Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-31-11

[Outshined_One]

Box Scores

 

Iowa lost 5-1 Box Score

 

CF B. Jackson 0/2, 2 BB, K, Assist (2B)

2B DJ LeMahieu 0/4, K

LF B. Snyder 1/2, 2 BB

RF L. Montanez 1/3, K, HBP

1B S. Moore 1/4, R, 2B (12), K

C S. Clevenger 1/4

3B R. Flaherty 1/4, RBI, 2B (6), E (1, fielding)

SS M. Gonzalez 1/4

SP J. Jackson 4.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 4-5 GO-FO

RP R. Coello 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 1-1 GO-FO

RP J. Gaub 1 perfect, 1 K, 0-1 GO-FO

RP B. Parker 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 1-1 GO-FO

 

Tennessee won 2-1 Box Score

 

CF JH Ha 2/4, R, CS (4)

3B J. Vitters 0/3, K

1B R. Ridling 1/3, RBI, 2B (20), K

LF M. Spencer 0/1, 2 BB

SS J. Lake 0/3

SP R. Searle 7.1 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, HBP, 9-3 GO-FO

RP K. Rhoderick .2 perfect, 2 K

RP R. Dolis 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, 2-0 GO-FO

 

Daytona won 3-0 Box Score

 

CF M. Szczur 0/4, K

SS L. Watkins 3/4, R, RBI, 2B (11), K

LF E. Crawford 2/3, R, K, SB (27)

1B J. Bour 0/2, 2 BB

3B G. Rohan 2/4, RBI, K

RF A. Abreu 0/2, 2 BB, RBI

C C. Noble 0/4, 2 K

SP C. Harman 7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 4-8 GO-FO

RP F. Batista 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 3-2 GO-FO

 

Peoria lost 2-1 in the 11th Box Score

 

CF/LF T. Easterling 1/5, CS (5), PO (1B)

2B A. Alcantara 0/4, BB, 2 K

3B D. Geiger 0/5, K, E (3, fielding)

1B R. Jones 1/5, R, 2 K, E (6, fielding)

SS E. Soto 3/4, RBI, K

C S. Burruel 0/5

DH B. May 0/3, BB, 2 K

LF B. Klafczynski 0/3, K

PH/CF R. Silva 1/1

SP A. Kirk 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, HBP, 6-3 GO-FO

RP R. Pichardo 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 4-1 GO-FO

 

Boise lost 9-4 Box Score

 

2B Z. DeVoss 2/5, RBI, 2B (2)

LF PC Chen 0/5, 3 K

C R. Lopez 0/3, RBI, E (5, throw)

DH P. Hoilman 0/3, BB, 2 K

CF R. Golden 0/4, R, K, E (4, throw)

RF J. Morelli 2/4, 2B (1)

SS W. Darvill 1/4, R, K

1B W. Contreras 0/4

3B K. Socorro 2/4, 2 R

SP A. Reed 5 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, HR, Balk, 5-3 GO-FO

RP JY Kim 2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1-2 GO-FO

RP C. Richardson 1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 0-2 GO-FO

 

AZL Cubs lost 7-2 Box Score

 

CF D. Martin 2/5, CS (1)

SS M. Hernandez 1/5, 3B (3), K

2B/3B G. Amaya 0/3, K, HBP

LF DY Kim 0/4, R, K, 2 SB (10)

DH N. Rosario 2/4, R, 2 RBI, HR (1)

RF KM Na 0/3, BB, K

SP H. Ackerman 4+ IP, 3 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, HBP, 6-3 GO-FO, E (2, pickoff)

RP F. Pena 3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 2-4 GO-FO

RP S. McDonald 2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 2-4 GO-FO

 

OVERALL: 2-4

[Guest]

Probable Starters

 

Iowa: RHP Jay Jackson (5-10, 6.23 ERA, 99.2 IP, 63 K, 31 BB)

Tennessee: RHP Ryan Searle (2-2, 4.25 ERA, 42.1 IP, 40 K, 25 BB; overall: 3-4, 3.18 ERA, 70.2 IP, 67 K, 39 BB)

Daytona: LHP Casey Harman (2-1, 4.74 ERA, 24.2 IP, 21 K, 3 BB; overall: 3-2, 2.52 ERA, 50 IP, 48 K, 7 BB)

Peoria: LHP Austin Kirk (5-7, 3.54 ERA, 112 IP, 97 K, 27 BB)

Boise: RHP Austin Reed (0-2, 6.62 ERA, 34 IP, 20 K, 16 BB)

AZL Cubs: LHP Hunter Ackerman (0-2, 3.19 ERA, 31 IP, 37 K, 15 BB)

[Guest]

Neftali Rosario hit his first pro HR today.

