Levine - Cubs going after Frasor and other stuff (Webb)...

[dew1679666265]

To me, it's not just going from the AL East to the NL Central (though that certainly factors in), but just the simple AL to the NL where you get to face the pitcher a couple times each outing. Lilly's numbers got noticably better after switching leagues and while that obviously doesn't mean that Garza will, I think it's likely Garza's numbers would improve also.

 

I'd love to get Garza but like others have said, he's got to come at the right price though.

 

Yeah, I meant to mention the DH issue earlier. That's the biggest reason I think his numbers will improve coming to the Cubs. However, given the huge discrepancy between his ERA and xFIP, I'm thinking his success has been largely dependent on Tampa's defensive acumen. The Cubs haven't been as good defensively - and that likely won't change much in the near term with DeWitt at 2B and Castro at SS - so that will likely negatively affect his actual numbers. I just don't see him being much better than what Wells has been the past couple of years (though I think he'll be better) and I wouldn't pay $5 million and give up good prospects for Wells.

 

Especially if it keeps us from taking a gamble on a guy like Webb or because we make that trade, we don't make the O'Day trade and, thus, sign Jason Frasor.

Edited December 9, 2010 by dew

[ChiCubsFan]

Do you guys think getting Garza would signal not signing Webb? With the Cubs somehow financially strapped for cash, I just don't see both getting acquired, unless we move Fukudome (which I don't want to happen) or someone like Silva without eating much of his contract.

[Guest]

To me, it's not just going from the AL East to the NL Central (though that certainly factors in), but just the simple AL to the NL where you get to face the pitcher a couple times each outing. Lilly's numbers got noticably better after switching leagues and while that obviously doesn't mean that Garza will, I think it's likely Garza's numbers would improve also.

 

I'd love to get Garza but like others have said, he's got to come at the right price though.

 

Yeah, I meant to mention the DH issue earlier. That's the biggest reason I think his numbers will improve coming to the Cubs. However, given the huge discrepancy between his ERA and xFIP, I'm thinking his success has been largely dependent on Tampa's defensive acumen. The Cubs haven't been as good defensively - and that likely won't change much in the near term with DeWitt at 2B and Castro at SS - so that will likely negatively affect his actual numbers. I just don't see him being much better than what Wells has been the past couple of years (though I think he'll be better) and I wouldn't pay $5 million and give up prospects for Wells.

 

Do they have old xFIP numbers wherever you get them? I'm wondering how Lilly's numbers compare to Garza's in that area during his couple years in Toronto.

[dew1679666265]

Do you guys think getting Garza would signal not signing Webb? With the Cubs somehow financially strapped for cash, I just don't see both getting acquired, unless we move Fukudome (which I don't want to happen) or someone like Silva without eating much of his contract.

 

That's part of my concern. There's a very real possibility we can only have one of the two, and if given the choice I'd rather take the guy with elite potential over the guy with limited upside over what he's already done when the price is similar.

 

If we can get both, I'd be more open to it, but the potential prospects we'd give up still scares me.

[Guest]

Multi-post Edited December 9, 2010 by soccer10k

[dew1679666265]

Do you guys think getting Garza would signal not signing Webb? With the Cubs somehow financially strapped for cash, I just don't see both getting acquired, unless we move Fukudome (which I don't want to happen) or someone like Silva without eating much of his contract.

 

That's part of my concern. There's a very real possibility we can only have one of the two, and if given the choice I'd rather take the guy with elite potential over the guy with limited upside over what he's already done when the price is similar.

 

If we can get both, I'd be more open to it, but the potential prospects we'd give up still scares me.

[Guest]

Multi-post Edited December 9, 2010 by soccer10k

[Guest]

Multi-post Edited December 9, 2010 by soccer10k

[Guest]

Multi-post Edited December 9, 2010 by soccer10k

[Guest]

Holy multi-posts Batman.

 

I kept getting an error message when I tried posting this last night.

Edited December 9, 2010 by soccer10k

[MWV]

From fangraphs:

Garza
2008 4.48 
2009 4.21
2010 4.51
Avg. 4.40

Lilly w/Jays
2004 4.60
2005 4.74
2006 4.52
Avg. 4.62

Lilly w/Cubs
2007 4.31
2008 4.14
2009 3.98
Avg. 4.14

Lilly obviously improved upon coming to the NL central, and conventional wisdom may say that Garza should as well, although I don't know that I would expect an average xFIP near 3.92 over his three years of club control.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If Hendry gets all this done, it could be his most productive offseason yet. If we could get O'Day, Id be happy with it,because hes legitamately good, but Frasor would be overkill. With Marmol, Marshall, hopefully Guzman, hopefully a productive Grabow, probably Cashner, and a hole host of big league ready AAAAs, we should be able to piece together a solid pen. Might I again suggest trying our luck with a non tender such as Jenks or Okajima?

[Cubs Fan Dan]

If Hendry gets all this done, it could be his most productive offseason yet. If we could get O'Day, Id be happy with it,because hes legitamately good, but Frasor would be overkill. With Marmol, Marshall, hopefully Guzman, hopefully a productive Grabow, probably Cashner, and a hole host of big league ready AAAAs, we should be able to piece together a solid pen. Might I again suggest trying our luck with a non tender such as Jenks or Okajima?

 

Doubt Jenkes gets away without getting a shot to close, but Okajima would be a good gamble.

