Game #12 KC Chiefs @ CHICAGO BEARS 1:00 PM

bukie · November 30, 2011

10 wins will be enough.

Not according to the Playoff Machine on ESPN. There are several scenarios where the Lions, Bears, and Falcons are all 10-6 and the Bears are left out due to strength of victory tiebreakers. If it's just us and Atlanta at 10-6 and the Lions even at 11-5, it's better for the Bears. We have the tiebreak on ATL head to head, but when 3 teams are in it, there's some weird scenarios.

If the Lions and Bears both finish 10-6 (and Atlanta better than 10-6), it is very likely that Detroit wins the tiebreaker with the Bears. The only way the Bears win it is if they can somehow beat GB or Detroit somehow loses to Minnesota. The most likely scenario is that the teams both split their remaining division games, both losing @ GB, and both winning @/vs. MIN. In that scenario, the Lions make it due to record vs. Common teams, which Detroit has already clinched.

Explain to me how the Lions have clinched record vs. Common teams, considering two of the Bears' losses have been to teams Detroit hasn't played yet, and the Bears beat Atlanta. Or do you just mean that the Bears and Lions can't tie without the Lions winning the tiebreaker for common opponents? Because the Bears and Detroit can tie both if the Bears lose to Seattle and the Bears and Lions have the same record.

UMFan83 · November 30, 2011

On an unrelated note, I somehow created a great possibility using the playoff machine. I haven't finished filling in the season, so hopefully this stays put.

http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/9595/hahda.jpg

Not sure if it's a good idea for the Bears to play 2 days in a row, but it will be nice for the Bears to have 2 chances to advance to the next round.

Banedon · November 30, 2011

10 wins will be enough.

Not according to the Playoff Machine on ESPN. There are several scenarios where the Lions, Bears, and Falcons are all 10-6 and the Bears are left out due to strength of victory tiebreakers. If it's just us and Atlanta at 10-6 and the Lions even at 11-5, it's better for the Bears. We have the tiebreak on ATL head to head, but when 3 teams are in it, there's some weird scenarios.

If the Lions and Bears both finish 10-6 (and Atlanta better than 10-6), it is very likely that Detroit wins the tiebreaker with the Bears. The only way the Bears win it is if they can somehow beat GB or Detroit somehow loses to Minnesota. The most likely scenario is that the teams both split their remaining division games, both losing @ GB, and both winning @/vs. MIN. In that scenario, the Lions make it due to record vs. Common teams, which Detroit has already clinched.

The chances of a 3 way tie seem pretty far fetched.

Frankly, for Detroit to finish 10-6, they'll have to beat a few teams that are over .500. They haven't done that all season.

JonJayCutler · November 30, 2011

"Tyler is our starter," Haley said in a conference call with Chicago media. "We've gotta get Kyle ready to play and he might have to play, he might not."

In other words, Palko will likely be benched in this game.

Banedon · November 30, 2011

"Tyler is our starter," Haley said in a conference call with Chicago media. "We've gotta get Kyle ready to play and he might have to play, he might not."

In other words, Palko will likely be benched in this game.

Yep. Orton is taking about 40% of the first team reps in practice.

November 30, 2011

FWIW, the Chiefs, borrowing from their Patriots heritage, go to great lengths to say absolutely nothing of note to the media, and are not above just lying to them. It doesn't particularly matter, since the Chiefs will lose if they start Palko, Orton, Stanzi, or no QB at all, but I don't think you can divine the starter from any soundbites on the matter.

UMFan83 · November 30, 2011

OK, it won't happen this way because "any given sunday" but check out this scenario:

Week 13:

Bears over Chiefs (8-4)

Saints over Lions (9-3 and 7-5)

Falcons over Texans (8-4)

Week 14:

Broncos over Bears (8-5) (Bears could easily win, it's gonna be hard with their defense in mile high though)

Falcons over Panthers (9-4)

Lions over Vikings (8-5)

Saints over Titans (10-3)

Week 15:

Bears over Seahawks (9-5)

Raiders over Lions (8-6)

Falcons over Jaguars (10-4)

Saints over Vikings (11-3)

Week 16:

Packers over Bears (9-6)

Saints over Falcons (12-3 and 10-5...Saints clinch South)

Lions over Chargers (9-6)

