2012 Draft Discussion

[Splendid Splinter]

Craig, Fried at 6 isn't a reach. He's projectable, has solid velo and conceivably could turn into a future ace. He's almost definitely a top 10 guy. I've kind of gotten to the point I'd like to see us take him just because our system hasn't had a bigtime lefty in quite a while.

 

Plus... Is it a good possiblity that Cubs could get him under slot? It'll make him extremely attractive then. Just wondering. Because it would be great he'll come under slot so Cubs could go a little over slot somewhere along the way (perhaps on both supplemental picks?)

[Guest]

I think that's the part that's being undersold here. We all can have our preferences, but I think most of us can agree that there isn't a ton of differentiation between the options at 6. If you can get one of them at under slot though, then you can leverage that into getting a guy or guys with a supplemental pick that is a lot better than the slot alternatives.

[davell]

ABTY just said we are NOT one of the teams that flagged Zimmer and he's probably our odds on favorite to be the pick at 6. Fun to speculate anyway.

[craig]

I think that's the part that's being undersold here. We all can have our preferences, but I think most of us can agree that there isn't a ton of differentiation between the options at 6. If you can get one of them at under slot though, then you can leverage that into getting a guy or guys with a supplemental pick that is a lot better than the slot alternatives.

 

Yes. Under the new deal, there are only seven slots at $3 or more, and only ten more at $2. If you can offer a kid over a million, he's got to be very, very confident to assume that 3 years later he's going to be one of the top 17 picks who makes $2+. It may actually be easier to get some kids at modest superslot than was true in past.

 

And, there may be less competition. Just like we're scared to superslot on our first pick and kill the rest of our draft, that's probably true also of other teams. So HS kids who were through to belong in the 15-20 range but get skipped there for scouting or signability reasons, perhaps nobody in the 20's or 30's will want to pay them either. It's also true that all of the supplemental teams will have already drafted. Those who expect to overpay on their first pick may be planning on underslotting on their supplemental pick, so perhaps some guys who'd be fine just with 30-35 slot will slide to us.

 

So having some extra funds when many teams won't or will be scared to risk any, could give us some opportunity.

[craig]

ABTY just said we are NOT one of the teams that flagged Zimmer and he's probably our odds on favorite to be the pick at 6. Fun to speculate anyway.

 

Thanks. That's important and interesting. Not surprising, since I think I read he's coming to Wrigley for an interview this weekend. (maybe from same poster?)

[Guest]

I wonder what teams are flagging Zimmer for.

[craig]

Another note on HS signability. With the spending caps, it's a given that a LOT more HS players will choose for college. At least, that's the expectation. But, colleges won't actually have any more scholarships to offer. Is it possible that there will be a lot of HS kids who in past could choose between pro money and half- or full-scholarship at a big school, who will now be getting only a quarter- or half-scholarship? And, down the road, if there are tons more kids going to college, might that also make it a lot harder for a HS kid to start as a college freshman, or to become a weekend starter as a pitcher? There may be some supply-and-demand issues which will make big-conference colleges less attractive for a lot of kids.

 

Could be a huge boon for junior college programs. But it may also make the dollar differential between pros and college not quite as hard to win for a pro team.

[Guest]

I like reading that Zimmer didn't pitch much in high school.

[CyHawk_Cub]

I wonder what teams are flagging Zimmer for.

 

My (unsubstantiated) guess is weed.

[craig]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-2012-amateur-draft-selections/

 

Marc Hulet of Fangraphs on his valuations. Doesn't factor in price/solubility at all. Has 5 Zunino-6 Almora-7 Fried-8 Zimmer -9 Giolito

[A New Era]

I wonder what teams are flagging Zimmer for.

 

My (unsubstantiated) guess is weed.

 

What a silly thing to flag someone for. Unless there is an MLB rule that bans anyone who smoked in college or HS.

[Splendid Splinter]

I wonder what teams are flagging Zimmer for.

 

My (unsubstantiated) guess is weed.

 

What a silly thing to flag someone for. Unless there is an MLB rule that bans anyone who smoked in college or HS.

 

??? Wouldn't you be suspended if you get caught with weed in your system in a drug test under MLB policy? If so, it's not a silly thing.

[Cubswin11]

I wonder what teams are flagging Zimmer for.

 

My (unsubstantiated) guess is weed.

 

What a silly thing to flag someone for. Unless there is an MLB rule that bans anyone who smoked in college or HS.

 

??? Wouldn't you be suspended if you get caught with weed in your system in a drug test under MLB policy? If so, it's not a silly thing.

Does MLB even test for weed? Most guys that caught with it seem to be doing something else (like speeding) and then get caught with it when the police are searching them/car and it seems they aren't getting caught by random drug tests by MLB.

[Guest]

Does anyone if The Score archives their broadcasts? Jim Callis was on at 7 am CT to talk about the Cubs draft.

