NFL Wildcard Weekend

[kujay]

Just a reminder that now that the playoffs are starting, the overtime rules change.

 

Can't win the game with a FG on the first OT possession.

 

I had completely forgotten about that.

[Guest]

Just a reminder that now that the playoffs are starting, the overtime rules change.

 

Can't win the game with a FG on the first OT possession.

 

How the heck is that going to work? If I elect to receive and I march down and kick a field goal, the opposing team has the opportunity to march down the field and either match my field goal or score a touchdown to win?

 

If I march down the field and score a touchdown, the opposing team doesn't get to try to march down the field and match my touchdown?

[Banedon]

Just a reminder that now that the playoffs are starting, the overtime rules change.

 

Can't win the game with a FG on the first OT possession.

 

How the heck is that going to work? If I elect to receive and I march down and kick a field goal, the opposing team has the opportunity to march down the field and either match my field goal or score a touchdown to win?

 

If I march down the field and score a touchdown, the opposing team doesn't get to try to march down the field and match my touchdown?

 

Correct.

[UMFan83]

I think I am like the only person in the world picking either the Jets or the Chiefs, but for some reason I just can't shake picking them both. Especially KC. I think they are going to surprise people. As for the Colts, I am just not sure they are all that good this year. Of course neither are the Jets, so in that case the home team would be the safe option, so I can see why they are the popular pick.

[SouthSideRyan]

Just a reminder that now that the playoffs are starting, the overtime rules change.

 

Can't win the game with a FG on the first OT possession.

 

They're just trying to confuse McNabb at this point.

[dew1679666265]

I think I am like the only person in the world picking either the Jets or the Chiefs, but for some reason I just can't shake picking them both. Especially KC. I think they are going to surprise people. As for the Colts, I am just not sure they are all that good this year. Of course neither are the Jets, so in that case the home team would be the safe option, so I can see why they are the popular pick.

 

The Colts aren't all that good this year, but like you said, the Jets aren't either. I like the Colts primarily because I don't think the Rex Ryan defense, built on confusing the QB, will be successful enough. The Jets need a low scoring game and I think the Colts will be able to turn it into a high scoring game.

[bukie]

I think I am like the only person in the world picking either the Jets or the Chiefs, but for some reason I just can't shake picking them both. Especially KC. I think they are going to surprise people. As for the Colts, I am just not sure they are all that good this year. Of course neither are the Jets, so in that case the home team would be the safe option, so I can see why they are the popular pick.

The Chiefs have not been a good team the last 10 weeks or so, and they had the benefit of the easiest schedule in the NFL. Baltimore is a terrible matchup for them, as they'd have had at least a sporting chance against the Jets.

 

The best team the Chiefs played all year was the Colts (or do the Chargers count as a better team?). Their best win was week 1 when the Chargers were awful.

[bukie]

To look at it another way, here is the weighted DVOA of the playoff teams (weighted to make recent games more significant):

 

1. New England: 54.0%

2. Pittsburgh: 40.0%

3. Baltimore: 27.8%

4. Green Bay: 25.2%

5. Philadelphia: 21.4%

6. New York Jets: 14.9%

7. New Orleans: 13.8%

8. Atlanta: 13.5%

9. Chicago: 11.5%

----------------------------

10. Indianapolis: -1.0%

11. Kansas City: -11.3%

12. Seattle: -31.7%

 

Divisional game matchup difference:

Green Bay (25.2%) at Philadelphia (21.4%) - 3.8%

New York Jets (14.9%) at Indianapolis (-1.0%) - 15.9%

Baltimore (27.8%) at Kansas City (-11.3%) - 39.1%

New Orleans (13.8%) at Seattle (-31.7%) - 45.5%

 

So, the Baltimore-KC matchup is easily the second-most lopsided matchup of the first round, and even in the NO-Seattle game you could envision a home team bump for stadium conditions and playing a warm weather dome team, of which KC won't get the benefit.