There are a couple of closer calls there. Bears could easily beat Broncos, Lions could beat Raiders are 2 of them)

That sets up these week 17 scenarios:

1) Bears over Vikings, Lions over Packers backups, Falcons over Bucs. Result: Falcons (11-5) 5th seed, Lions (10-6) 6th seed, Bears (10-6) out

2) Bears over Vikings, Lions over Packers backups, Bucs over Falcons. Result: Falcons (10-6) 5th seed, Lions (10-6) 6th seed, Bears (10-6) out

3) Bears over Vikings, Packers over Lions, Falcons over Bucs. Result: Falcons (11-5) 5th seed, Bears (10-6) 6th seed, Lions (9-7) out

4) Bears over Vikings, Packers over Lions, Bucs over Falcons. Result: Bears (10-6) 5th seed, Falcons (10-6) 6th seed, Lions (9-7) out

5) Vikings over Bears, Packers over Lions, Falcons over Bucs or vice versa. Result: Falcons (11-5 or 10-6) 5th seed, Lions (9-7) 6th seed, Bears out.

So basically the only way the Bears make the playoffs in this situation is a Lions loss followed by a Bears win. If the Falcons finish 10-6, it looks like they are going to win all tiebreakers, unless Detroit finishes 11-5 or better.

UMFan83 · November 30, 2011

10 wins will be enough.

Not according to the Playoff Machine on ESPN. There are several scenarios where the Lions, Bears, and Falcons are all 10-6 and the Bears are left out due to strength of victory tiebreakers. If it's just us and Atlanta at 10-6 and the Lions even at 11-5, it's better for the Bears. We have the tiebreak on ATL head to head, but when 3 teams are in it, there's some weird scenarios.

If the Lions and Bears both finish 10-6 (and Atlanta better than 10-6), it is very likely that Detroit wins the tiebreaker with the Bears. The only way the Bears win it is if they can somehow beat GB or Detroit somehow loses to Minnesota. The most likely scenario is that the teams both split their remaining division games, both losing @ GB, and both winning @/vs. MIN. In that scenario, the Lions make it due to record vs. Common teams, which Detroit has already clinched.
Explain to me how the Lions have clinched record vs. Common teams, considering two of the Bears' losses have been to teams Detroit hasn't played yet, and the Bears beat Atlanta. Or do you just mean that the Bears and Lions can't tie without the Lions winning the tiebreaker for common opponents? Because the Bears and Detroit can tie both if the Bears lose to Seattle and the Bears and Lions have the same record.

They havent officially clinched it but they virtually have. The way I determine common opponent records between division teams is by looking at non-common opponents, because there are only 2 for each. The Lions have lost both of their non-common games (Atlanta and SF), while the Bears have won their first (Philly). This means that if the Bears and Lions finish tied at 10-6 for instance, the Lions will have a 10-4 record vs. common opponents, and the Bears either 9-5 or 8-6 depending on whether they beat Seattle.

Unless I am missing something, there is no way that the Lions can lose or even tie a common opponents tiebreaker to the Bears.

bukie · November 30, 2011

Interesting note: since Tebow took over in Denver, the Broncos defense hasn't actually been any better in efficiency.

Their passing offense has been a little worse.

Their rushing offense has gone from terrible to amazing.

bukie · November 30, 2011

They havent officially clinched it but they virtually have. The way I determine common opponent records between division teams is by looking at non-common opponents, because there are only 2 for each. The Lions have lost both of their non-common games (Atlanta and SF), while the Bears have won their first (Philly). This means that if the Bears and Lions finish tied at 10-6 for instance, the Lions will have a 10-4 record vs. common opponents, and the Bears either 9-5 or 8-6 depending on whether they beat Seattle.

Unless I am missing something, there is no way that the Lions can lose or even tie a common opponents tiebreaker to the Bears.

The Bears beat Atlanta something like 30 to 12 in week 1. That's a common game. Dallas is the team Detroit played that the Bears don't.

CubColtPacer · November 30, 2011

10 wins will be enough.

Not according to the Playoff Machine on ESPN. There are several scenarios where the Lions, Bears, and Falcons are all 10-6 and the Bears are left out due to strength of victory tiebreakers. If it's just us and Atlanta at 10-6 and the Lions even at 11-5, it's better for the Bears. We have the tiebreak on ATL head to head, but when 3 teams are in it, there's some weird scenarios.

