Re: New GM/Cubs Future News Articles

[dew1679666265]

How in the blue he'll is McNutt worth $12,000,000? he hasn't pitched above high A. I'm wonder how many people even knew who he was before this thread started. He's a good prospect, but let's no go crazy.

 

He started 22 games in AA last year, so he has pitched above high A. He was injured with blisters and (I think) a rib injury last year, so his numbers weren't very good, but BA had him ranked as the #48 prospect in all of baseball prior to 2011. He'll still be a top 100 prospect - and probably fairly high in it - next year.

 

He's a very good prospect who realistically could be in the majors as early as late 2012 (if he gets over his injures and gets off to a good start) or early 2013.

[UMFan83]

It's probably just the no-news dementia setting in, but I'm beginning to entertain the possibility that this doesn't get done.

 

 

Even the likes of Wittenmyer and Levine won't entertain the possibility that it won't get done.

 

Yeah, I just keep coming back to "The Red Sox can't really be that stupid."

 

The Cubs are already paying millions of extra dollars for Epstein instead of going with a lesser-known candidate. If the Red Sox drive the price of Epstein to the point that the Cubs walk away, not only do they get nothing, but they actually lose quite a bit of cash. They can't be that stupid, can they?

 

I suppose the ultimate irony would be if this did fall through and Theo spends 2012 in limbo, and next year the Yankees promote Brian Cashman and hire Theo as their GM. I'm thinking that would make Henry and Luccino wish that they hadn't jerked him around.

 

Meh, at the same time they'd feel pretty smug knowing that the Cubs didn't get him after (in their own impression) failing to recognize the value of Theo.

[Guest]

How in the blue he'll is McNutt worth $12,000,000? he hasn't pitched above high A. I'm wonder how many people even knew who he was before this thread started. He's a good prospect, but let's no go crazy.

 

I'm guessing it's gotta do something with all of the very cheap cost controlled years at whatever he thinks the likely level of production would be, with both the likelihood of success and the likelihood of failure being factored in.

 

 

I have little idea of how one would calculate that, though.

 

Think of it this way. If you take McNutt's ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling, and say on average he'll be a 1 WAR guy for his 6 years of team control. If he pans out he'd be worth way more, if he busts, way less. Considering arbitration and renewals, let's say he'll earn about $15 million over those 6 years. 6 WAR is currently valued about 28 million, which makes McNutt's surplus value about 13 million. If you disagree with how he'll perform or what he'll earn, feel free to plug that in, but that's the math behind the valuation.

[treebird]

this has got to be kind of weird for ricketts. from the moment he bought the cubs, he's always pointed to the red sox as the team he wanted to emulate and the team that knew what it was doing. i hope he doesn't become disillusioned and decide to take up with the mariners instead or something. they may not win a lot but AT LEAST THEY'RE NOT A BUNCH OF JERKS

[Guest]

How in the blue he'll is McNutt worth $12,000,000? he hasn't pitched above high A. I'm wonder how many people even knew who he was before this thread started. He's a good prospect, but let's no go crazy.

 

First, incorrect, he was at AA at the end of last season and this season.

 

Second, imagine he becomes an average MLB pitcher. How much is he worth to the team over his six years of team control, where he would most certainly be massively underpaid?

 

Okay, now multiply that value by the odds of him reaching it.

 

What number do you come up with?

Sorry,

 

I meant above AA.

 

Imagine he has a career ending shoulder injury next year?

 

I'm really in awe of the mental gymnastics try to justify why the Cubs shouldn't be willing to trade any minor league player for a difference maker like Epstein. You say his marginal value isn't that much compared to the mythical replacement. What is the foundation for that? If we want to use your logic Theo could mythically be worth $100 of millions b/c he will be ultimately responsible for all the players in the system.

[UMFan83]

this has got to be kind of weird for ricketts. from the moment he bought the cubs, he's always pointed to the red sox as the team he wanted to emulate and the team that knew what it was doing. i hope he doesn't become disillusioned and decide to take up with the mariners instead or something. they may not win a lot but AT LEAST THEY'RE NOT A BUNCH OF JERKS

 

I said that the other day. I think the "boner for Boston" is gone.

