Fukudome on the Block

[Sammy Sofa]

We have already. Looking at those 3 months for Fukudome in 2009 doesn't even come close to showing that he sucks in the summer.

 

Unfortunately for you 2009 wasn't the only summer he has played. And his numbers June 2009 were brutal. Looking at his three year splits his June/July/August OPS numbers were .654/.808/.729 and his Sept .603. He clearly wears out and becomes less productive as the year progresses.

 

We'd have to wait and see what he'd end up posting when this season is done to have better idea of how he's trending. While he almost steadily trended downwards in 2008 he bucked that trend the next year and posted two excellent months after a bad June. So far, yes, we're seeing a trend that once he hits June he slumps, but it remains to be seen whether he rebounds like he did last year or has another 2008. It's more likely that we see something similar to last year than 2008. Your intentionally broad final statement simply isn't accurate given the data we have so far. He had one year where he did what you said, but then the next he posted two months later in the year arguably better than the much vaunted first two months people talk about with bated breath.

 

I guess what bothers me the most about this whole discussion is that usually we moan and complain that Lou worries more about salary or veteran status rather than playing the player that is actually producing better. Colvin's OPS so far this year is .955 :shock: and he has been fairly steady throughout. Fukudome went from OPSing .715 in May to .556 in June.

 

I don't have any problem whatsoever about playing a guy that is performing better.

 

Trading Fukudome without having to pick up too much of his salary and/or getting a decent return is more important than playing Colvin right now. You might as well flush those outcomes down the toilet if you effectively bench Fukudome for Colvin.

[dew1679666265]

I don't have any problem whatsoever about playing a guy that is performing better.

 

Trading Fukudome without having to pick up too much of his salary and/or getting a decent return is more important than playing Colvin right now. You might as well flush those outcomes down the toilet if you effectively bench Fukudome for Colvin.

 

Plus, we don't know how Colvin would react to playing everyday. Right now he's being placed into good matchups and getting plenty of rest. If he started everyday, though, we don't know that he could continue his .900+ OPS (very unlikely) pace. For what it's worth, he's had the most plate appearances in June than either other month and he's posted his lowest OPS.

 

Mar/Apr: 53 PA, .965 OPS

May: 30 PA, 1.033 OPS

June: 57 PA, .871 OPS

 

Again, may not mean anything, but it's interesting to note.

[dew1679666265]

Unfortunately for you 2009 wasn't the only summer he has played. And his numbers June 2009 were brutal. Looking at his three year splits his June/July/August OPS numbers were .654/.808/.729 and his Sept .603. He clearly wears out and becomes less productive as the year progresses.

 

If he wore out and got worse as the year progressed, wouldn't his numbers get steadily worse as well? Instead, June is his worst month, but then he rebounds to a pretty respectable .808 OPS in July and then regresses some again, but not as much as June. Then his September numbers plummet again.

 

Looks more streaky than wearing down.

[chopsx9]

Unfortunately for you 2009 wasn't the only summer he has played. And his numbers June 2009 were brutal. Looking at his three year splits his June/July/August OPS numbers were .654/.808/.729 and his Sept .603. He clearly wears out and becomes less productive as the year progresses.

 

If he wore out and got worse as the year progressed, wouldn't his numbers get steadily worse as well? Instead, June is his worst month, but then he rebounds to a pretty respectable .808 OPS in July and then regresses some again, but not as much as June. Then his September numbers plummet again.

 

Looks more streaky than wearing down.

 

 

Except that his "wearing down" months - to this point - have always come in the last 2/3 of the season.

 

Nobody - or very very few anyway - are going to perform following a straight line of progression or regression.

[dew1679666265]

Except that his "wearing down" months - to this point - have always come in the last 2/3 of the season.

 

Nobody - or very very few anyway - are going to perform following a straight line of progression or regression.

 

Kosuke did in his first year. If he had followed that up with a similar line of regression in his second year, I'd agree with you. However, his 2009 July OPS (.926) blew away his May 2009 OPS (.836). And his August OPS was significantly better than his May OPS as well.

 

If his first two seasons as a Cub were very similar and he showed a pattern of getting worse as the year went on in each season, you'd have a point and I'd agree with you. However, he's shown two completely different patterns in two seasons.

 

With only two seasons to work off of and with one showing something different than the other (in 2008 he wore down as the season went on, in 2009 he had two of his best months in the summer), I don't see how you can conclusively say he wears down as the season progresses.

[Sammy Sofa]

Out of curiosity, of those of you who seem "anti-Fukudome" (a broad term, but I have no idea how else to sum it up), do you look at Fukudome's 2009 as being a bad year? He basically performed excellently 4 out of 6 months. Yeah, those other 2 months were really bad, but it seems difficult to dismiss that season when he produced far more than he didn't.