[Soul]

I think I am like the only person in the world picking either the Jets or the Chiefs, but for some reason I just can't shake picking them both. Especially KC. I think they are going to surprise people. As for the Colts, I am just not sure they are all that good this year. Of course neither are the Jets, so in that case the home team would be the safe option, so I can see why they are the popular pick.

 

Jets just can't rush the passer. I'm just not sure how they stop Manning if he's sitting back there with all day to pick out a receiver. I know he avoids the rush well too, but I still think you need to at least make him move a little or try to disturb his rhythm. Jets can't do that this year.

 

I've got the Colts in that game.

 

I could see the Chiefs winning. We'll see.

[Banedon]

Vegas' odds on the Super Bowl winner...

 

New England Patriots: 2/1

Atlanta Falcons: 11/2 (tie)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 11/2 (tie)

New Orleans Saints: 10/1

Philadelphia Eagles: 11/1

Baltimore Ravens: 12/1 (tie)

Chicago Bears: 12/1 (tie)

Green Bay Packers: 12/1 (tie)

Indianapolis Colts: 14/1

New York Jets: 20/1

Kansas City Chiefs: 35/1

Seattle Seahawks: 100/1

[bukie]

Vegas' odds on the Super Bowl winner...

 

New England Patriots: 2/1

Atlanta Falcons: 11/2 (tie)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 11/2 (tie)

New Orleans Saints: 10/1

Philadelphia Eagles: 11/1

Baltimore Ravens: 12/1 (tie)

Chicago Bears: 12/1 (tie)

Green Bay Packers: 12/1 (tie)

Indianapolis Colts: 14/1

New York Jets: 20/1

Kansas City Chiefs: 35/1

Seattle Seahawks: 100/1

Going by FO SB win odds, Pittsburgh and Chicago are undervalued here. New Orleans and Indy are overvalued.

[chuckywang]

Vegas' odds on the Super Bowl winner...

 

New England Patriots: 2/1

Atlanta Falcons: 11/2 (tie)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 11/2 (tie)

New Orleans Saints: 10/1

Philadelphia Eagles: 11/1

Baltimore Ravens: 12/1 (tie)

Chicago Bears: 12/1 (tie)

Green Bay Packers: 12/1 (tie)

Indianapolis Colts: 14/1

New York Jets: 20/1

Kansas City Chiefs: 35/1

Seattle Seahawks: 100/1

 

By my calculations, there is a 119.8% chance of someone winning the Super Bowl.

[bukie]

Vegas' odds on the Super Bowl winner...

 

New England Patriots: 2/1

Atlanta Falcons: 11/2 (tie)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 11/2 (tie)

New Orleans Saints: 10/1

Philadelphia Eagles: 11/1

Baltimore Ravens: 12/1 (tie)

Chicago Bears: 12/1 (tie)

Green Bay Packers: 12/1 (tie)

Indianapolis Colts: 14/1

New York Jets: 20/1

Kansas City Chiefs: 35/1

Seattle Seahawks: 100/1

 

By my calculations, there is a 119.8% chance of someone winning the Super Bowl.

That is because Vegas always wins.

[chuckywang]

Vegas' odds on the Super Bowl winner...

 

New England Patriots: 2/1

Atlanta Falcons: 11/2 (tie)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 11/2 (tie)

New Orleans Saints: 10/1

Philadelphia Eagles: 11/1

Baltimore Ravens: 12/1 (tie)

Chicago Bears: 12/1 (tie)

Green Bay Packers: 12/1 (tie)

Indianapolis Colts: 14/1

New York Jets: 20/1

Kansas City Chiefs: 35/1

Seattle Seahawks: 100/1

 

By my calculations, there is a 119.8% chance of someone winning the Super Bowl.

That is because Vegas always wins.

 

I know, but geez ... what a ripoff. I thought 105% or 110% at the most, since it's the Super Bowl. But 120%? Wow.

