2012 International Free Agent Market

[Guest]

Here's the math on the $665,000:

 

The Cubs can go up to 5% over the $2,900,000 limit and only have to pay a tax. That makes it $3,045,000. Juan Carlos Paniagua cost $1.5 million, Frandy de la Rosa cost $700,000, Wagner Dislan cost $100,000 and Luis Hernandez cost $80,000. That leaves the Cubs with $665,000, but it's possible some of their other signings cost more than $50,000 and we haven't heard of it yet.

[El Duderino]

This sucks. Screw these new rules.

[Guest]

@BAHighSchool: Here's video of Japanese 18-year-old RHP Shohei Otani throwing 160 kph (99.42 mph): https://t.co/XXrB1vmi

[CubsWin]

Here's the math on the $665,000:

 

The Cubs can go up to 5% over the $2,900,000 limit and only have to pay a tax. That makes it $3,045,000. Juan Carlos Paniagua cost $1.5 million, Frandy de la Rosa cost $100,000, Wagner Dislan cost $100,000 and Luis Hernandez cost $80,000. That leaves the Cubs with $665,000, but it's possible some of their other signings cost more than $50,000 and we haven't heard of it yet.

That math doesn't add up, but when you make the $100,000 that de la Rosa signed for into the $700,000 that he actually signed for, then it does. :wink:

Edited October 22, 2012 by CubsWin

[CubsWin]

I need a little clarification here. According to the BA quote below, Otani, who was born July 5, 1994, was old enough to sign this year, but apparently he couldn't because he had not graduated high school yet. According to the rule, in order to sign during the 2012-13 signing period, he would have had to register with MLB by May 1st of this year. If he didn't register, he would have to wait until July 2, 2013 to be signed.

 

How exactly does rule apply in Otani's case? We don't know if he registered with MLB prior to May 1st, but assuming he didn't, it sounds like he wouldn't be able to sign with a team until July 2, 2013. Does the fact that he graduated high school somehow change how the rule below is applied? Is there some way to find out if he did register with MLB before the deadline?

Baseball America[/url]"]By now, players who will be old enough to sign on July 2 (2012) must have registered with Major League Baseball by May 1 (2012). Otherwise they will have to wait until July 2, 2013, to sign. Players who were already eligible to sign—mostly anyone 17 or older, or anyone born before September 1995—do not have to register, but if they sign after July 2, their bonuses will count against a team's bonus pool.

If he is allowed to sign with any team right away, there does seem to be a silver lining or bullet, depending on how you look at it, to these rules further down the page.

Every team has a $2.9 million signing bonus pool for the 2012-13 signing period. Any team that spends more than $2.9 million will be subject to a variety of penalties:

 

• Teams that go 0-5 percent over will pay a 75 percent tax on the overage.

• Teams that go 5-10 percent over will pay the 75 percent tax on the overage and won't be able to sign more than one player for a bonus of more than $500,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.

• Teams that go 10-15 percent over will pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and won't be able to sign any player for a bonus of more than $500,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.

• Teams that go 15 percent or more over will pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and won't be able to sign any player for a bonus of more than $250,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.

That would mean that any team willing to give up signing anyone of significance in 2013-14 and is willing to pay the 100% tax on the overage, could spend whatever they wanted to sign Otani.

 

Since the Cubs will have the 2nd highest IFA budget in 2013-14, they would stand to lose more than most teams by being limited to $250,000 per player signed. And since they are only $665,000 under their limit, they would be paying tax on just about every dollar spent on Otani making him more expensive to the Cubs than some other teams. But, it appears, if they wanted to, they could still back up the Brinks truck for this kid.

 

For those IFA experts out there, did I get anything wrong?

[CubsWin]

I can't find an updated list of international free agent signings anywhere. Does anyone know where one can be gotten in order to verify who has what left to spend?

[CubsWin]

Does Otani strike anyone as a player worth breaking the bank for? From what I've gathered, he lacks control of a very speedy pitch and that's about it. That's impressive at 18 years old, but he's still quite risky in my estimation.

[Guest]

From what I've read, he strikes me as Colt Griffin.

[Guest]

Does Otani strike anyone as a player worth breaking the bank for? From what I've gathered, he lacks control of a very speedy pitch and that's about it. That's impressive at 18 years old, but he's still quite risky in my estimation.

He's not worth losing parts of next year's money.

[Guest]

I can't find an updated list of international free agent signings anywhere. Does anyone know where one can be gotten in order to verify who has what left to spend?

Nope.

[Guest]

Pretty much agree with this: http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2012/10/otani-may-be-out-of-cubs-reach-but-could-open-the-door-for-others/

[jersey cubs fan]

Pretty much agree with this: http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2012/10/otani-may-be-out-of-cubs-reach-but-could-open-the-door-for-others/

 

What Otani's decision means, however, is that perhaps more and more Japanese amateurs will take this route. Somebody had to be the first to test the waters and Otani has done that.

