2011 NFL Draft Thread

[hawkeyecub]

I don't like Stanzi

Yeah, me either. I don't get the hype he's getting nationally. Guys must have short memories, because while is TD/INT ratio was pretty elite last year, he's one year removed from like a 20-pick season.

 

What is this hype he's getting? Being a projected 3rd-5th round pick is hype? And do you really think that they have short memories OR that they are impressed with the improvement he made in that area? He has ideal size with good mobility, came from a pro style offense, a decent arm, good makeup and had great production his senior year.

 

I'm not sure what else you expect from a second or third-tier QB in the draft.

[dew1679666265]

I don't like Stanzi

Yeah, me either. I don't get the hype he's getting nationally. Guys must have short memories, because while is TD/INT ratio was pretty elite last year, he's one year removed from like a 20-pick season.

 

The poor junior season is really what's keeping him from really shooting up boards. Guys I've followed (Mayock, Bunting) really like his arm and mobility and the improvement he made from his junior to senior year is very promising.

 

I wouldn't take him before Newton, Gabbert, Mallett, Locker, Devlin or Kaepernick, but he's a safer pick than most of those guys.

[javy knows my name]

I don't like Stanzi

Yeah, me either. I don't get the hype he's getting nationally. Guys must have short memories, because while is TD/INT ratio was pretty elite last year, he's one year removed from like a 20-pick season.

 

What is this hype he's getting? Being a projected 3rd-5th round pick is hype? And do you really think that they have short memories OR that they are impressed with the improvement he made in that area? He has ideal size with good mobility, came from a pro style offense, a decent arm, good makeup and had great production his senior year.

 

I'm not sure what else you expect from a second or third-tier QB in the draft.

I guess I didn't even see him as that. I think those who are unwilling to consider than his INSANE improvement in TD/INT might be a fluke are overrating the [expletive] out of him. He also had pretty excellent receivers to throw to in a run-first offense.

 

I hope he does well, but I think his reasonable projection lies pretty much dead center between '09 and '10

[hawkeyecub]

I don't like Stanzi

Yeah, me either. I don't get the hype he's getting nationally. Guys must have short memories, because while is TD/INT ratio was pretty elite last year, he's one year removed from like a 20-pick season.

 

What is this hype he's getting? Being a projected 3rd-5th round pick is hype? And do you really think that they have short memories OR that they are impressed with the improvement he made in that area? He has ideal size with good mobility, came from a pro style offense, a decent arm, good makeup and had great production his senior year.

 

I'm not sure what else you expect from a second or third-tier QB in the draft.

I guess I didn't even see him as that. I think those who are unwilling to consider than his INSANE improvement in TD/INT might be a fluke are overrating the [expletive] out of him. He also had pretty excellent receivers to throw to in a run-first offense.

 

I hope he does well, but I think his reasonable projection lies pretty much dead center between '09 and '10

 

Well then I think you have an unrealistic expectation for the amount of projectable pro-style QB's are available each year. Look around college football. There aren't many guys who have the necessary tools and production, especially coming out of a pro-style offense.

 

If you take the dead center middle between '09 and '10 you have a 60.5% passer who threw 21 TD's, 9 INT's who threw for 2,750 yards and averaged 8.35 yards per attempt.

Matt Ryan was a 60% passer who averaged less than 7 yards per attempt, and had a 3:2 TD:INT ratio. Take Josh Freeman's middle ground and he's about a 60% passer who averaged 7.2 yards per attempt and 19 TD's to 10 INT's.

 

Certainly he's not on that level and I'm not trying to compare him to them as a talent. But it gives you an idea of what kind of production most of the guys in non-gimmick offenses have coming out of college. If you don't think he's a middle round pick, you're either taking the Tyrod Taylor's of the world or only in favor of one QB being drafted per round.

 

By the way Kapernick threw less than Stanzi and played in a greatly inferior conference. He's a 62% type guy, averaging less than 8 yards per attempt with 20 TD's and 7 INT's. If you don't think Stanzi is that good, that's fine but you probably shouldn't base your argument around stats.

[dew1679666265]

I guess I didn't even see him as that. I think those who are unwilling to consider than his INSANE improvement in TD/INT might be a fluke are overrating the [expletive] out of him. He also had pretty excellent receivers to throw to in a run-first offense.

 

Again, that fluke possibility is keeping him from moving higher than he is. I've not heard anyone put him higher than a possible second round QB, and most have him third or later. If his junior year wasn't so bad, he could be looking at getting as high a grade as late first round after last season. But the poor junior year, and possibility that his reality is closer to it than his senior year, is keeping him from boosting up more.

