What type of players do you want in the system?

[imb]

Bradley is 100 times the athlete that Bundy is, but to be fair, I havent seen Bundy since he was a sophomore and I only saw him hit (which was quite impressive). I first saw Bradley as a freshman and I was convinced he was a senior until I asked the PA guy. At the time they were more excited about his football skills as a QB, but we are in football country.

 

I mean, obviously I'm not a scout or anything, but even as a freshman, he passed the eye test with flying colors.

 

 

That's cool. It'd probably be a pretty cool game to go see when they pitch against each other this season. I can't imagine how many scouts would be there for that.

 

They play each other in like 2 weeks and I'm gonna try to get up to Tulsa for that.

[Splendid Splinter]

They play each other in like 2 weeks and I'm gonna try to get up to Tulsa for that.

 

 

Where at and when exactly? I'm only a hour and half away from Tulsa... I might go to that game then (if it works out for me).

[imb]

Broken Arrow and Owasso play each other every year. They play on Feb. 23 (i think) at one of the schools, and then again on a Friday in April. I can't remember which game is where.

[davell]

By the way, I think the smartest thing we can do this year, if we're on a fixed budget for this upcoming draft, (even if it's quite a bit higher than last year's budget) would be to give our 1st rounder a major league deal. That way, not only can we give him a large bonus, we can spread it out so it won't affect this year's budget nearly as much.

 

Example: Bubba Starling is sitting there at 9 for us. Instead of giving him a 4 mill bonus, give him a major league contract if it's a college player(or in this case(HS), a Zach Lee contract, which wasn't a major league deal) for 6 years and 6 mill or something like that. That way, you're getting the BPA and also saving money on this year's budget that allows you that much more to go spend on overslots, in what may be the last year it's possible to truly put a stamp on your system very quickly, if you want to spend the cash to do it.

[Scotti]

I think the Cubs should emphasize obscure Division I-AA prospects from Arkansas schools. That way the Cubs can cull the fan base via "Internet related heart attacks" so I can have an easier go at getting tickets...

 

Really, I believe they should just go BPA (with a guy like Tim Wilken you'd be crazy to tie his hands). That said, when there is a tie, always default to the pitcher. While a pitcher may be riskier to draft, they are also riskier to sign to free agent contracts and an injury there is FAR more costly. Drafting a top prospect costs $5-10 million max. That guy blows out his arm and you're out $5-10 million. CC Sabathia blows out his arm and you're out $161 million.

[Guest]

I think the Cubs should emphasize obscure Division I-AA prospects from Arkansas schools. That way the Cubs can cull the fan base via "Internet related heart attacks" so I can have an easier go at getting tickets...

 

Really, I believe they should just go BPA (with a guy like Tim Wilken you'd be crazy to tie his hands). That said, when there is a tie, always default to the pitcher. While a pitcher may be riskier to draft, they are also riskier to sign to free agent contracts and an injury there is FAR more costly. Drafting a top prospect costs $5-10 million max. That guy blows out his arm and you're out $5-10 million. CC Sabathia blows out his arm and you're out $161 million.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but most of those big contracts come with insurance of some kind.

[davell]

One of the few things I'll actually agree with Andy MacPhail on is this: I'd rather grow arms and spend on hitters in FA, than the other way around.

[Scotti]

I think the Cubs should emphasize obscure Division I-AA prospects from Arkansas schools. That way the Cubs can cull the fan base via "Internet related heart attacks" so I can have an easier go at getting tickets...

 

Really, I believe they should just go BPA (with a guy like Tim Wilken you'd be crazy to tie his hands). That said, when there is a tie, always default to the pitcher. While a pitcher may be riskier to draft, they are also riskier to sign to free agent contracts and an injury there is FAR more costly. Drafting a top prospect costs $5-10 million max. That guy blows out his arm and you're out $5-10 million. CC Sabathia blows out his arm and you're out $161 million.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but most of those big contracts come with insurance of some kind.

 

Insurers will now only insure the first three, or so, years of a pitcher's contract (and even that far from 100%). Disabling injuries to pitchers are far too prevalent, and goof-ball contracts far too large, for insurers to have any apatite for the market.

 

And it costs many times more to insure a pitcher over a hitter (adding to the disparity between, say, the 7-year 161M ($23M per) contract for CC Sabathia and the 8-year $180M ($22.5M per) contract for Teixeira. I doubt the Yankees have even an inning of Sabathia's contract insured but, if they did, it would make him much more expensive per year than Teixeira.

[Scotti]

One of the few things I'll actually agree with Andy MacPhail on is this: I'd rather grow arms and spend on hitters in FA, than the other way around.

 

The problem was when Stockstill consistently gambled on known injury risks looking to hit it big. That turns the concept upside down.