[Guest]

How in the blue he'll is McNutt worth $12,000,000? he hasn't pitched above high A. I'm wonder how many people even knew who he was before this thread started. He's a good prospect, but let's no go crazy.

 

I'm guessing it's gotta do something with all of the very cheap cost controlled years at whatever he thinks the likely level of production would be, with both the likelihood of success and the likelihood of failure being factored in.

 

 

I have little idea of how one would calculate that, though.

 

Think of it this way. If you take McNutt's ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling, and say on average he'll be a 1 WAR guy for his 6 years of team control. If he pans out he'd be worth way more, if he busts, way less. Considering arbitration and renewals, let's say he'll earn about $15 million over those 6 years. 6 WAR is currently valued about 28 million, which makes McNutt's surplus value about 13 million. If you disagree with how he'll perform or what he'll earn, feel free to plug that in, but that's the math behind the valuation.

 

 

Thanks for that. There was a reason I came to this board long before I decided to just make fun of idiots.

[Guest]

What's the true value of a GM? Any GM?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sorry,

 

I meant above AA.

 

Imagine he has a career ending shoulder injury next year?

 

I'm really in awe of the mental gymnastics try to justify why the Cubs shouldn't be willing to trade any minor league player for a difference maker like Epstein. You say his marginal value isn't that much compared to the mythical replacement. What is the foundation for that? If we want to use your logic Theo could mythically be worth $100 of millions b/c he will be ultimately responsible for all the players in the system.

 

So under your theory, if we don't get Epstein, we'd stop drafting or signing minor leaguers? Seems a bit extreme.

[Guest]

How in the blue he'll is McNutt worth $12,000,000? he hasn't pitched above high A. I'm wonder how many people even knew who he was before this thread started. He's a good prospect, but let's no go crazy.

 

First, incorrect, he was at AA at the end of last season and this season.

 

Second, imagine he becomes an average MLB pitcher. How much is he worth to the team over his six years of team control, where he would most certainly be massively underpaid?

 

Okay, now multiply that value by the odds of him reaching it.

 

What number do you come up with?

Sorry,

 

I meant above AA.

 

Imagine he has a career ending shoulder injury next year?

 

I'm really in awe of the mental gymnastics try to justify why the Cubs shouldn't be willing to trade any minor league player for a difference maker like Epstein. You say his marginal value isn't that much compared to the mythical replacement. What is the foundation for that? If we want to use your logic Theo could mythically be worth $100 of millions b/c he will be ultimately responsible for all the players in the system.

 

The likelihood of busting and anything like that is, presumably, factored in to the valuation.

 

That number isn't some "mythical" form of "mental gymnastics" used to justify anything. It's a mathematical valuation and, as TT demonstrated, is pretty much logically sound.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What's the true value of a GM? Any GM?

 

Epstein's is apparently 5 years/$18.5 million.

 

The problem for GMs is that they aren't scarce, but their jobs are.

[Guest]

What's the true value of a GM? Any GM?

 

 

Well, if you allow the market to determine their worth, I know that we can get a good one for a lot less than Theo is costing (I still want Theo).

[dew1679666265]

I'm really in awe of the mental gymnastics try to justify why the Cubs shouldn't be willing to trade any minor league player for a difference maker like Epstein.

 

I don't think Kyle has argued that we shouldn't trade any minor leaguer for Epstein. His argument is that we shouldn't trade a top 50 prospect who is within 1-2 years of reaching the majors for Epstein. And I agree.

[Guest]

No it's mythical value. His value is whatever the Cubs are paying him and what his worth as a tradable asset. The logic might be sound but it's a projection.

 

In theory a GM's value is related to the production of the players on the field. Theo's track record is pretty good. It would seem to me his or any other GMs value to an organization is much greater than any minor leaguer. But that's just me.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

No it's mythical value. His value is whatever the Cubs are paying him and what his worth as a tradable asset. The logic might be sound but it's a projection.