 

Most opinions I've heard are pretty high on his physical tools, so that's helping him as well.

[dew1679666265]

Certainly he's not on that level and I'm not trying to compare him to them as a talent. But it gives you an idea of what kind of production most of the guys in non-gimmick offenses have coming out of college. If you don't think he's a middle round pick, you're either taking the Tyrod Taylor's of the world or only in favor of one QB being drafted per round.

 

This is a good point. Stanzi could very well be taken in the middle of the second round and be the 6th-7th QB taken pretty easily. This is a very deep QB draft and quite a few teams have a good chance of taking a QB.

[rawaction]

I don't like Stanzi

Yeah, me either. I don't get the hype he's getting nationally. Guys must have short memories, because while is TD/INT ratio was pretty elite last year, he's one year removed from like a 20-pick season.

 

The key is that he was able to improve on that ratio. Shows that he is coachable. I like Stanzi probably more than most people. He has good size. Can make every throw (except maybe the deep out from opposite hash, but a lot of NFL QBs can't make that throw either). Love his intangibles (leadership).

[hawkeyecub]

Mayock has Stanzi ranked 5th behind Gabbert, Locker, Newton and Mallett. I would definitely take him ahead of Kapernick, Devlin and Ponder. I would favor him over Dalton but I think they're pretty comparable.

[dew1679666265]

Mayock has Stanzi ranked 5th behind Gabbert, Locker, Newton and Mallett. I would definitely take him ahead of Kapernick, Devlin and Ponder. I would favor him over Dalton but I think they're pretty comparable.

 

I'd take Devlin and Kaepernick over Stanzi. He and Dalton are pretty similar, but I like the upside of Kaepernick too much to pass him up for a guy with (as I perceive) a fairly low ceiling.

[javy knows my name]

Certainly he's not on that level and I'm not trying to compare him to them as a talent. But it gives you an idea of what kind of production most of the guys in non-gimmick offenses have coming out of college. If you don't think he's a middle round pick, you're either taking the Tyrod Taylor's of the world or only in favor of one QB being drafted per round.

 

This is a good point. Stanzi could very well be taken in the middle of the second round and be the 6th-7th QB taken pretty easily. This is a very deep QB draft and quite a few teams have a good chance of taking a QB.

I figured the very fact that this draft was deep in QBs meant that Stanzi would go lower than usual

[Guest]

I'd take Devlin over Stanzi. Not sure about Kaepernick since he's so raw.

[hawkeyecub]

Mayock has Stanzi ranked 5th behind Gabbert, Locker, Newton and Mallett. I would definitely take him ahead of Kapernick, Devlin and Ponder. I would favor him over Dalton but I think they're pretty comparable.

 

I'd take Devlin and Kaepernick over Stanzi. He and Dalton are pretty similar, but I like the upside of Kaepernick too much to pass him up for a guy with (as I perceive) a fairly low ceiling.

 

Yeah I'm just talking personal preference and more from the Vikings perspective. Kapernick is basically a little better throwing Joe Webb with a little less athleticism. Devlin I'd need to see more of but I wasn't overly impressed with in the Eastern Washington game.

[rawaction]

1. Gabbert

2. Newton

3. Mallett

4. Locker

5. Stanzi

6. Devlin

7. Kaepernick

8. Ponder

9. Dalton

10. Taylor

 

I think Dalton has the least amount of upside and he's the 2nd smallest (to Tyrod Taylor) of this group with maybe the least amount of arm strength.

[bcl412]

I don't like Stanzi

Yeah, me either. I don't get the hype he's getting nationally. Guys must have short memories, because while is TD/INT ratio was pretty elite last year, he's one year removed from like a 20-pick season.

 

The key is that he was able to improve on that ratio. Shows that he is coachable. I like Stanzi probably more than most people. He has good size. Can make every throw (except maybe the deep out from opposite hash, but a lot of NFL QBs can't make that throw either). Love his intangibles (leadership).

 

I don't think he's the most accurate. I mean his numbers show that he is but watching him for every game of his college career he threw a lot of poor passes to open receivers. To me his value comes from his body type and his decision making but he would need a lot of work to be a decent NFL QB.

[hawkeyecub]

1. Gabbert

2. Newton

3. Mallett

4. Locker

5. Stanzi

6. Devlin

7. Kaepernick

8. Ponder

9. Dalton

10. Taylor

 

I think Dalton has the least amount of upside and he's the 2nd smallest (to Tyrod Taylor) of this group with maybe the least amount of arm strength.

