Tigers sign Prince - 9/214 - Heyman

[MSG T]

The contracts that Hendry gave out don't really have much impact on how they spend going forward(maybe a little this offseason, but that's it), but it's not correct to say that they aren't part of the reason the team is in it's current state. The last two offseasons the team hasn't had nearly as much flexibility to add payroll because of all the long term commitments.

 

 

A big part of that isn't the contracts, per se, but how they were managed/dealt with. The Cubs were in the middle of a bunch of those contracts all at the same time, so they didn't have any coming of the books. Now, that helps as they stand now, with a bunch of them coming off within two off-seasons and freeing up a ton of money. And to be honest, having so many guys in the middle of their contracts at once doesn't hurt if they all don't go bad. Aramis spent the bulk of two full season hurt, Z had all of his issues, Fukudome slid downhill each season, Soriano got bad fast, Dempster had his issues.

 

It wasn't so much the contracts, it's who they were given to and what happened with that player that hurt. Basically, to echo what others have said, giving a big contract to a young, good player doesn't hurt, much of the time. Giving a big contract to an older, not so good player, will hurt eventually pretty much all of the time. Soriano's contract, while not hamstringing the Cubs, was foreseeable. Pretty much everyone on here pointed out what that deal would look like the last 2-4 years, the only argument was how long he'd hold some semblance of value. But it wasn't because they handed out an 8-year contract that caused them problems, it was the fact that they gave an 8 year contract to a non-elite 31 year old that had skills that are easily diminished and contact problems. Big difference there.

[KingCubsFan]

All of what you said was true, but we also suck because of the big contracts we gave out.

 

No we don't.

So it's not a problem that we gave superstar money to Soriano and Zambrano, and gave $12 million a year to solid players like Fududome? We're just going to blame this mess all on John Stocksill and Jim Hendry signing guys on the margin like John Grabow?

 

It's not great, but it's not the reason why they suck. They suck because the GM sucked at putting together a baseball team. And they won't suck just because they pay a really good player too much money. You suck when you don't have enough good players, and the Cubs haven't had enough good players in their system in a decade. They drafted like crap and focused on nonsense.

I agree, but these big contracts are some of the most glaring examples of sucking at putting together a baseball team and not having enough good players. When your entire philosophy is flawed, that's when you give players like Soriano 8 year mega deals.

[Sammy Sofa]

The contracts that Hendry gave out don't really have much impact on how they spend going forward(maybe a little this offseason, but that's it), but it's not correct to say that they aren't part of the reason the team is in it's current state. The last two offseasons the team hasn't had nearly as much flexibility to add payroll because of all the long term commitments.

 

But isn't a large part of that due to the proximity to the sale? Do you think the Ricketts likely would be similarly conservative, say, 5 years from now? 10 years from now?

[jersey cubs fan]

If they didn't give out those big contracts they probably would have sucked in 2007 and 2008 as well as 2009 and 2010. The only way they got better than they were in 2005/2006 was by spending and they sucked back then for the same reason they sucked later, their GM was an idiot.

[Sammy Sofa]

All of what you said was true, but we also suck because of the big contracts we gave out.

 

No we don't.

So it's not a problem that we gave superstar money to Soriano and Zambrano, and gave $12 million a year to solid players like Fududome? We're just going to blame this mess all on John Stocksill and Jim Hendry signing guys on the margin like John Grabow?

 

It's not great, but it's not the reason why they suck. They suck because the GM sucked at putting together a baseball team. And they won't suck just because they pay a really good player too much money. You suck when you don't have enough good players, and the Cubs haven't had enough good players in their system in a decade. They drafted like crap and focused on nonsense.

I agree, but these big contracts are some of the most glaring examples of sucking at putting together a baseball team and not having enough good players. When your entire philosophy is flawed, that's when you give players like Soriano 8 year mega deals.

 

Yes and no. Soriano got the deal he did in part to the Tribune telling Hendry to get him by any means necessary. There seems to be credence to the idea that Hendry was pursuing him for less money and fewer years.

