Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-22-11

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores

 

Iowa lost 16-7 Box Score

 

RF T. Colvin 3/5, R, 2B (3), 3B (1), RBI, K

LF B. Snyder 2/5, 2B (10), 3 RBI, 2 K

3B M. Smith 1/4, R, 2B (10), BB, K

SS J. Mota 1/3, R, HR (2), 2 RBI, E (3, fielding)

SP R. Wells 4 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, HR, WP, 6-1 GO-FO

RP J. Stevens 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 0-1 GO-FO

 

Tennessee won 4-2 Box Score

 

CF JH Ha 1/4, R, 2B (2)

3B DJ LeMahieu 3/4, R, RBI, CS (3)

2B-RF R. Flaherty 1/3, R, HR (10), 3 RBI, BB, K

1B J. Vitters 2/3

SS M. Gonzalez 1/3

SP R. Whitenack 5 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, HR, WP, 7-2 GO-FO

RP K. Rhoderick 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 1-2 GO-FO, balk

RP C. Carpenter 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, 2-0 GO-FO

RP R. Dolis 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, 3-0 GO-FO

 

Daytona won 8-4 Box Score

 

SS J. Lake 3/5, R, 3 R, 2B (10), HR (4), 2 RBI, SB (17)

3B M. Cerda 2/5, 2 R, RBI

LF E. Crawford 4/5, 2 R, 2B (9), RBI, SB (12)

DH J. Bour 2/3, 2 RBI, 2 BB

RF M. Burgess 0/3, 2 BB, K, E (1, throw), outfield assist at 2nd base

2B L. Watkins 2/4, R, SB (5)

SP J. Lorick 5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, HR, WP, E (4, throw), 7-3 GO-FO

RP R. Buchter 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 0-2 GO-FO

 

Peoria won 8-3 Box Score

 

CF M. Szczur 2/4, 2 RBI, BB, SB (11)

1B R. Jones 1/4, R, HR (7), RBI, K

C M. Gibbs 1/3, R, BB

DH R. Cuneo 1/4, R, HR (1), 2 RBI

LF KM Na 1/4, R

SS A. Alcantara 1/3, 2 R, 2B (5), K, HBP

SP A. Kirk 6+ IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, HR, 5-6 GO-FO

RP R. Lopez 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, 2-0 GO-FO

 

OVERALL: 3-1

[Guest]

Probable Starters

 

Iowa: RHP Randy Wells (rehab; at Peoria: 0-1, 2.45 ERA, 3.2 IP, 1 K, 0 BB)

Tennessee: RHP Robert Whitenack (4-0, 2.40 ERA, 30 IP, 17 K, 8 BB; Tennessee & Daytona: 7-0, 1.87 ERA, 53 IP, 42 K, 9 BB)

Daytona: LHP Jeff Lorick (2-1, 3.09 ERA, 32 IP, 20 K, 9 BB)

Peoria: LHP Austin Kirk (2-1, 1.56 ERA, 40.1 IP, 35 K, 9 BB)

[sporrer17]

Hope everything goes smoothly for Wells...we could really use him back to solidify the back end of the rotation, especially with Garza now missing a start and no timetable for Cashner's return.

[JockJones]

Randy's getting lit up.

[Guest]

Szczur has returned. 0-2 with a walk and stolen base so far.

[toonsterwu]

Not exactly a good start for Kirk, but it isn't that bad. 6 ip, 7 h (1 solo HR), 1 bb, 3 R (1 unearned), 6 K's. 5/7 GO/FO. Started the 7th and Gonzalez le the inherited runner score.

[CubsWin]

Szczur has returned. 0-2 with a walk and stolen base so far.

Finished the day 2-4, with a walk and a SB, his 11th against 1 CS. He's batting .327 with an OBP over .400.

[JockJones]

Szczur has returned. 0-2 with a walk and stolen base so far.

 

Edit: Damn you CubsWin.

[CubsWin]

LeMaheiu 3-for-4 today. Now batting .367.

[CubsWin]

Szczur has returned. 0-2 with a walk and stolen base so far.

 

Edit: Damn you CubsWin.

Snooze you looze. :P

[CubsWin]

Junior Lake has stolen his 17th base. Did he get remarkably faster this off season or were the Cubs just keeping him on a leash because his previous high for stolen bases was 13 and we're not even out of May yet.

[Tryptamine]

Junior Lake has stolen his 17th base. Did he get remarkably faster this off season or were the Cubs just keeping him on a leash because his previous high for stolen bases was 13 and we're not even out of May yet.

