Trading Marlon Byrd

[Little Slide Rooter]

Now if we did keep Garza and sign Fielder I think we could have a decent team. Garza, Z, Demp, and Wood would be a solid 1-4 in the rotation and Cashner or Samardzia could be very good 5s. I guess we could get something for Wells if we got something for Gorz. We have the pieces for a strong bullpen too. As for the lineup, if we signed Fielder it would be nice to have one more big bat but DeJesus, Castro, Fielder, Soto, Soriano, Stewart, Byrd, Barney would be well balanced if nothing else and if we were contending in the summer who knows what will be available at the deadline and if not, then we can have a good old fashioned fire sale and probably get as much if not a bit more than if we did it now. I think that Theo is trying to avoid that type of band aid team out of principle, but my point is that we certainly wouldn't enter the season as favorites, there isn't any urgency to have a fire sale at this time.

[Beer Kaese]

Now if we did keep Garza and sign Fielder I think we could have a decent team. Garza, Z, Demp, and Wood would be a solid 1-4 in the rotation and Cashner or Samardzia could be very good 5s. I guess we could get something for Wells if we got something for Gorz. We have the pieces for a strong bullpen too. As for the lineup, if we signed Fielder it would be nice to have one more big bat but DeJesus, Castro, Fielder, Soto, Soriano, Stewart, Byrd, Barney would be well balanced if nothing else and if we were contending in the summer who knows what will be available at the deadline and if not, then we can have a good old fashioned fire sale and probably get as much if not a bit more than if we did it now. I think that Theo is trying to avoid that type of band aid team out of principle, but my point is that we certainly wouldn't enter the season as favorites, there isn't any urgency to have a fire sale at this time.

 

I'm glad you are not the GM. I wouldn't go into the season thinking "one more guy".

[CubsWin]

All we have to do to match 07/08 success is make the playoffs. We can still do that by 2013. The rest of this off season could change that, but no reason to start punting 2013 also.

 

Who can we count on in 2013? Assuming Garza, Byrd, and Marmol are traded at some point, we will have Castro, Dejesus, Soto (possibly), Shark, Cashner, Russell (possibly) and T. Wood.

1B - ?, 2B - Barney (adequate), SS- Castro, 3B - Stewart (?), OF - Soriano, Dejesus, Jackson (?), Sczur (?), Sappelt (?), C- Soto/Castillo/Clevenger, Rotation - Wood, Wells (possibly), McNutt (?), prospect from Garza trade (?), FA/Prospect (?), Bullpen- Russell (possibly), Shark, Cashner, and then a lot of prospects (????????).

 

I'm not punting on 2013, but it sure looks like the FO is.

Sure, if they didn't make any more trades or signings in the next year, then, yeah...

 

They would have to trade many of the prospects that they just acquired or developed because there's nothing left on the roster that's going to get anything in return. As for signings FAs , they would need at least 4 top FAs next year (2 pitchers and 2 position players) to have a real shot. Both of those ideas seem to be the opposite of what Theo wants to do.

What if there were only two FAs signed (a starter and a 1B), the kind that fit with ? What if the return on trading Garza, Byrd, Marmol and possibly Soto provided the Cubs with a decent BOR starting pitcher, a TOR prospect that was not too far away, a very good position player prospect (preferably C or 3B) and some good low A ball prospects?

 

It is certainly possible that by 2013 Cashner will be stretched out to be in the rotation. So the Cubs would be looking at a rotation of the FA signing, the TOR prospect, Travis Wood, acquired BOR starter, and one of Cashner/Shark/McNutt/Wells. That rotation is not a championship rotation on paper but its not punting either? That's a rotation that is set to improve with age and compete now.

 

The line-up would be:

 

C - Castillo/acquired top prospect

1B - FA signing (Fielder)

2B - whoever it is will likely be league average or below

SS - Castro

3B - Stewart/acquired top prospect

LF - Soriano

CF - Jackson

RF - DeJesus

 

That line-up could suck if Castillo/Stewart and Brett Jackson suck. If they're good, that line-up may not be championship caliber on paper, but it is far from punting.