[Derwood]

Garza's career #'s vs. AL East:

 

Baltimore: 9-1, 3.03

Boston: 7-4, 3.83

Yankees: 1-4, 4.48

Toronto: 6-6, 2.14

 

In other words, he wasn't getting hammered by his division

[JeffH]

As for the Frasor rumor, I really hope the Chirinos/Dolis for Davis/O'Day trade goes through quickly so Hendry doesn't feel the need to pursue him any further. That'd be a pretty awful signing.

 

It would be even worse since we'd have to trade for him.

[fromthestretch]

http://cubbiescrib.com/2010/12/08/the-chicago-cubs-want-matt-garza/

 

Bruce Levine was on XM Radio tonight with Mike Ferrin and Jeff Nelson, and he told them that the deal on the table does include Cubs top catching prospect Robinson Chirinos, and one of their top shortstop prospects along with two other top prospects in the Cubs organization. Considering that Garza is still under team control for three more seasons, the Cubs would not be overpaying to get Garza.

 

Kind of was hoping to keep Chirinos to use in the deal with Texas to get O'Day and Davis. Maybe one of them would accept one of our other catching prospects instead?

 

This has the potential to be a really, really bad trade.

 

I'm not necessarily opposed to trading Wells for Garza, I just don't think it makes a whole lot of sense. However, I would really prefer not to include Lee in any trade for him. I'm hoping that someone considers Barney one of the Cubs "top shortstop prospects", although I realize that's highly doubtful.

 

The way they're paraphrasing Levine's comments, it leads me to believe that the Cubs would be throwing away quality prospects in this potential deal. I'd actually prefer to deal Wells than overpaying for Garza with prospects.

[Guest]

You eliminate half the point of trading for Garza if you include a valuable part of the MLB team like Wells.

[fromthestretch]

You eliminate half the point of trading for Garza if you include a valuable part of the MLB team like Wells.

 

I agree that it doesn't make sense to do so. But I also don't like the idea of including three "top" prospects for the likes of Matt Garza. For me, it really comes down to which prospects are being discussed. It sounds like Chirinos is included, which is fine. Like a few others have mentioned, I'm hoping that they might consider Lake a top shortstop prospect. I'd also prefer to deal Jay Jackson than McNutt or Archer in a deal like this, although it sounds like Archer is off limits anyway (thankfully).

[shnsajax]

You eliminate half the point of trading for Garza if you include a valuable part of the MLB team like Wells.

 

I agree that it doesn't make sense to do so. But I also don't like the idea of including three "top" prospects for the likes of Matt Garza. For me, it really comes down to which prospects are being discussed. It sounds like Chirinos is included, which is fine. Like a few others have mentioned, I'm hoping that they might consider Lake a top shortstop prospect. I'd also prefer to deal Jay Jackson than McNutt or Archer in a deal like this, although it sounds like Archer is off limits anyway (thankfully).

 

Why are people so in love with Wells? Is it just for cheap decent production?

 

I would not give up Jackson, McNutt, or Archer for Garza. With the direction this team is headed there is no reason to trade any of them.

[jersey cubs fan]

You eliminate half the point of trading for Garza if you include a valuable part of the MLB team like Wells.

 

Not true at all. There really isn't much of a point to trade for him, mostly because this team doesn't need a starter. But if you are going to upgrade one, that's about the only reason to do it.

[Guest]

You eliminate half the point of trading for Garza if you include a valuable part of the MLB team like Wells.

 

Not true at all. There really isn't much of a point to trade for him, mostly because this team doesn't need a starter. But if you are going to upgrade one, that's about the only reason to do it.

 

And Wells is what, the 3rd best starter on the team at the moment?

[fromthestretch]

 

Why are people so in love with Wells? Is it just for cheap decent production?

 

 

No one's saying Wells is great. However, considering how much he makes, how much Garza makes, and their respective levels of production, some feel that it just doesn't make much sense to trade him for Garza, who might be a slight upgrade for about 10x the price.

[jersey cubs fan]

You eliminate half the point of trading for Garza if you include a valuable part of the MLB team like Wells.

 

Not true at all. There really isn't much of a point to trade for him, mostly because this team doesn't need a starter. But if you are going to upgrade one, that's about the only reason to do it.

 

And Wells is what, the 3rd best starter on the team at the moment?

 

And Garza should be a better version of him. Hence the upgrade.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

Why are people so in love with Wells? Is it just for cheap decent production?

 

 

No one's saying Wells is great. However, considering how much he makes, how much Garza makes, and their respective levels of production, some feel that it just doesn't make much sense to trade him for Garza, who might be a slight upgrade for about 10x the price.

 

I'd rather spend a little money than what limited talent the Cubs have in the system.

 

Sometime very soon the Cubs are going to have to get an impact player, somewhere. It won't be through the system. And it probably won't be via free agency So trade bait should be stockpiled for that purpose, not spent for second and third tier players.

[Guest]

You eliminate half the point of trading for Garza if you include a valuable part of the MLB team like Wells.

 

Not true at all. There really isn't much of a point to trade for him, mostly because this team doesn't need a starter. But if you are going to upgrade one, that's about the only reason to do it.

 

And Wells is what, the 3rd best starter on the team at the moment?

 

And Garza should be a better version of him. Hence the upgrade.

 

Yes, and if you don't trade Wells, then you have them both, and you have a much larger upgrade.