 

ETA: They do - link

[pitchcs]

I wonder what teams are flagging Zimmer for.

 

My (unsubstantiated) guess is weed.

 

What a silly thing to flag someone for. Unless there is an MLB rule that bans anyone who smoked in college or HS.

 

??? Wouldn't you be suspended if you get caught with weed in your system in a drug test under MLB policy? If so, it's not a silly thing.

 

 

No, it's a ridiculously silly thing because that's what 17-20 year olds do. They drink, they experiment with drugs, they want to sleep with hot chicks, etc. As long as they can handle themselves like normal humans, it really shouldn't be an issue.

 

"Oh ARod, there's a little weed in your system, sorry we aren't going to draft you #1." Nope, don't think that's the way it's working.

[Guest]

Does anyone if The Score archives their broadcasts? Jim Callis was on at 7 am CT to talk about the Cubs draft.

 

ETA: They do - link

I'm onsite at a customer today. Can anyone summarize?

[Splendid Splinter]

I wonder what teams are flagging Zimmer for.

 

My (unsubstantiated) guess is weed.

 

What a silly thing to flag someone for. Unless there is an MLB rule that bans anyone who smoked in college or HS.

 

??? Wouldn't you be suspended if you get caught with weed in your system in a drug test under MLB policy? If so, it's not a silly thing.

 

 

No, it's a ridiculously silly thing because that's what 17-20 year olds do. They drink, they experiment with drugs, they want to sleep with hot chicks, etc. As long as they can handle themselves like normal humans, it really shouldn't be an issue.

 

"Oh ARod, there's a little weed in your system, sorry we aren't going to draft you #1." Nope, don't think that's the way it's working.

 

Read my quote again... MLB do test for weed and you do get a suspension on their first positive test. I checked after my first post. I meant it more as "Ok... So you did weed in high school/college. BIG DEAL. But... will he stop or not when we sign him? Is he a pothead or did he just experiment a few times..." I could see a case where a team talked to some friends or scouts and they said that he likes weed a lot and probably will continue to do it. Then he runs a greater risk of testing positive in a drug test which could result in a suspension. So no... it's not a silly thing IMO to flag him (only if he's seriously a pothead and will keep smoking weed). It can also lead to other drugs as well.

 

Now... would it stop me from drafting someone if i was a GM and knew that he smoked weed in high school/college? No, but I wanna be assured that it won't a big issue down the road.

 

A-Rod example is stupid. There was no drug testing back then. Bryce Harper, on the other hand, would work. I still would draft him tho.

Edited June 1, 2012 by Splendid Splinter

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Explains new system slotting system and how it prevents teams from over- or under-spending in the draft.

 

Predicts that after the third round, you'll have very few HS players go. Just JC and college.

 

Overall draft is a little below average. No obvious top-tier talent, okay depth.

 

Cubs are really hoping for a couple of guys who may or may not fall to them, didn't specify.

 

Then most of the time was spent talking about the White Sox. White Sox position prospects are hands-down the worst in baseball. Thinks they may find a way to be cheap even with the new rules.

[davell]

Here's my guess at a 10 round mock for us:

 

6) Fried- Tall, hard throwing projectable lefties are hard to find, and he signs for a tad underslot at 2.800, saving us 450,000 for later on.

 

43) Matt Smoral Tall, hard throwing projectable lefties are hard to find and we're shocked he's still there. injury and strong commitment to UNC have him on the board and we sign him for 1.850. About 654,000 over slot.

 

56) Trey Williams 3B Poor play his senior season kept him on the board this long, but he's a potential impact bat that signs for slot at 911,700

 

67) Paul Blackburn Tall righty who knows how to pitch already and has projection. Probably more refined than either Fried or Smoral, just not quite as much upside. Signs for slot at 769,600

 

101) Chris Beck Preseason top 10 guy, fell off bigtime in velocity and struggled with his arm slot. Is this him or is he the guy in the Cape League last year? We take the shot and sign him at slot for 471,900.

 

134) Preston Tucker- Need a senior sign to help out with Smoral's overslot deal, Tucker has fallen off some, but represents solid value and we can sign him for 243,200. 100k under the slot value.

 

164) Taylor Dugas- Redraft of a heady guy, also a senior, likely to make it to the bigs in some fashion, even if he's not more than a 4th OFer type. Again, we get him at 157,000, 100k underslot.

 

194) Hudson Randall- Doesn't fit in with the power arms obviously, but he certainly knows how to pitch and should move quickly, even if he tops out in AAA. My guess is he finds his way into the majors somehow. Signs for slot at 192,500 and forgoes his senior season.

 

224) Cody Poteet- Take a shot at one more overslot guy. Poteet's not a tall guy, throws low 90's, but drops due to lack of projection, even though he knows how to pitch. Has had Oswalt, Hudson comps from a few. We sign him for 600,000. About 451,400 overslot, or the equivalent of the penalty money we have to play with.