 

I think its certainly possible that Theo and Co. do wind up punting on 2013 as well. But that is yet to be seen. And, frankly, if they think that Fielder isn't the type of player they want to bet on and if they don't like any of the free agent pitcher's next season, which is unlikely, then I would want them to punt on 2013 and build this team the right way and not handcuff the Cubs with player's they'll regret having signed just so that they wouldn't look like they were giving up on winning for a couple of seasons.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Now if we did keep Garza and sign Fielder I think we could have a decent team. Garza, Z, Demp, and Wood would be a solid 1-4 in the rotation and Cashner or Samardzia could be very good 5s. I guess we could get something for Wells if we got something for Gorz. We have the pieces for a strong bullpen too. As for the lineup, if we signed Fielder it would be nice to have one more big bat but DeJesus, Castro, Fielder, Soto, Soriano, Stewart, Byrd, Barney would be well balanced if nothing else and if we were contending in the summer who knows what will be available at the deadline and if not, then we can have a good old fashioned fire sale and probably get as much if not a bit more than if we did it now. I think that Theo is trying to avoid that type of band aid team out of principle, but my point is that we certainly wouldn't enter the season as favorites, there isn't any urgency to have a fire sale at this time.

 

I'm glad you are not the GM. I wouldn't go into the season thinking "one more guy".

 

Why? I'm suggestin that we sign Fielder who would be a guy to rebuild around going that route and simply playing wait and see for 6-7 months on a potential fire sale when much of what we have would have the same trade value, in some cases more depending on who needs what.

[Backtobanks]

All we have to do to match 07/08 success is make the playoffs. We can still do that by 2013. The rest of this off season could change that, but no reason to start punting 2013 also.

 

Who can we count on in 2013? Assuming Garza, Byrd, and Marmol are traded at some point, we will have Castro, Dejesus, Soto (possibly), Shark, Cashner, Russell (possibly) and T. Wood.

1B - ?, 2B - Barney (adequate), SS- Castro, 3B - Stewart (?), OF - Soriano, Dejesus, Jackson (?), Sczur (?), Sappelt (?), C- Soto/Castillo/Clevenger, Rotation - Wood, Wells (possibly), McNutt (?), prospect from Garza trade (?), FA/Prospect (?), Bullpen- Russell (possibly), Shark, Cashner, and then a lot of prospects (????????).

 

I'm not punting on 2013, but it sure looks like the FO is.

Sure, if they didn't make any more trades or signings in the next year, then, yeah...

 

They would have to trade many of the prospects that they just acquired or developed because there's nothing left on the roster that's going to get anything in return. As for signings FAs , they would need at least 4 top FAs next year (2 pitchers and 2 position players) to have a real shot. Both of those ideas seem to be the opposite of what Theo wants to do.

What if there were only two FAs signed (a starter and a 1B), the kind that fit with ? What if the return on trading Garza, Byrd, Marmol and possibly Soto provided the Cubs with a decent BOR starting pitcher, a TOR prospect that was not too far away, a very good position player prospect (preferably C or 3B) and some good low A ball prospects?

 

It is certainly possible that by 2013 Cashner will be stretched out to be in the rotation. So the Cubs would be looking at a rotation of the FA signing, the TOR prospect, Travis Wood, acquired BOR starter, and one of Cashner/Shark/McNutt/Wells. That rotation is not a championship rotation on paper but its not punting either? That's a rotation that is set to improve with age and compete now.

 

The line-up would be:

 

C - Castillo/acquired top prospect

1B - FA signing (Fielder)

2B - whoever it is will likely be league average or below

SS - Castro

3B - Stewart/acquired top prospect

LF - Soriano

CF - Jackson

RF - DeJesus

 

That line-up could suck if Castillo/Stewart and Brett Jackson suck. If they're good, that line-up may not be championship caliber on paper, but it is far from punting.

