Trading Soriano

[toonsterwu]

The problem with dealing with the Orioles is while they are better than us, it's hard for them to be viewed as a contender when they share a time zone with 3 of the best teams in baseball and a 4th that's getting there. For this reason, unless it's at a price that heavily benefits them theres not much use for a guy like Soriano there and they should be more focused on moving their own veterans for young players, and they do have some moveable assets Markakis, Reynolds, Guthrie, and Roberts that would generate some degree of interest as well as Wieters and Jones who they could either build around or move for huge hauls.

 

I'd argue the problem for the Orioles right now is

 

a) Some of their young arms have really faltered and have serious concerns (Matusz/Tillman). They had four young arms they were looking forward to ... right now, of that foursome (the aforementioned duo and Britton/Arrieta), they look to have 1 good starter, 1 inconsistent starter, and 2 gigantic question marks. No team should ever realistically hope that 4/4 top prospect arms should hit, but it sure feel like they expected 3 of them to.

 

b) A relatively weak system. A couple stud guys in Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, but really, this system is pretty bad right now. There's Schoop, a whole bunch of folks from this draft class (which doesn't look that great), Bobby Bundy.

 

c) (and why I responded) A lack of quality trade chips/trade chips they over-value. I'm not sure too many teams are going to fork over the quality assets that the Orioles believe they should get for Nick Markakis and Jeremy Guthrie, but the Orioles aren't moving them unless it's a quality return. Markakis' power decline has a lot of folks alarmed, and he's signed down for fairly big money (3/42 left with an additional option year at 17.5 or a 3 mil buyout). Guthrie's a Randy Wells/Chris Volstad/Travis Wood level pitcher masquerading as an ace and not exactly cheap. Brian Roberts is an injury prone 2nd baseman now, past his prime, and still locked down for 2/20. Reynolds is Mark Reynolds, a poor fieldng slugger.

 

One of the few guys they should trade (only 2 years until FA) is Adam Jones. Jones, though, is a tough guy to value. Orioles look at him as an emerging stud, while a lot of folks look at his as a poor fielding, questionable discipline guy. They want elite chips ... I'm not sure teams are going to give elite chips for him. Good, perhaps. One guy I would move, if I were them, is JJ Hardy, but I doubt they'll do so. I don't know if he can replicate the offensive season he just had, so this might be peak sell time.

 

If they're really worried about Markakis, I'll gladly do a Markakis for Soriano + $10-$15 million trade. Somehow I don't think they're that worried.

 

I don't think the Orioles are THAT worried (and I'm more speaking to general people feeling that Markakis has peaked and is on a decline).

[b_wiggy_66]

Nothing really new, but from Cafardo this morning:

 

"The Cubs are willing to absorb most of the $54MM remaining on Alfonso Soriano's contract in order to faciliate a trade."

[Guest]

Seems pretty crazy, but I also suppose just cutting him loose entirely isn't completely out of the question at this point. Theo clearly wants someone/anyone else manning LF next year.

[bhogg]

if they cut him, how long can they take to pay him? Just finish out the contract or do they have to pay it sooner?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Seems pretty crazy, but I also suppose just cutting him loose entirely isn't completely out of the question at this point. Theo clearly wants someone/anyone else manning LF next year.

 

As long as he can still hit lefties well and hit 25 home runs it would be foolish to just cut him lose. If you're going to do that with such an expensive player, they should be completely useless, IE Oliver Perez and Aaron Rowand. If we were willing to eat the full salary anyway, I'm sure we could get at least another Chris Volstad, and if the other option is just cutting him lose that's clearly the better option. Soriano shouldn't be any less moveable than Zambrano if we eat that much salary, the differences being

 

A. Z only had 1 more year of commitment, but if the other team is paying little to nothing, they can cut him when they're ready. Advantage: Even

B. Zambrano was having obvious problems within the organization, and like Milton Bradley these issues were made more public than they shouldn't have been thus further lowering his value. Soriano doesn't have that problem. Advantage: Soriano

C. Ozzie Guillen and Carlos Zambrano have a great relationship, so if there's anyone who could keep him in line mentally it's Ozzie. Soriano's problems don't stem from emotional issues so that possible fix isn't there. Advantage: Z

D. American league teams have the advantage of being able to carry an extra bat, and the ability to hit lefties alone is often enough to keep guys in the league as long as they're willing to make less money than they have in the past. Of course with Soriano that part doesn't matter because he'd be making 19 mil/year from the Cubs regardless of what he's doing with his time. Advantage: Soriano

[davell]

if they cut him, how long can they take to pay him? Just finish out the contract or do they have to pay it sooner?