[Sammy Sofa]

All of what you said was true, but we also suck because of the big contracts we gave out.

 

No we don't.

So it's not a problem that we gave superstar money to Soriano and Zambrano, and gave $12 million a year to solid players like Fududome?

 

Aren't these years supposed to be the "budget hell" years of the Soriano and Zambrano contracts? And aren't we serious contenders for a one of the two superstar free agents during this time of supposed "budget hell"?

No, the two years prior were the time when our budget was in serious trouble. Hendry admitted it. Remember when we had to defer $5 million dollars for Carlos Pena? And didn't Dempster defer money so we could sign Marlon Byrd?

 

Because of the sale.

[MSG T]

All of what you said was true, but we also suck because of the big contracts we gave out.

 

No we don't.

So it's not a problem that we gave superstar money to Soriano and Zambrano, and gave $12 million a year to solid players like Fududome? We're just going to blame this mess all on John Stocksill and Jim Hendry signing guys on the margin like John Grabow?

 

They drafted like crap and focused on nonsense.

 

 

I'd add the development part also. Drafting free swinging, aggressive hitters with little knowledge of the strike zone and then emphasizing that aggressive style all through the system hurt immensely. See Vitters, Colvin etc. Maybe those guys don't end up much better, but the lack of any organizational philosophy including patience did as much damage as the drafting.

[jersey cubs fan]

I agree, but these big contracts are some of the most glaring examples of sucking at putting together a baseball team and not having enough good players. When your entire philosophy is flawed, that's when you give players like Soriano 8 year mega deals.

 

No they aren't. They were instrumental in the only really successful team Hendry put together. Soriano is the one everybody focuses on because they are blinded by the dollar signs. But Dempster and Zambrano have both been worth a boatload to the Cubs while being here. Hendry messed up just about everywhere else. You don't put all your hopes on young arms and then hire Dusty Freaking Baker. The outfield was an absolute wasteland due to a lack of anything resembling a major league bat coming up through the system, which practically forced Hendry to sign Soriano that offseason. But again, Fielder is not Soriano. Soriano was a highly flawed hitter without a position who was in his 30's. Even with all his flaws, if you signed Soriano to that contract when he was Fielder's age, he would have lived up to the deal and you wouldn't be crying about him. Fielder is not Soriano.

[Guest]

Well, I'm glad you're not the Cubs GM then. We just signed a similar player to Fukudome for a fraction of his deal, and Zambrano was clearly on the decline by the time he got that extension.

 

We only know the first part in hindsight. And Zambrano was freshly turned 26 and coming off 4 straight seasons of 4 WAR, two of which were 5. Yes, he was having a bit of a down year in 07, but to say that at age 26 it was clear that he was on the decline is wrong.

[Guest]

No, the two years prior were the time when our budget was in serious trouble. Hendry admitted it. Remember when we had to defer $5 million dollars for Carlos Pena? And didn't Dempster defer money so we could sign Marlon Byrd?

 

 

We should have been deferring whatever money we could anyway. It's the smart way to manage payroll. And the reason we had so much payroll tied up was having to get so many of our players through free agency. Why did we have to do that? Because our drafting, scouting, and development sucked.

[sneakypower]

i love this

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story/_/id/7347878/the-book-prince-fielder

"The Book," put together by the Scott Boras Corporation, details the free-agent slugger

 

The homage to Fielder is encased in a silver aluminum antimicrobial binder and features black cardstock dividers, metal rivets and the Boras company logo emblazoned in the lower left-hand corner of the cover.

 

http://www.fuelyourmotionography.com/files/american-psycho-business-card-scene.jpg

 

 

...

In the Projections portion of the book, Boras' statistical analysts gaze into the future and point out that in five years, Fielder will have joined Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Mathews, Mel Ott and Babe Ruth as one of six players with 400 homers, 1,000 RBIs and 1,000 walks through age 32. A few pages later, the book projects that Fielder will have 600 homers, 1,700 RBIs and 1,500 walks by age 37. Those totals would place him in the exclusive company of Ruth and Barry Bonds.

