Prado and Jurrjens on the market?

[Clem Fandango]

According to MLB.com's Mark Bowman, the Braves are taking trade offers for Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado.

Atlanta would be looking to add power and open up salary for a free agent shortstop through the trades. The Royals have already expressed interest in obtaining Jurrjens, who registered a stellar 2.96 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 23 starts this year. And many clubs will be calling about Prado, who boasts a .293/.341/.434 career batting line and can play a variety of defensive positions. This offseason could see one or two blockbuster trades.

 

Interesting. They can certainly afford to lose Jurrjens with Teheran, Delgado, and Minor coming up. Probably a wise move, they should be able to get a good haul for him.

 

Not sure what other teams value Prado at. He's obviously valuable to a degree, but it's curious to see how much other teams think he's worth

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I would have interest in either one, could a package including McNutt and Szczur be a sarting point to land both of them? Prado could play 3B or 2B correct?

[Sammy Sofa]

I was gonna say I'd definitely have interest in Prado, but man, he fell hard this past year. Was he dealing with major injuries?

[Butterscup1679666578]

I'm a huge Jurrjens fan. Don't know that we could put anything together that would land him though.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Definite yes to Jurrjens. Wilson will be very expensive and nothing else is particularly appealing. Going by the model that got Greinke for the Brewers, how about Szczur, McNutt, and Lake would be a decent enough package.

[Vanilla Ice]

Am I missing something on Jurrjens? His stats aren't that good

[Clem Fandango]

Am I missing something on Jurrjens? His stats aren't that good

 

I was about to say. His FIP and xFIP have been 4.00 or higher the past two years, more or less...

 

2010

FIP: 4.19

xFIP: 4.29

ERA: 4.64

WAR: 1.2

 

2011

FIP: 3.99

xFIP: 4.23

ERA: 2.98

WAR: 1.5

 

I'm all for exploring to acquire him because I do think he's a fine pitcher, but I think he's being a little overvalued here

[davell]

I like Jurrjens a lot. Maybe a package involving Cashner and one of Jackson or Szczur would entice them? Send Lake as well, if need be. I'm not sure what Prado is worth. Hard for me to figure out which guy he is, so unless he could be had for a package with McNutt as the main piece, I'm staying away from him.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Can't say I'm a big JJ fan, and Prado fell off hard last year. Neither is high up on my imaginary list.

[mul21]

Am I missing something on Jurrjens? His stats aren't that good

 

I was about to say. His FIP and xFIP have been 4.00 or higher the past two years, more or less...

 

2010

FIP: 4.19

xFIP: 4.29

ERA: 4.64

WAR: 1.2

 

2011

FIP: 3.99

xFIP: 4.23

ERA: 2.98

WAR: 1.5

 

I'm all for exploring to acquire him because I do think he's a fine pitcher, but I think he's being a little overvalued here

 

A 2.98 ERA in 23 starts is only good for 1.5 WAR? That seems really low.

[CubColtPacer]

Am I missing something on Jurrjens? His stats aren't that good

 

I was about to say. His FIP and xFIP have been 4.00 or higher the past two years, more or less...

 

2010

FIP: 4.19

xFIP: 4.29

ERA: 4.64

WAR: 1.2

 

2011

FIP: 3.99

xFIP: 4.23

ERA: 2.98

WAR: 1.5

 

I'm all for exploring to acquire him because I do think he's a fine pitcher, but I think he's being a little overvalued here

 

A 2.98 ERA in 23 starts is only good for 1.5 WAR? That seems really low.

 

That's because his WAR was killed by 2 different things. One is that he only pitched 150 innings. And the second if that his peripherals weren't that great. He doesn't strike many people out, and was only average at giving up home runs. The reason he had a 2.98 ERA is because he had a .269 BABIP against (even though he gave up 21.4% line drives) and 81% of the runners who reached base against him were left on base which is really high. So he got some good luck behind him, and then he was unbelievable at pitching out of jams this year.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Yeah his K rate is low and his BB total is a bit high. I wouldn't sell the farm for him, but he's still only 25. I'd be interested in taking a shot at him, but I don't expect the Cubs to be players here.

