Trading Dempster?

[David]

Would have to be a team that knows its FIP stuff, I'd imagine. Would be nice if we can get something of any value for his one year. Maybe the prospect of terrible-ness for next year would convince him to waive his NTC.

 

9. Ryan Dempster, Cubs - The Cubs would love to move the 34-year-old and his $14 million paycheck (or part of it). He has pitched more than 200 innings four straight years but his 4.80 ERA and 1.448 WHIP last season aren’t appealing.

 

http://bostonglobe.com/sports/2011/12/25/mlb-teams-haven-finished-shopping-yet/iOGLcnsZiDw6H3pC22tKCM/story.html

Edited December 26, 2011 by David

[SouthSideRyan]

So if we moved all the players we'd love to move we'd have a 50M payroll.

[davell]

So if we moved all the players we'd love to move we'd have a 50M payroll.

And over half of that would be Z and Soriano, who'd be long gone.

[davell]

As far as Dempster goes, I don't really see a trade market out there for him right now. Oswalt and Kuroda are FA, will cost less than what we owe Dempster and wouldn't cost prospects. Not to mention, he may not waive his 10/5 rights anyway. Let the rebuild get started, hope he's having a solid first couple of months and trade him at the deadline, when it's apparent to him we're not going to keep him around anyway. Depending on the trade market, he could be one of the best guys out there.

[javy knows my name]

A Dempster salary dump would piss me off beyond all measure

[Rob]

Meh. My feelings were split when he exercised his option. He's a good player and seems like a good guy too, but I thought the Cubs might have been able to do more with $14 mil. Whatever happens with him, I'll find something to be happy about.

[davell]

Brett said today that he's given the Cubs permission to look at a trade involving him. My guess is our only hope of getting something solid for him would be to pay the majority of his salary and hope the Yanks or Sox see value in not having the luxury tax implications really hitting hard. Maybe eat 10 mill and see if the Yanks would part with Romine?

[Conky]

Going to be tough getting anything of value back for Dempster at 14M. I think if he's traded it will be a salary dump. Paying a substantial portion of his salary offsets the move unless you get a great prospect in return. I don't really see that type of value coming back for Dempster at this stage of his career.

 

Nice to see that he is willing to help the team by allowing a trade, though. Kind of a best of both worlds sito. He gets his money and the Cubs see what they can do with him. Always liked Demp. Will suck to see him go. Sadly, he and his 14M salary don't fit the team's needs presently or moving forward.

[SouthSideRyan]

Meh. My feelings were split when he exercised his option. He's a good player and seems like a good guy too, but I thought the Cubs might have been able to do more with $14 mil. Whatever happens with him, I'll find something to be happy about.

 

Unless we're using a 5 year budget(for example) vs a year to year budget, we don't need Dempster's 14M

[mookie]

The Marlins make sense.

[davell]

The Marlins make sense.

Only if it's clear they won't take Z.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So if we moved all the players we'd love to move we'd have a 50M payroll.

 

Starlin Castro and Matt Garza make 50 million?

[Little Slide Rooter]

The Marlins make sense.

Only if it's clear they won't take Z.

 

Theyd take Z, but he's probably have to be given them. I can see teams being interested in Z with the dwindling pitching market but they probably think hey have more leverage than they do and will give up very little unless desperation hits. Z would be most valuable to us at the deadline. Best case scenario, he realizes that this is a walk year, and while he'd get a 9 mil buyout if he ever wants another contract his 2012 performance depends on it and he pitches as close to an 18 million dollar pitcher as he can. Worst case scenario, he does what he did the past 2 years and in July he has around the same value he does now.

 

As for Dempster, he excersised his portion of the 2012 option forgoing a weak FA class in which he could have got similar to what Buehrle did and could well be the most in demand pitcher currently on the market if he hadn't signed by now because he wanted to pitch here, so he won't be waiving his NTC. Now now anyway. When June-July roll around, assuming we're not in contention which is a realisitic assumption he'll be more to accept a trade. Then again I assume the same with Aramis and Wood last year.

[davell]

The more I've thought about it, here's what I see happening with our "assets". I do think Garza gets dealt and it's either a 3 team deal with SD or we make a separate deal with them for Rizzo. I think we'll find a way to unload Soriano on someone and eat a ton of cash. But, I think that's it for the offseason, as far as selling off goes. There's too many options out there to deal Marmol right now and get value. There's no teams currently in need of a C, so Soto stays put for now. No market for Z or Dempster either, because of the money involved. Even Byrd probably is better off sticking around for now. But, as soon as some injuries pop up or needs to become apparent, I think all of these guys get dealt by the deadline. But, it just doesn't make sense currently, as there just isn't a market for them right now.