[jersey cubs fan]

Out of curiosity, of those of you who seem "anti-Fukudome" (a broad term, but I have no idea how else to sum it up), do you look at Fukudome's 2009 as being a bad year? He basically performed excellently 4 out of 6 months. Yeah, those other 2 months were really bad, but it seems difficult to dismiss that season when he produced far more than he didn't.

 

And played CF, no?

[Sammy Sofa]

Out of curiosity, of those of you who seem "anti-Fukudome" (a broad term, but I have no idea how else to sum it up), do you look at Fukudome's 2009 as being a bad year? He basically performed excellently 4 out of 6 months. Yeah, those other 2 months were really bad, but it seems difficult to dismiss that season when he produced far more than he didn't.

 

And played CF, no?

 

For most of it, yeah.

[italianocubsfan7]

Out of curiosity, of those of you who seem "anti-Fukudome" (a broad term, but I have no idea how else to sum it up), do you look at Fukudome's 2009 as being a bad year? He basically performed excellently 4 out of 6 months. Yeah, those other 2 months were really bad, but it seems difficult to dismiss that season when he produced far more than he didn't.

 

Pretty close to a bad year, yes. If you compare his .254, 11 HR, and 54 RBI with players that are getting paid as much as he is ($12 mil/yr), especially at the outfield position, Kosuke did not play up to par.

[Sammy Sofa]

Out of curiosity, of those of you who seem "anti-Fukudome" (a broad term, but I have no idea how else to sum it up), do you look at Fukudome's 2009 as being a bad year? He basically performed excellently 4 out of 6 months. Yeah, those other 2 months were really bad, but it seems difficult to dismiss that season when he produced far more than he didn't.

 

Pretty close to a bad year, yes. If you compare his .254, 11 HR, and 54 RBI with players that are getting paid as much as he is ($12 mil/yr), especially at the outfield position, Kosuke did not play up to par.

 

8th best OPS for a CF in all of baseball last year. He generally compared pretty favorably to other CF in the NL last year. Is he overpaid? Sure, but the amount of money one makes doesn't decide whether a player is productive or not, and Fukudome was a productive CF in 2009.

[italianocubsfan7]

Out of curiosity, of those of you who seem "anti-Fukudome" (a broad term, but I have no idea how else to sum it up), do you look at Fukudome's 2009 as being a bad year? He basically performed excellently 4 out of 6 months. Yeah, those other 2 months were really bad, but it seems difficult to dismiss that season when he produced far more than he didn't.

 

Pretty close to a bad year, yes. If you compare his .254, 11 HR, and 54 RBI with players that are getting paid as much as he is ($12 mil/yr), especially at the outfield position, Kosuke did not play up to par.

 

8th best OPS for a CF in all of baseball last year. He generally compared pretty favorably to other CF in the NL last year. Is he overpaid? Sure, but the amount of money one makes doesn't decide whether a player is productive or not, and Fukudome was a productive CF in 2009.

 

I think the $ has some influence on whether to judge productivity, but certainly not even close to the majority. Fukudome did indeed have a high OPS last season. Also, I've seen some debate on here about Fukudome's spot in the order. He hit best in the leadoff spot last year (min 85 at-bats) than any other spot, so that debate can be closed I think.

[Tarver]

Out of curiosity, of those of you who seem "anti-Fukudome" (a broad term, but I have no idea how else to sum it up), do you look at Fukudome's 2009 as being a bad year? He basically performed excellently 4 out of 6 months. Yeah, those other 2 months were really bad, but it seems difficult to dismiss that season when he produced far more than he didn't.

 

Pretty close to a bad year, yes. If you compare his .254, 11 HR, and 54 RBI with players that are getting paid as much as he is ($12 mil/yr), especially at the outfield position, Kosuke did not play up to par.

 

8th best OPS for a CF in all of baseball last year. He generally compared pretty favorably to other CF in the NL last year. Is he overpaid? Sure, but the amount of money one makes doesn't decide whether a player is productive or not, and Fukudome was a productive CF in 2009.

 

How is salary not a factor?

[Tracer Bullet]

Out of curiosity, of those of you who seem "anti-Fukudome" (a broad term, but I have no idea how else to sum it up), do you look at Fukudome's 2009 as being a bad year? He basically performed excellently 4 out of 6 months. Yeah, those other 2 months were really bad, but it seems difficult to dismiss that season when he produced far more than he didn't.

 

Pretty close to a bad year, yes. If you compare his .254, 11 HR, and 54 RBI with players that are getting paid as much as he is ($12 mil/yr), especially at the outfield position, Kosuke did not play up to par.

 

8th best OPS for a CF in all of baseball last year. He generally compared pretty favorably to other CF in the NL last year. Is he overpaid? Sure, but the amount of money one makes doesn't decide whether a player is productive or not, and Fukudome was a productive CF in 2009.

 

How is salary not a factor?