 

I don't disagree much. I need to know if the Mallett "off field" stuff is just a smear campaign or there's actually something there. If there's not, I think I would put him 2. I think I might put Locker ahead of Newton though statistically it doesn't mesh. I like Stanzi most of that second tier but I think 6-9 are pretty much interchangeable just varying upon what offense you run and what you want out of your QB.

[dew1679666265]

I figured the very fact that this draft was deep in QBs meant that Stanzi would go lower than usual

 

Poor wording on my part. It's a very deep QB draft, but there are quite a few teams that need a QB. Like I said, Stanzi could be the sixth QB taken and go in the middle of the second round.

[dew1679666265]

I'd take Devlin over Stanzi. Not sure about Kaepernick since he's so raw.

 

Kaepernick's upside is just so hard to pass up. I'll admit I'm wooed by physical tools a bit too often and Kaepernick has some fantastic tools. He will need 2-3 years to develop, but what he could be is extremely intriguing.

[hawkeyecub]

I'd take Devlin over Stanzi. Not sure about Kaepernick since he's so raw.

 

Kaepernick's upside is just so hard to pass up. I'll admit I'm wooed by physical tools a bit too often and Kaepernick has some fantastic tools. He will need 2-3 years to develop, but what he could be is extremely intriguing.

 

How often do those raw, developmental guys pan out in the NFL though? Don't get me wrong I'm with you, those are the kind of guys I love in the draft also. But either out of a lack of patience or ability to fit into a specific system, the athletic (not just black) guys don't seem to work.

[dew1679666265]

I'd take Devlin over Stanzi. Not sure about Kaepernick since he's so raw.

 

Kaepernick's upside is just so hard to pass up. I'll admit I'm wooed by physical tools a bit too often and Kaepernick has some fantastic tools. He will need 2-3 years to develop, but what he could be is extremely intriguing.

 

How often do those raw, developmental guys pan out in the NFL though? Don't get me wrong I'm with you, those are the kind of guys I love in the draft also. But either out of a lack of patience or ability to fit into a specific system, the athletic (not just black) guys don't seem to work.

 

That's exactly the risk and it's a big reason why I've soured quite a bit on Locker. I love the idea of Kaepernick so much because you're "only" using a 2nd-3rd round pick on him and paying him as such, instead of a first round pick and big money on Locker.

 

If you take Kaepernick, the organization needs to accept that his risk of failure is quite high and not stake everything on his development. If they're smart about it, it's a risk worth taking. If you take a guy like Locker in the first round, however, you've got so much invested in him that he has to pan out and be a franchise QB. It's all about weighing the risk with how much the player will cost with how strongly you feel you can develop the player. That'll differ, obviously, from franchise to franchise.

[dew1679666265]

1. Gabbert

2. Newton

3. Mallett

4. Locker

5. Stanzi

6. Devlin

7. Kaepernick

8. Ponder

9. Dalton

10. Taylor

 

I think Dalton has the least amount of upside and he's the 2nd smallest (to Tyrod Taylor) of this group with maybe the least amount of arm strength.

 

For me, there's a pretty sizeable gap after the Gabbert/Newton duo and very little separation between Mallett/Locker and Stanzi/Devlin/Kaepernick. The only disagreeing I'd do with you in terms of order is I'd move Stanzi below Devlin and Kaepernick. Otherwise, I pretty much agree.

[hawkeyecub]

1. Gabbert

2. Newton

3. Mallett

4. Locker

5. Stanzi

6. Devlin

7. Kaepernick

8. Ponder

9. Dalton

10. Taylor

 

I think Dalton has the least amount of upside and he's the 2nd smallest (to Tyrod Taylor) of this group with maybe the least amount of arm strength.

 

For me, there's a pretty sizeable gap after the Gabbert/Newton duo and very little separation between Mallett/Locker and Stanzi/Devlin/Kaepernick. The only disagreeing I'd do with you in terms of order is I'd move Stanzi below Devlin and Kaepernick. Otherwise, I pretty much agree.

 

Why do you see a gap between Cam and Mallett? Honestly it's not that I disagree, I'm curious what an SEC fan thinks. I saw Mallett for 2.5 games this year and Newton for 3 games. Unless someone can explain to me the off the field issues with Mallett (WTF is that about???) I think Mallett is the better NFL QB. He does seem like an immature hayseed at times so that's not in stone but on the field I'm taking him.

