Does Soto have ANY value right now?

[Sammy Sofa]

I propose we don't scare away every new poster that wants to talk baseball.

This. The level of elitism around here is ridiculous.

 

Oh, please. One of the reasons this place took off is because it offered an alternative to Cubs.com-style meatball-ism.

And one of the reasons it has fallen off so badly is because of the elitism.

 

Typical meatball.

[SouthSideRyan]

The guy's lost at the plate and has been for more than a year.

 

Soto from April 23rd, 2011 - today has OPSd 705. It's not great, but it's certainly not lost.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The unconditional love for Soto amongst several on this board is truly mystifying.

 

I'm looking forward to some heads exploding when the whippingboy LaHair has a better year than the goldenboy Soto.

 

I was going to say you have no idea what you're babbling about, but it actually makes sense if one understands dave-speak. Once again, there is no in-between for him: if you don't think Soto is hopelessly horrible, you apparently have "unconditional love" for him because he's a "goldenboy."

 

Sprinkle in some nonsensical gibberish inexplicably pitting Soto against LaHair and you've got a spectacular davearm2 masterpiece.

 

More importantly, even if Soto does ultimately stabilize at where he ended up last season, he's still around a 2.0 WAR player. Unless he's been taking a 2nd banned substance over the past few years, it's simply not reasonable to expect him to completely fall off a cliff at his age.

[Hendrys Ghost]

Gut-driven overraction? I have watched Soto fall off the map for a long while now. This is hardly an overreaction.

[Guest]

The guy's lost at the plate and has been for more than a year.

 

Soto from April 23rd, 2011 - today has OPSd 705. It's not great, but it's certainly not lost.

 

A tick above league average actually.

[Sammy Sofa]

You've seen him "fall off the map" for about 2 months of play.

[bcl412]

I have to say that the snark that this site is known for made me a more knowledgeable baseball fan. It's best not to take it too seriously really.

 

I also think Soto has been pretty underrated by Cubs fans while here (aside from his rookie year). He had a great offensive season less than two seasons ago and has been solid defensively. He's been awful so far this year but it's only a couple of weeks into the season, he definitely hasn't been bad for more than a month and he will absolutely be better than he has this year. In his worse years he is a .700 OPS hitter, way above where he is now.

 

Who available will be a better option than him? I don't want either of our minor league/rookie catchers over him at this point.

[sneakypower]

LaHair will out-OPS Soto.

Well we better hope so, as he's a first baseman, and not a particularly good defensive one at that. Also, on a more irrelevant note that's a useful reminder, Soto is two months younger than LaHair.

 

Soto and LaHair have had pretty similar batted ball profiles so far. LaHair's LD% is higher(26% to 21%), but he's also had a higher K rate(31% to 23%. LaHair's BABIP is .524 and Soto's is .156. Normalize those and Soto probably comes out ahead.

 

But anyway, aside from being a nice illustration of how crazy BABIP can be at this point in the season, LaHair has no purpose in this thread.

to add to that point, positional average OPS for catcher is about 100 pts lower than for 1B

[bcl412]

Gut-driven overraction? I have watched Soto fall off the map for a long while now. This is hardly an overreaction.

 

What are you defining as a long while?

[SouthSideRyan]

You've seen him "fall off the map" for about 2 months of play.

 

But I just know, for years, now, YEARS, you throw that slider, and boom, Geo's walking out the hotbox.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3707&position=C#pfxpitchvalues

 

Whoops.

[Sammy Sofa]

[expletive] ALL OF THIS ELITISM RABBLERABBLERABBLE.

[bcl412]

Why isn't snarling anger and accepting that your opinion is more factual than physical data not considered elitism?

[CubColtPacer]

Soto at his worst is a slightly below average starting catcher (he was below average most starters last year in OPS and especially in OBP, and all his raw numbers and metrics have him as very close to average defensively). The scary thing with him is that he is starting to lose his upside. His 2008 and 2010 were both great. His 2009 was mostly due to bad luck. Last year was his first year where he really regressed and this year has continued that trend. Should the Cubs be looking to replace him? Not unless they think Castillo has a solid shot to be an average catcher or better himself. But the odds of the Cubs seeing the 2008-2010 Soto anytime soon seem to be fading.

[woodchip2153]

You've seen him "fall off the map" for about 2 months of play.

 

But I just know, for years, now, YEARS, you throw that slider, and boom, Geo's walking out the hotbox.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3707&position=C#pfxpitchvalues

 

Whoops.

 

Am I reading that wrong? Doesn't that say Soto is below average on sliders?

 

I remember reading an article on Fangraphs last year that Soto and Soriano were in the top 10 for making their living on fastballs.

 

But I agree Soto is probably closer to the slightly above average offensive player and is not trash.