If the Lions and Bears both finish 10-6 (and Atlanta better than 10-6), it is very likely that Detroit wins the tiebreaker with the Bears. The only way the Bears win it is if they can somehow beat GB or Detroit somehow loses to Minnesota. The most likely scenario is that the teams both split their remaining division games, both losing @ GB, and both winning @/vs. MIN. In that scenario, the Lions make it due to record vs. Common teams, which Detroit has already clinched.
Explain to me how the Lions have clinched record vs. Common teams, considering two of the Bears' losses have been to teams Detroit hasn't played yet, and the Bears beat Atlanta. Or do you just mean that the Bears and Lions can't tie without the Lions winning the tiebreaker for common opponents? Because the Bears and Detroit can tie both if the Bears lose to Seattle and the Bears and Lions have the same record.

They havent officially clinched it but they virtually have. The way I determine common opponent records between division teams is by looking at non-common opponents, because there are only 2 for each. The Lions have lost both of their non-common games (Atlanta and SF), while the Bears have won their first (Philly). This means that if the Bears and Lions finish tied at 10-6 for instance, the Lions will have a 10-4 record vs. common opponents, and the Bears either 9-5 or 8-6 depending on whether they beat Seattle.

Unless I am missing something, there is no way that the Lions can lose or even tie a common opponents tiebreaker to the Bears.

Dallas is the second non-common game for Detroit, not Atlanta.

JonJayCutler · November 30, 2011

So we might have to cheer for GB to complete an undefeated season in order for us to make the playoffs. Yay.

I could never root for the following scenario, but if Cutler won't be back for the playoffs I wouldn't necessarily mind missing it and taking the higher draft pick. Hanie is not going into Dallas or New Orleans and winning.

Tyrant · November 30, 2011

So we might have to cheer for GB to complete an undefeated season in order for us to make the playoffs. Yay.

I could never root for the following scenario, but if Cutler won't be back for the playoffs I wouldn't necessarily mind missing it and taking the higher draft pick. Hanie is not going into Dallas or New Orleans and winning.

Don't be a Seahawks fan.

jersey cubs fan · November 30, 2011

So we might have to cheer for GB to complete an undefeated season in order for us to make the playoffs. Yay.

I could never root for the following scenario, but if Cutler won't be back for the playoffs I wouldn't necessarily mind missing it and taking the higher draft pick. Hanie is not going into Dallas or New Orleans and winning.

If they go 15-0 they will try and win 16. If they lose to the Bears they will try and bounce back in the final week so as to not finish on a downward trend. If they somehow lose twice before then they will hopefully be playing for home field.

Banedon · November 30, 2011

So we might have to cheer for GB to complete an undefeated season in order for us to make the playoffs. Yay.

I could never root for the following scenario, but if Cutler won't be back for the playoffs I wouldn't necessarily mind missing it and taking the higher draft pick. Hanie is not going into Dallas or New Orleans and winning.

We can still, and should, root for the Bears to beat GB.

jersey cubs fan · November 30, 2011

So we might have to cheer for GB to complete an undefeated season in order for us to make the playoffs. Yay.

I could never root for the following scenario, but if Cutler won't be back for the playoffs I wouldn't necessarily mind missing it and taking the higher draft pick. Hanie is not going into Dallas or New Orleans and winning.

We can still, and should, root for the Bears to beat GB.

If the Bears beat GB I don't think we'll be worrying about tie breakers.

UMFan83 · November 30, 2011

They havent officially clinched it but they virtually have. The way I determine common opponent records between division teams is by looking at non-common opponents, because there are only 2 for each. The Lions have lost both of their non-common games (Atlanta and SF), while the Bears have won their first (Philly). This means that if the Bears and Lions finish tied at 10-6 for instance, the Lions will have a 10-4 record vs. common opponents, and the Bears either 9-5 or 8-6 depending on whether they beat Seattle.

Unless I am missing something, there is no way that the Lions can lose or even tie a common opponents tiebreaker to the Bears.

The Bears beat Atlanta something like 30 to 12 in week 1. That's a common game. Dallas is the team Detroit played that the Bears don't.