You have 18 months to pay him. Same if you trade him and send money towards the other team. The one positive of this, is he's off the books a year earlier. Of course, this and next year's payroll would go up 9 mill, if you cut him or traded him and took on the entire deal. Levine mentioned our payroll looks to be in the 120ish range for 2012, which is fine, if we're allocating monies towards IFA's. But, we're at 110ish right now for the entire 40 man, so cutting Soriano leaves us no room at all, without making trades.

[ctcf]

if they cut him, how long can they take to pay him? Just finish out the contract or do they have to pay it sooner?

You have 18 months to pay him. Same if you trade him and send money towards the other team. The one positive of this, is he's off the books a year earlier. Of course, this and next year's payroll would go up 9 mill, if you cut him or traded him and took on the entire deal. Levine mentioned our payroll looks to be in the 120ish range for 2012, which is fine, if we're allocating monies towards IFA's. But, we're at 110ish right now for the entire 40 man, so cutting Soriano leaves us no room at all, without making trades.

 

110ish? Last number I saw was 102

[davell]

I count the entire 40 man, giving 200,000 to everyone that's not currently in the majors. Some get slightly more, some less, but I average it out to that. Are you counting Silva's buyout and Pena's deferred cash? That's an extra 7 mill right there.

[UMFan83]

Regardless of how viable it is, it sure seems by the rumors coming out, the Cubs have turned their attention to a Soriano trade. I would hope if one is made its done over the next week or so.

[davell]

With the convention starting late this week, I expect a couple of moves before then. Wood to be resigned, being one of them. Which means another move has to be made, to clear a 40 man spot. My guess is Byrd dealt to Washington, Atlanta, or Texas for minor league pitching. I also think this is the make or break time for a Garza trade, with arb numbers coming out next week. I think after that, it'll be time to extend him or trade him at the deadline.

[mul21]

I count the entire 40 man, giving 200,000 to everyone that's not currently in the majors. Some get slightly more, some less, but I average it out to that. Are you counting Silva's buyout and Pena's deferred cash? That's an extra 7 mill right there.

 

Did we ever find out definitively if Pena's deferred money went on the 2011 or 2012 payroll? Last I heard, I thought that is was to be paid in 2011 and it was just deferred to be a one time after the season payment.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I count the entire 40 man, giving 200,000 to everyone that's not currently in the majors. Some get slightly more, some less, but I average it out to that. Are you counting Silva's buyout and Pena's deferred cash? That's an extra 7 mill right there.

 

Did we ever find out definitively if Pena's deferred money went on the 2011 or 2012 payroll? Last I heard, I thought that is was to be paid in 2011 and it was just deferred to be a one time after the season payment.

 

Levine reported that it was being counted against 2012, but not in a definitive enough way for some to be completely sure.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2011 was the year a lot of long-time Cubs caught up with their reputations.

 

Soriano's defense has probably dipped below average now, and it's only going to get worse. He had some bad BABIP luck last year, but he's definitely no longer *that* good of a hitter.

 

If we don't find a taker, and I doubt we will at any price, I'm fine with just waiving him. I've got Sappelt in a dead heat with him in terms of value for next year, and Sappelt has more upside in the near and long term. Soriano's not really useful off the bench, either, so you might as well not waste the roster spot.

[jumbo]

2011 was the year a lot of long-time Cubs caught up with their reputations.

 

Soriano's defense has probably dipped below average now, and it's only going to get worse. He had some bad BABIP luck last year, but he's definitely no longer *that* good of a hitter.

 

If we don't find a taker, and I doubt we will at any price, I'm fine with just waiving him. I've got Sappelt in a dead heat with him in terms of value for next year, and Sappelt has more upside in the near and long term. Soriano's not really useful off the bench, either, so you might as well not waste the roster spot.

 

I was looking at Sappelt's minor league numbers earlier today to make the same comparison that you're suggesting: Would he outperform Soriano. He has some pretty good years. Then I looked up Soriano and found something pretty interesting. Baseball Reference gives you his summary stats with each team he's been with:

NYY 284/322/502/824

TEX 274/316/498/814

WAS 277/351/560/911

CHC 266/320/498/818

 

Granted, his numbers the last three years are declining, but I was amazed at how clear of an outlier his season was in Washington. And to think that his 5 years with the Cubs are (by OPS) nearly identical to his non-Washington career was also stunning.

 

Doesn't really change anything about your post, but I found it interesting

[TruffleShuffle]

to me, sappelt looks like a fourth OF who is better against LHP. which is fine, because it does have some value and i think wood and torreyes were the bigger gets in that deal.

[Rob]

to me, sappelt looks like a fourth OF who is better against LHP. which is fine, because it does have some value and i think wood and torreyes were the bigger gets in that deal.