"I think they're a curiosity," the GM said. "It's kind of like the Sports Illustrated swimsuit calendar. You look forward to it coming out each year. But you're not really going to do anything about it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well, I'm glad you're not the Cubs GM then. We just signed a similar player to Fukudome for a fraction of his deal, and Zambrano was clearly on the decline by the time he got that extension.

 

"Similar" is an awfully convenient and vague word in this case.

 

We are getting DeJesus at a rather extreme discount because he's 32 and coming off a terrible year. If we assume that neither of those two things have any effect on his 2012, then yes, he provides us similar value to what Fukudome did during his contract.

 

As for Zambrano, "decline" isn't the same as "wasn't worth the contract." He was easily worth the contract until the last two seasons, when Cubs management needed a scapegoat and refused to utilize his value.

[KingCubsFan]

I agree, but these big contracts are some of the most glaring examples of sucking at putting together a baseball team and not having enough good players. When your entire philosophy is flawed, that's when you give players like Soriano 8 year mega deals.

 

No they aren't. They were instrumental in the only really successful team Hendry put together. Soriano is the one everybody focuses on because they are blinded by the dollar signs. But Dempster and Zambrano have both been worth a boatload to the Cubs while being here. Hendry messed up just about everywhere else. You don't put all your hopes on young arms and then hire Dusty Freaking Baker. The outfield was an absolute wasteland due to a lack of anything resembling a major league bat coming up through the system, which practically forced Hendry to sign Soriano that offseason. But again, Fielder is not Soriano. Soriano was a highly flawed hitter without a position who was in his 30's. Even with all his flaws, if you signed Soriano to that contract when he was Fielder's age, he would have lived up to the deal and you wouldn't be crying about him. Fielder is not Soriano.

I never said he was. I support the Cubs signing Fielder to a reasonable deal and preferred him to Pujols. I was originally responding to the premise that the large contracts given out by Hendry aren't part of the reason the Cubs are in the position they are in now. They're not the only reason, and the terrible drafts are a larger part, but they're certainly a part of the problem. Having the 2008 team on your resume where everyone had a career year doesn't excuse those contracts either.

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, I'm glad you're not the Cubs GM then. We just signed a similar player to Fukudome for a fraction of his deal, and Zambrano was clearly on the decline by the time he got that extension.

 

We only know the first part in hindsight. And Zambrano was freshly turned 26 and coming off 4 straight seasons of 4 WAR, two of which were 5. Yes, he was having a bit of a down year in 07, but to say that at age 26 it was clear that he was on the decline is wrong.

 

Fukudome got more money than people expected and wasn't as good as expected. Like Soriano, he was already past 30 when the Cubs went after him, but he was a pretty valuable player for 3/4 of his contract. That was 4 years ago and yet we still don't have confidence in any prospect coming up and filling a corner OF position. When you are able to bring up prospects to take over for the declining overpaid vets, it really isn't a problem at all. They were desperate for corner OF help throughout the 2000s. Had they developed one freaking bat for the spot in all that time we wouldn't be freaking out about Soriano, let alone Fukudome's contract. They had DLee for a decade and weren't able to develop anything resembling a replacement 1B in a decade, that is why we are where we are at 1B. If they sign Fielder and he does suck in 5 years (doubtful, he may not be worth his contract but I doubt he sucks), I have confidence in this group to have somebody ready to at the very least platoon with him to make up for some of the flaws.

 

If you have any confidence in this group's ability to draft and develop, there is no reason to be scared of a potential overpaid veteran 5 years from now.

Edited December 14, 2011 by jersey cubs fan

[ConstableRabbit]

He's going to average 37 HR per season over the next 10 years? Possible but unlikely.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well, I'm glad you're not the Cubs GM then. We just signed a similar player to Fukudome for a fraction of his deal, and Zambrano was clearly on the decline by the time he got that extension.