[UMFan83]

To look at it another way, here is the weighted DVOA of the playoff teams (weighted to make recent games more significant):

 

1. New England: 54.0%

2. Pittsburgh: 40.0%

3. Baltimore: 27.8%

4. Green Bay: 25.2%

5. Philadelphia: 21.4%

6. New York Jets: 14.9%

7. New Orleans: 13.8%

8. Atlanta: 13.5%

9. Chicago: 11.5%

----------------------------

10. Indianapolis: -1.0%

11. Kansas City: -11.3%

12. Seattle: -31.7%

 

Divisional game matchup difference:

Green Bay (25.2%) at Philadelphia (21.4%) - 3.8%

New York Jets (14.9%) at Indianapolis (-1.0%) - 15.9%

Baltimore (27.8%) at Kansas City (-11.3%) - 39.1%

New Orleans (13.8%) at Seattle (-31.7%) - 45.5%

 

So, the Baltimore-KC matchup is easily the second-most lopsided matchup of the first round, and even in the NO-Seattle game you could envision a home team bump for stadium conditions and playing a warm weather dome team, of which KC won't get the benefit.

 

You and your stupid numbers. Fair enough. My thoughts were based on the fact that KC has been a fantastic home team. Until this weekend in a game with only some meaning, they were undefeated at home with a +100 point differential (Average margin of victory of +14). Compare that to on the road where they were 3-5 with a -34 point differential. What I didn't realize is, like you pointed out, they haven't played anyone that good.

 

Baltimore is a fantastic team as we all know, so I guess I am going out on a big limb here picking the Chiefs, but I am going to anyways.

[bukie]

You and your stupid numbers. Fair enough. My thoughts were based on the fact that KC has been a fantastic home team. Until this weekend in a game with only some meaning, they were undefeated at home with a +100 point differential (Average margin of victory of +14). Compare that to on the road where they were 3-5 with a -34 point differential. What I didn't realize is, like you pointed out, they haven't played anyone that good.

 

Baltimore is a fantastic team as we all know, so I guess I am going out on a big limb here picking the Chiefs, but I am going to anyways.

No worries, I'm picking Seattle.

[Banedon]

You and your stupid numbers. Fair enough. My thoughts were based on the fact that KC has been a fantastic home team. Until this weekend in a game with only some meaning, they were undefeated at home with a +100 point differential (Average margin of victory of +14). Compare that to on the road where they were 3-5 with a -34 point differential. What I didn't realize is, like you pointed out, they haven't played anyone that good.

 

Baltimore is a fantastic team as we all know, so I guess I am going out on a big limb here picking the Chiefs, but I am going to anyways.

No worries, I'm picking Seattle.

 

Because you think they'll win, or because you want them to win?

[bukie]

You and your stupid numbers. Fair enough. My thoughts were based on the fact that KC has been a fantastic home team. Until this weekend in a game with only some meaning, they were undefeated at home with a +100 point differential (Average margin of victory of +14). Compare that to on the road where they were 3-5 with a -34 point differential. What I didn't realize is, like you pointed out, they haven't played anyone that good.

 

Baltimore is a fantastic team as we all know, so I guess I am going out on a big limb here picking the Chiefs, but I am going to anyways.

No worries, I'm picking Seattle.

 

Because you think they'll win, or because you want them to win?

Because I want them to win, and I think they have a better shot than anyone is giving them credit for. Too many people see New Orleans as the same team as last year. Seattle is either really good or terrible this year (mostly terrible, 4 times really good), and nothing in between. I think they have one more good performance in them before a stinker the following week.

[bcl412]

Packers over Eagles

Saints over Seahawks. I don't see how the Seahawks move the ball and the Saints will score

Ravens over Chiefs. The only way the Chiefs move the ball is by running. Ravens stop the run

so it will be tough for the Chiefs to score. I do think it will be a close game though and wouldn't be surprised by an upset. Ravens play close vs everyone it seems.

Jets over Colts. I just think the Jets are better although I've gone back and forth over this one.