[expletive] I feel like a moron now. Thanks. OK, so the Bears can still tie that tiebreaker, but they'd have to lose at home to Seattle to do so.

rawaction · November 30, 2011

They havent officially clinched it but they virtually have. The way I determine common opponent records between division teams is by looking at non-common opponents, because there are only 2 for each. The Lions have lost both of their non-common games (Atlanta and SF), while the Bears have won their first (Philly). This means that if the Bears and Lions finish tied at 10-6 for instance, the Lions will have a 10-4 record vs. common opponents, and the Bears either 9-5 or 8-6 depending on whether they beat Seattle.

Unless I am missing something, there is no way that the Lions can lose or even tie a common opponents tiebreaker to the Bears.

The Bears beat Atlanta something like 30 to 12 in week 1. That's a common game. Dallas is the team Detroit played that the Bears don't.

[expletive] I feel like a moron now. Thanks. OK, so the Bears can still tie that tiebreaker, but they'd have to lose at home to Seattle to do so.

So, I'm confused. Since you were wrong, doesn't this mean the Bears get in in all 10-6 tiebreaker scenarios over the Lions or Falcons?

Edit: not all, still be screwed if the Bears lose to Minnesota or GB and the Lions win 1 of those because of better division record.

JonJayCutler · November 30, 2011

Edit: not all, still be screwed if the Bears lose to Minnesota or GB and the Lions win 1 of those because of better division record.

That would put both of their division records at 3-3. Now if the Bears lose to the Packers AND Vikings, and the Lions win one of the two, then the Lions would win the tiebreaker 3-3 vs 2-4.

In other words, the Bears will likely only lose this tiebreaker if in Week 17 they lose to the Vikings OR the Lions beat the Packers.

UMFan83 · November 30, 2011

They havent officially clinched it but they virtually have. The way I determine common opponent records between division teams is by looking at non-common opponents, because there are only 2 for each. The Lions have lost both of their non-common games (Atlanta and SF), while the Bears have won their first (Philly). This means that if the Bears and Lions finish tied at 10-6 for instance, the Lions will have a 10-4 record vs. common opponents, and the Bears either 9-5 or 8-6 depending on whether they beat Seattle.

Unless I am missing something, there is no way that the Lions can lose or even tie a common opponents tiebreaker to the Bears.

The Bears beat Atlanta something like 30 to 12 in week 1. That's a common game. Dallas is the team Detroit played that the Bears don't.

[expletive] I feel like a moron now. Thanks. OK, so the Bears can still tie that tiebreaker, but they'd have to lose at home to Seattle to do so.

So, I'm confused. Since you were wrong, doesn't this mean the Bears get in in all 10-6 tiebreaker scenarios over the Lions or Falcons?

Edit: not all, still be screwed if the Bears lose to Minnesota or GB and the Lions win 1 of those because of better division record.

No, what I said before is still true unless the Bears lose to the Seahawks. If the Bears beat Seattle, the common opponents tiebreaker is a virtual loss to Detroit. However, division record is still the higher tiebreaker, and the Lions and Bears are tied at 2-2. Unfortunately, the way it most likely plays out is that the Bears and Lions both beat Minnesota and lose to Green Bay, which would send the tiebreaker to common opponents.

If the Bears do in fact lose to Seattle, there is still much to be decided. The Bears hold an edge in conference record (Bears: 6-3 with conference games between SEA, GB and MIN, Lions: 5-4 with conference games between NO, GB, MIN), and even with the Bears losing already to Seattle to get to this point, and the strong possibility of the Bears losing to GB to tie the division records w/Detroit, they would finish 7-5, which means the Lions have to beat NO this weekend to still be alive in that tiebreaker. (because they will lose to GB to tie the division record to make it to this point).

So look at it this way:

Tiebreaker #1 (Head to Head): The is guaranteed to be tied

Tiebreaker #2 (Division record): This is likely to be tied 3-3 unless either Chicago or Detroit beats GB or loses to MIN)

Tiebreaker #3 (Common Opponents): The Lions will win this unless the Bears lose to Seattle and otherwise remain tied in overall record.

Tiebreaker #4 (Conference record): Still up in the air, but likely edge to Chicago if Detroit loses to New Orleans this weekend (because they likely will need to suffer another conference loss to GB in order to tie the division record tiebreaker).