 

We only know the first part in hindsight. And Zambrano was freshly turned 26 and coming off 4 straight seasons of 4 WAR, two of which were 5. Yes, he was having a bit of a down year in 07, but to say that at age 26 it was clear that he was on the decline is wrong.

 

2008-2011, Zambrano was paid $72.5 million for 13.9 fWAR, for a total cost of $5.22 million per WAR. Considering that they wasted parts of two seasons with their own petulance, I'd say he would have easily been a market-value or better deal for those years.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I never said he was. I support the Cubs signing Fielder to a reasonable deal and preferred him to Pujols. I was originally responding to the premise that the large contracts given out by Hendry aren't part of the reason the Cubs are in the position they are in now. They're not the only reason, and the terrible drafts are a larger part, but they're certainly a part of the problem. Having the 2008 team on your resume where everyone had a career year doesn't excuse those contracts either.

The Cubs can afford a few big contracts. What they can't afford is to fill the remaining roster spots with garbage. That's one thing they have done consistently.

[Guest]

Well, I'm glad you're not the Cubs GM then. We just signed a similar player to Fukudome for a fraction of his deal, and Zambrano was clearly on the decline by the time he got that extension.

 

We only know the first part in hindsight. And Zambrano was freshly turned 26 and coming off 4 straight seasons of 4 WAR, two of which were 5. Yes, he was having a bit of a down year in 07, but to say that at age 26 it was clear that he was on the decline is wrong.

 

You definitely couldn't say he was in decline, but there was a ton of concern about the health of his arm going forward.

 

The Jim Hendry Cubs were a mess. No development from the farm, no real direction with the team, and big money spent on the wrong types of players.

 

It's going to take Theo quite some time to right this wrong. I do not believe Fielder is a poor choice going forward. He fits a major need and is in his prime years. He is someone this team can construct the rest of this team around.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, I'm glad you're not the Cubs GM then. We just signed a similar player to Fukudome for a fraction of his deal, and Zambrano was clearly on the decline by the time he got that extension.

 

We only know the first part in hindsight. And Zambrano was freshly turned 26 and coming off 4 straight seasons of 4 WAR, two of which were 5. Yes, he was having a bit of a down year in 07, but to say that at age 26 it was clear that he was on the decline is wrong.

 

Fukudome got more money than people expected and wasn't as good as expected.

 

Didn't Fukudome reportedly take LESS money than what was being offered to him elsewhere to sign with the Cubs?

[MSG T]

I agree, but these big contracts are some of the most glaring examples of sucking at putting together a baseball team and not having enough good players. When your entire philosophy is flawed, that's when you give players like Soriano 8 year mega deals.

 

No they aren't. They were instrumental in the only really successful team Hendry put together. Soriano is the one everybody focuses on because they are blinded by the dollar signs. But Dempster and Zambrano have both been worth a boatload to the Cubs while being here. Hendry messed up just about everywhere else. You don't put all your hopes on young arms and then hire Dusty Freaking Baker. The outfield was an absolute wasteland due to a lack of anything resembling a major league bat coming up through the system, which practically forced Hendry to sign Soriano that offseason. But again, Fielder is not Soriano. Soriano was a highly flawed hitter without a position who was in his 30's. Even with all his flaws, if you signed Soriano to that contract when he was Fielder's age, he would have lived up to the deal and you wouldn't be crying about him. Fielder is not Soriano.

I never said he was. I support the Cubs signing Fielder to a reasonable deal and preferred him to Pujols. I was originally responding to the premise that the large contracts given out by Hendry aren't part of the reason the Cubs are in the position they are in now. They're not the only reason, and the terrible drafts are a larger part, but they're certainly a part of the problem. Having the 2008 team on your resume where everyone had a career year doesn't excuse those contracts either.