 

Packers over Falcons

Saints over Bears

Patriots over Jets

Ravens over Steelers

 

Packers over Saints

Ravens over Patriots

 

Packers over Ravens

 

I'm drinking kool-aid on this one but what the hell.

[Formerly Snayke]

The Chiefs have not been a good team the last 10 weeks or so, and they had the benefit of the easiest schedule in the NFL. Baltimore is a terrible matchup for them, as they'd have had at least a sporting chance against the Jets.

 

The best team the Chiefs played all year was the Colts (or do the Chargers count as a better team?). Their best win was week 1 when the Chargers were awful.

 

I sort of agree. I see them as the second-worst division champion in football, but they have enough playmakers where they could get an upset, espcially at Arrowhead.

[Banedon]

Packers over Eagles

Saints over Seahawks. I don't see how the Seahawks move the ball and the Saints will score

Ravens over Chiefs. The only way the Chiefs move the ball is by running. Ravens stop the run

so it will be tough for the Chiefs to score. I do think it will be a close game though and wouldn't be surprised by an upset. Ravens play close vs everyone it seems.

Jets over Colts. I just think the Jets are better although I've gone back and forth over this one.

 

Packers over Falcons

Saints over Bears

Patriots over Jets

Ravens over Steelers

 

Packers over Saints

Ravens over Patriots

 

Packers over Ravens

 

I'm drinking kool-aid on this one but what the hell.

 

Yeah...Saints over Bears at Soldier Field in January would be quite surprising. As would Baltimore beating the Pats in Foxborough. Not to mention the whole "Packers winning 3 road games plus the SB" thing.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I think they have a better shot than anyone is giving them credit for.

 

I agree with you on this

[UMFan83]

Packers over Eagles

Saints over Seahawks. I don't see how the Seahawks move the ball and the Saints will score

Ravens over Chiefs. The only way the Chiefs move the ball is by running. Ravens stop the run

so it will be tough for the Chiefs to score. I do think it will be a close game though and wouldn't be surprised by an upset. Ravens play close vs everyone it seems.

Jets over Colts. I just think the Jets are better although I've gone back and forth over this one.

 

Packers over Falcons

Saints over Bears

Patriots over Jets

Ravens over Steelers

 

Packers over Saints

Ravens over Patriots

 

Packers over Ravens

 

I'm drinking kool-aid on this one but what the hell.

 

Yeah...Saints over Bears at Soldier Field in January would be quite surprising. As would Baltimore beating the Pats in Foxborough. Not to mention the whole "Packers winning 3 road games plus the SB" thing.

 

I'm sure he's picking the Pats to lose because he cant see the Packers beating them.

[bcl412]

Packers over Eagles

Saints over Seahawks. I don't see how the Seahawks move the ball and the Saints will score

Ravens over Chiefs. The only way the Chiefs move the ball is by running. Ravens stop the run

so it will be tough for the Chiefs to score. I do think it will be a close game though and wouldn't be surprised by an upset. Ravens play close vs everyone it seems.

Jets over Colts. I just think the Jets are better although I've gone back and forth over this one.

 

Packers over Falcons

Saints over Bears

Patriots over Jets

Ravens over Steelers

 

Packers over Saints

Ravens over Patriots

 

Packers over Ravens

 

I'm drinking kool-aid on this one but what the hell.

 

Yeah...Saints over Bears at Soldier Field in January would be quite surprising. As would Baltimore beating the Pats in Foxborough. Not to mention the whole "Packers winning 3 road games plus the SB" thing.

 

I'm sure he's picking the Pats to lose because he cant see the Packers beating them.

 

I'm a Packers fan so that's ultimately why I picked them but I also like to pick some upsets (realistic ones) so I figure if any team were going to make some upsets it would be the Packers and the Ravens. Neither team gets blown out thus they are going to be in any game.

[SouthSideRyan]

Will these be actual Packers wins, or "should've" wins?