BA's Top 10 Cubs Prospects

[apete6]

This just makes it all the more important to sign Szczur. If Ricketts meant he's all about building through the system, then do what it takes to sign him.

 

It's pretty clear that he's not after last year's draft and trading 3 top 10 prospects for 3 years of hispanic Randy Wells.

[Tyrant]

This just makes it all the more important to sign Szczur. If Ricketts meant he's all about building through the system, then do what it takes to sign him.

 

It's pretty clear that he's not after last year's draft and trading 3 top 10 prospects for 3 years of hispanic Randy Wells.

 

Randy Wells would have an ERA around 30.00 in the AL East.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

The Cubs have solid draft position this year and could potentially get type a status from Pena and possibly Dempster correct?

 

If so they can make up the loss of Archer and Lee fairly quick. Not to mention they continue to scout the Pacific Rim better than anyone else.

[davell]

The Cubs have solid draft position this year and could potentially get type a status from Pena and possibly Dempster correct?

 

If so they can make up the loss of Archer and Lee fairly quick. Not to mention they continue to scout the Pacific Rim better than anyone else.

 

Unless Pena has an unbelievable year, I can't see the Cubs offering arb to him, in fear he'd accept. If the Cubs miss out on Fielder or whoever next offseason though, they may not have much of a choice, but to keep him anyway.

 

As far as Dempster goes, I can't see him leaving here early. It's his option, not the Cubs. In fact, part of me is worried we'll give him an extra year or two on top of that.

 

As far as the Pac Rim goes, I'm waiting to see where the Boras client(Sung Hyuk Han) is going to sign. To me, he's a "must get" for us. We get anyone of importance over there as it is, so we better land him, even if he's going to cost quite a bit more than what we're used to paying out for Int FA's.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

The Cubs have solid draft position this year and could potentially get type a status from Pena and possibly Dempster correct?

 

If so they can make up the loss of Archer and Lee fairly quick. Not to mention they continue to scout the Pacific Rim better than anyone else.

 

Unless Pena has an unbelievable year, I can't see the Cubs offering arb to him, in fear he'd accept. If the Cubs miss out on Fielder or whoever next offseason though, they may not have much of a choice, but to keep him anyway.

 

As far as Dempster goes, I can't see him leaving here early. It's his option, not the Cubs. In fact, part of me is worried we'll give him an extra year or two on top of that.

 

As far as the Pac Rim goes, I'm waiting to see where the Boras client(Sung Hyuk Han) is going to sign. To me, he's a "must get" for us. We get anyone of importance over there as it is, so we better land him, even if he's going to cost quite a bit more than what we're used to paying out for Int FA's.

 

I think if Pena bounces back than you have to offer him arbitration, he is using this as a platform year, he has basically stated a big year for him and he can look for his multiyear deal.

 

If Dempster continues his success I cannot see him not trying to take advantge and grab a deal similar to Ted Lilly. He is more likely to opt out and the Cubs not offer him a deal than to take a year deal from the Cubs.

[Guest]

With regards to drafting hitters, the problem (partially because of Wilken's up-the-middle draft strategy) is Wilken's unwillingness to draft power hitters (sans Golden).

 

And davell, we have lost our share of Korean prospects (primarily to the Mariners and Rangers). I don't think you can say we get "anyone of importance" because of that. And the Boras affiliation makes Han a special case too. (That isn't to take away from the Cubs' efforts in South Korea - they are clearly the biggest presence there.)

[davell]

Yeah, I know other teams get guys out of there, but I was thinking any relatively larger bonus has been given out by the Cubs over the last 2-3 years. I could be mistaken on that though.

[CubsWin]

Well, the Cubs still have McNutt and BJax. Oh, and they still have those 20 guys 20 years old or younger.

 

Let's see how Vitters and Lake do this season...

 

Hey, I'm trying.

[craig]

Yeah, the list looks way weaker without 3 top ten and 4 top 17's. And as you say, cal, delete Szczur too and what was getting me pretty fired up will look decisively weak.

