Hoyer, McLeod officially join Cubs

[treebird]

Interesting quote from McLeod re the Cubs system.

 

http://insidethepadres.blogspot.com/2011/10/q-jason-mcleod.html

 

Q. What do you know about the Cubs farm system?

 

A. From afar, it doesn't look like they have a depth of talent, although they did spend a lot in the draft this year, and I know they've got some high-ceiling guys with some risk. It SOUNDS like it's a little more middle of the road system. Certainly there will be players who are in the big leagues in the near future who do well. (Brett) Jackson. (Trey) McNutt. Junior Lake is playing well in the Fall League.

 

Ouch. Doesn't sound like he was that impressed with the draft, other than the amount spent.

 

all things being equal, it's absolutely in his best interest to downplay the current quality of the system. it will only make him look more impressive when it starts producing talent.

[davell]

Theo kind of made a comment as well that made me think this. Something in his quote about the Cubs finally getting it. Made it sound like spending the cash was great, but he didn't sound enthused about the players either. Or at least didn't let on that he was. Oh well, we definitely did get some high upside guys this year.

[Guest]

Theo kind of made a comment as well that made me think this. Something in his quote about the Cubs finally getting it. Made it sound like spending the cash was great, but he didn't sound enthused about the players either. Or at least didn't let on that he was. Oh well, we definitely did get some high upside guys this year.

 

I didn't get the vibe at all that he didn't like their draft from those comments in the press conference.

[RammyFanny]

His comment could have been taken either way. Without looking it up, he essentially said that he liked our approach to the draft in terms of prioritizing it and spending more, but he also said he wasn't talking about any specific players in general.

[toonsterwu]

One of the more intriguing things is to see which Cubs prospects may benefit as a result of new leadership making evaluations. One guy that comes to mind is Ryan Flaherty, a guy that the old regime seemed to like, but didn't know what to do with.

 

Tim wrote:

I'm not that interested in Headley. He is a little bit better outside of Petco, but his road .805 OPS is inflated by a .374 babip.

 

Tim, have you seen the Laurila interview with Headley? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-chase-headley/

 

He changed his approach to try and fit the park. Now, there's no guarantee he could make new adjustments and find a level of consistency, but considering the raw power that he once showed, I'd be very curious if he could find a different, but equally effective, balance.

[Guest]

One of the more intriguing things is to see which Cubs prospects may benefit as a result of new leadership making evaluations. One guy that comes to mind is Ryan Flaherty, a guy that the old regime seemed to like, but didn't know what to do with.

 

Tim wrote:

I'm not that interested in Headley. He is a little bit better outside of Petco, but his road .805 OPS is inflated by a .374 babip.

 

Tim, have you seen the Laurila interview with Headley? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-chase-headley/

 

He changed his approach to try and fit the park. Now, there's no guarantee he could make new adjustments and find a level of consistency, but considering the raw power that he once showed, I'd be very curious if he could find a different, but equally effective, balance.

Interesting. He's still not at the top of my list, especially considering the likely acquisition cost. It does add a new perspective to his numbers, though.

[toonsterwu]

I'm curious who is at the top of your list for 3rd, then. It's quite possible that we've discussed this in another thread, but I honestly don't keep track of things.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd still like to do a platoon with internal options and use the extra money on 1b and pitching.

[Guest]

I'm curious who is at the top of your list for 3rd, then. It's quite possible that we've discussed this in another thread, but I honestly don't keep track of things.

1) Aramis on a 2 year deal, if he'll take it

2) Wright if the cost is reasonable enough

3) Stewart if Colorado is ready to move on

4) Internal platoon options while investing the $ elsewhere to get the 4 WAR

 

I think I'd prefer all those options to what it would likely take us to trade for Headley. Obviously, the top 3 are all contingent upon either dollar or prospect cost. I guess I could put Headley up there, but I just can't foresee why SD would trade him without getting a lot in return.

