2010 Cubs Picks & Signings Thread

[davell]

From what I can gather, most of the pundits seem to be agreeing that we had a fairly bad draft. Of course, that means absolutely zilch.

 

I'm intrigued by some of the picks obviously. Enough to give it a B or so actually, but again, it means absolutely zilch.

 

I think when we CAN judge this draft though, is on August 16th. I know I've harped on it plenty already, but I want to see some money spent. It certainly seems like we took some guys we're going to have to "buy". Now, let's do it and then we have to put our trust in Wilken and hope we bought guys worth buying. I really want to see 6 mill or so spent anyway from this draft and based on the guys we took, it looks like that can happen. Basically, I just want to see a true commitment made to the system, especially since our major league team is hamstrung some.

[Outshined_One]

My initial reaction is underwhelmed, but intrigued.

 

Andy Seiler had it half right, I think. Tim Wilken and the Cubs have specific molds for players they want to draft. Coming into this draft, they had a plan and they stuck to it. I don't think Wilken ever drafts defensively (i.e. "We have to take X player because he won't be there when our next pick comes around"). Where he wasn't right was I think the Cubs' FO legitimately thought these guys were the best players available at the time as far as their specific molds were concerned. They did not care what other teams thought about the guys they drafted.

 

The two guys who struck me as emblematic of this draft are RHPs Hayden Simpson and Ben Wells. If Simpson was two inches taller, or if he pitched at a bigger school, he would have been more heralded and would have gotten more consideration in the 1st and 2nd. If the Cubs had drafted him in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, I think people would have liked, even loved, the selection. He has enough present stuff and projection remaining that he could conceivably end up as Oswalt Lite. The problem with the selection was that he conceivably could have been had later, meaning the Cubs could have picked someone else in the 1st and taken him later. In other words, Wilken and company had him as their #1 and didn't care what other teams thought of him.

 

Ben Wells is someone who irked me, although, in fairness, it's hard to get worked up over a 7th round pick. Andy Seiler laid it out pretty well.

 

Absolutely no track record. Had maybe 3-4 starts where he showed anything near pro stuff. I heard of him late but figured teams would let him pass for college.

 

BaseballAmerica similarly echoed those concerns in their writeup on him. Wells clearly was a guy who wasn't scouted much and had some upside. However, considering he was throwing in the low to mid 80s for most of his career, and only recently had a few outings where he worked in the low 90s, you really have to wonder what the future holds for Wells. Those kinds of guys usually aren't early round players. However, for whatever reason, Wells was the top guy on the Cubs' board in the 7th round, and they took him, risks and other teams be damned.

 

Like any draft, it will come down to who the Cubs sign. As it stands for now, a lot of these guys have very intriguing upsides, enough so that I get a sneaking suspicion this draft will turn out to be a lot better than I currently think it is. Cautiously pessimistic would be the way I describe how I feel about this draft, if that makes any sense. I don't like it, but I could easily be proven wrong.

[Guest]

From what I can gather, most of the pundits seem to be agreeing that we had a fairly bad draft. Of course, that means absolutely zilch.

 

I'm intrigued by some of the picks obviously. Enough to give it a B or so actually, but again, it means absolutely zilch.

 

I think when we CAN judge this draft though, is on August 16th. I know I've harped on it plenty already, but I want to see some money spent. It certainly seems like we took some guys we're going to have to "buy". Now, let's do it and then we have to put our trust in Wilken and hope we bought guys worth buying. I really want to see 6 mill or so spent anyway from this draft and based on the guys we took, it looks like that can happen. Basically, I just want to see a true commitment made to the system, especially since our major league team is hamstrung some.

 

The Cubs didn't draft players who were worth a total of $6 million. Most of the overslot guys should be in the Trey McNutt/Nick Struck mode ($100-200k bonuses) with maybe a $500k possibly. And they're not going to sign all the "potentially tough to sign" HS and JC kids who are summer follows, even if they wanted to.

[davell]

From what I can gather, most of the pundits seem to be agreeing that we had a fairly bad draft. Of course, that means absolutely zilch.

 

I'm intrigued by some of the picks obviously. Enough to give it a B or so actually, but again, it means absolutely zilch.

 

I think when we CAN judge this draft though, is on August 16th. I know I've harped on it plenty already, but I want to see some money spent. It certainly seems like we took some guys we're going to have to "buy". Now, let's do it and then we have to put our trust in Wilken and hope we bought guys worth buying. I really want to see 6 mill or so spent anyway from this draft and based on the guys we took, it looks like that can happen. Basically, I just want to see a true commitment made to the system, especially since our major league team is hamstrung some.