Tiebreaker #5 (Strength of victory): Way too many variables at play to tell who has the edge here. But what we know is that Chicago's victories have come against teams with a 31-46 overall record, while Detroit's have come against teams with a 32-46 record, so they currently have the slight edge with Chicago having the easier remaining schedule of the 2 teams (only GB and DEN have winning records, DET has NO, GB, OAK left).

rawaction · November 30, 2011

They havent officially clinched it but they virtually have. The way I determine common opponent records between division teams is by looking at non-common opponents, because there are only 2 for each. The Lions have lost both of their non-common games (Atlanta and SF), while the Bears have won their first (Philly). This means that if the Bears and Lions finish tied at 10-6 for instance, the Lions will have a 10-4 record vs. common opponents, and the Bears either 9-5 or 8-6 depending on whether they beat Seattle.

Unless I am missing something, there is no way that the Lions can lose or even tie a common opponents tiebreaker to the Bears.

The Bears beat Atlanta something like 30 to 12 in week 1. That's a common game. Dallas is the team Detroit played that the Bears don't.

[expletive] I feel like a moron now. Thanks. OK, so the Bears can still tie that tiebreaker, but they'd have to lose at home to Seattle to do so.

So, I'm confused. Since you were wrong, doesn't this mean the Bears get in in all 10-6 tiebreaker scenarios over the Lions or Falcons?

Edit: not all, still be screwed if the Bears lose to Minnesota or GB and the Lions win 1 of those because of better division record.

No, what I said before is still true unless the Bears lose to the Seahawks. If the Bears beat Seattle, the common opponents tiebreaker is a virtual loss to Detroit. However, division record is still the higher tiebreaker, and the Lions and Bears are tied at 2-2. Unfortunately, the way it most likely plays out is that the Bears and Lions both beat Minnesota and lose to Green Bay, which would send the tiebreaker to common opponents.

If the Bears do in fact lose to Seattle, there is still much to be decided. The Bears hold an edge in conference record (Bears: 6-3 with conference games between SEA, GB and MIN, Lions: 5-4 with conference games between NO, GB, MIN), and even with the Bears losing already to Seattle to get to this point, and the strong possibility of the Bears losing to GB to tie the division records w/Detroit, they would finish 7-5, which means the Lions have to beat NO this weekend to still be alive in that tiebreaker. (because they will lose to GB to tie the division record to make it to this point).

So look at it this way:
Tiebreaker #1 (Head to Head): The is guaranteed to be tied
Tiebreaker #2 (Division record): This is likely to be tied 3-3 unless either Chicago or Detroit beats GB or loses to MIN)
Tiebreaker #3 (Common Opponents): The Lions will win this unless the Bears lose to Seattle and otherwise remain tied in overall record.
Tiebreaker #4 (Conference record): Still up in the air, but likely edge to Chicago if Detroit loses to New Orleans this weekend (because they likely will need to suffer another conference loss to GB in order to tie the division record tiebreaker).
Tiebreaker #5 (Strength of victory): Way too many variables at play to tell who has the edge here. But what we know is that Chicago's victories have come against teams with a 31-46 overall record, while Detroit's have come against teams with a 32-46 record, so they currently have the slight edge with Chicago having the easier remaining schedule of the 2 teams (only GB and DEN have winning records, DET has NO, GB, OAK left).

Tiebreaker 1, I got.

Tiebreaker 2, I got also

Tiebreaker 3, I don't got.

Common games.

- Tampa - Detroit won, Chicago won

- Chiefs- Detroit won

- Vikings - Detroit won, Chicago won

- Atlanta- Detroit lost, Chicago won

- Denver- Detroit won,

- Green Bay- Detroit lost, Chicago lost

- Carolina- Detroit won, Chicago won

- Saints- Chicago lost

- Oakland- Chicago lost

- San Diego- Chicago won

So far, Detroit is 5-2 in games both teams will play. Chicago is 5-3 in games both teams will play. If the Bears win vs. KC, Minn, and Denver...and lose to GB, that would be 8-4. If the Lions lose to the Saints and Packers, even if they beat SD, Minny, and Oakland that would make them 8-4 in common games.

The only differences would be opposite results in each direction vs. Atlanta and Oakland. Even if the Bears lose to Seattle, they'd be 10-6 with Detroit at 10-6.

Then the tiebreaker would go to conference record and the Bears would be 7-5 with Detroit 6-6.

rawaction · November 30, 2011

10 wins will be enough.