 

I think its certainly possible that Theo and Co. do wind up punting on 2013 as well. But that is yet to be seen. And, frankly, if they think that Fielder isn't the type of player they want to bet on and if they don't like any of the free agent pitcher's next season, which is unlikely, then I would want them to punt on 2013 and build this team the right way and not handcuff the Cubs with player's they'll regret having signed just so that they wouldn't look like they were giving up on winning for a couple of seasons.

 

You had better be signing a real ace for the rotation because Wood/Wells/Shark are BOR starters and Jays prospect/McNutt/Cashner are all questions marks. As for the offense, you had better keep your fingers crossed with Jackson, Castillo, Stewart, and Soriano in the lineup.

[CubsWin]

Who can we count on in 2013? Assuming Garza, Byrd, and Marmol are traded at some point, we will have Castro, Dejesus, Soto (possibly), Shark, Cashner, Russell (possibly) and T. Wood.

1B - ?, 2B - Barney (adequate), SS- Castro, 3B - Stewart (?), OF - Soriano, Dejesus, Jackson (?), Sczur (?), Sappelt (?), C- Soto/Castillo/Clevenger, Rotation - Wood, Wells (possibly), McNutt (?), prospect from Garza trade (?), FA/Prospect (?), Bullpen- Russell (possibly), Shark, Cashner, and then a lot of prospects (????????).

 

I'm not punting on 2013, but it sure looks like the FO is.

Sure, if they didn't make any more trades or signings in the next year, then, yeah...

 

They would have to trade many of the prospects that they just acquired or developed because there's nothing left on the roster that's going to get anything in return. As for signings FAs , they would need at least 4 top FAs next year (2 pitchers and 2 position players) to have a real shot. Both of those ideas seem to be the opposite of what Theo wants to do.

What if there were only two FAs signed (a starter and a 1B), the kind that fit with ? What if the return on trading Garza, Byrd, Marmol and possibly Soto provided the Cubs with a decent BOR starting pitcher, a TOR prospect that was not too far away, a very good position player prospect (preferably C or 3B) and some good low A ball prospects?

 

It is certainly possible that by 2013 Cashner will be stretched out to be in the rotation. So the Cubs would be looking at a rotation of the FA signing, the TOR prospect, Travis Wood, acquired BOR starter, and one of Cashner/Shark/McNutt/Wells. That rotation is not a championship rotation on paper but its not punting either? That's a rotation that is set to improve with age and compete now.

 

The line-up would be:

 

C - Castillo/acquired top prospect

1B - FA signing (Fielder)

2B - whoever it is will likely be league average or below

SS - Castro

3B - Stewart/acquired top prospect

LF - Soriano

CF - Jackson

RF - DeJesus

 

That line-up could suck if Castillo/Stewart and Brett Jackson suck. If they're good, that line-up may not be championship caliber on paper, but it is far from punting.

 

I think its certainly possible that Theo and Co. do wind up punting on 2013 as well. But that is yet to be seen. And, frankly, if they think that Fielder isn't the type of player they want to bet on and if they don't like any of the free agent pitcher's next season, which is unlikely, then I would want them to punt on 2013 and build this team the right way and not handcuff the Cubs with player's they'll regret having signed just so that they wouldn't look like they were giving up on winning for a couple of seasons.

 

You had better be signing a real ace for the rotation because Wood/Wells/Shark are BOR starters and Jays prospect/McNutt/Cashner are all questions marks. As for the offense, you had better keep your fingers crossed with Jackson, Castillo, Stewart, and Soriano in the lineup.

That's exactly what I said. As of now, the FA pitchers available next off season are an impressive list. (Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver, etc.) Plus, question marks aren't always a bad thing, especially good questions marks like Cashner, Shark, Travis Wood, McNutt, Brett Jackson, Stewart and Castillo. They are all young enough to still be improving. Taking a chance to see what they can do is far from giving up or as you put it "punting".

 

If Matt Cain, Prince Fielder and the haul the Cubs get back from trading Garza, Marmol, Byrd and possibly Soto are added to young talented players with a chance like Cashner, Travis Wood, McNutt, Brett Jackson, etc., who's to say that team definitely can't compete in 2013?