[craig]

I think Wilken's approach has been good and balanced.

1. Three of his five first rounders have been players, two pitchers, IIRC. Well, I suppose if we include Flaherty and Donaldson, the sandwich guys, then it's five of seven.

 

2. For each of the last four conventions, he's mentioned that he'd like/prefer to draft a hitter if there was a good enough one

The mild all-else-being-equal-I'd-take-a-position-guy thing may just be a response to the Cubs imbalanced system rather than a fundamental draft philosophy, I don't know. But it seems he appreciates the value of high-draft position guys.

 

3. Whatever mild or context-prompted preference that may be, he hasn't at all forced it, given that two of the five first have been pitchers.

 

4. If I look at his picks over the first three rounds with the Cubs, it's hitters 9, pitchers 5. Again, a modest but not extreme lean towards players.

 

I think his combination of being a good scout, of going BPA, and of leaning a little bit towards players without going to extreme has helped improve the system.

 

I hope he doesn't make a strong shift towards pitchers.

[Scotti]

I hope he doesn't make a strong shift towards pitchers.

 

As I said, always go BPA and never tie a great talent evaluator's hands. But, when there is a tie, go with the pitcher. You have long stated that drafting pitchers really cost more than drafting hitters because pitchers break down more frequently (leaving the drafting team holding the bag). However, the same applies to free agents and trades--those pitchers break down as well and at the MLB level it cost MUCH more. CC Sabathia is far more likely to break down and give the Yankees nothing for a good portion of his guaranteed contract than Teixeira (and, as discussed, you can't insure a deal like Sabathia's where you can insure a deal like Teixeira's).

 

Losing out on 2-3 $20M seasons from a free agent is FAR more costly than losing out on a $1-5M one-time bonus to a draftee. And, in terms of trades, losing out on a draftee due to injury (say Cashner who signed for $1.54M) cost MUCH less than losing out on a guy you trade for (say Garza). Garza will cost the Cubs $5.95M this season--that's nearly four Cashners. Before being paid a dime by the Cubs, Garza already has cost Hak-Ju Lee, Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer and Robinson Chirinos (who all cost the club bonus money or talent themselves).

 

I am not saying that teams shouldn't trade for pitching or that Garza was a bad deal (that's a different discussion). What I am saying is that the best value for your buck in the draft is pitching BECAUSE of the inherent nature for ALL pitchers to get hurt and lose seasons.

 

One thing you know about a pitching prospect is that if you have a full five-man rotation, a closer and two set up guys already in place then, with a 12-man staff, you definitely STILL have room for your pitching prospect. Part of the Cubs moving Lee was that he has less value to a team with a young, talented SS already in place (Castro). When Colvin proved he was ready in spring training last year he had to be shoehorned into the OF picture. And if Hendry's recruiting pitch of Jackson, Szczur and Colvin is to take place in that time frame you have to find a taker for Soriano in his last year. What if the Cubs sign a Big Bopper for 1B next year? That means that Vitters is 3B or trade bait for the Cubs. Again, none of that is an issue for a pitching prospect because there is always room for a guy when he is ready.

 

That said, a Scouting Director isn't publicly rated on how his system integrates with his team's goals. He is generally rated on how many dudes (and of what quality) he gets to the majors even if the team doesn't have the room to play them (too many 1B, corner OF, etc. at the same time).

 

Again, I am 100% BPA. I am a huge Tim Wilken fan. Never tie that guy's hands. But when you have a tie, draft the pitcher (and sign as many pitchers with superslot money as you can get away with).

[UK1679666180]

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2010/11/02/charles-tilson-report#more-9820

 

Here's a kid that's going to Illinois next year and is evidently going to be a tough sign, according to Callis most likely. If he drops past the 2nd round, he's a guy I wouldn't mind going overslot for.

 

They already him in their system and they traded him. Sam Fuld is not worth 1st rd. Money.

[Little Slide Rooter]

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2010/11/02/charles-tilson-report#more-9820

 

Here's a kid that's going to Illinois next year and is evidently going to be a tough sign, according to Callis most likely. If he drops past the 2nd round, he's a guy I wouldn't mind going overslot for.

 

They already him in their system and they traded him. Sam Fuld is not worth 1st rd. Money.

 

Isnt Ty Wright pretty much the same guy anyway?

[Guest]

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2010/11/02/charles-tilson-report#more-9820

 

Here's a kid that's going to Illinois next year and is evidently going to be a tough sign, according to Callis most likely. If he drops past the 2nd round, he's a guy I wouldn't mind going overslot for.

 

They already him in their system and they traded him. Sam Fuld is not worth 1st rd. Money.

 

Isnt Ty Wright pretty much the same guy anyway?

 

No. Ty Wright can't play CF.