Trading Soriano

[Careless]

Now this from Jon Heyman...

 

Alfonso Soriano's 14 homers since mid-May should have teams interested, but it seems like no one is ever showing interest in the pricey outfielder, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. One rival GM surmised that Chicago could move Soriano if they absorb $44MM of the $46MM owed to him through 2014. One scout suggested that the Rays might be a fit for the 36-year-old.

 

$44 of $46 million? There better be a top prospect in that kind of deal, that's absurd to get next to nothing in return for giving Soriano away for $1 million per year for the rest of the contract.

 

Yeah if there isn't a decent prospect involved, he's more valuable as protection for Rizzo in the lineup.

I feel like I'm missing some bad inside joke.

[davell]

Serious question, since I was the one that it'd be nice to keep him behind Rizzo all year: It's not important to have a solid bat behind Rizzo? There's not a reason for pitchers to pitch around him if there's not a solid hitter behind him? Are there stats on this stuff? Obviously, I'm not disputing anyone here and want to learn about this. I truly thought it was important, so if someone can explain why it's not, I'd really appreciate it.

[Magnetic Curses]

Now this from Jon Heyman...

 

Alfonso Soriano's 14 homers since mid-May should have teams interested, but it seems like no one is ever showing interest in the pricey outfielder, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. One rival GM surmised that Chicago could move Soriano if they absorb $44MM of the $46MM owed to him through 2014. One scout suggested that the Rays might be a fit for the 36-year-old.

 

$44 of $46 million? There better be a top prospect in that kind of deal, that's absurd to get next to nothing in return for giving Soriano away for $1 million per year for the rest of the contract.

 

Yeah if there isn't a decent prospect involved, he's more valuable as protection for Rizzo in the lineup.

 

STOP IT.

 

reminds me of truffle and the thing he's doing now

[Magnetic Curses]

Serious question, since I was the one that it'd be nice to keep him behind Rizzo all year: It's not important to have a solid bat behind Rizzo? There's not a reason for pitchers to pitch around him if there's not a solid hitter behind him? Are there stats on this stuff? Obviously, I'm not disputing anyone here and want to learn about this. I truly thought it was important, so if someone can explain why it's not, I'd really appreciate it.

 

i think the consensus is that good hitters will be pitched around no matter who is hitting behind them and he better be willing to take those walks.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There is a slight protection factor. The expectation would be that his BBs would go slightly up and his SLG would go slightly down with no good hitters behind him, but not enough to make a significant difference. I'm not going to say there's no way that Epstein and Co. consider it an important part of his development to be pitched a certain way, but I'm guessing it doesn't make a big difference.

[davell]

OK, both those make sense. Thanks guys. Now, I fall into the camp of there's no reason to trade him without getting a solid return. He's been too good to give away as it is, on his own, Rizzo not a factor.

[Backtobanks]

There is a slight protection factor. The expectation would be that his BBs would go slightly up and his SLG would go slightly down with no good hitters behind him, but not enough to make a significant difference. I'm not going to say there's no way that Epstein and Co. consider it an important part of his development to be pitched a certain way, but I'm guessing it doesn't make a big difference.

 

Yes his BBs would go up, but his slugging and RBI total would go way down. I'm sure one reason he's batting 3rd (and not 4th or 5th) is so teams won't pitch around Castro.

[A New Era]

For $44 million, if the Cubs could essentially buy a teams #1 prospect, then fine. Other wise forget about it. I mean he's come around and had a really good year, isn't it likely he'll play atleast respectably til the end of his contract? It's ridiculous to give away a guy that's not a clubhouse problem.

[Guest]

Let's assume that the whole protection thing is wholly legitimate, and a lack of protection would have severe negative repercussions. Even then, the implication is that there isn't a plan to have any hitters worthy of hitting #4 in the order besides Soriano for the duration of his contract. And that ignores that Soriano hasn't been a beacon of consistency worthy of a middle of the order spot. Add in the questionable at best assumption, and it's pretty silly that we spend any time talking about this at all.

[Guest]

There is a slight protection factor. The expectation would be that his BBs would go slightly up and his SLG would go slightly down with no good hitters behind him, but not enough to make a significant difference. I'm not going to say there's no way that Epstein and Co. consider it an important part of his development to be pitched a certain way, but I'm guessing it doesn't make a big difference.

