Idea for a new way to evaluate players

[CubinNY]

I don't like VORP or WAR because the valuations those metrics use are for non-existent entities. In other words, they are wholly a function of math. Also, and perhaps most importantly, the mythical replacement player is not someone most teams would use on their roster for any length of time. So while I was in the shower this morning I got to thinking about some other way to value a player and factor in salary, because we all know the salary calculation that fangraphs and other websites use are mostly absurd.

 

So here is my idea.

 

1. Take the OPS for all the players of a particular position (i.e., 1st, 2nd, etc.) who have at least 200 PAs at that position and get an average for that year.

2. Take the OPS from the person you are interested in (e.g., Geo Soto) and divide his OPS from the average of all the player

3. To get a ratio or percentage you subtract 1 by that numberto get how much better or worse the player is vs. the average player for his position

 

 

Not real numbers, just an example: Soto's OPS = .800, average catcher OPS = .640= (.640/.800 = .80). 1-.80 = .20, So Geo is 20% better than the average catcher in terms of OPS.

 

To factor in salary:

 

1. Take the salary or all the players of a particular position (i.e., 1st, 2nd, etc.) who have at least 200 PAs at that position and get an average.

2. Take the salary from the person you are interested in (e.g., Geo Soto) and divide his salary from the average of all the players to get a ratio or percentage

3. To get a ratio or percentage you subtract 1 by that number to get how much better or worse the player is vs. the average player for his position

 

Again, not real numbers, just an example: Soto's salary = 4,000,000 salary, average catcher salary = 950,000 (.950/4.00 = .24). 1-.24 = .76 So Geo's salary is paid 76% higher than the average catcher's salary.

 

This is where it gets a bit dicey.

 

We could look at the ratio of OPS to salary, and in this case it would be .23:.76. We could subtract the ratios and it would be -.56, but I think most established players would have a negative value compared to league averages b/c the salary structure is so bimodal. Or we could divide the numbers and get .302, so his value as a player for his position and salary is .302

 

That would mean players approaching 1 in terms their relative performance to their relative pay for their position would be highly valuable.

 

Also, I'm not sure what to do about pitchers.

 

Anyway, this was fun for me to do.... So FLAME ON.... I can take it.

Edited November 16, 2011 by CubinNY

[Bote McBoteface]

I've been out of touch for a while, but when did .8 divided by 1 become .2?

[Guest]

I've been out of touch for a while, but when did .8 divided by 1 become .2?

Sorry, that's right.

 

I should have wrote .80-1

 

I'll fix that.

[Garwilly]

I've been out of touch for a while, but when did .8 divided by 1 become .2?

Sorry, that's right.

 

I should have wrote .80-1

 

I'll fix that.

 

 

-.2

[sneakypower]

I don't like VORP or WAR because the valuations those metrics use are for non-existent entities. In other words, they are wholly a function of math. Also, and perhaps most importantly, the mythical replacement player is not someone most teams would use on their roster for any length of time. So while I was in the shower this morning I got to thinking about some other way to value a player and factor in salary, because we all know the salary calculation that fangraphs and other websites use are mostly absurd.

...we do?

 

and we gave over 1000 PA to DeWitt, Colvin, Baker, Hill, LaHair, Montanez and LeMahieu, who are all a pretty fair example of replacement player at this stage in their careers

[wade]

Without looking too much, is your OPS metric basically OPS+? Except I think OPS+ uses park factors and whatnot?

[Guest]

I don't like VORP or WAR because the valuations those metrics use are for non-existent entities. In other words, they are wholly a function of math. Also, and perhaps most importantly, the mythical replacement player is not someone most teams would use on their roster for any length of time. So while I was in the shower this morning I got to thinking about some other way to value a player and factor in salary, because we all know the salary calculation that fangraphs and other websites use are mostly absurd.

...we do?

 

and we gave over 1000 PA to DeWitt, Colvin, Baker, Hill, LaHair, Montanez and LeMahieu, who are all a pretty fair example of replacement player at this stage in their careers

Yes we do. Those guys are not replacement players according to how VORP and WAR are calculated. I don't have the time to go deep into the calculations but those data are theoretical based on the general pool of players in the league and they aren't considered starters.

 

The question I was trying to answer was, "how much better or worse is the player compared to the average player at his position when we factor in salary." I should have stated that up front. Sorry.

[jersey cubs fan]

Without looking too much, is your OPS metric basically OPS+? Except I think OPS+ uses park factors and whatnot?

 

it's kind of an OPS+ for positions, without park factors.

[minnesotacubsfan]

in other words, its pretty much pointless

[Guest]

in other words, its pretty much pointless

OPS plus doesn't factor in salary, nor is it normized by position.

[jersey cubs fan]

in other words, its pretty much pointless

OPS plus doesn't factor in salary, nor is it normized by position.

 

Maybe you should take everybody's OPS+ and then adjust for position.

[wade]

That would leave us with the question of comparing salaries. Would you want to compare their worth on the open market? That seems better than lumping club-friendly contracts to starters like Arrencibia in with those like Mauer's. The question is how do we figure open market value-

[javy knows my name]

Since when does OPS+ not adjust for position?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Since when does OPS+ not adjust for position?

 

Since always.

[sneakypower]

since its inception?

[javy knows my name]

My bad. Whatever, this is like the Jawdle of sabr stats.

[Tracer Bullet]

Isn't OPS+ still flawed as OPS is? If we're going to tweak a stat and tie it to salary, why start with one that doesn't properly value obp?

[Guest]

Isn't OPS+ still flawed as OPS is? If we're going to tweak a stat and tie it to salary, why start with one that doesn't properly value obp?

It might be flawed, but it's still the best thing we have that is correlated to wins (real wins, not imaginary wins).

[Guest]

It's true, I heard the Astros led MLB in WAR last year.

[Guest]

Isn't OPS+ still flawed as OPS is? If we're going to tweak a stat and tie it to salary, why start with one that doesn't properly value obp?

It might be flawed, but it's still the best thing we have that is correlated to wins (real wins, not imaginary wins).

 

 

It is?