[Hendrys Ghost]

Gut-driven overraction? I have watched Soto fall off the map for a long while now. This is hardly an overreaction.

 

What are you defining as a long while?

 

Better part of last year and the first part of this season. And the funny thing is is that I like Geo. He has a career .794 OPS, which we can obviously live with. Once again, my frustration with Geo is that he does not look like he is making any adjustments and he looks foolish at the plate.

 

He is 29 and there are a few teams that MIGHT give a decent return back if he can hit a lick between now and the ASB.

[Sammy Sofa]

Gut-driven overraction? I have watched Soto fall off the map for a long while now. This is hardly an overreaction.

 

What are you defining as a long while?

 

Better part of last year

 

Incorrect:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=sotoge01&year=2011&t=b#month

[Guest]

You've seen him "fall off the map" for about 2 months of play.

 

But I just know, for years, now, YEARS, you throw that slider, and boom, Geo's walking out the hotbox.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3707&position=C#pfxpitchvalues

 

Whoops.

 

Am I reading that wrong? Doesn't that say Soto is below average on sliders?

 

I remember reading an article on Fangraphs last year that Soto and Soriano were in the top 10 for making their living on fastballs.

 

But I agree Soto is probably closer to the slightly above average offensive player and is not trash.

 

There's a large gap between "Soto is below average on sliders and feasts on fastballs" and "Soto is Serrano and is done the moment you throw him a breaking pitch.

[Sammy Sofa]

ARRRRRRRRGGGGHHHHH, GREY AREA!!!!!

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Am I reading that wrong? Doesn't that say Soto is below average on sliders?

 

I remember reading an article on Fangraphs last year that Soto and Soriano were in the top 10 for making their living on fastballs.

 

But I agree Soto is probably closer to the slightly above average offensive player and is not trash.

 

Terrible over a 10 game sample this year, and bad in 2009. Slightly above average in '10-'11. Point being he hasn't been lost on sliders forever, unless you consider 10 games to be an adequate sample.

[MWV]

Maybe this queston has already been addressed, but to those who wish to get rid of him, what is to be done? Soto is making $4.3 million in 2012. Would you advocate trading him now, likely eating his much of his salary for a meager return or cutting him loose and eating all of his salary for no return?

Like it or not, this is not a good Cubs team and plugging in Welington Castillo for Geovany Soto is not likely to change that (certainly not so much that it makes either of the above choices attractive). Why not just wait for his BAbip to regress toward his career average (.299, vs. his present .156), at which point you have a useful starting catcher with a year of arbitration eligibility remaining who might net you something of value?

[SouthSideRyan]

What this really comes down to is that Clevenger has done very well over 18 ABs.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Not digging through this thread (so much anger)...If Soto picks it up before the trade deadline how willing should be Cubs be to make a trade involving him? You have to figure that as a sub-30 catcher who can hit he's one of the most interesting pieces of bait this team has.

[Guest]

Maybe this queston has already been addressed, but to those who wish to get rid of him, what is to be done? Soto is making $4.3 million in 2012. Would you advocate trading him now, likely eating his much of his salary for a meager return or cutting him loose and eating all of his salary for no return?

Like it or not, this is not a good Cubs team and plugging in Welington Castillo for Geovany Soto is not likely to change that (certainly not so much that it makes either of the above choices attractive). Why not just wait for his BAbip to regress toward his career average (.299, vs. his present .156), at which point you have a useful starting catcher with a year of arbitration eligibility remaining who might net you something of value?

 

I'm not opposed to trading Soto. Trading him this summer would strike a nice balance between ensuring that Castillo/Clevenger are capable to replace him and allowing enough time to FA for Soto to still fetch a good price. That said, his horrific start makes that more difficult. It would really behoove us for Soto to have a monster May, and then a more moderate June/July would leave him a much more desirable target. I would not make the Marlon Byrd deal for Soto or get rid of him for nothing. While CCP is right that Soto's ceiling may not be much higher than Byrd's was(3 WAR guy up the middle), that's still valuable enough given his youth, defense and flukishly bad 2012 to date are enough for me to ride him out for a while. This isn't the first bad or even awful April that Geo has had.

[Sosa21MVP]

I don't see the point in trading Soto right now. He isn't blocking a hot catching prospect in the minors and his trade value can only improve as the season goes on (it certainly can't get any lower).

[davearm2]

I propose we don't scare away every new poster that wants to talk baseball.

This. The level of elitism around here is ridiculous.

 

Oh, please. One of the reasons this place took off is because it offered an alternative to Cubs.com-style meatball-ism.

And one of the reasons it has fallen off so badly is because of the elitism.

 

Typical meatball.

Typical elitism.