 

That said, if Cashner were to make the rotation, and Colvin a primary starter in RF, that would be a system producing four starters over the course of two seasons (Garza/Cashner/Castro/Colvin). That's some pretty good production, I think.

 

I think the chance of the Cubs getting A compensation for Pena and Dempster is remote. I don't think Hendry has arbed anybody he didn't intend to sign since Matt Clement. And the arb deadline has moved up a couple of weeks. For a while Kendall and Pierre got signed before Hendry could decline to arb them, so we got a free pick for each of them. But that isn't likely to happen before Nov 20 or whenever. Pena hitting under .200 probably means he'd have at best a shot at B, which is actually better. Teams don't lose a pick for a B, so they don't need to wait for GM's to non-arb.

[TruffleShuffle]

i hope jim hendry gets run over by a dump truck. what a dolt.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

This trade definitely dents the list but several factors could make people soon forget.

 

Vitters having a bounce back year

McNutt repeating success

Lake taking a step forward

Simpson having a good rookie campaign

 

To me those 4 things will be the key to the Cubs minor league system this year.

[CubsWin]

This trade definitely dents the list but several factors could make people soon forget.

 

Vitters having a bounce back year

McNutt repeating success

Lake taking a step forward

Simpson having a good rookie campaign

 

To me those 4 things will be the key to the Cubs minor league system this year.

I agree those 4 things would be nice, but I would want more than just that.

 

1. Szczur comes back and plays well.

2. Golden needs to impress.

3. Wells and Reed do well.

4. Kurcz reaches High-A and does well.

5. Robinson Lopez takes the next step in his development.

6. Carpenter contributes to the big league club this season.

7. Last but certainly not least, Brett Jackson hits AAA pitching hard.

 

All 11 of those things happening is not very likely, but that's what I'm watching for and hoping for.

[Guest]

The Cubs have solid draft position this year and could potentially get type a status from Pena and possibly Dempster correct?

 

If so they can make up the loss of Archer and Lee fairly quick. Not to mention they continue to scout the Pacific Rim better than anyone else.

 

Unless Pena has an unbelievable year, I can't see the Cubs offering arb to him, in fear he'd accept. If the Cubs miss out on Fielder or whoever next offseason though, they may not have much of a choice, but to keep him anyway.

 

As far as Dempster goes, I can't see him leaving here early. It's his option, not the Cubs. In fact, part of me is worried we'll give him an extra year or two on top of that.

 

As far as the Pac Rim goes, I'm waiting to see where the Boras client(Sung Hyuk Han) is going to sign. To me, he's a "must get" for us. We get anyone of importance over there as it is, so we better land him, even if he's going to cost quite a bit more than what we're used to paying out for Int FA's.

 

Unless Pena has an incredible year, isn't it likely his 2010 season combined with this 2011 keeps him at a B rather than an A?

[davell]

To me, the MAIN thing for our farm system is that Ricketts spends quite a bit more money on the draft and on Int FA this year than he did last year.

[CubsWin]

To me, the MAIN thing for our farm system is that Ricketts spends quite a bit more money on the draft and on Int FA this year than he did last year.

That too.

 

With the 9th pick, there should be some pretty good talent coming in the 1st couple rounds. And this is supposed to be an unusually deep draft...

[davell]

To me, the MAIN thing for our farm system is that Ricketts spends quite a bit more money on the draft and on Int FA this year than he did last year.

That too.

 

With the 9th pick, there should be some pretty good talent coming in the 1st couple rounds. And this is supposed to be an unusually deep draft...

 

 

It IS supposed to be a great draft. What I'm looking for though is a very agressive approach to it. I want to see some major overslots. Take chances on guys that may develop once they're in college or with another year or two in college. Put money into these guys NOW. Do that in the later rounds and take guys worth their pick early on. 10 mill spent on this draft and 5 mill on Int FA is what needs to be done. That's probably about double what we spent last year on these 2 areas and with the idea that we'd spend more this upcoming season, this is what needs to be done.