 

Kind of odd that the first to test the waters would coincide with international budgets being slashed.

[Guest]

Didn't Tazawa already do this?

[Guest]

Jim Callis on Otani:

 

Ask BA[/url]"]Otani was the potential No. 1 overall pick in this week's Japanese draft until he announced yesterday that he plans to play in the United States. The 18-year-old righthander is extremely athletic and projectable at 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds, and his fastball has been clocked in the upper 90s. He also throws a slider and a splitter, though his secondary pitches and command are still works in progress. After the Dodgers met with Otani in September, assistant GM Logan White told the Japanese press that Otani had the talent to be the top overall choice in the MLB draft.

 

Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams get $2.9 million with which to sign international amateurs. But unlike the restrictions for exceeding draft bonus pools, which could cost a club its next two first-round choices, the penalties for surpassing international bonus pools aren't as harsh. A team that blows past its international pool by 15 percent of more would pay a 100-percent tax on the overage and be forbidden to pay an international amateur more than $250,000 during next year's signing period.

 

For a player with Otani's upside, that's not much of a deterrent. Also consider that in the draft, a player of his caliber would be available only to the teams choosing at the very top. On the worldwide market, all 30 teams are in play. Clubs accustomed to picking at the bottom of the draft may be willing to pay dearly for the opportunity to sign him.

 

Three teams—the Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox—have met with Otani in Japan, and he said yesterday that he plans on signing with one of them. We don't have access to how much money clubs have remaining in their international bonus pools, but Texas appears to have the most among those three teams. (The Rangers' $4.5 million signing of Beras doesn't count against the pool because it happened in February.) Boston, which spent a combined $1.36 million on Dominican righthander Jose Almonte, Dominican shortstop Wendell Rijo and Venezuelan lefty Dedgar Jimenez, has the least money among the three clubs.

 

But as I said, I don't think cap space is going to matter when it comes to signing Otani. For the same reason, I don't think he'll have to wait until next year's signing period to maximize his money. He'll need some time to develop, but Otani has a special arm and will get paid accordingly.

[Sammys Boombox]

Jim Callis on Otani:

 

Ask BA[/url]"]Otani was the potential No. 1 overall pick in this week's Japanese draft until he announced yesterday that he plans to play in the United States. The 18-year-old righthander is extremely athletic and projectable at 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds, and his fastball has been clocked in the upper 90s. He also throws a slider and a splitter, though his secondary pitches and command are still works in progress. After the Dodgers met with Otani in September, assistant GM Logan White told the Japanese press that Otani had the talent to be the top overall choice in the MLB draft.

 

Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams get $2.9 million with which to sign international amateurs. But unlike the restrictions for exceeding draft bonus pools, which could cost a club its next two first-round choices, the penalties for surpassing international bonus pools aren't as harsh. A team that blows past its international pool by 15 percent of more would pay a 100-percent tax on the overage and be forbidden to pay an international amateur more than $250,000 during next year's signing period.

 

For a player with Otani's upside, that's not much of a deterrent. Also consider that in the draft, a player of his caliber would be available only to the teams choosing at the very top. On the worldwide market, all 30 teams are in play. Clubs accustomed to picking at the bottom of the draft may be willing to pay dearly for the opportunity to sign him.

 

Three teams—the Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox—have met with Otani in Japan, and he said yesterday that he plans on signing with one of them. We don't have access to how much money clubs have remaining in their international bonus pools, but Texas appears to have the most among those three teams. (The Rangers' $4.5 million signing of Beras doesn't count against the pool because it happened in February.) Boston, which spent a combined $1.36 million on Dominican righthander Jose Almonte, Dominican shortstop Wendell Rijo and Venezuelan lefty Dedgar Jimenez, has the least money among the three clubs.

 

But as I said, I don't think cap space is going to matter when it comes to signing Otani. For the same reason, I don't think he'll have to wait until next year's signing period to maximize his money. He'll need some time to develop, but Otani has a special arm and will get paid accordingly.

 

It seems to me that teams that had the approach of spending big in the international FA market before the new CBA will pick and choose seasons that they will and will not go over budget, trying to maximize the years they go over knowing they will take themselves out of the running for the best prospects the following season. I wonder if we'll see years where there are 3 or 4 highly coveted international FA and one team decides that getting them all is worth the penalties. Once you are limiting yourself to the $250k per player, and money isn't an issue, I don't see what would keep teams from doing it.

[Guest]

Ben Badler with a comprehensive story on Otani: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2614235.html

 

Says that talent-wise, he's behind Giolito, Fried and McCullers and more along the lines of a late first round prep arm from the 2012 draft. He is better than all the IFA arms who signed this year. But, he isn't the best high school senior pitcher in Japan - that honor goes to Shintato Fujinami, who hasn't shown interest in coming to America. Also, Badler says Otani is behind Matsuzaka and Darvish at the same time.

