Arizona Fall League

[Outshined_One]

10/22

 

1B Vitters 0/4, K

LF Flaherty 1/4

[CubsWin]

10/23

 

Brett Jackson-CF 2 AB, 1 R, 1 H (2B), 1 RBI, 1 K.

Ryan Flaherty-1B 3 AB, 0 R, 3 H (2B), 1 RBI 0 K, 1 BB.

 

Chris Carpenter 1 IP, 0 H, 2 K/0 BB.

Kyle Smit 1 IP, 0 H, 1 K/1 BB.

David Cales 1 IP, 0 H, 0 K/1 BB.

[TruffleShuffle]

brett jackson (CF): 1-3, run, 2 rbi, bb, k

vitters (DH): 0-2, bb, k (was PH for in the 7th)

flaherty (1B): 1-4, rbi, k

muyco (SP): 2.2 ip, 6 h, 7 er, 1 bb, 1 k, 2 hr

[craig]

Kind of discouraging to see a box score with a dozen guys hitting .300+, and have Vitters down at .229 or whatever.

[Guest]

Kind of discouraging to see a box score with a dozen guys hitting .300+, and have Vitters down at .229 or whatever.

at least he's been walking the past few games...

 

I wonder if they're having him focus on it.

[CubsWin]

Muyco has done little to answer the question of why he was sent to the AFL over others.

 

If I'm remembering right, Vitters has drawn walks in each of his last 3 games.

[TruffleShuffle]

Muyco has done little to answer the question of why he was sent to the AFL over others.

 

If I'm remembering right, Vitters has drawn walks in each of his last 3 games.

 

he didn't walk on 10/22... i think it's 3 out of his last 4 or something.

[TruffleShuffle]

vitters and flaherty were among the worst offensive performers tonight for mesa:

 

vitters (1B-3B): 2-6, 2 doubles, 2 runs, 1 rbi

flaherty (LF-1B): 1-5, 2 runs, 2 BB

 

mesa won 18-9.

[scarey]

vitters and flaherty were among the worst offensive performers tonight for mesa:

 

vitters (1B-3B): 2-6, 2 doubles, 2 runs, 1 rbi

flaherty (LF-1B): 1-5, 2 runs, 2 BB

 

mesa won 18-9.

 

Flaherty playing the outfield, eh? That's pretty interesting. He could be a great super utility.

[Outshined_One]

10/27

 

CF Jackson 1/5, R, 2 RBI, 2 K, SB

RP Cales 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K

RP Carpenter 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K

RP Smit 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K

[craig]

Guyer has walked in five straight games, and in 8 of 13 games in mexico. continuing the great average that he's shown at Tennessee and Daytona, hitting .367 thus far. But without power. Only 15 of 18 hits have been singles, unlike in AA where over 45% of his hits were for extra bases.

 

Vitters has walked in 3 of his last 5 games.

 

Probably coincidence, but it's possible that one or both of these guys has some agenda to try taking more pitches.

[craig]

..

Vitters has walked in 3 of his last 5 games.

....

 

Make that 4 in his last 6 games.

 

No sign thus far that he can hit at the same time that he's walking. But maybe there might be some struggle time period and eventually he'll be able to do both at the same time.

[Outshined_One]

10/28

 

3B Vitters 0/4, BB, R, K

[CubsWin]

..

Vitters has walked in 3 of his last 5 games.

....

 

Make that 4 in his last 6 games.

 

No sign thus far that he can hit at the same time that he's walking. But maybe there might be some struggle time period and eventually he'll be able to do both at the same time.

I think he's definitely working on it. The theory of being patient and picking a pitch to drive helping you succeed as a hitter isn't very difficult to understand. I think Josh is well aware of it, especially after seeing AA pitching and struggling to hit it.

[craig]

...

I think he's definitely working on it. The theory of being patient and picking a pitch to drive helping you succeed as a hitter isn't very difficult to understand. I think Josh is well aware of it, especially after seeing AA pitching and struggling to hit it.

 

The concept isn't hard to understand, but the execution doesn't seem that easy. Corey tried it repeatedly but could never make it work. Colvin tried going really patient (for him) for a while, and wasn't driving anything, he couldn't hit at all.

 

As bad as Colvins K/BB ended up this year, I still think that his efforts to be more selective did end up paying off for him in the end. Hopefully Vitters it will also. As great as the theory may be, that doesn't mean a hacker extreme like Vitters can just flip a switch and apply it effectively right away; there may be an extended struggle period before he can both walk and hit at the same time.