 

Yes his BBs would go up, but his slugging and RBI total would go way down. I'm sure one reason he's batting 3rd (and not 4th or 5th) is so teams won't pitch around Castro.

 

No, his slugging might go slightly down. Not way down. As Kyle said, not a significant amount.

[biittner77]

Let's assume that the whole protection thing is wholly legitimate, and a lack of protection would have severe negative repercussions. Even then, the implication is that there isn't a plan to have any hitters worthy of hitting #4 in the order besides Soriano for the duration of his contract. And that ignores that Soriano hasn't been a beacon of consistency worthy of a middle of the order spot. Add in the questionable at best assumption, and it's pretty silly that we spend any time talking about this at all.

 

Who's saying that? Right now, Soriano isn't blocking anyone. If they are paying virtually his entire salary, they can keep him for the time being then release him in the off season or whenever they have an actual prospect that they want to bring up. I doubt anyone believes that Soriano will actually play out the remaining years of his contract. Lost season or not, they still have to field some semblance of a team.

[Guest]

So we're hesitant to trade Soriano for fear that Rizzo won't be protected for 250 PA?

[XZero771679666304]

Let's assume that the whole protection thing is wholly legitimate, and a lack of protection would have severe negative repercussions. Even then, the implication is that there isn't a plan to have any hitters worthy of hitting #4 in the order besides Soriano for the duration of his contract. And that ignores that Soriano hasn't been a beacon of consistency worthy of a middle of the order spot. Add in the questionable at best assumption, and it's pretty silly that we spend any time talking about this at all.

 

Who's saying that? Right now, Soriano isn't blocking anyone. If they are paying virtually his entire salary, they can keep him for the time being then release him in the off season or whenever they have an actual prospect that they want to bring up. I doubt anyone believes that Soriano will actually play out the remaining years of his contract. Lost season or not, they still have to field some semblance of a team.

 

You also have to value the long term above half a season. There's a decent chance this is as good as Soriano is going to be from here on out, and this is a lost season anyway. If you can get something of real value for Soriano, even if you have to pay almost all of his remaining salary, you do it. Especially if you're considering simply releasing him in the offseason.

[rawaction]

So we're hesitant to trade Soriano for fear that Rizzo won't be protected for 250 PA?

Not to mention, the fact that nobody is going to be pitching around a rookie anyway.

[Little Slide Rooter]

OK, both those make sense. Thanks guys. Now, I fall into the camp of there's no reason to trade him without getting a solid return. He's been too good to give away as it is, on his own, Rizzo not a factor.

 

We should be willing to eat as much salary as it takes to get that return. I'm thinking that we could get something like the Sosa or DeRosa packages assuming we eat enough. Te fact is, whatever he does this season, he's not going to fool Theo, Hoyer, or any other big league GM into thinking that he's not a 36 year old with bad knees that's only going to progress into a 37 year old with worse knees.

[StarlinOnYou]

Even if you eat 85-90% of the deal you're likely saving money. He's getting paid one way or the other. Soriano simply doesn't fit. Why slow down this teams rebuild? Eat a lot of the $, get decent prospects in return, and continue to rebuild.

 

If eating some of his salary means cutting into next years spending - I am totally fine with that. As long as we get a solid package in return.

[CUBZ99]

Even if you eat 85-90% of the deal you're likely saving money. He's getting paid one way or the other. Soriano simply doesn't fit. Why slow down this teams rebuild? Eat a lot of the $, get decent prospects in return, and continue to rebuild.

 

If eating some of his salary means cutting into next years spending - I am totally fine with that. As long as we get a solid package in return.

 

It makes sense if you get a good return, but to get rid of him for nothing is dumb. It is not like Soriano is blocking anybody or taking playing time away from a prospect. With the payroll next year standing where it is, there is no reason the team should not be able to pick up some free agents and compete.

[davell]

Just curious, if you could get Travis Snider for Soriano, with us picking up 90% of the contract, do you pull the trigger?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Just curious, if you could get Travis Snider for Soriano, with us picking up 90% of the contract, do you pull the trigger?