[THISisTHEyear09]

Nice Outing for Austin today =D>

[toonsterwu]

Bad error by Flaherty leads to runs in the first for Memphis. Jay Jackson has a high pitch count as a result. Threw a fair amount of sliders in the first - doesn't seem to have much bite on it, but hard to tell. Did get a K on a slider, but it was Freddie Bynum. Still feel like Jay is better off in the pen, where he can let it rip a bit more. Trying to remember how he looked in Peoria/Daytona/Tennessee coming up, and I don't recall him being so ... not the best word choice, but he seems a bit rigid. Granted, it's helped bring down his walk rate, whatever he's been doing since getting to AAA.

 

Brett Jackson showed solid arm strength and accuracy on a throw home, but the runner was stopped at 3rd.

[toonsterwu]

ouch ... Brett Jackson froze completely on a breaking ball on a 3-2 count, with me on 2nd and 3rd. He had a good battle with Broderick, looked like he wasn't expecting the breaking ball after being thrown the sinker and I think a 4-seamer the previous two pitches.

[Guest]

Szczur played today.

[toonsterwu]

Fairly disappointed in how DJ LeMahieu is playing in Iowa. Still making contact, but he's slapping and spraying. At the end of this run in Tennessee this year, he was actually driving the ball fairly well. I just wonder if the call-up, and subsequent inconsistent AB's, hurt whatever development he was making.

 

Watching Flaherty play 3rd, I think he has a shot to stick there, but he needs a ton more work. His instincts at the spot need development.

[sandbergcubs]

Strong outings today from a few levels, Searle 7.1 1 ER 7 K, Harman 7 0 runs 4ks and of course kirk

[Little Slide Rooter]

Strong outings today from a few levels, Searle 7.1 1 ER 7 K, Harman 7 0 runs 4ks and of course kirk

 

Now who wasnt strong was Jay Jackson. Ill be surprised if the protect him from the Rule 5 next year.

[Outshined_One]

Yeesh, how many late inning leads has Peoria blown this season?

[videographer]

Has Casey Harman moved past Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin and Austin Kirk as the Cubs best soft-tossing lefty prospect? He was a very successful college pitcher. He has pitched very well from day one in the minors. His stats have all the right numbers: low ERA, WHIP, opp. BA., very good BB/K ratio, etc. I can only recall one bad day on the mound. I don't think he will ever get any love from BA or any other online ranking service, but his success needs to be watched.

 

He may turn out to be better than the three I mentioned above. Soft-tossing success stories usually don't come from the top rounds of the draft. Harman may turn out to be a 29th round ML pitcher.

[Guest]

I would put him just in front of Raley, behind Kirk and Rusin.

[sneakypower]

Logan Watkins

 

April - May:

.196/.283/.270

.264 babip

22.89% k/pa

 

June - July:

.363/.427/.536

.440 babip

17.59% k/pa

[SouthSideRyan]

Is there anything close to reliable on minor league LD%? Obviously he's hitting for a lot more power, but it'd be nice to see that his BABIP is just really high than historically high

[toonsterwu]

Depending on how Antigua finishes, he's definitely in that mix. Del Valle probably has a better fastball than all of them, so not sure if he qualifies in this discussion. Zach Rosscup has had himself a strong year. Graham Hicks probably gets in the discussion as well, due to projection.

 

As of now, I think I would rank our lefty starters

 

(the gap from top to bottom wouldn't be much)

 

1. Chris Rusin - Tops the list because the difference in stuff from top to bottom isn't much, and he's the safest bet to reach the bigs in some role. Not much has changed - still an end of the rotation/pen type. Will get his ground balls.

 

2. Jeffry Antigua - Giving him the edge over fellow A+ arms as he's got a slightly higher ceiling and shows a better ability to get ground balls. Was actually leaning towards slotting him first, so may change my mind on placement. A lot depends on how he finishes.

 

3. Zach Rosscup - This was a tough call amongst Harman/Raley, but Rosscup is a bit more projectable than both, and thus gets the slight nod.

 

4. Casey Harman - Polished, but low ceiling. Looks like another Rusin.

 

5. Brooks Raley - Feels like this is a bit harsh, but inability to miss bats is troubling.

 

6. Frank del Valle - Seems like he might have the highest ceiling. Is he a starter long run?

 

7. Austin Kirk - Feel like I should place him higher, but low ceiling and in Low A right now. His stuff isn't significantly better to jump him.

