Does Philadelphia care about the future?

[CubColtPacer]

From this ESPN report here:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110729/ranking-mlb-trade-chips

 

The Phillies initially offered their two best prospects, pitcher Jarred Cosart and first baseman Jonathan Singleton, and were told that wasn't enough. The Phillies then offered to include their right fielder, Domonic Brown. But the Astros, according to one team that spoke with them, would prefer to spin Brown elsewhere for multiple prospects than take him themselves.

 

So both clubs have been contacting other teams, trying to construct a creative enough deal to work for everybody. According to an official of one club that got drawn into those talks, the chances of that happening are "50-50." But it sure won't be because they aren't actively trying.

 

What is the Phillies plan for 3 years from now? They seem to actively be getting rid of all their young players. Hunter Pence isn't old and has 2 more arbitration years left, but that's just one more big contract for them-and if they're getting rid of Brown and their top two prospects they can't seem to have too much ready to come up and provide cheap production.

 

Edit: Of course, it never says they offered all three together. Still the general point is there-I understand improving your team, but how far do you do that at the expense of your future?

[UMFan83]

Yeah they seem to run their team like its an MLB The Show Franchise.

 

Cliff Lee? How sick would it be to have him with Hamels, Halladay and Oswalt? Awesome let's get him...i'm not going to play this franchise mode long enough to see those prospects get better anyways.

 

I need an OF, hey Hunter Pence is available but they are asking for a crapload. Lets blow them away with our 3 top prospects.

[dew1679666265]

Speaking of which, if the Phillies did in fact offer all three of those guys together, what in the world are the Astros thinking to turn that offer down? Pence is a nice player, but not that nice.

[Bruno7481]

Flags fly forever. I dont think it's wrong to go for it like they have. Wish the Cubs were doing the same thing.

[dew1679666265]

Flags fly forever. I dont think it's wrong to go for it like they have. Wish the Cubs were doing the same thing.

 

If you get the flags, sure. If you don't, however, then when that 3 year window closes, you're looking at either floundering for a while as you rebuild your farm system or being like the Cubs in the Hendry era and filling every roster spot with FAs and loading up way too many contracts to win with any consistency.

[BCVM22]

Looks like they're going for it.

 

@Ken_RosenthalKen Rosenthal

 

Sources: #Phillies close to acquiring #Astros' Pence. Deal expected to be completed tonight. #tradedeadline #MLB

 

http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/97106371375407104

 

"Singleton, Cosart and 2 PTBNL"

[Bruno7481]

Flags fly forever. I dont think it's wrong to go for it like they have. Wish the Cubs were doing the same thing.

 

If you get the flags, sure. If you don't, however, then when that 3 year window closes, you're looking at either floundering for a while as you rebuild your farm system or being like the Cubs in the Hendry era and filling every roster spot with FAs and loading up way too many contracts to win with any consistency.

 

The Phillies have had much more than a 3 year window. They have been good for a while. I have my doubts on Pence, but I love how they go and get exactly what they want. These prospects are not guaranteed commodities. Being able to recognize that and turn them into proven young production makes sense.

[Guest]

Flags fly forever. I dont think it's wrong to go for it like they have. Wish the Cubs were doing the same thing.

 

If you get the flags, sure. If you don't, however, then when that 3 year window closes, you're looking at either floundering for a while as you rebuild your farm system or being like the Cubs in the Hendry era and filling every roster spot with FAs and loading up way too many contracts to win with any consistency.

 

The Phillies have had much more than a 3 year window. They have been good for a while. I have my doubts on Pence, but I love how they go and get exactly what they want. These prospects are not guaranteed commodities. Being able to recognize that and turn them into proven young production makes sense.