 

One reason why I think the theory is great but the execution is often so difficult is that some guys just can't read the pitch very well. Yes, their pitch recognition can perhaps improve somewhat with time, but if the eyes and the brain just can't process fast-moving pitches quickly enough, and the body can't respond, it's just not going to work that well. Vitters like Corey has a short swing; that's supposed to help in that you don't need to commit as early and have more time to see the pitch and figure out whether to swing and where to put the bat. But it doesn't always work.

 

I'm encouraged on Vitters because scouts say they like his swing. But I admit I'm worried that he just doesn't have the tools to be a good hitter. A pretty swing, a short swing, a sometimes powerful swing? Yes, and those are great tools. But he's hitting .222 in AFL where everybody hits .300; he hit .223 in AA; he hit .238 in Daytona in 09. That's a lot of awful-average and awful-OBP stops. Hopefully it's just because he's young, and actually he's a greatly gifted hitter. But it could be a case where he's a bad hitter when he's young because he doesn't have the tools, and he'll be a bad hitter when he's 26 and 29 and 32 because he just doesn't have the stuff to hit well. Too soon to tell when a guy is only 21.

 

But if you can't read the pitch and react accurately to what the pitch is doing, the theory doesn't work. Being patient and picking a pick you can drive assumes that you can both recognize them while in flight, and that you have the reactions to recognize them early enough and then apply a hard contact to where the ball actually is when it reaches the plate. But what if you can't tell fast enough? Corey had power and bat speed and short stroke; but he basically needed to be a guess hitter. When he tried to be patient, he basically would decide before the pitch was thrown that "I'm going to be patient now, I'm not going to swing at this one." Even if it was a fat fastball right in his power zone. Then he'd get behind and say "OK, I'm not going to be patient now, I better swing if it's close", and he'd swing at fastballs at his eyes or sliders in the dirt. The good "plate discipline" guys have the talent to be able to recognize whether it's worth swinging at and then to swing effectively when they do swing, but to do all of that computing and decision-making while a fast-spinning ball is in flight. Not at all easy.

 

I've nervous for Vitters. The guy whiffed 20% of his AB this year. Was he swinging at some bad pitches? Almost certainly. But I'm guessing that it wasn't so often a conscious "I'm going to swing at this bouncing slider" choice; I suspect it was often "Looks like a fastball, I'll whack it" that ended up being the ugly slider.

 

A 20% K-rate isn't inherently that bad. But it might almost be more worrisome for Vitters in that given what a hacker he is, he shouldn't really have the chance to whiff all that often. If you swing at all the first and second-pitch strikes, how often should you even get into a K-count? To have such a high K-rate despite his hacker approach, that may be a red flag.

 

Or maybe not. Perhaps he's just got some growing up to do, get stronger so that he drive the ball without trying to overswing, make some mechanical correction, see more breaking balls, get a little luckier, and maybe he'll turn out the next Aram. I'm hoping.

[Guest]

My impression on why the Cubs have always pushed Vitters faster than we objectively think they should is that they feel he needs to struggle in order to adapt a different mindset at the plate. That if he hits .330 he'll never develop a more patient approach because he doesn't feel the need to. So they promote him to a level where he struggles enough to recognize that need.

 

I have no idea if that theory is correct. I'm not sure I agree with it even if it is. But that's my best guess on why they keep promoting him at the first sign of him mastering a level.

[jersey cubs fan]

My impression on why the Cubs have always pushed Vitters faster than we objectively think they should is that they feel he needs to struggle in order to adapt a different mindset at the plate. That if he hits .330 he'll never develop a more patient approach because he doesn't feel the need to. So they promote him to a level where he struggles enough to recognize that need.

 

I have no idea if that theory is correct. I'm not sure I agree with it even if it is. But that's my best guess on why they keep promoting him at the first sign of him mastering a level.

 

I just think they don't really have a problem with his mindset. They've never fully embraced the concept, have always had a soft spot for aggressive toolsy guys and have a lot riding on him. The way they have promoted him, as soon as he enjoys some success, suggests to me they are looking for any excuse to promote him rather than having some real strategy of forcing him to struggle.

[Guest]

I don't mind Vitters not hitting in the AFL if they told him to concentrate on watching the ball to get a handle on pitches. I actually think it is a very smart idea. If they think he can hit and hit with power, telling him to get in game situations and ONLY swing at something he thinks he can drive is a great idea for a place like the AFL. It's a game situation but it's really just exhibition baseball.

 

I don't have any idea if that's what is happening, but if it is... it's one of the first smart things the organization has done with Vitters since they drafted him.