 

 

I thought you were either kidding or it was a typo. I have no idea how I didn't notice that.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Aside from the Ks to walks, Junior Lake seems to be getting really good, at least offensively. Doesnt he have some serious defensive issues though? Any chance that they convert him to something else, as Castro will likely be holding down SS for many years to come?

 

And its good to see Szczur back. Any word on Jacksons return?

 

I dont know which of these guys will be stars, everyday players, journeyman, or even ever get a cup of coffee, but following guys like Lake, Flaherty, LaMahieu, Ridling, Sczur, Bour, Ha, Crawford, Cerda, and sometimes Vitters is at least a decent escape from the fact that our big league team kind of sucks.

[Illini Iceman]

Aside from the Ks to walks, Junior Lake seems to be getting really good, at least offensively. Doesnt he have some serious defensive issues though? Any chance that they convert him to something else, as Castro will likely be holding down SS for many years to come?

 

And its good to see Szczur back. Any word on Jacksons return?

 

I dont know which of these guys will be stars, everyday players, journeyman, or even ever get a cup of coffee, but following guys like Lake, Flaherty, LaMahieu, Ridling, Sczur, Bour, Ha, Crawford, Cerda, and sometimes Vitters is at least a decent escape from the fact that our big league team kind of sucks.

 

If you can't get excited about a James Russell start I don't know what's wrong with you.

[TruffleShuffle]

Aside from the Ks to walks, Junior Lake seems to be getting really good, at least offensively.

 

he's hitting for an anomalously high average that's supported by good luck on balls in play. look at previous years; he didn't hit that well for average.

[craig]

I think Truffle has a fair point. Lake is still whiffing 25% of his AB, his K/HR rate is still 43/4, and his K/BB rate is 43/6. Hard to support a consistently good average when so many AB's are K's and when the volume of HR's is too low to neutralize the K's. And 12 errors in 43 games, that's still terrible, although his XBH are starting to pull well ahead of his errors. But his error rate hasn't improved that much. They always talk about Jeter and other big-league SS's who made multiple errors in A-ball, but the good ones didn't keep doing it the way that Lake is in his 3rd round of A-ball. Plus, the reports are that attitude/hustle/attention-wise, if you watched him every day he might be worse than Soriano or Bradley.

 

But, his BABIP isn't really that ridiculous. It's .395, and obviously that's not sustainable, but it's not that crazy for a fast minor leaguer. I think there's the chance that his HR output could grow with time, and if his K/BB ratio wasn't so stinky in future, he wouldn't need as much BABIP to keep his average afloat.

 

But I'm pretty low on him. When a guy has so much trouble with both contact and errors, and is a slacker head-case, it's hard to be very confident in projecting a successful big-league future.

[CubsWin]

I think Truffle has a fair point. Lake is still whiffing 25% of his AB, his K/HR rate is still 43/4, and his K/BB rate is 43/6. Hard to support a consistently good average when so many AB's are K's and when the volume of HR's is too low to neutralize the K's. And 12 errors in 43 games, that's still terrible, although his XBH are starting to pull well ahead of his errors. But his error rate hasn't improved that much. They always talk about Jeter and other big-league SS's who made multiple errors in A-ball, but the good ones didn't keep doing it the way that Lake is in his 3rd round of A-ball. Plus, the reports are that attitude/hustle/attention-wise, if you watched him every day he might be worse than Soriano or Bradley.

 

But, his BABIP isn't really that ridiculous. It's .395, and obviously that's not sustainable, but it's not that crazy for a fast minor leaguer. I think there's the chance that his HR output could grow with time, and if his K/BB ratio wasn't so stinky in future, he wouldn't need as much BABIP to keep his average afloat.

 

But I'm pretty low on him. When a guy has so much trouble with both contact and errors, and is a slacker head-case, it's hard to be very confident in projecting a successful big-league future.

Given past performance and the fact that we are talking about a 21 year old who is still developing, I wouldn't call it an anomaly that he is hitting well. As you said, his BABIP is high, but not ridiculously so. Lake has hit .284 previously in his career and is repeating this level, so I could see him hitting a legit .290-.300. What may prove to be the anomaly by season's end is his April 20/0 K/BB ratio. In May he's struckout 23 times and walked 6. That's still way too many strikeouts, but his IsoD for the month is .051. Below average, but not nearly as terrible as his April IsoD of -.008. Given he had an IsoD last year of .069, I don't think his performance in April is indicative of how he will likely perform the rest of the season. His SLG is up. His SB are way up as are his runs scored. He's still intriguing but he's got a long way to go. Being coachable would go a long way towards getting him where he needs to/is capable of being.