[toonsterwu]

I'm curious who is at the top of your list for 3rd, then. It's quite possible that we've discussed this in another thread, but I honestly don't keep track of things.

1) Aramis on a 2 year deal, if he'll take it

2) Wright if the cost is reasonable enough

3) Stewart if Colorado is ready to move on

4) Internal platoon options while investing the $ elsewhere to get the 4 WAR

 

I think I'd prefer all those options to what it would likely take us to trade for Headley. Obviously, the top 3 are all contingent upon either dollar or prospect cost. I guess I could put Headley up there, but I just can't foresee why SD would trade him without getting a lot in return.

 

ah okay. I tend to think the cost of Wright and Stewart will be high relative to what some of the expectations on here are. I don't believe Colorado will move on from Stewart unless they have an upgrade in place, even a veteran upgrade, to bridge the gap to Nolan Arenado. I tend to view 1 as unrealistic, so my, as of now, top 3rd base options look more like

 

1. Chase Headley (if the costs are reasonable)

2. Ian Stewart (if the costs are reasonable)

3. Some Jeff Baker/platoon

...

Down the line ... 4 Kevin Kouzmanoff

 

I think 4 can be done in combination with one of the top 3, as I doubt Kouzmanoff gets a major league deal, but whether or not Kouzmanoff is actually an upgrade to guys like Flaherty/LeMahieu/Marquez Smith at 3rd in Iowa is debatable.

 

Edit: Thinking about it, I guess I could live with Aramis on a 3 year deal, so I think I'd stick him in there ahead of Ian Stewart. But I'm thinking Aramis can get 4 on the open market, probably from an AL team where they could potentially shift him to DH down the line. I'm really not anticipating Aramis back.

 

Edit 2: totally forgot about David Wright. If the costs are reasonable, I'd slide him ahead of Stewart as well, but behind Headley.

[Guest]

I'm curious who is at the top of your list for 3rd, then. It's quite possible that we've discussed this in another thread, but I honestly don't keep track of things.

1) Aramis on a 2 year deal, if he'll take it

2) Wright if the cost is reasonable enough

3) Stewart if Colorado is ready to move on

4) Internal platoon options while investing the $ elsewhere to get the 4 WAR

 

I think I'd prefer all those options to what it would likely take us to trade for Headley. Obviously, the top 3 are all contingent upon either dollar or prospect cost. I guess I could put Headley up there, but I just can't foresee why SD would trade him without getting a lot in return.

 

ah okay. I tend to think the cost of Wright and Stewart will be high relative to what some of the expectations on here are. I don't believe Colorado will move on from Stewart unless they have an upgrade in place, even a veteran upgrade, to bridge the gap to Nolan Arenado. I tend to view 1 as unrealistic, so my, as of now, top 3rd base options look more like

 

1. Chase Headley (if the costs are reasonable)

2. Ian Stewart (if the costs are reasonable)

3. Some Jeff Baker/platoon

...

Down the line ... 4 Kevin Kouzmanoff

 

I think 4 can be done in combination with one of the top 3, as I doubt Kouzmanoff gets a major league deal, but whether or not Kouzmanoff is actually an upgrade to guys like Flaherty/LeMahieu/Marquez Smith at 3rd in Iowa is debatable.

 

Edit: Thinking about it, I guess I could live with Aramis on a 3 year deal, so I think I'd stick him in there ahead of Ian Stewart. But I'm thinking Aramis can get 4 on the open market, probably from an AL team where they could potentially shift him to DH down the line. I'm really not anticipating Aramis back.

 

Edit 2: totally forgot about David Wright. If the costs are reasonable, I'd slide him ahead of Stewart as well, but behind Headley.

What makes you think SD would be willing to move Headley? At all?