 

In theory a GM's value is related to the production of the players on the field. Theo's track record is pretty good. It would seem to me his or any other GMs value to an organization is much greater than any minor leaguer. But that's just me.

 

A GM's value is intimately related to what the next-best available GM can do.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm really in awe of the mental gymnastics try to justify why the Cubs shouldn't be willing to trade any minor league player for a difference maker like Epstein.

 

I don't think Kyle has argued that we shouldn't trade any minor leaguer for Epstein. His argument is that we shouldn't trade a top 50 prospect who is within 1-2 years of reaching the majors for Epstein. And I agree.

 

If they want a couple of low-A lottery tickets, they can go nuts. As prospects get closer to the majors, their value goes up considerably.

[Serge]

No it's mythical value. His value is whatever the Cubs are paying him and what his worth as a tradable asset. The logic might be sound but it's a projection.

 

In theory a GM's value is related to the production of the players on the field. Theo's track record is pretty good. It would seem to me his or any other GMs value to an organization is much greater than any minor leaguer. But that's just me.

 

If you go back through recent history in prospect for MLer trades, you'll find that the method cited earlier to value Mcnutt comes fairly close to the real market value of MLB prospects. It's not perfect but it's a pretty good rough estimate of his market value.

 

And the bolded part is completely missing the point. The point, like has been said about a million times, is not Theo's value. It's Theo's value compared to the next best option, let's just say that's Hoyer or Byrnes.

 

Byrnes + Mcnutt + Money >>>>> Theo

[Guest]

No it's mythical value. His value is whatever the Cubs are paying him and what his worth as a tradable asset. The logic might be sound but it's a projection.

 

In theory a GM's value is related to the production of the players on the field. Theo's track record is pretty good. It would seem to me his or any other GMs value to an organization is much greater than any minor leaguer. But that's just me.

 

A GM's value is intimately related to what the next-best available GM can do.

What's that?

[woodchip2153]

No it's mythical value. His value is whatever the Cubs are paying him and what his worth as a tradable asset. The logic might be sound but it's a projection.

 

In theory a GM's value is related to the production of the players on the field. Theo's track record is pretty good. It would seem to me his or any other GMs value to an organization is much greater than any minor leaguer. But that's just me.

 

water is much more valuable to sustaining human life, but yet diamonds cost more.

[Bote McBoteface]

No it's mythical value. His value is whatever the Cubs are paying him and what his worth as a tradable asset. The logic might be sound but it's a projection.

 

In theory a GM's value is related to the production of the players on the field. Theo's track record is pretty good. It would seem to me his or any other GMs value to an organization is much greater than any minor leaguer. But that's just me.

 

water is much more valuable to sustaining human life, but yet diamonds cost more.

 

 

riiiiiiiiiight

[Vinestal]

No it's mythical value. His value is whatever the Cubs are paying him and what his worth as a tradable asset. The logic might be sound but it's a projection.

 

In theory a GM's value is related to the production of the players on the field. Theo's track record is pretty good. It would seem to me his or any other GMs value to an organization is much greater than any minor leaguer. But that's just me.

 

water is much more valuable to sustaining human life, but yet diamonds cost more.

and Jesus walked on water, but wtf does any of that have to do with the topic of this thread? Man, you guys make my head hurt.

[PrimeTime]

nickcafardo Nick Cafardo

Source: Red Sox holding ground on compensation from Cubs for Theo Epstein. Still hopeful of resolution before WS

[BCVM22]

So he's still hopeful of a resolution some time before 7 PM CT tomorrow?

 

Terrific. Still hopeful of something hopefully happening, maybe, hopefully.

Edited October 18, 2011 by BCVM22

[Vinestal]

nickcafardo Nick Cafardo

Source: Red Sox holding ground on compensation from Cubs for Theo Epstein. Still hopeful of resolution before WS

If they are holding their ground there wont be a resolution any time soon. [expletive] bastards son of a bitches. *sigh*

[Vinestal]

So he's still hopeful of a resolution some time before 7 PM CT tomorrow?

 

Terrific. Still hopeful of something hopefully happening, maybe, hopefully.

lol Im assuming thats sarcasm.