[TruffleShuffle]

they'd be wise to trade him now; some dumbass org will see his ERA this past year and start drooling.

[Guest]

they'd be wise to trade him now; some dumbass org will see his ERA this past year and start drooling.

 

but not us!

[Tyrant]

Some pitchers just routinely outperform their xFIP. Matt Cain does every year. Jurrjens may be one of those guys. The only year he hasn't done better than his pitching-independent numbers was an injury year. At some point, things become a trend.

 

He may not be 2.98 ERA good, but he's still pretty damn good.

[erik316wttn]

I wouldn't mind Jurrjens if we don't overpay. He could be a good middle-of-the-rotation guy.

[Vanilla Ice]

I wouldn't mind Jurrjens if we don't overpay. He could be a good middle-of-the-rotation guy.

Problem is, we're not going to get him at middle-of-the-rotation value

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I wouldn't mind Jurrjens if we don't overpay. He could be a good middle-of-the-rotation guy.

Problem is, we're not going to get him at middle-of-the-rotation value

 

Yeah theres just no such thing as not overpaying for outside pitching help...it's always at least initially seen as overpaying...with JJ I think it'd stay that way.

[davell]

Braves supposedly offered the Royals the pair for Will Myers and Lorenzo Cain. Myers value is down a tad, but we could come up with something comparable here, couldn't we? Maybe Szczur, Cashner, and their choice of McNutt or Barney? Maybe we have to toss in Lake or Vitters? I'm higher on this pair than most appear to be. But I think Jurrjens is our 2, if we get him and Prado's versatility gives us options moving forward as well.

[Guest]

Braves supposedly offered the Royals the pair for Will Myers and Lorenzo Cain. Myers value is down a tad, but we could come up with something comparable here, couldn't we? Maybe Szczur, Cashner, and their choice of McNutt or Barney? Maybe we have to toss in Lake or Vitters? I'm higher on this pair than most appear to be. But I think Jurrjens is our 2, if we get him and Prado's versatility gives us options moving forward as well.

 

Jurrjens is closer to being our 4 than he is to being our 2. He's a shinier version of Randy Wells. There's nothing wrong with that, especially under team control at age 25, but he's not worth any significant outlay of young talent.

[dew1679666265]

I have some concerns about Jurrjens going forward, primarily based off of his low K/9 numbers. Here's a good article from FanGraphs noting something else concerning about Jurrjens, however.

 

This year, [his strikeout rate] was even lower than usual, as his K/9 dipped all the way to 5.33, nearly two strikeouts below the league average. This is likely attributable to the drop in velocity he experienced this season. Jurrjen’s average velocity has declined in each of his five big-league seasons, but until 2011, the drops were miniscule and not a cause for concern. But this season, his average fastball lost two miles per hour.

 

In looking at his velocity charts, we can see that the top velocity range of some of his 2011 starts don’t even reach the average velocity of some of his 2010 starts. That is a troubling sign, as is the overall drop in velocity over the years.

 

His conclusion is that Jurrjens isn't worth a top prospect and I agree. I can't say I'd be comfortable giving any of Vitters, McNutt, Szczur, or Cashner for him.

 

On Prado, I'd have more interest in him, but I'm really not sure how to value him. His 2011 wasn't good at all, but he's had wOBAs of .355, .357, and .367 the past three seasons before 2011. His only good defensive position is 3B and he's 29. I'd prefer to shoot for Headley than Prado, but if the Braves are looking to sell low on Prado (which they don't appear to be) then I'd have more interest.

