Is Castro destined to always be a SS?

[Backtobanks]

id like to see him pack on some more pounds and play 3B. i believe he will eventually be a 20 HR guy and i dont see his range staying good enough to remain at SS if he continues to fill out.

 

20 HR production at 3B is below average, while 20 HR production at SS is great.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

20 HRs from third isn't below average.

[tfarks]

I don't buy that Castro is gonna get too big to play SS. It's not like he has a huge frame - he's 6'0". You can't just pack on pounds and equate it to power.

 

If Hanley Ramirez can stick at SS at 6'3" 230 then Castro shouldn't have a problem. Castro at SS should just not be tampered with.

 

Edit - What the hell is up with Hanley btw? .593 OPS?

[dew1679666265]

id like to see him pack on some more pounds and play 3B. i believe he will eventually be a 20 HR guy and i dont see his range staying good enough to remain at SS if he continues to fill out.

 

Generally the players who eventually have to move off SS due to lack of range after adding weight already have questionable range to begin with. Starlin has issues defensively, but range has nothing to do with that - he's got terrific range. His issues come from mechanical mistakes and consistency, both which should improve as he gets more experience at SS.

 

And if he can add the type of power you're talking about, he'd be incredibly valuable at SS. I just don't see why you'd think his range would drop from terrific to awful (which it'd need to be for him to move off SS) unless he's adding way more weight than his frame can handle.

[9YRPLAN]

i havent seen the numbers...whats his range look like statistically? i think he already looks much bigger and somewhat slower than last year. people can really put on mass quickly (good and bad) from ages 20-24 so i guess we will see what happens.

 

people seem to be reasonably high on lemahieu but i suspect that starlins power potential is much higher than his.

[dew1679666265]

i havent seen the numbers...whats his range look like statistically? i think he already looks much bigger and somewhat slower than last year. people can really put on mass quickly (good and bad) from ages 20-24 so i guess we will see what happens.

 

people seem to be reasonably high on lemahieu but i suspect that starlins power potential is much higher than his.

 

Not sure how accurate range factor is, but Starlin's RF/9 has improved from 4.33 to 4.45 from last year to this year and his RF/G improved from 4.20 in 2010 to 4.34 in 2011.

 

As for weight, he's already at 6', 190 right now, so I don't see much room for adding "good" weight. He could get fat, but obviously that's something you don't want to happen. LeMahieu only weighs 185 right now, but is listed at 6'4, meaning he has substantially more room for power growth than Starlin does.

[TruffleShuffle]

bat speed and swing plane have a lot to do with power... muscle or weight really aren't the only factors.

[dew1679666265]

bat speed and swing plane have a lot to do with power... muscle or weight really aren't the only factors.

 

True. I was focusing on the weight gain since 9YRPLAN was using it as a reason why Starlin would both increase his power numbers and have to move off SS. I took his post not so much as an argument that Starlin will gain power, but that he'll gain weight and the effects of that would be increased power and significantly decreased range.

[Splendid Splinter]

Well Elvis Andrus had his 14th error tonight... I'm thinking he should be moved from SS eventually as well.. HAHAHAHAHA

 

 

Also to 9YRPLAN... From the games I've been watching (only on WGN or like ESPN/FOX cuz I live in Arkansas), I think Castro is improving. It's not by a lot or anything, but he is getting better.

 

In Fansgraph, he's on same pace for balls in zone as last year while he's on pace to have more total plays made this year. He isn't getting as many plays out of the zone or double plays this year compared to last year. His UZR is worse this year than last year by a bit (-5.9 to -2.1). The only thing... there's really no good defensive stats out there yet to really rely.

 

Also in Fansgraph... he made 27 errors in 1073.2 innings last year (16 were fielding and 11 were throwing)... this year in 614.2 innings, he has 15 errors so far with 7 fielding and 8 throwing. If Castro keep that pace for 1073.2 innings, he's up to 26 errors with 12 fielding and 14 throwing.

[davearm2]

I don't buy that Castro is gonna get too big to play SS. It's not like he has a huge frame - he's 6'0". You can't just pack on pounds and equate it to power.

 

If Hanley Ramirez can stick at SS at 6'3" 230 then Castro shouldn't have a problem. Castro at SS should just not be tampered with.

 

Edit - What the hell is up with Hanley btw? .593 OPS?

Hanley Ramirez is probably not the best example to choose for this argument.

 

IIRC he's pretty widely regarded as a poor-to-terrible defensive SS.

[apete6]

I just want to point out that Castro is unbelievable. Even all of the Sox fans admit it, which is nearly unprecedented. The last Cub I was this excited about was Prior. Let's hope this works out better.

[tfarks]

I don't buy that Castro is gonna get too big to play SS. It's not like he has a huge frame - he's 6'0". You can't just pack on pounds and equate it to power.

 

If Hanley Ramirez can stick at SS at 6'3" 230 then Castro shouldn't have a problem. Castro at SS should just not be tampered with.

 

Edit - What the hell is up with Hanley btw? .593 OPS?

Hanley Ramirez is probably not the best example to choose for this argument.

 

IIRC he's pretty widely regarded as a poor-to-terrible defensive SS.

 

That's why I chose him.

[sneakypower]

since we're going to be a bad team for the immediate future anyway i'm more than fine leaving him at SS to see if he improves, but early returns are moderately troubling

 

looking at RZR:

for the past two seasons, amongst the 23 qualifying SS, he's the 3rd worst at making plays in his zone (more or less "routine" plays) but he's in the top third for % of his plays made out of zone, which would suggest he's got poor instincts and good athleticism. that's already the perception about him, but the fielding data also backs that up

 

UZR considers him a -6 SS to this point, which is actually fairly promising, all things considered, but TotalZone paints the grimmest picture, labeling Castro a -17 fielder thus far

 

if you believe the latter is the more reliable of the two metrics, then there's little chance he can stay at short long-term without being a considerable detriment

[Guest]

I would think his difficulties in routine plays is more a matter of focus than a matter of instincts. Maybe that's semantics though.