 

244) Drew Verhagen- Added some velo this season, not extremely projectable, but again, is a pitcher, not a thrower. A lot of guys out there like him, he may have the slightly better pedigree and we get him for slot at 138,800

 

274) Austin Nola- Like Randall, a guy that could come back for his senior season possibly. Should move quick at any rate, and we get him for slot at 129,600.

 

304) Stefan Sabol- Was a top rated prospect a few seasons ago, but attitude and poor play landed him at a JUCO. Need a C at some point probably, so we take the shot and sign him for slot at 125,000.

 

I emphasized pitching obviously, don't like the position players we wound up with for the most part honestly. Love the HS arms we got, maybe it's not Smoral, but one of the higher ranked arms WILL be there at 43 and my guess is we take him. I figure we're taking Fried in this case, strictly because he goes underslot a bit more than Almora, and we take him over Zimmer, on talent, from our view.

[Guest]

Explains new system slotting system and how it prevents teams from over- or under-spending in the draft.

 

Predicts that after the third round, you'll have very few HS players go. Just JC and college.

 

Overall draft is a little below average. No obvious top-tier talent, okay depth.

 

Cubs are really hoping for a couple of guys who may or may not fall to them, didn't specify.

 

Then most of the time was spent talking about the White Sox. White Sox position prospects are hands-down the worst in baseball. Thinks they may find a way to be cheap even with the new rules.

Thanks. No new insight, then.

[craig]

Explains new system slotting system etc...

 

Yes. He had nothing to say in terms of specific targets, or about the Cubs. Other than the obvious that they can't overspend like last year, and that with a chance to get the #1 pick next year, no way they're going to break the limit this year.

 

The one comment I'd heard but forgotten was that the draft slots are NOT comparable to what mlb used to specify. They are significantly higher, perhaps more guided by what actual spending has been like recently. (Definitely true; this year they slot for $2 through like #17, and for $1 or more through the first 50 picks. No way that they were "recommended" that high last year....) Callis said that a lot of teams think they're actually too high for the talent available this year, that last year might have been one of the greatest classes ever and teams spent for that.

 

He suggested that maybe a guy at #6 should and would really sign for $2.5, then that would give a bunch of discretionary cash for later picks. I'm so accustomed to "slot" being the floor, that the concept that "slot" may be too high and a responsible team really might sign a good-value for below slot is hard to wrap my mind around.

 

He didn't think the reduction in HS signings would be as dramatic as some have suggested. He kind of thought that kids who want to play want to play, and if HSer who could get $1.2 last year now will have to settle for $750, that many/most will do that. I suspect there's much to that. Dunston signed for what, $1.2 last summer? Would he have really gone to Vandy this year if a a team picked him in the 2nd round but had to stick to slot and it was $800? If Vogelbach had been as sandwich pick this summer and offered $1.1 slot, would he have really gone to college? (Given that he's a power guy who hasn't hit HR's even in Mesa, he's probably very fortunate that he took the money....)

[Guest]

Goldstein with a quick Top 10 mock. It's free: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17221

 

1. Buxton

2. Appel

3. Correa

4. Gausman

5. Zimmer

6. Chicago Cubs: Mike Zunino, C, Florida

The Cubs are all over the board with interest in the college arm trio, as well as the top high school players as well. They've rarely been attached to Zunino, but an above-average every day catcher who can move quickly through the system and give the team an on-the-field leader would be tough to pass by.

7. Almora

8. Marrero

9. Hawkins

10. Fried

[Guest]

I know we've talked a lot about his high floor and how he's a "safe" but not impact pick...but can someone give me some statistical context here? What would you guys project Zunino might produce (as a reasonable expectation)...particularly early on?

[El Duderino]

8. Mike Zunino, C, Florida

Who he is: Zunino was being discussed as a possible No. 1 overall pick after a tremendous start to the season, but the conference play brought him back down to earth. His greatest strength is that he has no apparent weakness; while he lacks elite tools, he projects as a solid defensive catcher who can hit .270 to .280 with 18-20 home runs annually, and every aspect of his game plays up due to outstanding baseball intelligence.

[Guest]

8. Mike Zunino, C, Florida

Who he is: Zunino was being discussed as a possible No. 1 overall pick after a tremendous start to the season, but the conference play brought him back down to earth. His greatest strength is that he has no apparent weakness; while he lacks elite tools, he projects as a solid defensive catcher who can hit .270 to .280 with 18-20 home runs annually, and every aspect of his game plays up due to outstanding baseball intelligence.

 

Thanks. That doesn't sound bad, but it also sounds like a projection of his peak. I know he'd be a guy who would be relatively fast tracked...wonder how good he'd be right away.