Not according to the Playoff Machine on ESPN. There are several scenarios where the Lions, Bears, and Falcons are all 10-6 and the Bears are left out due to strength of victory tiebreakers. If it's just us and Atlanta at 10-6 and the Lions even at 11-5, it's better for the Bears. We have the tiebreak on ATL head to head, but when 3 teams are in it, there's some weird scenarios.

If the Lions and Bears both finish 10-6 (and Atlanta better than 10-6), it is very likely that Detroit wins the tiebreaker with the Bears. The only way the Bears win it is if they can somehow beat GB or Detroit somehow loses to Minnesota. The most likely scenario is that the teams both split their remaining division games, both losing @ GB, and both winning @/vs. MIN. In that scenario, the Lions make it due to record vs. Common teams, which Detroit has already clinched.
Explain to me how the Lions have clinched record vs. Common teams, considering two of the Bears' losses have been to teams Detroit hasn't played yet, and the Bears beat Atlanta. Or do you just mean that the Bears and Lions can't tie without the Lions winning the tiebreaker for common opponents? Because the Bears and Detroit can tie both if the Bears lose to Seattle and the Bears and Lions have the same record.

This. The Bears essentially have a game in hand because they beat Atlanta, while Detroit did not. In order to even tie the Bears in this category, the Lions have to beat a team the Bears lost to. That means either New Orleans or Oakland.

Green Bay doesn't count because if Detroit wins that game and the Bears lose again to GB, then it never gets to this tiebreaker in the first place.

CubColtPacer · December 1, 2011

So, I'm confused. Since you were wrong, doesn't this mean the Bears get in in all 10-6 tiebreaker scenarios over the Lions or Falcons?

Edit: not all, still be screwed if the Bears lose to Minnesota or GB and the Lions win 1 of those because of better division record.

No, what I said before is still true unless the Bears lose to the Seahawks. If the Bears beat Seattle, the common opponents tiebreaker is a virtual loss to Detroit. However, division record is still the higher tiebreaker, and the Lions and Bears are tied at 2-2. Unfortunately, the way it most likely plays out is that the Bears and Lions both beat Minnesota and lose to Green Bay, which would send the tiebreaker to common opponents.

If the Bears do in fact lose to Seattle, there is still much to be decided. The Bears hold an edge in conference record (Bears: 6-3 with conference games between SEA, GB and MIN, Lions: 5-4 with conference games between NO, GB, MIN), and even with the Bears losing already to Seattle to get to this point, and the strong possibility of the Bears losing to GB to tie the division records w/Detroit, they would finish 7-5, which means the Lions have to beat NO this weekend to still be alive in that tiebreaker. (because they will lose to GB to tie the division record to make it to this point).

So look at it this way:
Tiebreaker #1 (Head to Head): The is guaranteed to be tied
Tiebreaker #2 (Division record): This is likely to be tied 3-3 unless either Chicago or Detroit beats GB or loses to MIN)
Tiebreaker #3 (Common Opponents): The Lions will win this unless the Bears lose to Seattle and otherwise remain tied in overall record.
Tiebreaker #4 (Conference record): Still up in the air, but likely edge to Chicago if Detroit loses to New Orleans this weekend (because they likely will need to suffer another conference loss to GB in order to tie the division record tiebreaker).
Tiebreaker #5 (Strength of victory): Way too many variables at play to tell who has the edge here. But what we know is that Chicago's victories have come against teams with a 31-46 overall record, while Detroit's have come against teams with a 32-46 record, so they currently have the slight edge with Chicago having the easier remaining schedule of the 2 teams (only GB and DEN have winning records, DET has NO, GB, OAK left).

Tiebreaker 1, I got.
Tiebreaker 2, I got also
Tiebreaker 3, I don't got.

Common games.

- Tampa - Detroit won, Chicago won
- Chiefs- Detroit won
- Vikings - Detroit won, Chicago won
- Atlanta- Detroit lost, Chicago won
- Denver- Detroit won,
- Green Bay- Detroit lost, Chicago lost
- Carolina- Detroit won, Chicago won
- Saints- Chicago lost
- Oakland- Chicago lost
- San Diego- Chicago won

So far, Detroit is 5-2 in games both teams will play. Chicago is 5-3 in games both teams will play. If the Bears win vs. KC, Minn, and Denver...and lose to GB, that would be 8-4. If the Lions lose to the Saints and Packers, even if they beat SD, Minny, and Oakland that would make them 8-4 in common games.