 

I think Sappelt is probably a fourth OF. But given the fact we're going nowhere this season I would absolutely love to give him as many PA as possible so he can prove me wrong.

[TruffleShuffle]

to me, sappelt looks like a fourth OF who is better against LHP. which is fine, because it does have some value and i think wood and torreyes were the bigger gets in that deal.

 

I think Sappelt is probably a fourth OF. But given the fact we're going nowhere this season I would absolutely love to give him as many PA as possible so he can prove me wrong.

 

works for me. of course, soriano needs to go away to make that happen (assuming that the cubs aren't going to bench an $18m player)

[biittner77]

to me, sappelt looks like a fourth OF who is better against LHP. which is fine, because it does have some value and i think wood and torreyes were the bigger gets in that deal.

 

I think Sappelt is probably a fourth OF. But given the fact we're going nowhere this season I would absolutely love to give him as many PA as possible so he can prove me wrong.

 

works for me. of course, soriano needs to go away to make that happen (assuming that the cubs aren't going to bench an $18m player)

 

He could be the short half of a platoon with DeJesus if they hadn't signed Johnson.

[davell]

If we cut Soriano, or somehow find a trade partner, unless we sign Cespedes, I think our LF spot will be a platoon of Campana/Sappelt.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If we cut Soriano, or somehow find a trade partner, unless we sign Cespedes, I think our LF spot will be a platoon of Campana/Sappelt.

 

Assuming Byrd sticks around, it's more likely that he'd be pushed to left and Jackson given center, or at least platooned with Sappelt. I'm no expert on WAR, but I can't imagine a lower oWAR corner outfield platoon than Campana and Sappelt.

[davell]

I figure LF is wide open if Soriano isn't there. If Byrd is still on our team for the start of the season, the only way I see him anywhere other than CF is if we sign Cespedes. And even then, Cespedes is going to have to show he doesn't need at least a tad of seasoning in AAA himself. If anything, Byrd WILL be dealt when it's time for Brett to come up. My guess is Theo and Jed will want to inspect all the potential "assets" we have and giving time to both Campana and Sappelt would probably be of interest to them.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I don't get the Sappelt love that others have but I guess there must be something to it. As for Campana I really don't see him as an asset and if anything he could be a toss in like Fuld was. If a guy is going to make a big league career out of speed , they better be able to get on base at a higher clip that he does.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I hate these "fourth outfielder" or "starter" labels because it obscures the issue. There's not some clear dividing line.

 

I look at Sappelt's minor league numbers and he pretty clearly projects to something like 280/320/410 in the majors without any improvement. I can't find his ZIPS projection, but the Bill James projections on Fangraphs have him at 300/349/425. I feel just as comfortable projecting him to a stat line like that as I would projecting a 25-year-old major leaguer coming off a 280/320/410 season. That would have ranked him 11th among qualified left fielders last season.

 

In left field, Sappelt can bring you a .730 OPS with good defense and baserunning. That's a 2-3 WAR player.

 

A 2-3 WAR player is one that you can feel perfectly comfortable starting. Yes, in an ideal world you'd have a trio of 4-WAR outfielders and Sappelt would be your fourth. But that doesn't mean he needs a "fourth outfielder" label slapped on him. Part of the reason our front office is so brilliant is that they can see the value in a guy like Sappelt while the rest of the league is slapping useless labels on him.

[Backtobanks]

I hate these "fourth outfielder" or "starter" labels because it obscures the issue. There's not some clear dividing line.

 

I look at Sappelt's minor league numbers and he pretty clearly projects to something like 280/320/410 in the majors without any improvement. I can't find his ZIPS projection, but the Bill James projections on Fangraphs have him at 300/349/425. I feel just as comfortable projecting him to a stat line like that as I would projecting a 25-year-old major leaguer coming off a 280/320/410 season. That would have ranked him 11th among qualified left fielders last season.

 

In left field, Sappelt can bring you a .730 OPS with good defense and baserunning. That's a 2-3 WAR player.

 

A 2-3 WAR player is one that you can feel perfectly comfortable starting. Yes, in an ideal world you'd have a trio of 4-WAR outfielders and Sappelt would be your fourth. But that doesn't mean he needs a "fourth outfielder" label slapped on him. Part of the reason our front office is so brilliant is that they can see the value in a guy like Sappelt while the rest of the league is slapping useless labels on him.

 

4th OF seems to fit in the description of the whole Cubs's roster - 4th/5th/platoon OFs, #4 or #5 starters, question mark corner IFs, etc.

[TruffleShuffle]

i'll take the under on bill james' projected batting line for sappelt.