 

Might they all suck? Yep. In which case, say good-bye to 2013. But if enough of them don't, Theo and Jed should be able to put enough talent around them via free agency to have a team with a chance by 2013 while building for a dynastic future at the same time.

[dew1679666265]

Dempster? Are you serious?

 

Dempster had a rocky year last year, but a large part of it was bad luck and bad defense. His peripherals were pretty well in line with the rest of his career, so there's plenty of reason to believe he could rebound entering next season. How good will he be beyond 2012 however? I don't know, but it's not all that outlandish to think he could be a decent middle of the rotation guy going forward.

[Beer Kaese]

Now if we did keep Garza and sign Fielder I think we could have a decent team. Garza, Z, Demp, and Wood would be a solid 1-4 in the rotation and Cashner or Samardzia could be very good 5s. I guess we could get something for Wells if we got something for Gorz. We have the pieces for a strong bullpen too. As for the lineup, if we signed Fielder it would be nice to have one more big bat but DeJesus, Castro, Fielder, Soto, Soriano, Stewart, Byrd, Barney would be well balanced if nothing else and if we were contending in the summer who knows what will be available at the deadline and if not, then we can have a good old fashioned fire sale and probably get as much if not a bit more than if we did it now. I think that Theo is trying to avoid that type of band aid team out of principle, but my point is that we certainly wouldn't enter the season as favorites, there isn't any urgency to have a fire sale at this time.

 

I'm glad you are not the GM. I wouldn't go into the season thinking "one more guy".

 

Why? I'm suggestin that we sign Fielder who would be a guy to rebuild around going that route and simply playing wait and see for 6-7 months on a potential fire sale when much of what we have would have the same trade value, in some cases more depending on who needs what.

 

Do you think Soto and Soriano batting 4 and 5 is a contender? I don't.

[JeffH]

Soto and Soriano batting 4 and 5 is an independent league team.

[Beer Kaese]

Dempster? Are you serious?

 

Dempster had a rocky year last year, but a large part of it was bad luck and bad defense. His peripherals were pretty well in line with the rest of his career, so there's plenty of reason to believe he could rebound entering next season. How good will he be beyond 2012 however? I don't know, but it's not all that outlandish to think he could be a decent middle of the rotation guy going forward.

 

I hope Dempster does do well so we can trade him from something good.

 

He had a career when he started that flippy glove gimmic. I've seen enough. Dempster to the Dumpster for whatever we can get.

[Rob]

Reading over at Sons of Sam Horn, I've seen more than one post suggesting that the Red Sox might take on Byrd and his salary in order to lower the cost of prospects they'd have to give up in a Garza trade. Is NSBB usually this delusional?

 

Byrd has been worth 6.4 WAR over the last two years for us, and that's despite missing 25% of last season after his face got exploded. He's a slightly above league average player getting paid roughly 50% of what he's worth. Why in the hell would anybody think he's got negative trade value?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Reading over at Sons of Sam Horn, I've seen more than one post suggesting that the Red Sox might take on Byrd and his salary in order to lower the cost of prospects they'd have to give up in a Garza trade. Is NSBB usually this delusional?

 

Byrd has been worth 6.4 WAR over the last two years for us, and that's despite missing 25% of last season after his face got exploded. He's a slightly above league average player getting paid roughly 50% of what he's worth. Why in the hell would anybody think he's got negative trade value?

 

More importantly, they simply don't get the fact that we're only trying to move Garza for a monster prospect package and by no means a salary dump of any kind. Now if they want to take Soriano and his entire salary off our hands to lower the prospect package, then we'll talk.

[davell]

Send Byrd to the Nats with Destin Hood as the centerpiece coming back.

[Redfoot]

A dusty hoody as the centerpiece coming back would work too.

[Little Slide Rooter]

A dusty hoody as the centerpiece coming back would work too.

 

Not quite sure what that even meant.