 

 

But how many of those guys had career years? DeRosa? Edmonds had an unexpected monster comeback. Soto had a great season. Who else? Z, Soriano, Ramirez, Lee and Fukudome all had other years that were better, in most cases way better. It wasn't about everyone having career years, it was about everyone being good and, for the most part, healthy.

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, I'm glad you're not the Cubs GM then. We just signed a similar player to Fukudome for a fraction of his deal, and Zambrano was clearly on the decline by the time he got that extension.

 

We only know the first part in hindsight. And Zambrano was freshly turned 26 and coming off 4 straight seasons of 4 WAR, two of which were 5. Yes, he was having a bit of a down year in 07, but to say that at age 26 it was clear that he was on the decline is wrong.

 

Fukudome got more money than people expected and wasn't as good as expected.

 

Didn't Fukudome reportedly take LESS money than what was being offered to him elsewhere to sign with the Cubs?

 

Reportedly, yes. But the dollar figure was higher than most were discussing at the time. I think 4 @ 8-10m was thought to be his price, not 4 @ 12.

[KingCubsFan]

Well, I'm glad you're not the Cubs GM then. We just signed a similar player to Fukudome for a fraction of his deal, and Zambrano was clearly on the decline by the time he got that extension.

 

We only know the first part in hindsight. And Zambrano was freshly turned 26 and coming off 4 straight seasons of 4 WAR, two of which were 5. Yes, he was having a bit of a down year in 07, but to say that at age 26 it was clear that he was on the decline is wrong.

I don't want to derail this thread with Zambrano, but Zambrano was abused by Dusty at an early age and was clearly already declining. Doesn't mean he wasn't a good pitcher anymore, but he was not going to be an ace he was paid to be.

 

FIP 2004-2007: 3.57, 3.70, 4.14, 4.58

 

I'm not a big fan of WAR in general, but from 2004-2007: 4.7, 4.5, 3.9, 2.8.

 

The groundball percentage was dropping, the HR/FB percentage was rising, and the walks were rising. The smart thing would have been to trade him or take the picks given the amount of money he was commanding.

[jersey cubs fan]

But how many of those guys had career years? DeRosa? Edmonds had an unexpected monster comeback. Soto had a great season. Who else? Z, Soriano, Ramirez, Lee and Fukudome all had other years that were better, in most cases way better. It wasn't about everyone having career years, it was about everyone being good and, for the most part, healthy.

 

You also had most everybody in the 28-32 range, with Edmonds as the high end exception and Soto, I believe, on the low end. If the team was ever going to win, that was the year.

[MSG T]

Well, I'm glad you're not the Cubs GM then. We just signed a similar player to Fukudome for a fraction of his deal, and Zambrano was clearly on the decline by the time he got that extension.

 

We only know the first part in hindsight. And Zambrano was freshly turned 26 and coming off 4 straight seasons of 4 WAR, two of which were 5. Yes, he was having a bit of a down year in 07, but to say that at age 26 it was clear that he was on the decline is wrong.

 

Fukudome got more money than people expected and wasn't as good as expected.

 

Didn't Fukudome reportedly take LESS money than what was being offered to him elsewhere to sign with the Cubs?

 

 

I don't remember if it was verified or not, but IIRC, there were reports that he turned down a bigger offer somewhere else to play in Chicago. For some reason I want to say it was the Mets or Dodgers, but I could very well be mistaken.

[Guest]

You definitely couldn't say he was in decline, but there was a ton of concern about the health of his arm going forward.

 

The Jim Hendry Cubs were a mess. No development from the farm, no real direction with the team, and big money spent on the wrong types of players.

 

It's going to take Theo quite some time to right this wrong. I do not believe Fielder is a poor choice going forward. He fits a major need and is in his prime years. He is someone this team can construct the rest of this team around.

 

 

There was? I suppose solely based on the workload, but he was on his way to his 5th straight year of 200IP. I suppose you can argue that that's a reason to be worried about his health, but that's sort of shitty reasoning, considering it's also an example of consistent health.

 

Z was even pretty much worth his contract in hindsight, so yea.