance. I just saw a guy pretty lost at the plate, that did not square up many balls in the first 2 months.

Maybe the surgery will be the answer. I have doubts but for the team I hope he comes around enough to fill in until Vitters or another answer is ready.

[Sammy Sofa]

Maybe. Look, in all seriousness, you're giving your eyes way too much credit.

[neely crenshaw]

But they seem to be better than your reading of the stat lines on this one.

 

I know you'll bring up the wrist but he was awful, and we will never know exactly what part was him and what was the wrist. Even if he fails when he returns, I'm sure you'll say he never recovered.

I'm pretty confident on what I've seen so far.

 

The 2nd half oft he dropped his stat line. he hit .161, with no extra base hits ,277 obp and a ops under .400, so is the first half an indicator of a turn around or the 2nd half an indicator of returning to norm?

[Sammy Sofa]

But they seem to be better than your reading of the stat lines on this one.

 

I honestly have no idea how to argue with this. You're convinced that what you managed to watch is somehow more accurate than the stats.

 

I know you'll bring up the wrist but he was awful, and we will never know exactly what part was him and what was the wrist. Even if he fails when he returns, I'm sure you'll say he never recovered.

I'm pretty confident on what I've seen so far.

 

You're talking like Ian Stewart and Ian Stewart's wrist are two separate things. I'm pretty confident you're pretty confident in a lot of weird things.

 

The 2nd half oft he dropped his stat line. he hit .161, with no extra base hits ,277 obp and a ops under .400, so is the first half an indicator of a turn around or the 2nd half an indicator of returning to norm?

 

I have no idea what you're talking about; Ian Stewart has not played at all in the 2nd half of this season.

[neely crenshaw]

second half of May big guy...we have been talking about his May. We have mentioned several times the fall off after his hot start, and you pasted his entire month of stats, so I posted his 2nd half(of May) stats, in an attempt to show you how 2 weeks skews a stat line. In general when you have several sets of data, and one small section is markedly different than the rest, it's looked at as an anomaly not a change in form, especially when it is surrounded by conflicting data on all sides. Everyone gets hot, but when every other section is beyond bad, it's really hard to find anything to contradict that trend. Although you are trying.

 

His stats suck, unless you cut them down to your small selection of May 2nd to May 14th. Outside of that, he is below .200 BA, and has an OPS of around .550.

So if you can argue that his two weeks in May are more meaningful than the other 8 weeks, then you win. Other than those 2 weeks you are simply guessing that he is turning around.

Obviously, you can say that I am guessing also. However, I am "guessing" based on watching him this year, seeing his entire year of stats, looking at last year's stats and pretty much all of his mediocre stats from Colorado. "My eyes" and those stats lead me to feel he is never going to even match his numbers from 3 and 4 years ago. Not in Chicago, not even in Colorado.

Really only his production, whenever he comes back, can contradict or prove that wrong.

[Sammy Sofa]

I cut them down to show you the painfully obvious; it's your problem, not mine, that you don't understand BAbip and LD% and the like to see that he was actually performing (and how his numbers in April were skewed) along the lines of what was hoped until the wrist sidelined him. Of course players are going to go hot and cold, and we only have a little sample size with which to judge Stewart this year, but you're acting like his good numbers are flukishly good as opposed to being what should be expected. Based on the numbers, yes, it appeared that he had a decent shot of getting back to his 2009-2010 production until he had to be shut down. You're trying to present any success he had as an anomaly when those numbers are actually more in line with his career numbers than being representative of some kind of anomalous hot streak. Unless you're saying you think the 182 PA from 2011 and 2007 are more indicative of his line than the 1236 PA between 2008 and 2010.

[Sammy Sofa]

I mean, if your goal is to look at player evaluation as simply being a matter of good or bad, then there's nothing further to discuss. That's primo meatballery.

[neely crenshaw]

There's certainly a difference between bad and god awful.

When it comes to rating how he has played this year, not sure what else there is, other than maybe the shades of average in between good and bad. If you are talking about potential, or upside, there is more but you have made this about him, and his performance this year. I never bad mouthed the trade or him being here, just feel he won't rebound. Again don't see why that is so awful and it sure seems as though I'm right on that.

We won't have a definitive answer until he returns %100 from surgery, which may not be until next year. Right now, in your argument, you have 2008, two weeks in May and his wrist injury as hope that he rounds back into form. A form which for whatever reason, you are adamant that he will regain and that he was showing signs of returning.

There is a reason that every team still employs actual field scouts, and they don't just look in the books when deciding on players.

My advice, put down baseball prospectus and watch a few games.

[Sammy Sofa]

A form which for whatever reason, you are adamant that he will regain and that he was showing signs of returning.

 

False. You keep moving the goalposts as to what you're even arguing and making up what others are saying, and I really just don't give a [expletive] about it anymore.

 

My advice, put down baseball prospectus and watch a few games.

 

We're done.

[TruffleShuffle]

My advice, put down baseball prospectus and watch a few games.

 

but what if i can't get tv reception in my mom's basement?

[DiamondMind]

http://i967.photobucket.com/albums/ae156/clynchhh/2dv61wh.gif

[neely crenshaw]

I keep moving the goal posts? Interesting.

 

The entire gist of this argument is that I dare to think that Stewart is not going to come around, and that his little run was not a signal of anything turning the corner. Hard for anyone (but you) to say that he had come around at all this season. The best thing that happened to your point of view is that was his wrist. Without his wrist injury, how could you possibly argue a line of .201 .292 .335 .627 is good in any way, shape or form.

This basis of argument has never changed.