[mul21]

A dusty hoody as the centerpiece coming back would work too.

 

Not quite sure what that even meant.

 

Pot, meet kettle.

[dew1679666265]

He had a career when he started that flippy glove gimmic. I've seen enough. Dempster to the Dumpster for whatever we can get.

 

Dempster had an exceptional year in 2008, but it's not like he fell into complete mediocrity after that.

 

2008: 2.96/3.41/3.69 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 8.14 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 - 5.2 fWAR

2009: 3.65/3.87/3.76 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 7.74 K/9, 2.93 BB/9 - 3.7 fWAR

2010: 3.85/3.99/3.74 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 8.69 K/9, 3.50 BB/9 - 3.4 fWAR

2011: 4.80/3.91/3.70 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 8.50 K/9, 3.65 BB/9 - 2.8 fWAR

 

Going by ERA, he's gotten worse each year and was pretty bad in 2011. However, the peripherals say something completely different. His WAR has gotten worse each year, but it's still pretty respectable and his K/9 and BB/9 have remained pretty consistent. He's not a guy I'm building around, but he's not a guy I'm looking to dump for nothing either.

[Sammy Sofa]

BUT HIS NAME IS SO CLOSE TO BEING DUMPSTER.

[Guest]

Dempster? Are you serious?

 

Dempster had a rocky year last year, but a large part of it was bad luck and bad defense. His peripherals were pretty well in line with the rest of his career, so there's plenty of reason to believe he could rebound entering next season. How good will he be beyond 2012 however? I don't know, but it's not all that outlandish to think he could be a decent middle of the rotation guy going forward.

 

I hope Dempster does do well so we can trade him from something good.

 

He had a career when he started that flippy glove gimmic. I've seen enough. Dempster to the Dumpster for whatever we can get.

 

Clueless.

[TruffleShuffle]

Gville cub needed for rebuttal to dew's non-clueless post.

[Little Slide Rooter]

BUT HIS NAME IS SO CLOSE TO BEING DUMPSTER.

 

Nothing wrong with a little originality

 

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e67/ndistops/Dumpster.jpg

[Beer Kaese]

He had a career when he started that flippy glove gimmic. I've seen enough. Dempster to the Dumpster for whatever we can get.

 

Dempster had an exceptional year in 2008, but it's not like he fell into complete mediocrity after that.

 

2008: 2.96/3.41/3.69 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 8.14 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 - 5.2 fWAR

2009: 3.65/3.87/3.76 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 7.74 K/9, 2.93 BB/9 - 3.7 fWAR

2010: 3.85/3.99/3.74 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 8.69 K/9, 3.50 BB/9 - 3.4 fWAR

2011: 4.80/3.91/3.70 ERA/FIP/xFIP - 8.50 K/9, 3.65 BB/9 - 2.8 fWAR

 

Going by ERA, he's gotten worse each year and was pretty bad in 2011. However, the peripherals say something completely different. His WAR has gotten worse each year, but it's still pretty respectable and his K/9 and BB/9 have remained pretty consistent. He's not a guy I'm building around, but he's not a guy I'm looking to dump for nothing either.

 

He's peaked and is in decline and I hope he has another great year in the final year of his contract to we can get more than he is worth going forward.

[Sammy Sofa]

PUT HIM IN THAT DUMPSTER.

[dew1679666265]

He's peaked and is in decline and I hope he has another great year in the final year of his contract to we can get more than he is worth going forward.

 

He probably is in decline, but his numbers still compare favorably to a guy like Buerhle (less WAR, however). I'm not debating whether he's in decline, however, I'm debating whether or not we should dump him for "whatever we can get." And like I said before, given his graceful decline and the type of pitcher he is, if he puts up another 2.5 WAR or better season this year and we don't get a worthwhile offer for him at the deadline, I wouldn't be opposed to seeing if he would be open to a "hometown" deal of some type (2/15-20 maybe?).

[Rob]

I just wrote up a quick retrospective of Byrd's career with the Cubs and a quick examination of his trade value. If you're interested click here.