[dew1679666265]

1) Aramis on a 2 year deal, if he'll take it

2) Wright if the cost is reasonable enough

3) Stewart if Colorado is ready to move on

4) Internal platoon options while investing the $ elsewhere to get the 4 WAR

 

I think I'd prefer all those options to what it would likely take us to trade for Headley. Obviously, the top 3 are all contingent upon either dollar or prospect cost. I guess I could put Headley up there, but I just can't foresee why SD would trade him without getting a lot in return.

 

What makes you so strongly prefer Stewart to Headley? Is it purely slugging and prospect related? I get preferring Stewart to Headley, but not by as much as you seem to.

[Guest]

1) Aramis on a 2 year deal, if he'll take it

2) Wright if the cost is reasonable enough

3) Stewart if Colorado is ready to move on

4) Internal platoon options while investing the $ elsewhere to get the 4 WAR

 

I think I'd prefer all those options to what it would likely take us to trade for Headley. Obviously, the top 3 are all contingent upon either dollar or prospect cost. I guess I could put Headley up there, but I just can't foresee why SD would trade him without getting a lot in return.

 

What makes you so strongly prefer Stewart to Headley? Is it purely slugging and prospect related? I get preferring Stewart to Headley, but not by as much as you seem to.

I articulated ît a bit more clearly in my article, but I just don't see SD trading headley for anything but a big package. It's the acquisition cost that makes me prefer Stewart more than predicted performance.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I articulated ît a bit more clearly in my article, but I just don't see SD trading headley for anything but a big package. It's the acquisition cost that makes me prefer Stewart more than predicted performance.

 

I think your logic is perfectly fine and I might think the same on a given day, but to me Headley would be a little like adding Garza last year. I don't mind paying the price to get a mere solid starter/above average talent onto this roster, especially a young/prime one that the current GM knows well and apparently really likes. The fact that he's cost controlled until after 2014 also really helps.

 

The only thing that I wouldn't like about it is that I'm a big believer in The Vitters, who he'd be blocking at 3B. That said, I have had thoughts that Vitters could just as easily end up in LF as 3B, and that the bat is really all that I care about in his situation anyway.

[dew1679666265]

I articulated ît a bit more clearly in my article, but I just don't see SD trading headley for anything but a big package. It's the acquisition cost that makes me prefer Stewart more than predicted performance.

 

I think it depends largely on what Byrnes thinks of Headley and what the Rockies want for Stewart. I don't know why the Rockies would be any more motivated to deal Stewart than the Padres would be to deal Headley. Both are the same distance from FA, neither has lit the world on fire in the majors, but both also had really good minor league numbers. Unless I'm missing a prospect chomping at the bit to get to Colorado that San Diego doesn't have.

[dew1679666265]

I think your logic is perfectly fine and I might think the same on a given day, but to me Headley would be a little like adding Garza last year. I don't mind paying the price to get a mere solid starter/above average talent onto this roster, especially a young/prime one that the current GM knows well and apparently really likes. The fact that he's cost controlled until after 2014 also really helps.

 

The only thing that I wouldn't like about it is that I'm a big believer in The Vitters, who he'd be blocking at 3B. That said, I have had thoughts that Vitters could just as easily end up in LF as 3B, and that the bat is really all that I care about in his situation anyway.

 

To make you a bit more conflicted, I'd guess there'd be a good chance Vitters would be in a hypothetical Headley deal. Though my guess is he'd be in either deal, unless Byrnes hates him or something.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

 

To make you a bit more conflicted, I'd guess there'd be a good chance Vitters would be in a hypothetical Headley deal. Though my guess is he'd be in either deal, unless Byrnes hates him or something.

 

It's a possibility. Though, I'm not overly worried about them trading Vitters in a Headley deal.

[Guest]

I articulated ît a bit more clearly in my article, but I just don't see SD trading headley for anything but a big package. It's the acquisition cost that makes me prefer Stewart more than predicted performance.