 

I'm typically Mr. Production guy when it comes to the draft. Irrationally I'm a fan of Locker but I'm really torn. I think at QB the leadership/work ethic stuff is so important and obviously he has the natural talent. At the same time I think accuracy is the most underrated/overlooked trait in QB's coming into the league. At this point I don't think I'd have a problem drafting him at 12 even though I would make fun of any other team for doing the same. It's just so mental at this level and I think when you have those traits along with everything physical, I'll take a shot and try to coach your ass up.

 

Really if Gabbert is gone, on February 2 I want Locker at 12.

[dew1679666265]

Why do you see a gap between Cam and Mallett? Honestly it's not that I disagree, I'm curious what an SEC fan thinks. I saw Mallett for 2.5 games this year and Newton for 3 games. Unless someone can explain to me the off the field issues with Mallett (WTF is that about???) I think Mallett is the better NFL QB. He does seem like an immature hayseed at times so that's not in stone but on the field I'm taking him.

 

I'm typically Mr. Production guy when it comes to the draft. Irrationally I'm a fan of Locker but I'm really torn. I think at QB the leadership/work ethic stuff is so important and obviously he has the natural talent. At the same time I think accuracy is the most underrated/overlooked trait in QB's coming into the league. At this point I don't think I'd have a problem drafting him at 12 even though I would make fun of any other team for doing the same. It's just so mental at this level and I think when you have those traits along with everything physical, I'll take a shot and try to coach your ass up.

 

Really if Gabbert is gone, on February 2 I want Locker at 12.

 

Really, the mental edge, it would appear, goes pretty heavily in Cam's favor. You can point to the big jump Auburn made with the addition of him and Fairley, along with the playmaking ability he showed on the field. Stats wise, you have this:

 

Cam: 66.1% comp; 2,854 yards; 30:7 TD:INT; 124.9 rating

Mallett: 64.7% comp; 3,869 yards; 32:12 TD:INT; 109.0 rating

 

The numbers are similar (Arkansas being a more vertical passing game gives Mallett more raw yardage), but Cam's are slightly better all around. Unless Cam simply got lucky, it would seem a QB in the same system for 3 years should have been the superior player this year. Mallett's good but not great numbers is a concern, as Cam's massive year in his only go around in major college football is a big positive. Mallett did improve his completion percentage from sophomore to junior year, but his INTs also went up from junior to senior year, even though attempts stayed very similar (eight more in senior year).

 

Physically, Mallett has the body (6'6) and the arm (laser rocket) that NFL teams crave, but he has very limited mobility. Cam, on the other hand, has similar measureables (6'6 frame, definite NFL arm) plus he has very good mobility. It just seems that everything Mallett does, Cam does it better. Combine all that with my belief that Cam has much better upside and I like Cam a lot better.

 

And the least scientific method of all – from watching both play a number of games over their careers, Mallett made some great throws, but also a lot of inexplicable decisions. Cam, on the other hand, made a bunch of great throws/plays and rarely did he do something that made me wonder what in the world he was thinking.

[dew1679666265]

On Locker, the more I see him the less I like him. Each time I see him play his physical tools look more and more unimpressive. And when you post the kind of numbers he has, you've got to have fantastic physical tools.

 

I don't care what kind of leadership capability a guy has if he never throws a 2:1 TD:INT ratio and never completes 60% of his passes. It's like people who argue Vince was a great QB in Nashville because, even though his stats were subpar, "his" record was 30-18 or something like that.

[rawaction]

Mallett also had a ton of talent to throw to. Three 1000 yards WRs and what I think will be the best TE in this draft.

 

Plus, when the competition got tough....he didn't.

 

3 INTs vs. Alabama

2 INTs and 56% completion vs. LSU (though they won)

Got hurt vs. Auburn.

51% completion vs. Ohio St in bowl game.

[Warpticon]

Mallett also had a ton of talent to throw to. Three 1000 yards WRs and what I think will be the best TE in this draft.

 

Plus, when the competition got tough....he didn't.

 

3 INTs vs. Alabama

2 INTs and 56% completion vs. LSU (though they won)

Got hurt vs. Auburn.

51% completion vs. Ohio St in bowl game.

 

Three 1000 yard WRs? You're off by three. Also, holding a second quarter concussion (which occurred on a pass he completed) against Mallett as an example of him not performing against tough competition is downright silly. How dare he get his head slammed into the turf while completing a pass...? Also, that's interestingly selective in terms of examples. Alabama and maybe the last drive of the Ohio State game are the only performances on that list that really deserve citation. He had 7 or 8 balls dropped, including 2 sure touchdowns, in the Sugar Bowl. He made two poor passes against Alabama. Everything else is within standard deviation. No credit for his strong performances against aTm, South Carolina, or Mississippi State, all of which finished in the top 25?