[craig]

dave, I think you're pretty likely to be very disappointed. Asking for all this investment in procurement, I don't think that's at all likely to happen.

 

A little bump? Perhaps. But I'll be surprised if it isn't relatively status quo.

 

By the way, if they do amp up the dollars to Szczur, that might make last year's spending look surprisingly high.

 

If they spend more, maybe one or two more things internationally, that we here about. (Of course, they might sign a few more of the $130K type prospects that we don't hear about in Latin America.)

 

A top-ten draft pick will naturally boost the budget, even they more or less stay with slot for a round.

 

Last year Wilken drafted a lot of teenagers and gave out a lot of the $150K type deals, basically standard price for a HS/JC pick, although "superslot" by some terminology. I hope that continues.

[davell]

My reasoning is this: There's an article that Ricketts says the overall "baseball budget" will stay the same. He then said this meant scouting, payroll, and player development were the criteria in this. Now, the question to me is this: Does he mean from opening day payroll of last year or what we wound up paying out? Even if it's the latter, we spent 132.5 last year on payroll and also paid Lou 4 mill as well. Quade is getting 850,000 this year and currently our payroll projects to right at 126. Plus, I actually expect us to deal away Gorzelanny, which would take another 2.5 mill or so off of that.

 

We only signed Kim, Serrano, and Sanchez last year as far as "big money" Int FA go, so even if you give them an extra million on top of that to fill out DSL rosters, it takes the Int budget to about 3 million. Then, we spent around 5.5 on the draft last year. If you add all of this stuff up, it's going to leave us 16ish mill to spend on Int FA and the Draft this upcoming year. Maybe more, if Gorz is dealt.

 

Like I have said, I don't EXPECT Ricketts to actually follow through with this, but if he does what he's said he's going to do, then this is what we have alotted for this for 2011.

[craig]

I was looking through our system last night and thought we needed to go hitting heavy in this upcoming draft. Losing Lee, Guyer, and Chirinos makes me think is a true necessity now. I know Archer is the top guy, but we've still got plenty of intriguing arms. You move past Brett and Vitters and our system is pathetic as far as hitting goes, unless Golden comes through and even if he does, it's still weak as hell......

 

With regards to drafting hitters, the problem (partially because of Wilken's up-the-middle draft strategy) is Wilken's unwillingness to draft power hitters (sans Golden).

 

Good posts. I agree, Dave, we need to add some hitters, and I hope the draft goes in that direction.

 

I'm not sure the drafting of up-the-middle is so much the problem, although it can be. But Colvin was kind of up the middle, he's got power. Flaherty was up the middle, now Phil says he's maybe too big for anything but LF/1B. So I think he was drafted to hit and hit with power, even though that's not looking so promising. Donaldson was supposed to hit and hit with power. Vitters. Guyer was drafted to be a hitter, corner from the start. Golden corner from the start. Marques Smith. Lansford. So I guess it seems to me there have been some hitters taken, and many/most of them with the chance to grow into power. Even Lemahieu, Hendry said from the start that he thought he could hit with some power.

 

But yes, I wouldn't mind a true-hitting average/power 1B or corner OF guy.

 

And with Lee gone, SS looks very different. What if Castro does outgrow it himself? A true SS drafted not to grow into 3B or LF but drafted to potentially become a SS wouldn't be out of the question.

Edited January 9, 2011 by craig

[davell]

I'm not going to worry about Castro outgrowing SS for a while, if ever. One of the interesting things to watch though, now that Lee is gone is it appears as if Watkins will move over to SS and Cerda will move back to 2B. I think Cerda as a 2B has value personally. His bat plays much better there than at 3B anyway.

[craig]

I'm not going to worry about Castro outgrowing SS for a while, if ever. One of the interesting things to watch though, now that Lee is gone is it appears as if Watkins will move over to SS and Cerda will move back to 2B. I think Cerda as a 2B has value personally. His bat plays much better there than at 3B anyway.

 

Both of those guys improve their big-league chances this way, I agree.