The only differences would be opposite results in each direction vs. Atlanta and Oakland. Even if the Bears lose to Seattle, they'd be 10-6 with Detroit at 10-6.

Then the tiebreaker would go to conference record and the Bears would be 7-5 with Detroit 6-6.

I think that's what UMFan is saying. If the Bears beat Seattle, then they cannot be tied with the Lions in the standings and also not have lost the common opponents tiebreker . They'll have either won all 3 games that you have them winning, which would put them at 11-5 and ahead of the Lions at 10-6. Or they'll lose one of those 3 games instead, which will put them tied with the Lions and 1 game back in the common opponents category.

If they lose to Seattle, then they can tie in both record and common opponents as you've shown above.

rawaction · December 1, 2011

So, I'm confused. Since you were wrong, doesn't this mean the Bears get in in all 10-6 tiebreaker scenarios over the Lions or Falcons?

Edit: not all, still be screwed if the Bears lose to Minnesota or GB and the Lions win 1 of those because of better division record.

No, what I said before is still true unless the Bears lose to the Seahawks. If the Bears beat Seattle, the common opponents tiebreaker is a virtual loss to Detroit. However, division record is still the higher tiebreaker, and the Lions and Bears are tied at 2-2. Unfortunately, the way it most likely plays out is that the Bears and Lions both beat Minnesota and lose to Green Bay, which would send the tiebreaker to common opponents.

If the Bears do in fact lose to Seattle, there is still much to be decided. The Bears hold an edge in conference record (Bears: 6-3 with conference games between SEA, GB and MIN, Lions: 5-4 with conference games between NO, GB, MIN), and even with the Bears losing already to Seattle to get to this point, and the strong possibility of the Bears losing to GB to tie the division records w/Detroit, they would finish 7-5, which means the Lions have to beat NO this weekend to still be alive in that tiebreaker. (because they will lose to GB to tie the division record to make it to this point).

So look at it this way:
Tiebreaker #1 (Head to Head): The is guaranteed to be tied
Tiebreaker #2 (Division record): This is likely to be tied 3-3 unless either Chicago or Detroit beats GB or loses to MIN)
Tiebreaker #3 (Common Opponents): The Lions will win this unless the Bears lose to Seattle and otherwise remain tied in overall record.
Tiebreaker #4 (Conference record): Still up in the air, but likely edge to Chicago if Detroit loses to New Orleans this weekend (because they likely will need to suffer another conference loss to GB in order to tie the division record tiebreaker).
Tiebreaker #5 (Strength of victory): Way too many variables at play to tell who has the edge here. But what we know is that Chicago's victories have come against teams with a 31-46 overall record, while Detroit's have come against teams with a 32-46 record, so they currently have the slight edge with Chicago having the easier remaining schedule of the 2 teams (only GB and DEN have winning records, DET has NO, GB, OAK left).

Tiebreaker 1, I got.
Tiebreaker 2, I got also
Tiebreaker 3, I don't got.

Common games.

- Tampa - Detroit won, Chicago won
- Chiefs- Detroit won
- Vikings - Detroit won, Chicago won
- Atlanta- Detroit lost, Chicago won
- Denver- Detroit won,
- Green Bay- Detroit lost, Chicago lost
- Carolina- Detroit won, Chicago won
- Saints- Chicago lost
- Oakland- Chicago lost
- San Diego- Chicago won

So far, Detroit is 5-2 in games both teams will play. Chicago is 5-3 in games both teams will play. If the Bears win vs. KC, Minn, and Denver...and lose to GB, that would be 8-4. If the Lions lose to the Saints and Packers, even if they beat SD, Minny, and Oakland that would make them 8-4 in common games.

The only differences would be opposite results in each direction vs. Atlanta and Oakland. Even if the Bears lose to Seattle, they'd be 10-6 with Detroit at 10-6.

Then the tiebreaker would go to conference record and the Bears would be 7-5 with Detroit 6-6.

I think that's what UMFan is saying. If the Bears beat Seattle, then they cannot be tied with the Lions in the standings and also not have lost the common opponents tiebreker . They'll have either won all 3 games that you have them winning, which would put them at 11-5 and ahead of the Lions at 10-6. Or they'll lose one of those 3 games instead, which will put them tied with the Lions and 1 game back in the common opponents category.