 

The Phillies' success has been built on the backs of cost effective young hitters. First it was Rollins, Burrell, Abreu, and to a lesser extent Byrd, and then Utley, Howard, Victorino, and Werth. Right now they have one regular under the age of 30, and that's Brown, who hasn't made good on his potential yet. They've sustained their success with their hitters falling off a bit by buying up top flight pitching and growing their payroll exponentially, and they deserve credit for picking admirable targets to acquire. But trading cost effective players at the rate they have been is just not sustainable as their core ages and declines.

[toonsterwu]

They are in win-now mode with the age of their pitching staff and offensive core. If their window is more than 3 years, it's not much more than that. Add in a thin upper level, but a primed lower level, their usual aggressive drafting philosophy , and it's a gamble worth taking. It's going to be hard to have a pitching staff as good as they have (with Worley stepping in fine for Oswalt).

 

I'm also not nearly as big on Cosart and Singleton as others are. Singleton is also pretty much blocked in Philly, as he's pretty much a first baseman. They have Cosart level arms in, if not better, in May, Biddle, and Colvin. If it's Cosart/Singleton and two lesser pieces, I think it's a gamble worth taking. If it's Cosart and another top arm? Then it becomes a bit more debatable, as I'm not sold that Pence takes them up significantly.

[Guest]

They are in win-now mode with the age of their pitching staff and offensive core. If their window is more than 3 years, it's not much more than that. Add in a thin upper level, but a primed lower level, their usual aggressive drafting philosophy , and it's a gamble worth taking. It's going to be hard to have a pitching staff as good as they have (with Worley stepping in fine for Oswalt).

 

I'm also not nearly as big on Cosart and Singleton as others are. Singleton is also pretty much blocked in Philly, as he's pretty much a first baseman. They have Cosart level arms in, if not better, in May, Biddle, and Colvin. If it's Cosart/Singleton and two lesser pieces, I think it's a gamble worth taking. If it's Cosart and another top arm? Then it becomes a bit more debatable, as I'm not sold that Pence takes them up significantly.

 

You'd think they could get better than Pence for Cosart and Singleton.

[Pushfrog98]

Does this help Byrd's value? I would suspect that it does.

[dew1679666265]

The Phillies have had much more than a 3 year window. They have been good for a while. I have my doubts on Pence, but I love how they go and get exactly what they want. These prospects are not guaranteed commodities. Being able to recognize that and turn them into proven young production makes sense.

 

As TT pointed out their success to this point hasn't been built on trading away every good young player in their system. Had it been, it wouldn't have lasted more than 3-4 years. The strategy isn't necessarily wrong, since if you do it right and get some luck you'll net 1-3 titles out of it. However, if it doesn't work you handicap yourself for multiple years with on real reward.

[dew1679666265]

Does this help Byrd's value? I would suspect that it does.

 

Very doubtful. Pence is 6 years younger than Byrd and while both have been worth 17 wins in their careers, Byrd has been worth that many wins in 10 years while Pence has been worth it in 6 years. Pence is a far more valuable player than Byrd.

[dew1679666265]

Josh Zeid is one of the two PTBNLs. The other is still unknown.

[Tarver]

They are in win-now mode with the age of their pitching staff and offensive core. If their window is more than 3 years, it's not much more than that. Add in a thin upper level, but a primed lower level, their usual aggressive drafting philosophy , and it's a gamble worth taking. It's going to be hard to have a pitching staff as good as they have (with Worley stepping in fine for Oswalt).

 

I'm also not nearly as big on Cosart and Singleton as others are. Singleton is also pretty much blocked in Philly, as he's pretty much a first baseman. They have Cosart level arms in, if not better, in May, Biddle, and Colvin. If it's Cosart/Singleton and two lesser pieces, I think it's a gamble worth taking. If it's Cosart and another top arm? Then it becomes a bit more debatable, as I'm not sold that Pence takes them up significantly.

 

You said it kid. Cosart is nice, but IMO Singleton's value comes more from perceived value than actual MLB skills. Kind of reminds me of Daric Barton.

 

When you're all in like the Phils are, better to stay all in then go about it half-assed.