 

The Cubs didn't draft players who were worth a total of $6 million. Most of the overslot guys should be in the Trey McNutt/Nick Struck mode ($100-200k bonuses) with maybe a $500k possibly. And they're not going to sign all the "potentially tough to sign" HS and JC kids who are summer follows, even if they wanted to.

 

The reason I brought it up that way is because I figure Simpson gets 1.5 and it wouldn't shock me to see Golden get a mill and Gibbs get kind of close to that possibly. If you're sitting around 3-3.5ish after those 3, I would think that somewhere down the rest of these guys, maybe we have to give out at least 1-2 400/500K bonuses to get the guys to leave college or skip.

[Lefty]

I am just amazed that over a thousand people can be picked, all pretty good baseball players, and only a few will have an impact and a few dozen may even make the Majors. I marvel at how good Major Leaguers are, and I always sense that most fans have no concept of that greatness.

[toonsterwu]

I'll admit I have some concerns on Ben Wells as well, as to whether or not he can maintain that velocity. He does have a good frame, and he'll likely, from what I gather, physically mature a bit more from his 6'4" 215 frame right now, so that's an intriguing body. I'm not that troubled by the pick, though. I like the fact that he has a decent feel for a change right now, fairly good delivery. Will be interesting to follow him in Arizona.

 

As a side note, I just can't find that much more on Eric Rice, other than that he can run it into the mid 90's at times.

[Outshined_One]

BA has Dustin Fitzgerald as signed on their draft database.

[Guest]

BA's review:

 

This will go down as the Hayden Simpson (1) draft. No. 191 in BA's predraft rankings, RHP Simpson went 16th overall after the Cubs saw him throw well twice in a Division II regional in Tampa, running his fastball up to 97 mph. Simpson is still a 6-foot, 170-pounder, and most scouts believe he projects more as a reliever than starter at that size. The Cubs got athletic OFs Reggie Golden (2) and Matt Szczur (5), both lauded for their tools and strong makeup. C Micah Gibbs (3) lacks loud tools but is an excellent receiver who plays with leadership and energy. The Cubs went after in-state talent in the double-digit rounds, taking Northwestern LHP Erik Jokisch (11), who shined in the Cape Cod League last summer, and prep RHP Ryan Hartman (16), known for his hard curveball and projectable frame.

[Guest]

BA has Dustin Fitzgerald as signed on their draft database.

 

Over slot, at that. He's a 19th rounder who got a $110,000 bonus.

[toonsterwu]

He was much better two years ago, but that amount of over-slot does surprise me a tad. His slider and changeup weren't as sharp this past year, and it's hard for me to imagine the kid adding anymore good weight on his frame after the weight he's put on.

 

A tad surprising.

[Guest]

BA:

 

If not for a gloomy weather forecast in mid-May, Simpson might not have become a first-rounder. Wilken had planned to scout three potential first-day picks in Texas, but when rain threatened to wash the weekend out, his wife talked him into coming home to Dunedin, Fla., to be part of their daughter's pre-prom festivities. He paired family time with a scouting trip to the NCAA Division II South Regional at Tampa.

 

Wilken says he saw Simpson throw 92-97 mph in Tampa on Friday, then come back and show the same velocity for four innings the following Monday.

 

"He's got big stuff," says Wilken, who helped build World Series clubs in Toronto and Tampa Bay. "He's been a winner, he's stronger than his size, very athletic. He has four average or plus-average pitches, and command, control and feel to match his stuff for the most part."

 

Ace Angels scout Tom Kotchman also saw Simpson at the regional, and Wilken feared Los Angels might use one of its five choices between Chicago's No. 16 and 65 picks to grab him. He's not worried about the public perception of Simpson, saying his stuff is bigger than his size (6 feet, 175 pounds) and that his track record (35-2, 2.39 in three seasons at Southern Arkansas) doesn't hurt.

 

"Is this guy better than the first 15 picks? I'm not going to tell you that," Wilken says. "We just felt good about it. We think it was the right spot. If things go right, he could advance very quickly."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/column/2010/2610185.html

[toonsterwu]

From what I know of Tom Kotchman, if he's there, that typically means the Angels have strong interest. Of course, it could've been strong interest for some other round.

 

As a random side note, Dustin Fitzgerald reminds me a tad of Mitch Atkins.