 

Nice post and analysis of the Ricketts payroll stuff.

 

We'll see, and I'm a little skeptical. But it would be great if they had the budget to spend more aggressively on procurement. I think the scouting quality has actually been very good. I'd like to see what they could do with the ability to sign even more or even better players.

[Guest]

This trade definitely dents the list but several factors could make people soon forget.

 

Vitters having a bounce back year

McNutt repeating success

Lake taking a step forward

Simpson having a good rookie campaign

 

To me those 4 things will be the key to the Cubs minor league system this year.

I agree those 4 things would be nice, but I would want more than just that.

 

1. Szczur comes back and plays well.

2. Golden needs to impress.

3. Wells and Reed do well.

4. Kurcz reaches High-A and does well.

5. Robinson Lopez takes the next step in his development.

6. Carpenter contributes to the big league club this season.

7. Last but certainly not least, Brett Jackson hits AAA pitching hard.

 

All 11 of those things happening is not very likely, but that's what I'm watching for and hoping for.

I don't really think Golden needs to impress. I think he simply needs to do ok and not hack, hack, hack away. I will be happy with that. He's a very unpolished baseball player who is a tremendous athlete. He needs to learn how to harness his talent. That's often the hardest thing to do for a (Cobs) prospect.

[Guest]

Which guys outside of the top ten have been basically numbered, from the chat?

 

A post said they had Chirinos and Castillo at 16-17, and Watkins/Flaherty at 21-22. (I'm shocked that Watkins is still that high. Whatever for, I wonder?)

 

Who else kind of got pegged, whether with exact number of in ballpark area?

 

On Bruce Miles's blog, http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/5035#comments

 

a poster copied in basically all of the top ten writeups. The Szczur writeup is really Wow.

 

If he's really all that, I think they're going to be willing to offer more than the standing $0.5 to keep him.

 

Alberto Cabrera - 11

Robinson Chirinos - 16

Welington Castillo - 17

Logan Watkins - 21

Ryan Flaherty - 22

Matt Cerda - 31

 

Not in top 30:

 

Jeff Beliveau (just missed)

Micah Gibbs

Chris Rusin (close to the top 30)

Austin Kirk (close to the top 30)

Evan Crawford

 

With the trade of Archer, Lee, Guyer and Chirinos, here's what BA's list would look like:

 

1. Brett Jackson

2. Trey McNutt

3. Josh Vitters

4. Chris Carpenter

5. Matt Szczur

6. Hayden Simpson

7. Rafael Dolis

8. Alberto Cabrera

9. ?

10. ?

13. Welington Castillo

17. Logan Watkins

18. Ryan Flaherty

27. Matt Cerda

 

And, of course, Szczur might not be in the organization by next month.

 

Ask BA:

As for the Cubs, Brett Jackson would ascend from No. 2 to replace Archer as the system's best prospect, while Alberto Cabrera, Darwin Barney and D.J. LeMahieu would come into the Top 10. Quick scouting reports on the newcomers: Cabrera is a righthander with a 92-97 mph fastball and mid-80s slider; Barney is a proven winner and quality middle-infield defender who plays above his tools; and LeMahieu is the best pure hitter in the system but needs to find more power to make it at third base, his best defensive position.

 

1. Brett Jackson

2. Trey McNutt

3. Josh Vitters

4. Chris Carpenter

5. Matt Szczur

6. Hayden Simpson

7. Rafael Dolis

8. Alberto Cabrera

9. Darwin Barney

10. DJ LeMahieu

 

Ouch.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Has Jay Jackson completely fallen off the map? Nothing against Barney as a solid backup SS, but he has no business as a top 10 prospect.

[CUBZ99]

Has Jay Jackson completely fallen off the map? Nothing against Barney as a solid backup SS, but he has no business as a top 10 prospect.

 

Jackson had a terrible second half of the season last year. I don't know if he was battling an injury or whether or not the short move to the bullpen had an effect on him, but he was pitching pretty good until the half way point, when the wheels fell off.