[Outshined_One]

10/29

 

CF Jackson 0/2, K

1B Flaherty 1/3, R, K

 

10/30

 

2B Flaherty 3/4, BB, R, SB

3B Vitters 2/5, RBI

SP Muyco 4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 2 HR, Balk

RP Carpenter .2 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 2 WP

RP Smit 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K, HBP

[CubsWin]

My impression on why the Cubs have always pushed Vitters faster than we objectively think they should is that they feel he needs to struggle in order to adapt a different mindset at the plate. That if he hits .330 he'll never develop a more patient approach because he doesn't feel the need to. So they promote him to a level where he struggles enough to recognize that need.

 

I have no idea if that theory is correct. I'm not sure I agree with it even if it is. But that's my best guess on why they keep promoting him at the first sign of him mastering a level.

That was my feeling, too. I have no idea if it's correct, but if you allow the Cubs brass to have the same amount of baseball intelligence that we have, it makes the most sense.

 

If goony's right and they're self-serving idiots, then his reason is probably right.

[CubsWin]

I don't mind Vitters not hitting in the AFL if they told him to concentrate on watching the ball to get a handle on pitches. I actually think it is a very smart idea. If they think he can hit and hit with power, telling him to get in game situations and ONLY swing at something he thinks he can drive is a great idea for a place like the AFL. It's a game situation but it's really just exhibition baseball.

 

I don't have any idea if that's what is happening, but if it is... it's one of the first smart things the organization has done with Vitters since they drafted him.

I agree. Unfortunately, all we know for sure is he's walking more. And I'll take that.

[Outshined_One]

Vitters homered again today.

 

11/1

 

3B Vitters 2/5, BB, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (2)

DH Flaherty 3/4, R, RBI, 2B (3)

[TruffleShuffle]

Guyer has walked in five straight games, and in 8 of 13 games in mexico. continuing the great average that he's shown at Tennessee and Daytona, hitting .367 thus far. But without power. Only 15 of 18 hits have been singles, unlike in AA where over 45% of his hits were for extra bases.

 

Vitters has walked in 3 of his last 5 games.

 

Probably coincidence, but it's possible that one or both of these guys has some agenda to try taking more pitches.

 

guyer is in the venezuelan winter league, not mexico.

 

i don't know where else to put this but here are the guys the cubs have participating in that league:

 

guyer, tigres de aragua, venezuela: 20-60, 2 doubles, 1 hr, 9 runs, 7 rbi, 9 bb/11 k, 4 sb/0 cs, .333/.437/.417/.853

marquez smith, tigres: 12-45, 3 doubles, 3 hr, 10 runs, 12 rbi, 7 bb/9 k, .267/.365/.533/.899

tony campana, aguilas de zulia, venezuela: 11-34, 1 double, 1 triple, 5 runs, 0 rbi, 2 bb/3 k, 4 sb/2 cs, .324/.361/.412/.773

marwin gonzalez, leones del caracas: 24-68, 7 doubles, 1 hr, 14 runs, 15 rbi, 10 bb/6 k, 0 sb/1 cs, .353/.436/.500

jason dubois: who cares

 

austin bibens-dirkx, aguilas de zulia, venezuela: 1-2, 2.41 ERA, 4 G, 4 GS, 18.2 ip, 16 h, 8 r, 5 er, 0 hr, 5 bb, 12 k, 1.13 whip

craig muschko, aguilas: 1-1, 5.59 ERA, 3 G, 2 GS, 9.2 ip, 14 h, 6 r, 6 er, 2 hr, 1 bb, 4 k, 1.55 whip

carlos e. rojas, Caribes de Anzoategui: 0-0, 13.50 ERA, 3 G, 0 GS, 3.1 ip, 4 h, 5 r, 5 er, 1 hr, 0 bb, 2 k, 1.80 whip

eduardo figueroa (no idea who he is), caribes: 1-0, 7.04 ERA, 4 G, 1 GS, 7.2 ip, 8 h, 6 r, 6 er, 0 hr, 0 bb, 4 k, 1.57 whip

[javy knows my name]

Vitters homered again today.

 

11/1

 

3B Vitters 2/5, BB, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (2)

DH Flaherty 3/4, R, RBI, 2B (3)

WOOOO .100 isoP

[javy knows my name]

Vitters homered again today.

 

11/1

 

3B Vitters 2/5, BB, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (2)

DH Flaherty 3/4, R, RBI, 2B (3)

WOOOO .100 isoD