 

I think it depends largely on what Byrnes thinks of Headley and what the Rockies want for Stewart. I don't know why the Rockies would be any more motivated to deal Stewart than the Padres would be to deal Headley. Both are the same distance from FA, neither has lit the world on fire in the majors, but both also had really good minor league numbers. Unless I'm missing a prospect chomping at the bit to get to Colorado that San Diego doesn't have.

Given Stewart's performance this past season and losing his job, I'd say the acquisition cost would almost certainly be lower.

[toonsterwu]

I'm curious who is at the top of your list for 3rd, then. It's quite possible that we've discussed this in another thread, but I honestly don't keep track of things.

1) Aramis on a 2 year deal, if he'll take it

2) Wright if the cost is reasonable enough

3) Stewart if Colorado is ready to move on

4) Internal platoon options while investing the $ elsewhere to get the 4 WAR

 

I think I'd prefer all those options to what it would likely take us to trade for Headley. Obviously, the top 3 are all contingent upon either dollar or prospect cost. I guess I could put Headley up there, but I just can't foresee why SD would trade him without getting a lot in return.

 

ah okay. I tend to think the cost of Wright and Stewart will be high relative to what some of the expectations on here are. I don't believe Colorado will move on from Stewart unless they have an upgrade in place, even a veteran upgrade, to bridge the gap to Nolan Arenado. I tend to view 1 as unrealistic, so my, as of now, top 3rd base options look more like

 

1. Chase Headley (if the costs are reasonable)

2. Ian Stewart (if the costs are reasonable)

3. Some Jeff Baker/platoon

...

Down the line ... 4 Kevin Kouzmanoff

 

I think 4 can be done in combination with one of the top 3, as I doubt Kouzmanoff gets a major league deal, but whether or not Kouzmanoff is actually an upgrade to guys like Flaherty/LeMahieu/Marquez Smith at 3rd in Iowa is debatable.

 

Edit: Thinking about it, I guess I could live with Aramis on a 3 year deal, so I think I'd stick him in there ahead of Ian Stewart. But I'm thinking Aramis can get 4 on the open market, probably from an AL team where they could potentially shift him to DH down the line. I'm really not anticipating Aramis back.

 

Edit 2: totally forgot about David Wright. If the costs are reasonable, I'd slide him ahead of Stewart as well, but behind Headley.

What makes you think SD would be willing to move Headley? At all?

 

Well, I obviously don't know, but I think they'd ponder it because he's entering Arb 2, and the core of their top young talent is largely below AA or just hitting AA. Reading comments from their top guys about Gyorko makes me think that even though I think he is a bit over-hyped, they think he might be close to ready. It'd take a lot, and what I consider reasonable for Headley, I would consider unreasonable for Wright or Stewart at this stage.

[dew1679666265]

 

To make you a bit more conflicted, I'd guess there'd be a good chance Vitters would be in a hypothetical Headley deal. Though my guess is he'd be in either deal, unless Byrnes hates him or something.

 

It's a possibility. Though, I'm not overly worried about them trading Vitters in a Headley deal.

 

I'm actually a big fan of Vitters, but I think I'd do that deal if I had to. It would obviously depend on Hoyer's belief in Headley and Theo/Hoyer's belief in internal options, but if Hoyer was convinced Headley's numbers would jump moving to Wrigley, I'd be fine with getting him for Vitters. It also depends on what Vitters' value is around the league - I honestly don't know how well other teams value him as a potential trade chip and the answer to that would play a big role in determining how seriously I considered the trade.

 

Here's my reasoning: We know at worst Headley will be a decent, cheap option at third for the next three years. There's a chance his numbers may improve and he becomes a very good third baseman who we consider bringing back after his arbitration years. With Vitters, the upside is far higher than Headley, but so is the risk. There's a very realistic chance Vitters never makes the majors or is cup of coffee and done type player. We'd be trading a major risk for certainty with upside who's cheap.