 

8. Graham Hicks - Probably the most projectable arm of the bunch.

 

Honestly, I wouldn't have a problem if someone wanted to rank this in the reverse order either. It's that close from 1-8 for me. I don't think any of these guys crack the top 20, and at best, a couple crack the top 30, I think.

[Guest]

I'm not sure how reliable it is, but First Inning has it.

 

Watkins

April/May: 11%

June/July: 19%

 

So according to that, his LD%/BABIP spread has stayed consistent.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm not sure how reliable it is, but First Inning has it.

 

Watkins

April/May: 11%

June/July: 19%

 

So according to that, his LD%/BABIP spread has stayed consistent.

 

Nope, his BABIP is 440 for June/July. Though, that April/May BABIP is definitely lower than expected given his speed.

[Guest]

Math is hard. Looking month by month, his July is the one that is truly disproportionate from a BABIP standpoint.

[Guest]

Depending on how Antigua finishes, he's definitely in that mix. Del Valle probably has a better fastball than all of them, so not sure if he qualifies in this discussion. Zach Rosscup has had himself a strong year. Graham Hicks probably gets in the discussion as well, due to projection.

 

As of now, I think I would rank our lefty starters

 

(the gap from top to bottom wouldn't be much)

 

1. Chris Rusin - Tops the list because the difference in stuff from top to bottom isn't much, and he's the safest bet to reach the bigs in some role. Not much has changed - still an end of the rotation/pen type. Will get his ground balls.

 

2. Jeffry Antigua - Giving him the edge over fellow A+ arms as he's got a slightly higher ceiling and shows a better ability to get ground balls. Was actually leaning towards slotting him first, so may change my mind on placement. A lot depends on how he finishes.

 

3. Zach Rosscup - This was a tough call amongst Harman/Raley, but Rosscup is a bit more projectable than both, and thus gets the slight nod.

 

4. Casey Harman - Polished, but low ceiling. Looks like another Rusin.

 

5. Brooks Raley - Feels like this is a bit harsh, but inability to miss bats is troubling.

 

6. Frank del Valle - Seems like he might have the highest ceiling. Is he a starter long run?

 

7. Austin Kirk - Feel like I should place him higher, but low ceiling and in Low A right now. His stuff isn't significantly better to jump him.

 

8. Graham Hicks - Probably the most projectable arm of the bunch.

 

Honestly, I wouldn't have a problem if someone wanted to rank this in the reverse order either. It's that close from 1-8 for me. I don't think any of these guys crack the top 20, and at best, a couple crack the top 30, I think.

 

I definitely would rate Antigua (and Willengton Cruz) ahead of the other lefties you mentioned. They have the best stuff amongst the lefty starters in the system and Cruz still has some growth in him.

 

I don't know enough about Del Valle to rate him.

 

The rest are just a big group of similar enough guys who I'd rate differently on any given day.

[toonsterwu]

ah I completely forgot about Cruz. Yeah, he's definitely at the top of the list.

 

Have there been new reports on Antigua's stuff? The latest I heard was still high 80's/low 90's on fb with decent movement, slightly above average slider, maybe above average change (or did i flip the two). My issue with ranking Antigua ahead of the rest right now is that, while his stuff is slightly ahead of the others, I still want to see how that stuff plays over a longer stretch as a starter. That said, by season's, could definitely see myself sliding Antigua solidly ahead of the others, behind Cruz.

 

I think it's Cruz, and then the rest of the bunch. The guy I'm still most curious about is Graham Hicks, who I saw last year and was quite intrigued with his upside. I mean, on upside/projection, I think a case could be made for him to be 2nd on this list.

[Guest]

ah I completely forgot about Cruz. Yeah, he's definitely at the top of the list.

 

Have there been new reports on Antigua's stuff? The latest I heard was still high 80's/low 90's on fb with decent movement, slightly above average slider, maybe above average change (or did i flip the two). My issue with ranking Antigua ahead of the rest right now is that, while his stuff is slightly ahead of the others, I still want to see how that stuff plays over a longer stretch as a starter. That said, by season's, could definitely see myself sliding Antigua solidly ahead of the others, behind Cruz.

 

I think it's Cruz, and then the rest of the bunch. The guy I'm still most curious about is Graham Hicks, who I saw last year and was quite intrigued with his upside. I mean, on upside/projection, I think a case could be made for him to be 2nd on this list.

 

I believe Antigua's second best pitch is his change.