[TruffleShuffle]

The Phillies' success has been built on the backs of cost effective young hitters. First it was Rollins, Burrell, Abreu, and to a lesser extent Byrd, and then Utley, Howard, Victorino, and Werth. Right now they have one regular under the age of 30, and that's Brown, who hasn't made good on his potential yet. They've sustained their success with their hitters falling off a bit by buying up top flight pitching and growing their payroll exponentially, and they deserve credit for picking admirable targets to acquire. But trading cost effective players at the rate they have been is just not sustainable as their core ages and declines.

 

well now they have a second, because pence isn't a free agent until after the 2013 season.

 

i like this trade a lot for philly. they didn't give up brown (the offer was never brown/singleton/cosart), didn't give up worley (who will probably be the #5 next year), singleton was always going to be blocked by howard... basically ibanez goes away after this year and they've got pence, victorino and brown in the OF for another year or two. it's not paying big for a one year rental, they'll have the same loaded SP core next year (hamels is RFA - possibly traded?) and the same offensive core, possibly minus rollins. but the point remains that their window will remain very open next year and probably into 2013, and even when their window closes with their current core of talent, they've been so successful that they're now run like a very large market team and have the resources to improve quickly.

[jersey cubs fan]

Being awesome for a decade would suck.

 

 

There's no such thing as a window with a big market organization. If the cubs can theoretically bounce back and contend in 2012 Philly can just as easily bounce back from a bad year, if they ever have one.

 

 

 

 

Future? The cubs tried that a dozen years ago and failed miserably. You win when you can.

[toonsterwu]

They are in win-now mode with the age of their pitching staff and offensive core. If their window is more than 3 years, it's not much more than that. Add in a thin upper level, but a primed lower level, their usual aggressive drafting philosophy , and it's a gamble worth taking. It's going to be hard to have a pitching staff as good as they have (with Worley stepping in fine for Oswalt).

 

I'm also not nearly as big on Cosart and Singleton as others are. Singleton is also pretty much blocked in Philly, as he's pretty much a first baseman. They have Cosart level arms in, if not better, in May, Biddle, and Colvin. If it's Cosart/Singleton and two lesser pieces, I think it's a gamble worth taking. If it's Cosart and another top arm? Then it becomes a bit more debatable, as I'm not sold that Pence takes them up significantly.

 

You'd think they could get better than Pence for Cosart and Singleton.

 

I know I'm in the minority on this, but I'm just not as big on Cosart and Singleton as others. Watching Singleton this year, I'm not real sold that this is some 30+ HR masher in the bigs. Maybe he develops some more, but I think his power ceiling was overhyped. The one time I saw Cosart, his secondary stuff was ridiculously inconsistent and looked really raw. As inconsistent as, say, McNutt, has been this year, I don't see the difference between McNutt and Cosart that some people are claiming. Cosart's fastball is better, but his curve isn't a consistent plus pitch yet.

 

This isn't to say this is a bad deal for Houston. It's a solid deal. I just see some people wording this as a huge win for Houston, and since I'm not as big on those two as others, I'm just not buying that this is a huge win yet. I tend to think this was a deal that makes sense for both sides - Philly had other pitching prospects at a similar skill level, and Singleton was blocked enough, while Pence, while not a super-star, does improve their chances to win this year.

Edited July 30, 2011 by toonsterwu

[toonsterwu]

They are in win-now mode with the age of their pitching staff and offensive core. If their window is more than 3 years, it's not much more than that. Add in a thin upper level, but a primed lower level, their usual aggressive drafting philosophy , and it's a gamble worth taking. It's going to be hard to have a pitching staff as good as they have (with Worley stepping in fine for Oswalt).

 

I'm also not nearly as big on Cosart and Singleton as others are. Singleton is also pretty much blocked in Philly, as he's pretty much a first baseman. They have Cosart level arms in, if not better, in May, Biddle, and Colvin. If it's Cosart/Singleton and two lesser pieces, I think it's a gamble worth taking. If it's Cosart and another top arm? Then it becomes a bit more debatable, as I'm not sold that Pence takes them up significantly.