[NCCubFan]

BA:

 

If not for a gloomy weather forecast in mid-May, Simpson might not have become a first-rounder. Wilken had planned to scout three potential first-day picks in Texas, but when rain threatened to wash the weekend out, his wife talked him into coming home to Dunedin, Fla., to be part of their daughter's pre-prom festivities. He paired family time with a scouting trip to the NCAA Division II South Regional at Tampa.

 

Wilken says he saw Simpson throw 92-97 mph in Tampa on Friday, then come back and show the same velocity for four innings the following Monday.

 

"He's got big stuff," says Wilken, who helped build World Series clubs in Toronto and Tampa Bay. "He's been a winner, he's stronger than his size, very athletic. He has four average or plus-average pitches, and command, control and feel to match his stuff for the most part."

 

Ace Angels scout Tom Kotchman also saw Simpson at the regional, and Wilken feared Los Angels might use one of its five choices between Chicago's No. 16 and 65 picks to grab him. He's not worried about the public perception of Simpson, saying his stuff is bigger than his size (6 feet, 175 pounds) and that his track record (35-2, 2.39 in three seasons at Southern Arkansas) doesn't hurt.

 

"Is this guy better than the first 15 picks? I'm not going to tell you that," Wilken says. "We just felt good about it. We think it was the right spot. If things go right, he could advance very quickly."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/column/2010/2610185.html

So we can blame Mother Nature if Simpson doesn't pan out.

[Guest]

From what I know of Tom Kotchman, if he's there, that typically means the Angels have strong interest. Of course, it could've been strong interest for some other round.

Or some other player.

[toonsterwu]

who? No one else in the regional was largely considered this high.

[Little Slide Rooter]

BA:

 

If not for a gloomy weather forecast in mid-May, Simpson might not have become a first-rounder. Wilken had planned to scout three potential first-day picks in Texas, but when rain threatened to wash the weekend out, his wife talked him into coming home to Dunedin, Fla., to be part of their daughter's pre-prom festivities. He paired family time with a scouting trip to the NCAA Division II South Regional at Tampa.

 

Wilken says he saw Simpson throw 92-97 mph in Tampa on Friday, then come back and show the same velocity for four innings the following Monday.

 

"He's got big stuff," says Wilken, who helped build World Series clubs in Toronto and Tampa Bay. "He's been a winner, he's stronger than his size, very athletic. He has four average or plus-average pitches, and command, control and feel to match his stuff for the most part."

 

Ace Angels scout Tom Kotchman also saw Simpson at the regional, and Wilken feared Los Angels might use one of its five choices between Chicago's No. 16 and 65 picks to grab him. He's not worried about the public perception of Simpson, saying his stuff is bigger than his size (6 feet, 175 pounds) and that his track record (35-2, 2.39 in three seasons at Southern Arkansas) doesn't hurt.

 

"Is this guy better than the first 15 picks? I'm not going to tell you that," Wilken says. "We just felt good about it. We think it was the right spot. If things go right, he could advance very quickly."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/column/2010/2610185.html

So we can blame Mother Nature if Simpson doesn't pan out.

 

Or his wifes nagging. Sure weve all been there, but more oftne than not, it doesnt lead us to chose a potential 4th round pick in the mid first round.

[Guest]

who? No one else in the regional was largely considered this high.

I haven't a clue, but I don't think it is a safe assumption to think that they were both looking at the same kid to draft in the first round. The guy could have been looking at him but not thinking about drafting him in the first round. He could have been looking at someone else for later in the draft. He could have not been looking for anyone in particular. He might have been on a working vacation like Wilken. Maybe his favorite Tampa strip club wasn't open yet and he needed time to kill. There could be lots of reasons he was watching games.

 

It would be nice it someone asked him, but he might not tell anyway.

[Guest]

Cam Greathouse signing: http://cubs.scout.com/2/976814.html

 

Highlights: Expected to go rounds 4-6. Expects to sign soon.

 

Q: What’s your repertoire?

 

A: I’m going to throw an average fastball, 88 to 92 mph. But my pitch that (impressed) all of the scouts is my curveball. I throw a hard curveball that’s 79 to 83. It’s got a pretty tight break on it and is 12-6. That’s what I got all of my strikeouts on.

 

Q: What other pitches do you throw?

 

A: I’ve been flirting with a changeup. It started off badly during the fall and I couldn’t throw it to save my life. But now that I’ve worked on it, in my last outing, I actually threw about 20 to 30 changeups and had probably 15 to 20 swings-and-misses, so it’s getting there.