[craig]

Fun with numbers:

1. Keep Lake's seasonal numbers, give him a robust .335 BABIP instead of .395. Batting average drops to .266.

2. Keep Lake's seasonal numbers, give him a better-than-mlb-average .305 BABIP instead of .395. Batting average drops to .244.

 

3. Keep Lake's May numbers, at .335 BABIP: May batting average = .263

4. Lake's May numbers, at .305 BABIP: May batting average = .252

 

Conclusions: he's living largely on a high BABIP. April was a fluke month walk-wise,

 

Batting average may be overrated, but it's central to both OBP and OPS. If the average is 40 or 60 points padded by flukish BABIP, both OBP and slugging get padded accordingly. So the OPS gets padded by at least double. (A lucky single is a base for slugging and an on-base for OBP, so essentially it gets double-counted towards OPS).

 

Thoughts:

1. Maybe he'll always be a high BABIP guy.

2. His one consistency at each stop in minors has been the very high K-rate, he K's like a slugger. The K-rate >25% has been pretty reliable.

3. Realistically, I think his offensive future is going to depend heavily on the HR's. K's, HR's, and BABIP are the input factors for batting average. Some quick numbers, assuming a fixed 25% K rate and 600 big-league AB's per year (to give the HR values context):

.305 BABIP: 5HR ->.235BA; 10HR ->.240BA 15HR ->.246BA; 20HR->.252BA; 25HR->.258BA

.335 BABIP: 5HR ->.257BA; 10HR ->.262BA 15HR ->.268BA; 20HR->.273BA; 25HR->.279BA

 

I think it will be hard for him to K at less than 25% in the majors, and a .335 BABIP in majors is rather remote. So I think you probably need Lake to really emerge as a guy. If he's a 20+ HR guy, then he should be able to hit .250 or better. A .250BA/20HR guy can make some millions, I think.

 

But if he doesn't hit HR's, I think his average is going to be problematic. And I'm not sure his attitude, clubhouse chemistry, IsoD, or middle-infield defense are going to be positive enough to overcome a low average. But some HR's raise average, OBP, slugging, OPS, and make teams a lot more patient.

 

I also think being an asset HR-guy will also be necessary position-wise. If he moves to 3B or OF, that's only OK if he hits HR's. And if he stays as an error-prone SS, a defense-problem SS is only acceptable if the guy hits a lot.

 

He's gotta hit the HR's.

[videographer]

I have never been a big supporter of Junior Lake, but I will make a couple of arguments in his favor. First, this could be his breakout year. He just turned 21 years old, he is now age appropriate for his league (if not a little young) and his history of being a poor Dominican with authority issues that doesn't take instruction well, could have clouded his talent. All players that have a ML future have a breakout year. Some start later than others (I am hoping Ryan Flaherty is finally having his year). So far, Lake is showing stats that indicate his potential, .300 avg./4HR in the FSL/17SB through late May. If Lake can sustain this breakout through the end of the season, it will be a good sign. A breakout year after early struggles suggests a player is learning his craft instead of using his raw talents to get by.

 

Second, Lake is physically gifted, tall, athletic with a very strong arm. His prospect history was parallel to Starlin Castro when they came out of the DSL. This means that the Cubs are still high on his ability. He will continue to get preference over other players on position play, daily workload and finding a place in the order where he can succeed. An example of this: he is blocking the development of Logan Watkins as SS. I have read from several sources that Watkins best position is SS. He may not have the physical talents of Lake, but plays a better SS. Often, a player will struggle when he doesn't play his natural position and I think that is retarding Watkins' development at this time.

 

Lake seems to have found success at the top of the order. This reminds me of Soriano. He can concentrate on hitting fastballs and not worry about situational hitting. I suspect he has aggressive behavior that complements a lead-off hitter that gets on base to steal second. The Cubs might be pushing that aggression to find his talent. There is an old axiom that states the best way to develop a player is to put him into the best position to succeed.

 

I don't know what will ultimately become of Junior Lake. His background is a strike against his development. Defiant players eventually wear out their welcomes. I still want him to succeed and hope this year is a turning point. However, if he teases for too long, he will block others from fulfilling their talent. And that is something that can hinder an organization - misjudging talent.

[javy knows my name]

Junior Lake is Dominican?! What in the Khalil Greene is going on here?!

[craig]

...First, this could be his breakout year. ..... So far, Lake is showing stats that indicate his potential, .300 avg./4HR in the FSL/17SB through late May. If Lake can sustain this breakout through the end of the season, it will be a good sign.

