Sabermetrics: Prepare to be destroyed

[Formerly Snayke]

I seen this on Neyer's blog:

 

Blockbuster Baseball Book Released, Authors Available For Interviews

This new book promises to create shock waves in the baseball world by exposing the myths perpetrated by the bestselling book Moneyball and the statistics-driven philosophy of baseball that it described.

 

A new book, just released by McFarland and Company, promises to create shock waves in the baseball world. The Beauty of Short Hops: How Chance and Circumstance Confound the Moneyball Approach to Baseball exposes the myths perpetrated by the bestselling book Moneyball and the philosophy of baseball that it described. Moneyball celebrated and accelerated the statistics-obsessed revolution in understanding baseball started by Bill James. Today, major league front offices are increasingly dominated by people who believe in this approach (often referred to as “sabermetrics”).

 

The Beauty of Short Hops demonstrates that the Moneyball approach is doubly doomed. First, it fails on its own terms: it cannot make baseball a predictable game wholly understandable in numerical terms. Indeed, the teams which use this approach have not fared well. Second, the Moneyball approach blocks out what is most compelling about the sport – its relentless capacity to surprise. The authors watched all 162 Red Sox games in 2009, and catalog the crazy events (such as a game turning on a ball striking a pigeon in the outfield) that enrich baseball and defeat the best-laid plans of sabermetricians.

 

Former baseball commissioner Fay Vincent calls The Beauty of Short Hops “a welcome book for those of us who have long questioned the focus on statistics in baseball. . . . Messrs Hirsch take apart the Bill James-Moneyball myths.” Library Journal deems the book “highly recommended to both fans and opponents of sabermetrics.”

 

And more:

 

Synopsis

 

The Beauty of Short Hops addresses the hijacking of baseball by sabermetrics, the approach to baseball made famous by Michael Lewis’s best-selling book, Moneyball. The statistics-centered approach championed by Lewis (and Bill James) has infiltrated the sport and now guides everything from player acquisition to game strategy. The authors acknowledge some merit to the Moneyball approach but, drawing on tales from baseball’s rich history, also identify major flaws.

 

The Beauty of Short Hops argues that excessive attention to statistics sucks the life out of the sport, obscuring the great, odd, and spontaneous occurrences that make baseball compelling. The book’s far-ranging material will captivate the casual fan and baseball junkie alike. Did you know that Roger Maris, in the record-breaking season when he slugged 61 home runs, received zero intentional walks? The authors explain why this curious datum helps expose the shortcomings of the Moneyball approach. The book illuminates why Rickey Henderson’s base stealing was underrated and Willie Mays’ famous World Series catch overrated, why Billy Beane’s A’s have flopped and the Minnesota Twins soared, why Babe Ruth’s failed stolen base attempt to end the 1926 World Series may actually have been a shrewd play, and includes much, much more, such as games decided by insects and pigeons and fans.

 

If you found Moneyball either captivating or maddening, you’ll love The Beauty of Short Hops. If you have any interest in baseball, this book is sure to grab and keep your attention and help you see the sport fresh.

 

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/03/prweb5139404.htm

 

I can't wait!

[Sammy Sofa]

Holllllllllllllllllllllyyyyyy [expletive], this is going to be hilarious.

[SouthSideRyan]

Everything's random, just GM like Ed Wade

[OleMissCub]

It's massive success will be followed by the release of Vindicated: The Sequel by Joe Morgan

[MWV]

The working title was "Modern Metrics of Baseball Player Performance Do Not Account for the Erratic Flight Patterns of Pigeons and Are Therefore Useless".

[BigSlick]

ahahahah, i love how you can handwave literally everything they complain about by pointing at BABIP

[BigSlick]

Surely this nerds cant possibly believe you can play baseball on a computer? I will show them!!

 

(literally sits and watches 162 games in a row and ferociously compiles notes on napkins)

[SouthSideRyan]

The ball hit a bird! Where's your Bill James now Billy??

[Tryptamine]

Wow, someone really should have sat the author down and simply explained that sabermetrics predict the most likely outcome, not the definite outcome. Of course there is no way to factor in extremely obscure situations like a ball hitting a bird. If someone had done this the author probably could have saved a few months of his life.

[Tryptamine]

By the way, I refuse to read this book simply because of the damage my forehead would take from slamming it on the desk after I read the inevitable grit comment.

[imb]

By the end of its life, I was really tired of FJM.

 

But they need to come back and take this book apart, MST3K style.

[Guest]

ahahahah, i love how you can handwave literally everything they complain about by pointing at BABIP

 

This one time, I flipped a coin 10 times and it landed on heads 8 times.

 

SUCK ON THAT, PROBABILITY.

[Tarver]

How many years before the average IQ in this country is <50?

[Sammy Sofa]

Surely this nerds cant possibly believe you can play baseball on a computer? I will show them!!

 

(literally sits and watches 162 games in a row and ferociously compiles notes on napkins)

 

I love how the release proudly proclaims that he watched ALL 162 games of the Red Sox' 2009 season. Wow, ALL OF THEM?!?

[javy knows my name]

While this book promises to be spectacularly wrong, it will probably be really popular just the same. I hope it ends up only a minor annoyance and doesn't become pervasive in baseball media. We don't to add "legitimacy" to the theories of all the old-timey blowhards.

[daske17]

Somewhere Buzz Bissinger is busy writing the foreward, afterward, glowing review and another book on just how awesome this book is. And how the Internet sucks.

[SouthSideRyan]

Somewhere Buzz Bissinger is busy writing the foreward, afterward, glowing review and another book on just how awesome this book is. And how the Internet sucks.

 

But how will he find time to drop F bombs every 3 words on twitter while he picks fights with anyone who'll listen?

[mhuber92211]

how silly of me to think that a national author knows more about this then a bunch of internet message board know it alls. The reaction here is ridiculous. I suspect the "NSBB debunking of all things" book to be released with great fanfare later this summer.

 

Perhaps reading something with an Slightly open mind might be better than simply making fun of something without even knowing anything about it. Its ridiculous to completely discredit something without even reading it.

[Sammy Sofa]

Shut up, Sheldon.

[SouthSideRyan]

Anyone who writes a book on a topic is automatically more knowledgable than somebody who hasn't.

[Guest]

Perhaps reading something with an Slightly open mind might be better than simply making fun of something without even knowing anything about it. Its ridiculous to completely discredit something without even reading it.

 

This message should probably be relayed to the authors of The Beauty of Short Hops.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

how silly of me to think that a national author knows more about this then a bunch of internet message board know it alls. The reaction here is ridiculous. I suspect the "NSBB debunking of all things" book to be released with great fanfare later this summer.

A national author? What else has he written that makes you confident he knows what he's talking about? Idiots get book deals every day.

[Sammy Sofa]

But if it was a regional author he would have been fair game. And a local author? Christ knows how they can even feed themselves.

[mhuber92211]

But if it was a regional author he would have been fair game. And a local author? Christ knows how they can even feed themselves.

 

Hopefully someone stops feeding you.

 

I guess I should have expected as such from this board. Someone disagrees, calls you on your stupidity and the name calling ensues. Clearly missing the point as usual but masking it with some supposed "witty" reply that makes no sense.

 

Thank you for adding to the examples in this thread of what is wrong with this community of bullies and jerks

[mhuber92211]

Perhaps reading something with an Slightly open mind might be better than simply making fun of something without even knowing anything about it. Its ridiculous to completely discredit something without even reading it.

 

This message should probably be relayed to the authors of The Beauty of Short Hops.

 

Have you even read the book? how do you know what the conclusions are based on? Perhaps you should read the book before assuming you know what the authors are about.