[davearm2]

A Dempster salary dump would piss me off beyond all measure

Saving money isn't the Cubs' motivation here.

[dew1679666265]

A Dempster salary dump would piss me off beyond all measure

Saving money isn't the Cubs' motivation here.

 

If they moved him now, I think the likelihood is that the primary motivation would be a salary dump. I just don't see a team giving us what Demp is worth coming off the poor traditional numbers he posted in 2011. Theo may prove me wrong and sweet-talk a GM into giving something around his real worth, however.

 

I do agree with you, though, that their primary motive is likely asset collection, which is why I think they'll end up moving him sometime before/by the deadline.

[slieb85]

A Dempster salary dump would piss me off beyond all measure

Saving money isn't the Cubs' motivation here.

 

If they moved him now, I think the likelihood is that the primary motivation would be a salary dump. I just don't see a team giving us what Demp is worth coming off the poor traditional numbers he posted in 2011. Theo may prove me wrong and sweet-talk a GM into giving something around his real worth, however.

 

I do agree with you, though, that their primary motive is likely asset collection, which is why I think they'll end up moving him sometime before/by the deadline.

 

 

Say you pay all of his salary to a contending team with a good farm system, and get something you would consider "very good" value back? You're paying $14 million to essentially buy the prospect away from the other team, and the other team gets a good middle of the rotation starter for no financial commitment, and only loses one real prospect. Seems like a trade that could be possible. You just don't normally see it, as teams who usually have fire sales are usually poorer teams that can't afford their now expensive players, and not a wealthy team that was grossly mismanaged for 10 years and in desperate need to restock a system. I'm not able to spend enough time to gain the knowledge to know what type of prospect or package a free year of Demp pitching on some contender could pull, and don't want to make an ass out of myself so I won't even throw out another teams prospects and just use Cubs prospects that I seem to know more about to make this hypothetical.

 

I can either trade Demp to the Yankees (wealthy team, good farm system) for say the level of Castillo (not their 8th or 10th or whatever ranked player mind you, just someone with a similar projection/age/whatever as Castillo) and give no salary relief.

 

Or

 

I can trade Demp to say the Jays for a prospect say on the level of Jackson (again not their 1, just the same projections) and give them $14 million in cash so that they can spend $14 million for someone else to make their big league club better this year, then I'm doing this trade.

 

The money doesn't matter for the Cubs this year, as they are very obviously punting, and given that fact, the year of production from Dempster is worthless, so if you can greatly increase the prospect you get back by spending that $14 million, I don't see how you don't do it.

 

Sorry if this is completely stupid or asinine, but it seemingly makes sense in my head.

[davell]

I'm basing this question on NOT signing Fielder and trading Garza......Where are we going to spend money? Maybe getting Soler and Chen? That'd put our payroll around 105, with probably a 12 mill budget for the draft and IFA after the new CBA. Our baseball budget is evidently around 150 for the major league payroll and draft/IFA. This would leave us 33 mill short. Going on a spending spree on IFA between now and July seems likely, but I'd be shocked if we found a way to spend more than 7 or 8 mill and it may be hard to even do that. So, it leaves us 25 mill leftover. It doesn't make a lot of sense to spend on non impact major league guys, if we're not planning on truly fielding a team capable of contending abd Fielder is the last shot at that and it's certainly arguable we'd need plenty more to go along with him. Only thing I can think of is overspending bigtime on the draft or IFA after July. But, if we suck, losing a probable top 5 pick in 2013 isn't smart either. And IFA alone just doesn't seem likely, plus it could piss off other teams anyway. Maybe there's just nothing left for us to spend on?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Why do we have to spend the money now? Yes, Fielder would make sense for me, but if they don't want him, and there's nothing out there they really want why not save it until something comes along they want? It's not like they have a gift card that expires in the Spring so they must get rid of every penny of it. I still think that Fielders a possobility, and if not, there's Cespedes, Solar, and Chen but if we don't get any of them it's not like we have to blow the wad on either 4 Edwiin Jackson/Casey Kotchman types or even 30 Reed Johnsons and Manny Corpases.

[Conky]

I'm basing this question on NOT signing Fielder and trading Garza......Where are we going to spend money? Maybe getting Soler and Chen? That'd put our payroll around 105, with probably a 12 mill budget for the draft and IFA after the new CBA. Our baseball budget is evidently around 150 for the major league payroll and draft/IFA. This would leave us 33 mill short. Going on a spending spree on IFA between now and July seems likely, but I'd be shocked if we found a way to spend more than 7 or 8 mill and it may be hard to even do that. So, it leaves us 25 mill leftover. It doesn't make a lot of sense to spend on non impact major league guys, if we're not planning on truly fielding a team capable of contending abd Fielder is the last shot at that and it's certainly arguable we'd need plenty more to go along with him. Only thing I can think of is overspending bigtime on the draft or IFA after July. But, if we suck, losing a probable top 5 pick in 2013 isn't smart either. And IFA alone just doesn't seem likely, plus it could piss off other teams anyway. Maybe there's just nothing left for us to spend on?

