Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[davearm2]

It's all moot anyway, he's staying in St. Louis.

 

And frankly I want nothing to do with Fielder and his basket of issues. So I hope you're wrong that the Cubs are doomed to an(other) entire decade of futility without either of those two guys.

 

It not just those guys. It's if the Cubs keep talking themselves out of guys like Dunn and Fielder and Pujols and whoever shows up. There's always going to be a good argument against sinking a ton of money into a FA superstar. If the Cubs keep listening to that side of things they're not going to be very good unless they pull of some miracle trades and/or some miracles happen in the farm system.

 

Isn't that pretty much any team, though? You have to have a solid combination of all of those things. Look at the Red Sox: yeah, they've traded for and resigned Gonzalez, signed Crawford, traded for Beckett, signed Lackey and Drew, etc... but they also have a ton of homegrown talent, including Pedroia, Youkilis, Lowrie, Ellsbury, Papelbon, Bucholz, Bard, Lester, etc... in addition to some good buy low candidates such as Salty and Ortiz. Basically, they've done everything right and the Cubs haven't and that's why they've won. Well, that and Manny and Ortiz were on the juice.

 

Oh, there definitely has to be a balance. The problem is that the Cubs really don't have anyone in their farm system that project beyond beyond solid everyday players as their ceiling now that Castro is up. Those kind of prospects can still be plenty valuable, but the Cubs also need superstar "tent-pole" players they can build around.

Curious if you would take ARod (and his contract) off of the Yankees' hands for free right now.

[imb]

Except that's how you make money. And around we go.

 

So if the Cubs sign Pujols, keep their payroll the same and their profit goes up, they haven't made money?

They have. Despite Pujols. They could have made even more.

 

So you can prove that the increase in profit was not due to Pujols and that he had no impact on the profit increase? How so?

I showed the analysis earlier. A reasonable estimate for Pujols' impact on the Cubs' revenue is $10-15M.

 

i already bought a cubs pujols jersey shirt so they just need $14,999,970

[Sammy Sofa]

Which is why it's such a depressing future for a Cubs fan.

 

Personally I don't find it depressing at all. Even without the lack of projected star players right now the farm is still in better shape than it's been a long while and even just generating a few good everyday players would be a huge improvement. This is also a team with a lot of money at their disposal, so they can afford to sign the all-stars they need. Mix that with some smart, lower tier FA signings and some solid players developed internally and they can have a really good team that competes each year. What's going to be key is who ends up being the the next GM and when.

 

Agreed for the most part, but, like you said, are we confident that we have a GM to benefit from those positive things?

 

Also, as we've learned the hard way in the playoffs, without a few dominant starters and a few hitters people are afraid of, it's hard to win. It's nice to win 97 games, but when you don't have a no-doubt #1 pitcher or anyone who is almost guaranteed to hit in a series, it doesn't mean much.

 

Then again, losing in the playoffs is much preferred to the purgatory we're in now. If we could figure out a way to sign Pujols AND build around him, we'd be talking!

 

No, I'm not confident in Hendry doing all of those things. I'm also not confident in the Ricketts firing him before this Pujols thing plays out, too.

 

Actually, I have little doubt he could handle signing the superstar FA's. My concern with him is mostly the mid-tier signings.

Edited May 23, 2011 by Sammy Sofa

[Sammy Sofa]

Curious if you would take ARod (and his contract) off of the Yankees' hands for free right now.

 

Of course, especially since his contract is front-loaded.

[dew1679666265]

Curious if you would take ARod (and his contract) off of the Yankees' hands for free right now.

 

Right now, no. But that's because we missed his best years. ARod will turn 36 in July and already posted wOBA's of .413 and .405 (6.0 and 4.5 WAR respectively) his first two seasons of his deal. Since then he's been at a .363 and, so far, .383 wOBA.

 

Next season, Pujols will be 32 and, at the corresponding age, ARod posted a .449 wOBA (9.2 WAR) followed by the .413 and .405 wOBA seasons. I'd take ARod's contract if we could start back at his age 32 season.

[Sammy Sofa]

Meh, I'd still be willing to it if they're just inexplicably saying "here you go."

[Tracer Bullet]

I skipped like 5 pages b/c I foolishly believed that this couldn't still be going on. Stop. Please. Or set up a new thread to make the same posts over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over.

[dew1679666265]

Meh, I'd still be willing to it if they're just inexplicably saying "here you go."

 

I actually posted that before I realized the contract was front loaded. That changes my opinion some, though ARod's very good numbers this year appear boosted by quite a bit of luck (.304 BABIP vs a 12.9 LD%).

 

Right now he looks like a mid-.800s OPS guy being paid $25-29 mil over the next few years if he doesn't decline at all. Knowing it's frontloaded, I'd lean toward taking it but it gets a lot less attractive when you know you're missing out on the awesome numbers at the front end of the deal.

[dew1679666265]

I skipped like 5 pages b/c I foolishly believed that this couldn't still be going on. Stop. Please. Or set up a new thread to make the same posts over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over.

 

I think the debate over how much profit Pujols has to bring in has ended, if that's what you're referring to (and I'm pretty sure it is). I know I'm done with it.

[Sammy Sofa]

Meh, I'd still be willing to it if they're just inexplicably saying "here you go."

 

I actually posted that before I realized the contract was front loaded. That changes my opinion some, though ARod's very good numbers this year appear boosted by quite a bit of luck (.304 BABIP vs a 12.9 LD%).

 

Right now he looks like a mid-.800s OPS guy being paid $25-29 mil over the next few years if he doesn't decline at all. Knowing it's frontloaded, I'd lean toward taking it but it gets a lot less attractive when you know you're missing out on the awesome numbers at the front end of the deal.