 

in productivity? how is salary a factor?

[dew1679666265]

How is salary not a factor?

 

The amount of money a player makes doesn't change how productive he was. It helps determine whether or not the player was worth the contract (production vs salary), but it doesn't alter his level of productivity.

[Sammy Sofa]

How is salary not a factor?

 

The amount of money a player makes doesn't change how productive he was. It helps determine whether or not the player was worth the contract (production vs salary), but it doesn't alter his level of productivity.

 

But the question wasn't "was he worth his salary?". If a player is overpaid it doesn't create some arbitrary level where normally productive play is now suddenly viewed as unproductive or bad.

 

"Well, normally that OPS would be pretty useful, but since you're paid $12 million it's not."

[dew1679666265]

How is salary not a factor?

 

The amount of money a player makes doesn't change how productive he was. It helps determine whether or not the player was worth the contract (production vs salary), but it doesn't alter his level of productivity.

 

But the question wasn't "was he worth his salary?". If a player is overpaid it doesn't create some arbitrary level where normally productive play is now suddenly viewed as unproductive or bad.

 

"Well, normally that OPS would be pretty useful, but since you're paid $12 million it's not."

 

Exactly.

[Tarver]

A player's salary is certainly a factor if you're trying to move them. If it wasn't he'd be in Boston.

[dew1679666265]

A player's salary is certainly a factor if you're trying to move them. If it wasn't he'd be in Boston.

 

His question had nothing to do with trading Fukudome. N&G asked italianocubfan if he felt Kosuke had a bad year last year. italiano responded that his year was close to bad and then N&G responded back that Kosuke was very productive for a CFer last year even though he was a bit overpaid, but that his salary had nothing to do with whether or not he produced well. You then asked how his salary didn't factor into whether or not he was productive.

 

There was nothing in that particular exchange about trading Kosuke.

[CincyCubsFan]

There was another guy that flourished off the bench in favorable matchups and was a flop as a starter. His name is Mike Fontenot. I hope Colvin doesn't turn out the same way but I get a bad feeling it's gonna be deja vu when he starts playing everyday.

[inari]

It's certainly possible he'll do the same thing as Fontenot, but at this point there's no harm in playing him and finding out.

[Tracer Bullet]

A player's salary is certainly a factor if you're trying to move them. If it wasn't he'd be in Boston.

 

but we were talking productivity, not value or ability to trade him. in the question of whether a player was productive or how productive he was, salary is not a factor.

[dew1679666265]

It's certainly possible he'll do the same thing as Fontenot, but at this point there's no harm in playing him and finding out.

 

The harm is it hurts Fukudome's trade value. Kosuke needs to start to keep his trade value high or we'll have a $13 million player sitting on the bench unmovable.

 

If we can trade Kosuke, however, I have no problem at all giving all the starts to Colvin (similarly to what Castro's done since being called up).

[CUBZ99]

It's certainly possible he'll do the same thing as Fontenot, but at this point there's no harm in playing him and finding out.

 

The harm is it hurts Fukudome's trade value. Kosuke needs to start to keep his trade value high or we'll have a $13 million player sitting on the bench unmovable.

 

If we can trade Kosuke, however, I have no problem at all giving all the starts to Colvin (similarly to what Castro's done since being called up).

 

Fukudome sitting on the bench does more for his trade value, than Fukudome playing and OPSing .499. Plus, he is being outplayed by pretty badly (.889 to .499).

[jersey cubs fan]

It's certainly possible he'll do the same thing as Fontenot, but at this point there's no harm in playing him and finding out.

 

The harm is it hurts Fukudome's trade value. Kosuke needs to start to keep his trade value high or we'll have a $13 million player sitting on the bench unmovable.

 

If we can trade Kosuke, however, I have no problem at all giving all the starts to Colvin (similarly to what Castro's done since being called up).

 

Fukudome sitting on the bench does more for his trade value, than Fukudome playing and OPSing .499. Plus, he is being outplayed by pretty badly (.889 to .499).

 

Fukudome has a 499 OPS? I really haven't been paying attention to this team.

[CUBZ99]

It's certainly possible he'll do the same thing as Fontenot, but at this point there's no harm in playing him and finding out.

 

The harm is it hurts Fukudome's trade value. Kosuke needs to start to keep his trade value high or we'll have a $13 million player sitting on the bench unmovable.

 

If we can trade Kosuke, however, I have no problem at all giving all the starts to Colvin (similarly to what Castro's done since being called up).

 

Fukudome sitting on the bench does more for his trade value, than Fukudome playing and OPSing .499. Plus, he is being outplayed by pretty badly (.889 to .499).

 

Fukudome has a 499 OPS? I really haven't been paying attention to this team.

 

Those OPS #'s were June #s in roughly the same amount of ABs. But yeah, Fukudome had been playing very poorly before his benching.