 

You said it kid. Cosart is nice, but IMO Singleton's value comes more from perceived value than actual MLB skills. Kind of reminds me of Daric Barton.

 

When you're all in like the Phils are, better to stay all in then go about it half-assed.

 

I will say I like Singleton more than I liked Barton, though. With Barton, it was always clear that he wasn't going to hit for much power. With Singleton, I think I could envision some 20-25 HR seasons. I just think his power ceiling was overhyped, and for a corner IF prospect, that's a big deal.

[toonsterwu]

Josh Zeid is one of the two PTBNLs. The other is still unknown.

 

I actually like Zeid a fair amount. I wonder if Houston puts him in the rotation or moves him to the pen.

[CubColtPacer]

The Phillies' success has been built on the backs of cost effective young hitters. First it was Rollins, Burrell, Abreu, and to a lesser extent Byrd, and then Utley, Howard, Victorino, and Werth. Right now they have one regular under the age of 30, and that's Brown, who hasn't made good on his potential yet. They've sustained their success with their hitters falling off a bit by buying up top flight pitching and growing their payroll exponentially, and they deserve credit for picking admirable targets to acquire. But trading cost effective players at the rate they have been is just not sustainable as their core ages and declines.

 

well now they have a second, because pence isn't a free agent until after the 2013 season.

 

i like this trade a lot for philly. they didn't give up brown (the offer was never brown/singleton/cosart), didn't give up worley (who will probably be the #5 next year), singleton was always going to be blocked by howard... basically ibanez goes away after this year and they've got pence, victorino and brown in the OF for another year or two. it's not paying big for a one year rental, they'll have the same loaded SP core next year (hamels is RFA - possibly traded?) and the same offensive core, possibly minus rollins. but the point remains that their window will remain very open next year and probably into 2013, and even when their window closes with their current core of talent, they've been so successful that they're now run like a very large market team and have the resources to improve quickly.

 

Not including Brown makes this deal a whole lot better for the Phillies (even Brown instead of the prospects was likely going to be a bad switch for Philadelphia). Pence will probably make about 10 million next year and probably be worth that.

 

The only issue I have is that the Phillies are starting to get very old very quickly. Most of their offensive guys will either be overpaid in their next contract or have to be let go because they're in the danger zone (early to mid 30's). Pence will be younger then most, but even he will be about to turn 31 when he hits free agency. Howard's deal will continue to get worse and worse.

 

Who on the current Phillies roster is it worth it to re-sign? Hamels, and that might be it. So as those players come to free agency they will increasingly have a hard time finding replacements for them. And if they have few prospects who will come up and help, they are basically going to be re-working almost their entire team through free agency by the end of 2013 (with some coming due at the end of each of those years). That's not a good model. They could have found ways to make this team a little better while making sure they had some plan for beyond the next year or two.

[TruffleShuffle]

The only issue I have is that the Phillies are starting to get very old very quickly. Most of their offensive guys will either be overpaid in their next contract or have to be let go because they're in the danger zone (early to mid 30's). Pence will be younger then most, but even he will be about to turn 31 when he hits free agency. Howard's deal will continue to get worse and worse.

 

Who on the current Phillies roster is it worth it to re-sign? Hamels, and that might be it. So as those players come to free agency they will increasingly have a hard time finding replacements for them. And if they have few prospects who will come up and help, they are basically going to be re-working almost their entire team through free agency by the end of 2013 (with some coming due at the end of each of those years). That's not a good model. They could have found ways to make this team a little better while making sure they had some plan for beyond the next year or two.

 

it doesn't really matter that much if your team is getting old if they're still good. halladay is 7 years past most baseball players' peak ages and is the best pitcher in baseball. cliff lee is not far behind him. utley is still one of the best 2b in baseball. victorino is one of the best cf.