 

Oh, definitely. I wouldn't be nearly as thrilled about this as when there were the rumors that he might look elsewhere a few years ago.

[Sammy Sofa]

I skipped like 5 pages b/c I foolishly believed that this couldn't still be going on. Stop. Please. Or set up a new thread to make the same posts over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over.

 

I think the debate over how much profit Pujols has to bring in has ended, if that's what you're referring to (and I'm pretty sure it is). I know I'm done with it.

 

Same here.

[Guest]

Just sayin, though: He's got 911 PAs of .301/.397/.551 since turning 30, and the defensive metrics have nosedived on him the past few seasons.

 

Last year was the 4th best of his 10 MLB seasons.

[davearm2]

I'm surely not going to apologize for exploring the profit issue. I think the business side of sports is fascinating to analyze and discuss. And you're not going to find a better case-study (in baseball anyway) than Pujols.

 

That said, I get that it's totally dry and uninteresting to some folks. Which is fine.

[davearm2]

Just sayin, though: He's got 911 PAs of .301/.397/.551 since turning 30, and the defensive metrics have nosedived on him the past few seasons.

 

Last year was the 4th best of his 10 MLB seasons.

How are the next 10 going to rank ;)

[Guest]

Just sayin, though: He's got 911 PAs of .301/.397/.551 since turning 30, and the defensive metrics have nosedived on him the past few seasons.

 

Last year was the 4th best of his 10 MLB seasons.

How are the next 10 going to rank ;)

 

Meh, I'm only worried about the next 8.

[davearm2]

Courtesy of Cot's, the most lucrative contracts in baseball history, by total value:

 

1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)

2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)

3. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)

4. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)

5. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)

6. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)

7. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)

8. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 (2011-20)

9. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18)

10. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15)

11. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17)

12. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)

13. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)

14. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)

15. Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14)

. . . Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)

. . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17)

18. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16)

19. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)

20. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08)

. . . Matt Holliday, $120,000,000 (2010-16)

. . . Cliff Lee, $120,000,000 (2011-15)

23. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11)

24. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08)

25. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005)

26. Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)

. . . Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10)

28. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 (2008-12)

29. Mike Piazza, $91,000,000 (1999-2005)

. . . Barry Bonds, $90,000,000 (2002-06)

. . . Torii Hunter, $90,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Chipper Jones, $90,000,000 (2001-06)

. . . Scott Rolen, $90,000,000 (2003-10)

. . . Ichiro Suzuki, $90,000,000 (2008-12)

 

Considering just the subset of these that aren't new in the last year or two: how many of those would the team rather have a do-over? Lots of cases of paying for past performance here.

 

(And I get that Pujols is better than almost all of these guys... which is why the magnitude of his deal is gonna put him at or near the top of the list.)

[TruffleShuffle]

(And I get that Pujols is better than almost all of these guys... which is why the magnitude of his deal is gonna put him at or near the top of the list.)

 

and if you look at the top of the list, how many teams are disappointed with the production they got for their dollar? the yankees probably will be for ARod Part II; nobody should've been for the previous monster contract. jeter? meh... his defense is mostly lousy, but it's the yankees and he was still very good through the entire life of that contract. jury is still out on mauer. teixeira and sabathia contracts look fine. manny probably wasn't worth $20m a year, but just because his glove was awful... offensively they got what they were paying for. tulo and agonz - who knows. miggy cabrera appears well on his way to earning that contract.

 

if you narrow it down to elite players things don't really look that bad.

[Sammy Sofa]

The Helton deal wasn't horrible, but the Rockies definitely didn't get what they must have thought they were buying into in 2003.

[Tracer Bullet]

those top 10 look really good. 11 is much too early to tell. but 12-15? yikes. go elite, but don't go near-elite.

[Sammy Sofa]

That Ryan Howard contract was yikes from day #1.

[TruffleShuffle]

those top 10 look really good. 11 is much too early to tell. but 12-15? yikes. go elite, but don't go near-elite.

 

to be fair, santana was elite... health has been the main problem with him.

[XZero771679666304]

That Ryan Howard contract was yikes from day #1.

 

The day that contract was signed I knew the Cards were going to have a hard time re-signing Pujols. For him to take less than Ryan Howard would be tough for the union to swallow. Pujols is the best offensive player in the game, Ryan Howard isn't even top five at his position.

 

The Howard contract is ridiculously awful.

[davearm2]

(And I get that Pujols is better than almost all of these guys... which is why the magnitude of his deal is gonna put him at or near the top of the list.)

 

and if you look at the top of the list, how many teams are disappointed with the production they got for their dollar? the yankees probably will be for ARod Part II; nobody should've been for the previous monster contract. jeter? meh... his defense is mostly lousy, but it's the yankees and he was still very good through the entire life of that contract. jury is still out on mauer. teixeira and sabathia contracts look fine. manny probably wasn't worth $20m a year, but just because his glove was awful... offensively they got what they were paying for. tulo and agonz - who knows. miggy cabrera appears well on his way to earning that contract.

 

if you narrow it down to elite players things don't really look that bad.

I'm pretty sure the Rangers would disagree with you on the first ARod deal ;)

[Tracer Bullet]

The Helton deal wasn't horrible, but the Rockies definitely didn't get what they must have thought they were buying into in 2003.

 

yeah, you could arguably extend my "yikes" all the way to 20. i just stopped at reading at wells/zito.

[davearm2]

those top 10 look really good. 11 is much too early to tell. but 12-15? yikes. go elite, but don't go near-elite.

 

to be fair, santana was elite... health has been the main problem with him.

Actually to be fair... pitchers are a whole different proposition from hitters.