[Little Slide Rooter]

KC was reportedly discussing both with the Braves. The proposed package was Wil Myers and Lorenzo Cain. Brett Jackson is comparable to if not better than Cain, but we don't have anything resembling Myers unless you count Castro, so we'd have to go for quantity over quality in any hypothetical deal.

[Clem Fandango]

I have some concerns about Jurrjens going forward, primarily based off of his low K/9 numbers. Here's a good article from FanGraphs noting something else concerning about Jurrjens, however.

 

This year, [his strikeout rate] was even lower than usual, as his K/9 dipped all the way to 5.33, nearly two strikeouts below the league average. This is likely attributable to the drop in velocity he experienced this season. Jurrjen’s average velocity has declined in each of his five big-league seasons, but until 2011, the drops were miniscule and not a cause for concern. But this season, his average fastball lost two miles per hour.

 

In looking at his velocity charts, we can see that the top velocity range of some of his 2011 starts don’t even reach the average velocity of some of his 2010 starts. That is a troubling sign, as is the overall drop in velocity over the years.

 

His conclusion is that Jurrjens isn't worth a top prospect and I agree. I can't say I'd be comfortable giving any of Vitters, McNutt, Szczur, or Cashner for him.

 

On Prado, I'd have more interest in him, but I'm really not sure how to value him. His 2011 wasn't good at all, but he's had wOBAs of .355, .357, and .367 the past three seasons before 2011. His only good defensive position is 3B and he's 29. I'd prefer to shoot for Headley than Prado, but if the Braves are looking to sell low on Prado (which they don't appear to be) then I'd have more interest.

 

To be fair, there is an article from midway through the season that says this...

 

Jonny Venters taught him a two-seam fastball, which Jurrjens has used to great effect (as if we needed another example of Jonny Venters‘ greatness). Jurrjens still isn’t generating as many groundballs as you’d expect a two-seam fastball pitcher to produce. Meanwhile, going away from the four-seamer has netted a nearly two-mile-per-hour drop in his average fastball (which could help explain part of the drop in K rate)

 

But that article is also called "Jair Jurrjens: Lucky SOB, the New Matt Cain, or Both?"

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jair-jurrjens-the-new-cain/

 

I'm not willing to give up any of our top players for him. If there are people who wanna toss guys (plural) like Sczur, McNutt, Jackson, and Cashner at the Braves for a guy like Jurrjens, I think they're insane.

 

If we're gonna empty the farm for a pitcher, why not focus on a legit ace with a proven track record of dominance and not an injury prone mid rotation starter with [expletive] peripherals

[davell]

I don't think we've got the pieces to go get an ace personally. I think adding Jurrjens and Prado could be one stop shopping for us in the trade market though. Although, I admit to liking Jurrjens a little more than I probably should. But I think we'd be looking at adding 2 guys that are combined around a 6 WAR, if healthy. We need Jacksob, don't want to deal him, but I'm completely fine trading off Szczur, McNutt. Vitters or whoever. Fill 2 holes fairly cheaply and have plenty of cash still to address pitching and 1B.

[Clem Fandango]

I don't think we've got the pieces to go get an ace personally. I think adding Jurrjens and Prado could be one stop shopping for us in the trade market though. Although, I admit to liking Jurrjens a little more than I probably should. But I think we'd be looking at adding 2 guys that are combined around a 6 WAR, if healthy. We need Jacksob, don't want to deal him, but I'm completely fine trading off Szczur, McNutt. Vitters or whoever. Fill 2 holes fairly cheaply and have plenty of cash still to address pitching and 1B.

 

I think Jurrjens is worth one of those players and that's about the extent of it. Toss one of them and then a mid-level guy or two to see if that will do it, but I wouldn't consider two of them.

 

I was under the impression that Prado was a lefty killer, but that was Diaz, wasn't it? Prado is pretty even on his lefty/righty splits it seems. The price Jurrjens will fetch will scare me off, but Prado might be worth exploring as a potential 3B option if we can't find a better solution