 

A month ago? In a heartbeat. The way Soriano's playing now, I'd take Snider as the key piece, but try to get something tossed in. We could also expand the deal.

 

They do need pitching. It's a shame that Volstad and Wells both insisted on being God awful instead of settling for bad. Maholm could appeal to them, but the way he's been pitching for us, that 6 mil team option will be a hell of a value, especially considering that we'll likely have to spring for two additional starting pitchers. There's not a single guy in our system, at least the upper levels, that I'm sold on as a big league stater. Struck's the closest, but I wouldn't expect to see him before next September at the earliest.

[Vanilla Ice]

Just curious, if you could get Travis Snider for Soriano, with us picking up 90% of the contract, do you pull the trigger?

 

A month ago? In a heartbeat. The way Soriano's playing now, I'd take Snider as the key piece, but try to get something tossed in. We could also expand the deal.

 

They do need pitching. It's a shame that Volstad and Wells both insisted on being God awful instead of settling for bad. Maholm could appeal to them, but the way he's been pitching for us, that 6 mil team option will be a hell of a value, especially considering that we'll likely have to spring for two additional starting pitchers. There's not a single guy in our system, at least the upper levels, that I'm sold on as a big league stater. Struck's the closest, but I wouldn't expect to see him before next September at the earliest.

It's amazing how quickly you went from talking about a Snider for Soriano swap to Nick Struck's ETA.

[XZero771679666304]

Just curious, if you could get Travis Snider for Soriano, with us picking up 90% of the contract, do you pull the trigger?

 

Eh, Maybe. Though I'm not convinced Snider isn't a "AAAA" player at this point.

[ctcf]

I would take Jacque Jones

[Guest]

Now this from Jon Heyman...

 

Alfonso Soriano's 14 homers since mid-May should have teams interested, but it seems like no one is ever showing interest in the pricey outfielder, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. One rival GM surmised that Chicago could move Soriano if they absorb $44MM of the $46MM owed to him through 2014. One scout suggested that the Rays might be a fit for the 36-year-old.

 

$44 of $46 million? There better be a top prospect in that kind of deal, that's absurd to get next to nothing in return for giving Soriano away for $1 million per year for the rest of the contract.

 

The media has been beating the whole "Soriano's contract is an albatross" thing to death for a while now and I'm guessing everyone just assumes he's making a ton of money while hitting .220 with little power, a sub-.700 OPS and crappy defense because he can't run without actually looking up how he's doing this year.

[jumbo]

Serious question, since I was the one that it'd be nice to keep him behind Rizzo all year: It's not important to have a solid bat behind Rizzo? There's not a reason for pitchers to pitch around him if there's not a solid hitter behind him? Are there stats on this stuff? Obviously, I'm not disputing anyone here and want to learn about this. I truly thought it was important, so if someone can explain why it's not, I'd really appreciate it.

 

I realize that others have already commented on this, but I have been reading the BP book "Everything you know about baseball is wrong," and they addressed the notion of protection. This is from memory, but I believe the discussion hinged around the expected runs given any situation and the resulting change in expected runs as a result of an intentional/work around walk. The conclusion was that protection is a myth. The hitter being protected would have to be Babe Ruth or Steroid Era Barry Bonds to make it worth walking him.

 

The writing is all from a statistical standpoint. There are clearly game situations in which a guy has been struggling or has match-up splits call for the walk. Early this year I would have walked anybody and everybody to get to Soriano if the Cubs had two outs, but not now.

[biittner77]

Just curious, if you could get Travis Snider for Soriano, with us picking up 90% of the contract, do you pull the trigger?

 

A month ago? In a heartbeat. The way Soriano's playing now, I'd take Snider as the key piece, but try to get something tossed in. We could also expand the deal.

 

They do need pitching. It's a shame that Volstad and Wells both insisted on being God awful instead of settling for bad. Maholm could appeal to them, but the way he's been pitching for us, that 6 mil team option will be a hell of a value, especially considering that we'll likely have to spring for two additional starting pitchers. There's not a single guy in our system, at least the upper levels, that I'm sold on as a big league stater. Struck's the closest, but I wouldn't expect to see him before next September at the earliest.

 

Nobody is giving up anything of value for Soriano. He's on a nice streak right now but he does that from time to time.