 

Cespedas will easily cost more than Fukudome. Probably going to take around 12M per or more to pry him away from the Yankees/ Marlins. I'd be fine with that gamble. Soler and Chen will not come cheap either. I could easily see 20M/20M+ being spent on IFA if they decide to go down that path.

[davell]

All 3 of Chen, Cespedes, and Soler will sign major league contracts though. I don't see any scenario where Cespedes costs more than 8 to 10 mill for the 2012 budget and it'd probably be less actually. At worst, signing all 3 puts our major league payroll at 115ish. 15 mill tops for draft/IFA after July and it leaves 20 mill to go. 7 or 8 could go towards more IFA that aren't getting major league deals. Even then, you'd still have lots to play with. Which works out well if we operate on a 5 year budget plan or something similar.

[Guest]

I'm basing this question on NOT signing Fielder and trading Garza......Where are we going to spend money? Maybe getting Soler and Chen? That'd put our payroll around 105, with probably a 12 mill budget for the draft and IFA after the new CBA. Our baseball budget is evidently around 150 for the major league payroll and draft/IFA. This would leave us 33 mill short. Going on a spending spree on IFA between now and July seems likely, but I'd be shocked if we found a way to spend more than 7 or 8 mill and it may be hard to even do that. So, it leaves us 25 mill leftover. It doesn't make a lot of sense to spend on non impact major league guys, if we're not planning on truly fielding a team capable of contending abd Fielder is the last shot at that and it's certainly arguable we'd need plenty more to go along with him. Only thing I can think of is overspending bigtime on the draft or IFA after July. But, if we suck, losing a probable top 5 pick in 2013 isn't smart either. And IFA alone just doesn't seem likely, plus it could piss off other teams anyway. Maybe there's just nothing left for us to spend on?

 

Cespedas will easily cost more than Fukudome. Probably going to take around 12M per or more to pry him away from the Yankees/ Marlins. I'd be fine with that gamble. Soler and Chen will not come cheap either. I could easily see 20M/20M+ being spent on IFA if they decide to go down that path.

 

The Yankees are supposedly not going to be big players (this would fall in line with some of what we've heard about them tightening up and their Darvish bid). Same goes for the Red Sox, according to Brett's latest Cespedes update. Also says the Marlins are divided on whether or not to go after him.

 

I posted the snippets in the Cespedes thread, if you're interested.

[Brett]

Something to keep in mind on a possible Dempster trade - given his age and decline, he's not likely to be the kind of player you'd offer a one-year deal at the average of the top 125 salaries at the end of the year (it was so much easier when we could say "offer arbitration" - anyone yet come up with a shorthand for the new compensation offer?) in order to get draft pick compensation should he go elsewhere. I point that out not only because it impacts his value in trade (lower, since no compensation would be forthcoming after 2012), but also because it means he can be held until mid-season and dealt at the deadline (to get compensation, a guy has to be with the team for the entire season).

 

That is a really convoluted way of saying the Cubs will probably be better served hanging onto Dempster until midseason before looking to deal him, since his value will not be reduced by virtue of not spending the entire season with a single team (because he probably wasn't going to net his team draft pick compensation anyway). I'm told he's open to being traded if the Cubs ask him to accept a trade, but I can only imagine he'd be even more open to it if it was just for a few/couple months at the end of the year.

 

Injury or continued ineffectiveness are obviously the downside risks. But, hey, maybe he starts the year out much better than he has been in recent years, and a couple teams in the race lose a starting pitcher or two, and his value is higher mid-season than it is now.

[JeffH]

If you're going to trade him, trade him now and replace him with Kuroda. Assuming you can avoid giving Kuroda a no-trade clause, you can then trade him also at the deadline.

[dew1679666265]

If you're going to trade him, trade him now and replace him with Kuroda. Assuming you can avoid giving Kuroda a no-trade clause, you can then trade him also at the deadline.

 

Or keep Dempster and sign Kuroda anyway and then trade both at the deadline - after Dempster has had time to build his value back up - since we're looking at being $20-40 million under our expected cap. Obviously if you can get a really good deal go ahead and trade him, but I tend to think it's far more likely we get a better deal at the deadline.