[toonsterwu]

1) Aramis on a 2 year deal, if he'll take it

2) Wright if the cost is reasonable enough

3) Stewart if Colorado is ready to move on

4) Internal platoon options while investing the $ elsewhere to get the 4 WAR

 

I think I'd prefer all those options to what it would likely take us to trade for Headley. Obviously, the top 3 are all contingent upon either dollar or prospect cost. I guess I could put Headley up there, but I just can't foresee why SD would trade him without getting a lot in return.

 

What makes you so strongly prefer Stewart to Headley? Is it purely slugging and prospect related? I get preferring Stewart to Headley, but not by as much as you seem to.

I articulated ît a bit more clearly in my article, but I just don't see SD trading headley for anything but a big package. It's the acquisition cost that makes me prefer Stewart more than predicted performance.

 

We're obviously speaking about hypotheticals here, but I think people are under-estimating what it would take to get Colorado to let Ian Stewart go. It'd probably/should be less than any hypothetical Headley package, but significantly less? I'm not so sure about that. Who are they going to turn to at 3rd? If his cost is significantly less, then yeah, I'd place him ahead of Headley (put it this way, I don't think either guy gets dealt without say, Trey McNutt as of now).

 

Now, I guess one pie in the sky long shot scenario, since we're speaking hypotheticals here, is the Rockies going after Aramis or David Wright, which might make them more willing to move Ian.

[toonsterwu]

 

To make you a bit more conflicted, I'd guess there'd be a good chance Vitters would be in a hypothetical Headley deal. Though my guess is he'd be in either deal, unless Byrnes hates him or something.

 

It's a possibility. Though, I'm not overly worried about them trading Vitters in a Headley deal.

 

I'm actually a big fan of Vitters, but I think I'd do that deal if I had to. It would obviously depend on Hoyer's belief in Headley and Theo/Hoyer's belief in internal options, but if Hoyer was convinced Headley's numbers would jump moving to Wrigley, I'd be fine with getting him for Vitters. It also depends on what Vitters' value is around the league - I honestly don't know how well other teams value him as a potential trade chip and the answer to that would play a big role in determining how seriously I considered the trade.

 

Here's my reasoning: We know at worst Headley will be a decent, cheap option at third for the next three years. There's a chance his numbers may improve and he becomes a very good third baseman who we consider bringing back after his arbitration years. With Vitters, the upside is far higher than Headley, but so is the risk. There's a very realistic chance Vitters never makes the majors or is cup of coffee and done type player. We'd be trading a major risk for certainty with upside who's cheap.

 

I think there's very little chance that the Padres would go after Vitters. Way too many corner options in the system in the IF. Doesn't seem to be a fit defensively for Petco, to say the least.

 

Since we're just shooting ideas around, I think they would ask for McNutt, and I'd be fine putting him in a deal (they could use an upper level arm, as most of their top tier arm assets are in the lower level). It'd have to be more than McNutt, though.

Edited November 1, 2011 by toonsterwu

[Guest]

Colorado has Wiggington under contract for 2012 with a 2013 option. Wiggy actually got the vast majority of playing time in CO this year - Stewart was so bad he only got 136 PA (and put up a .464 OPS).

[toonsterwu]

Colorado has Wiggington under contract for 2012 with a 2013 option.

 

They really didn't want to turn to Wigginton at 3rd last year. Has that changed? (I really don't know).

[dew1679666265]

Given Stewart's performance this past season and losing his job, I'd say the acquisition cost would almost certainly be lower.

 

There still needs to be motivation to move him out. If he's out of options, I could see them having some motivation if they've completely given up on him. But considering he's only had the one awful year, I don't know if that's a good assumption to make.

 

I think it's just as easy to assume that they were in the middle of a pennant race (at the time) and made a rash decision to get some quick offense and they plan on giving him the job again this season. I just don't see the likelihood that the asking prices are so different that Stewart is your #2 option and Headley doesn't even make your top 4-5.