[davearm2]

I don't buy that Castro is gonna get too big to play SS. It's not like he has a huge frame - he's 6'0". You can't just pack on pounds and equate it to power.

 

If Hanley Ramirez can stick at SS at 6'3" 230 then Castro shouldn't have a problem. Castro at SS should just not be tampered with.

 

Edit - What the hell is up with Hanley btw? .593 OPS?

Hanley Ramirez is probably not the best example to choose for this argument.

 

IIRC he's pretty widely regarded as a poor-to-terrible defensive SS.

 

That's why I chose him.

You chose a SS that probably shouldn't be playing SS to prove the point that Castro should stay at SS?

 

I'm confused.

[tfarks]

I don't buy that Castro is gonna get too big to play SS. It's not like he has a huge frame - he's 6'0". You can't just pack on pounds and equate it to power.

 

If Hanley Ramirez can stick at SS at 6'3" 230 then Castro shouldn't have a problem. Castro at SS should just not be tampered with.

 

Edit - What the hell is up with Hanley btw? .593 OPS?

Hanley Ramirez is probably not the best example to choose for this argument.

 

IIRC he's pretty widely regarded as a poor-to-terrible defensive SS.

 

That's why I chose him.

You chose a SS that probably shouldn't be playing SS to prove the point that Castro should stay at SS?

 

I'm confused.

 

It's not that difficult. Hanley is still a very valuable player because of his offense at SS, in spite of his terrible defense. Castro won't have that kind of offensive value - but he's still above average. He has a smaller frame and better range, his athleticism and range is fantastic. Castro's defense will be more valuable, especially when he improves on routine plays - which comes with experience and improved footwork. On top of that, Castro will certainly improve in both areas, he's only 21 years old. Isn't he the youngest player in the majors still? You can have your flaws but the premium on the position gives you leeway for them. If Castro doesn't improve over the next couple years you make your move, I don't see that happening though.

[9YRPLAN]

i agree he is getting better and i also agree with the comments about his footwork and fundamentals. they are correctable.

 

i know starlin is listed at 6-0 190 but he looks a little taller than that to me, and he definitely put on some pounds since last summer. i have no idea what his workout regimen is like so hopefully it is good weight but he seems decidedly slower on the basepaths to me.

 

DJ has shown zero power in the minors thus far. not that starlin was dropping bombs with regularity, but moreso than DJ.

 

i think DJ looks very fluid in the field which is typically a good sign of athleticism.

 

again, these are my unprofessional observations.

[Rob]

Castro has all the physical tools to stay at SS. His problems are mostly from footwork and decision making... two issues which I do not see as getting better as a result of moving to 3B. The extra time at 2B might be of some use if he doesn't figure it out in a few years though. But I really do mean a few years... unless he gets significantly worse in a hurry, I don't want to see Castro moving off SS before he's 24-25.

[tfarks]

i know starlin is listed at 6-0 190 but he looks a little taller than that to me, and he definitely put on some pounds since last summer. i have no idea what his workout regimen is like so hopefully it is good weight but he seems decidedly slower on the basepaths to me.

 

I'm definitely not seeing the same thing you are. 10/10 SB is pretty solid.

[CubColtPacer]

i know starlin is listed at 6-0 190 but he looks a little taller than that to me, and he definitely put on some pounds since last summer. i have no idea what his workout regimen is like so hopefully it is good weight but he seems decidedly slower on the basepaths to me.

 

I'm definitely not seeing the same thing you are. 10/10 SB is pretty solid.

 

I have noticed the same thing that 9YR has when Castro runs to 1st especially on a few of his DP balls. There have been balls that I expect a middle IF to beat out the relay throw that he has been thrown out easily on. But his play in the field and his SB numbers don't suggest he's slow, so I don't know if it's just perception.

[Darkside]

A lot of his errors have been throwing errors. Whether or not he improves his fielding is one thing, but if he simply gets better at knowing when to put it in his pocket, you probably halve the number of E's he puts up. That certainly will come with age and experience.

 

I have a feeling he'll be fine. He's already getting to balls that would be rolling past Theriot.

[Scotti]

I would think his difficulties in routine plays is more a matter of focus than a matter of instincts.

 

With a player that young (and talented) the difficulties are with his fine motor skills which are a result of less practice (older players generally = more practice = more defined neural pathways). If this theory is true then you would, observationally, see Great! plays followed by What The Heck? plays. This is what we see with Castro. He is making great plays and muffing some "easy" ones (as well as attempting some not so easy ones that more practiced SS would not attempt). Malcom Gladwell wrote about neural pathways in Outliers.

 

The actual issue with Castro's defense is will he learn to position hitters better? All the quickness in the world (and SS is about quickness more so than speed) will not help you if you are playing a pull hitter up the middle. Interestingly, it took Ozzie Smith two years to learn better possitioning (more plays per 9 IN) while his fielding percentage was consistantly in the .960-.970 range throughout his MLB career (his last year in the minors, as a 22 y/o, it was .943).

 

So, IMO, this is NOT about focus but, rather, about practice, practice, practice. Practicing at game speed (not casually) will make playing in games second nature (because of the more defined neural pathways). This means a player will NOT need to focus during games but, rather, just let his instincts take over. This is why SS with more playing time make fewer errors. They have done it more in practice. I'm not really concerned on this point (and I believe that possitioning will come as well).