 

i guess you can hand-wring about what will happen when your players reach free agency, whether they'll be overpaid or worth keeping, but the phillies are going to win the NL east for the 5th year in a row, they've won two pennants and one world series, they're favorites to make the world series again this year, and on paper they're expected to be very good next year. if you can be the best team in your league for a six-year stretch and win at least one championship, why would you piss away that chance because you don't want to give up kyle drabek or jonathon singleton?

 

plus i don't know what your suggestion is for "making this team a little better while making sure they had some plan beyond the next year or two." nobody is looking to trade tim lincecum or felix hernandez. roy halladay was available and they went out and got him for a price that looks pretty modest in hindsight. the price they paid for oswalt wasn't too bad either, selling high on j.a. happ. pence looks to be part of the team for the next 2+ years. i just don't see where you think they're improving the team significantly without paying a price in prospects. very few teams are trading good 20-something players, and the team that did trade one just gave their best player to the phillies.

[CubColtPacer]

The only issue I have is that the Phillies are starting to get very old very quickly. Most of their offensive guys will either be overpaid in their next contract or have to be let go because they're in the danger zone (early to mid 30's). Pence will be younger then most, but even he will be about to turn 31 when he hits free agency. Howard's deal will continue to get worse and worse.

 

Who on the current Phillies roster is it worth it to re-sign? Hamels, and that might be it. So as those players come to free agency they will increasingly have a hard time finding replacements for them. And if they have few prospects who will come up and help, they are basically going to be re-working almost their entire team through free agency by the end of 2013 (with some coming due at the end of each of those years). That's not a good model. They could have found ways to make this team a little better while making sure they had some plan for beyond the next year or two.

 

it doesn't really matter that much if your team is getting old if they're still good. halladay is 7 years past most baseball players' peak ages and is the best pitcher in baseball. cliff lee is not far behind him. utley is still one of the best 2b in baseball. victorino is one of the best cf.

 

i guess you can hand-wring about what will happen when your players reach free agency, whether they'll be overpaid or worth keeping, but the phillies are going to win the NL east for the 5th year in a row, they've won two pennants and one world series, they're favorites to make the world series again this year, and on paper they're expected to be very good next year. if you can be the best team in your league for a six-year stretch and win at least one championship, why would you piss away that chance because you don't want to give up kyle drabek or jonathon singleton?

 

plus i don't know what your suggestion is for "making this team a little better while making sure they had some plan beyond the next year or two." nobody is looking to trade tim lincecum or felix hernandez. roy halladay was available and they went out and got him for a price that looks pretty modest in hindsight. the price they paid for oswalt wasn't too bad either, selling high on j.a. happ. pence looks to be part of the team for the next 2+ years. i just don't see where you think they're improving the team significantly without paying a price in prospects. very few teams are trading good 20-something players, and the team that did trade one just gave their best player to the phillies.

 

My feeling is that there was no reason for them to sell out in order to win now. They built up an almost perfect organizational structure-they had the pieces to both win now and win in the future. They've lost that over the last couple of years in an effort to build the perfect team. I'd rather have a great team for 10-15 years than an almost perfect team for 5 and an average team the other 5. There are times where even a contending teams shouldn't make a marginal improvement for now at the expense of later and I think the Phillies hit that point a while ago.

[Tyrant]

I'd rather have a great team for 10-15 years than an almost perfect team for 5 and an average team the other 5.

 

Well, sure. But that seems like sort of an unfair scenario you've set up. There's no guarantee that hanging onto prospects, rather than trading them, will make a team "great" for 10-15 years.

[CubColtPacer]

I'd rather have a great team for 10-15 years than an almost perfect team for 5 and an average team the other 5.

 

Well, sure. But that seems like sort of an unfair scenario you've set up. There's no guarantee that hanging onto prospects, rather than trading them, will make a team "great" for 10-15 years.

 

There's no guarantee that the Phillies will even win one world series either from these moves. It is playing the percentages.