 

Rangers have all their IFA money and Dodgers almost all of theirs (about $400,000 less than the Rangers). Cubs were listed amongst teams who have done a lot in Asia recently but don't have the IFA pool space to pull off an Otani signing.

[Clem Fandango]

Shohei Otani intends to pursue a career in MLB, but that won’t stop a Japanese team from selecting him in the upcoming amateur draft for NPB teams. Masao Yamada, the general manager for the Nippon Ham Fighters, said he intends to select the highly-regarded 18-year-old with the first overall selection in the upcoming draft, according to a Sanspo report passed along by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker.

 

If an NPB team drafts Otani, he would be prevented from signing with an MLB team for several months. The drafting team would have the rights to the right-hander until the end of March, 2013 under an agreement between MLB and NPB. If he declines to sign with an NPB team, MLB teams will be able to bid on his as a free agent. Teams will be subject to international spending restrictions, but as Jim Callis of Baseball America explained this week, those restrictions won’t necessarily be a major deterrent.

 

The Red Sox, Rangers and Dodgers appear to have some interest in Otani. The Angels don’t seem interested.

 

If that does happen and he's delayed from signing with an MLB team until the end of March, doesn't the pool of money for IFA signings reset for every team (or something, I'm clueless on the rules for this)?

[Guest]

If that does happen and he's delayed from signing with an MLB team until the end of March, doesn't the pool of money for IFA signings reset for every team (or something, I'm clueless on the rules for this)?

 

It re-sets on 7/2/2013, though no international free agents can be signed for the week before that.

 

Do you have a link for your story? Thanks.

[davell]

AZPhil did a great recap on how the upcoming IFA bonus pools will work. I'm on my cell, but someone should eventually post it here. Each team will have 4 signing bonus values of equal amounts. (team amounts are different, based on worst record to best). But a team's total signing pool is divided into 4 equal parts. They can be traded, but only as an entire 1/4. So if we make a trade for more IFA money, we'll acquire a 1/4 of a teams entire budget. Again, you can only trade for up to half of your original budget. And evidently, you can't trade for more money than you have left to spend either. So I guess a late July deadline trade could be problematic, in acquiring more IFA money, if we've made early splashes.

[Clem Fandango]

If that does happen and he's delayed from signing with an MLB team until the end of March, doesn't the pool of money for IFA signings reset for every team (or something, I'm clueless on the rules for this)?

 

It re-sets on 7/2/2013, though no international free agents can be signed for the week before that.

 

Do you have a link for your story? Thanks.

 

Was from MLBTR, but here's their source...

 

http://www.npbtracker.com/2012/10/report-nippon-ham-intends-to-draft-otani/

[Guest]

Thanks for the link, The Logan. NPB Tracker is fantastic.

 

The Nippon Ham Fighters just drafter Otani #1 overall in the NPB draft.

[CubsInNC]

The Nippon Ham Fighters, Yu Darvish’s former team, chose Otani in the first round of Thursday’s draft even though the 6-foot-4 right-hander had already said he plans to pursue a career in the major leagues.

 

The 18-year-old Otani says “My feelings haven’t changed. I’m grateful that they appreciate me, but it doesn’t change my desire to play in America.”

 

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2012/10/25/otani-drafted-in-japan/

[Guest]

If that does happen and he's delayed from signing with an MLB team until the end of March, doesn't the pool of money for IFA signings reset for every team (or something, I'm clueless on the rules for this)?

 

It re-sets on 7/2/2013, though no international free agents can be signed for the week before that.

 

Do you have a link for your story? Thanks.

 

would something stop him from waiting until july to sign when more teams have a shot at him?

 

 

i guess not, since a team who would have a small pool in 2013 anyway would just blow the doors of the restrictions without caring much

[Guest]

If that does happen and he's delayed from signing with an MLB team until the end of March, doesn't the pool of money for IFA signings reset for every team (or something, I'm clueless on the rules for this)?

 

It re-sets on 7/2/2013, though no international free agents can be signed for the week before that.

 

Do you have a link for your story? Thanks.

 

would something stop him from waiting until july to sign when more teams have a shot at him?

 

 

i guess not, since a team who would have a small pool in 2013 anyway would just blow the doors of the restrictions without caring much

 

No, only the desire to sign sooner. Teams like the Cubs will also have more than the full $2.9 allotment this year, too.

 

Nippon Ham drafting him probably helps the Cubs minute chances of signing him.

[Guest]

Looks like Otani can sign with a big league team right away despite being picked in the NPB draft.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/10/despite-being-drafted-shohei-otani-can-sign-any-time/