If they lose to Seattle, then they can tie in both record and common opponents as you've shown above.

Then the bold part makes no sense.

CubColtPacer · December 1, 2011

So, I'm confused. Since you were wrong, doesn't this mean the Bears get in in all 10-6 tiebreaker scenarios over the Lions or Falcons?

Edit: not all, still be screwed if the Bears lose to Minnesota or GB and the Lions win 1 of those because of better division record.

No, what I said before is still true unless the Bears lose to the Seahawks. If the Bears beat Seattle, the common opponents tiebreaker is a virtual loss to Detroit. However, division record is still the higher tiebreaker, and the Lions and Bears are tied at 2-2. Unfortunately, the way it most likely plays out is that the Bears and Lions both beat Minnesota and lose to Green Bay, which would send the tiebreaker to common opponents.

If the Bears do in fact lose to Seattle, there is still much to be decided. The Bears hold an edge in conference record (Bears: 6-3 with conference games between SEA, GB and MIN, Lions: 5-4 with conference games between NO, GB, MIN), and even with the Bears losing already to Seattle to get to this point, and the strong possibility of the Bears losing to GB to tie the division records w/Detroit, they would finish 7-5, which means the Lions have to beat NO this weekend to still be alive in that tiebreaker. (because they will lose to GB to tie the division record to make it to this point).

So look at it this way:
Tiebreaker #1 (Head to Head): The is guaranteed to be tied
Tiebreaker #2 (Division record): This is likely to be tied 3-3 unless either Chicago or Detroit beats GB or loses to MIN)
Tiebreaker #3 (Common Opponents): The Lions will win this unless the Bears lose to Seattle and otherwise remain tied in overall record.
Tiebreaker #4 (Conference record): Still up in the air, but likely edge to Chicago if Detroit loses to New Orleans this weekend (because they likely will need to suffer another conference loss to GB in order to tie the division record tiebreaker).
Tiebreaker #5 (Strength of victory): Way too many variables at play to tell who has the edge here. But what we know is that Chicago's victories have come against teams with a 31-46 overall record, while Detroit's have come against teams with a 32-46 record, so they currently have the slight edge with Chicago having the easier remaining schedule of the 2 teams (only GB and DEN have winning records, DET has NO, GB, OAK left).

Tiebreaker 1, I got.
Tiebreaker 2, I got also
Tiebreaker 3, I don't got.

Common games.

- Tampa - Detroit won, Chicago won
- Chiefs- Detroit won
- Vikings - Detroit won, Chicago won
- Atlanta- Detroit lost, Chicago won
- Denver- Detroit won,
- Green Bay- Detroit lost, Chicago lost
- Carolina- Detroit won, Chicago won
- Saints- Chicago lost
- Oakland- Chicago lost
- San Diego- Chicago won

So far, Detroit is 5-2 in games both teams will play. Chicago is 5-3 in games both teams will play. If the Bears win vs. KC, Minn, and Denver...and lose to GB, that would be 8-4. If the Lions lose to the Saints and Packers, even if they beat SD, Minny, and Oakland that would make them 8-4 in common games.

The only differences would be opposite results in each direction vs. Atlanta and Oakland. Even if the Bears lose to Seattle, they'd be 10-6 with Detroit at 10-6.

Then the tiebreaker would go to conference record and the Bears would be 7-5 with Detroit 6-6.

I think that's what UMFan is saying. If the Bears beat Seattle, then they cannot be tied with the Lions in the standings and also not have lost the common opponents tiebreker . They'll have either won all 3 games that you have them winning, which would put them at 11-5 and ahead of the Lions at 10-6. Or they'll lose one of those 3 games instead, which will put them tied with the Lions and 1 game back in the common opponents category.

If they lose to Seattle, then they can tie in both record and common opponents as you've shown above.

Then the bold part makes no sense.

It does to me. If the Bears beat Seattle and the Lions and the Bears have the same record at the end of the season, then the Lions will have won that tiebreaker. The only way for the Bears to tie that tiebreaker in a scenario where the tiebreakers matter is if they lose to Seattle.

Game #12 KC Chiefs @ CHICAGO BEARS 1:00 PM

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