 

Yes. I think Truffle's point makes me wonder, though. .300/4HR looks nice. But if the .300 is largely BABIP, how sustainable will it be? If he hits .273 the rest of the way, with 2-3 HR per month, will that qualify as real breakout? I hope he can hit .300 with power the rest of the way. I still think relying on a .395 BABIP will be hard, and if he does sustain .300 average, it will probably mean that his HR-rate is going up and/or his K-rate is going down, so that he no longer needs to depend on BABIP-ing near .400 to hit .300.

 

...Second, Lake is physically gifted, tall, athletic with a very strong arm. ....

 

Indeed. I think that contributes to his chance to his a useful number of HR's as a position player, or to become an athletic power pitcher.

 

....Lake seems to have found success at the top of the order. This reminds me of Soriano. ...

 

The Soriano comp may be apt. Two thoughts:

1. Soriano was a megaprospect as a minor-league SS with speed, rocket, athleticism, and power. But his story is a reminder that a rocket arm and athleticism do not guarantee defensive aptitude at SS even with experience. Nor guarantee that switching from SS to 2B or 3B will result in defensive aptitute, either.

 

2. Soriano's offensive value and stats are heavily dependent on hitting HR's. The same is likely for Lake. But if Lake can get even close to maturing into Soriano's HR output, he's going to play in the majors.

 

I hope he's breaking out permanently, or that leadoff has triggered some breakthrough for him. Will be interesting to track with time whether his recent success at the top is just a BABIP fluke.

 

...There is an old axiom that states the best way to develop a player is to put him into the best position to succeed.. ....

 

That's a good approach. One finesse point, I think, is that we're trying to develop players for major-league function. If batting leadoff and playing SS is the best way for Lake to develop into a useful major leaguer, leave him there. Certainly his development should take precedence over the interests of some fringe player like Watkins. But if Lake plays for the Cubs in the majors, it probably won't be at SS or as a leadoff hitter. (Since if he hits enough HR's to have a decent average, he'll probably not be hitting leadoff...) So at some point, as with Vitters and Lemahieu and Flaherty, I assume they'll start diversifying him position-wise.

 

.. suspect he has aggressive behavior ..Defiant players eventually wear out their welcomes. ...

 

Certainly it sounds like he's got some attitude and coachability issues. I don't think problems with running out balls, keeping track of outs, or keeping track of the ball or of outfielders are defiance-related, though. And they almost sound more lazy/slacker/passive than "aggressive" in nature.

 

It will be interesting to see how his career goes. I admit I'm not at all concerned about him blocking people, though, at least not for a while. And I think that if he gets far enough to be in AA, they'll start to bop him around positionally.

 

I just hope he can progressively keep improving his HR output, which I think is essential to his future as a useful hitter. Or else that they switch him to pitcher sooner rather than later.

[bannor10]

So, is the Vitters 3rd base experiment over? or is his arm sore...?

[Guest]

Defensively, it might be wise to plug Lake at third so Cerda can finally play second full time and Watkins can move over to short.

 

Regarding his power, don't forget that Lake is playing in what has been the best pitcher's league throughout the minors for at least a half decade.

 

Regarding his ability to take on coaching, Scotti has said a few times that Lake made a change in his batting stance that allowed him to see pitches better. While his plate discipline in April was awful, there is still hope that this change might continue to manifest himself throughout the season (and that that change might have been part of the reason his numbers improved drastically in the second half).

[Guest]

So, is the Vitters 3rd base experiment over? or is his arm sore...?

 

He was at 3B two games ago (Friday's game; he had Saturday off). With Spencer, Ridling, Flaherty and LeMahieu around, there are too many players and not enough IF spots. They all move around.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So, is the Vitters 3rd base experiment over? or is his arm sore...?

 

He was at 3B two games ago (Friday's game; he had Saturday off). With Spencer, Ridling, Flaherty and LeMahieu around, there are too many players and not enough IF spots. They all move around.

 

Yeah, they seem to move these guys all over the field. The wise thing to do might be to make some of the I Cubs go away, and send Flaherty, Ridling, or Spencer up. Would anybody really miss Matt Camp, Bobby Scales, or Scott Moore? If they want to keep these guys around for one reason or another, more power to them, but at this point, theyre holding back guys with actual potential. I think that Flaherty, Ridling, and Spencer are easily ready for the next step. Id keep LeMahieu in AA for a bit due to his age.

 

Brian LaHair, Brad Snyder, and some of those guys might want to try their hand in Japan. They seem to love those 1 dimensional sluggers.

 

OT: Is Japan even having a season this year? If so, anyone know how Micah Hoffpauirs doing?