[Guest]

Eric Jokisch: http://cubs.scout.com/2/976171.html

 

Q: What kind of pitcher would you describe yourself as?

 

A: I’m definitely not considered a power pitcher. I can throw upper 80s and I hit 91, 92 every once in awhile, but I’m all about keeping (hitters) off balance. I’m not too worried about getting strikeouts as long as I get a nice, easy groundout. That’s more of what I’m looking for.

 

Q: What’s in your repertoire?

 

A: I throw a four-seam and a two-seam fastball like most people, and I throw a circle-change, which is by far my best pitch. I’ve really gotten a good feel for it and I’m not afraid to throw it at any time. I have a curveball that’s been up and down over my Northwestern career. Recently I added a cutter, which has really started being an out pitch for me. I’ve really started to get a good feel for it. The cutter is an out pitch and my changeup I feel (is) good enough to get a strikeout.

[craig]

BA has Dustin Fitzgerald as signed on their draft database.

Over slot, at that. He's a 19th rounder who got a $110,000 bonus.

 

Nice to see. I'm always happier when they like a guy enough to pay him 7th round money than 19th.

 

Not surprising. I think that basically *is slot* for a non-college pick taken after the first ten rounds. Barring strange circumstances, no HS, teenage, or JC picks ever sign for less than $100K. If you think you've got some potential, if you're young so that the clock isn't ticking too badly, and if you're going to be eligible to get drafted next year without lit being as a no-leverage senior, it doesn't make financial sense to ever sign for less than $100K, and I don't think anybody does, for us or anybody else. If you're a college junior, you'll have no leverage next year, and your age-clock is ticking, that's when signing for <$100K makes sense.

 

Between rounds 11-30 we took eleven guys who fit under the HS, JC, sophomore-eligible umbrella, and 16 more in the last 20 rounds. I think $100K is more or less the baseline slot offer for guys like this; it's only really "superslot" relative to that demographic if they're getting significantly beyond $100K. (Watkins at $450, that's obviously superslot; but Fitzgerald, not really, IMO.) My guess is that pretty much all of that goup in rounds 11-30 get the baseline $100K offer, and probably at least a handful if not necessarily all in the last 20 rounds.

 

My guess is that every one of those 11 guys has already been given a standing offer of $100K or better. And i'm guessing that at least some of the 8 college juniors in the 10-30 group have also gotten that much offer, if they seem to have enough upside so that a good senior year could put them into the top 7 rounds. So my guess is that they'd be delighted to have a dozen guys accept the standard $100 K "superslot" that isn't really that super. Fitzgerald is just the first. And obviously at least some of the college guys might get that too. (Coleman, for example, got 6 figures.)

 

Obviously a lot of the guys are probably draft-and-follow. Either they aren't offering $100K to all 27 of the less-than-21-year-olds taken in rounds 11-50. Or else they know pretty well that not too many will take it. I assume in many cases they make either no offer or a low offer that is certain to be declined, and then see how they do in whatever summer league they play in. Then reevaluate whether to offer at all, or how far to improve an offer before the August deadline. If Ben Wells is pitching 92-94 with command in June and July, you're probably going to go well beyond $100K to try to get him. But if he's back to 86 most of the time, likely not.

 

Last year's draft was a little disappointing in that a HS pick like Springfield, taken in the top ten, was signable for so cheap. He's played down to his unusually small signing bonus (for a HSer) thus far. McNutt, of course, is the key to that draft. But we didn't get many of the $100K guys to sign.

 

But this draft has a lower population of 21-and-old college picks than any of Wilken's to date. By a lot. Hopefully we'll get a fair dose of the younger picks signed, and several of them will turn golden for us.

[craig]

Thanks for the Wilken/Simpson, Greahouse, and Jokisch info, cal. Fun to read.

 

The Wilken stuff that Simpson was 92-97 at end of the year, and on short rest as well, that's pretty encouraging. As for Kotchman, he could have been there for Simpson but he could also have been looking at whomever, to pick in round 32 or 26 or whenever. But, if he's there he's there, and he's seeing what Wilken is seeing. So regardless of whom he might have come to watch, if he's seeing Simpson pitching like a polished 4-pitcher 92-97 first rounder, he's going to tell his team that, and he's a respected name. So I can well understand how if Wilken sees the guy as a quality 1st round talent, he should rightly assume that Kotchman is seeing the same qualities and may well persuade his team to use one of their five picks in front of our #65 to get him. Again, I'm not saying Wilken was right to evaluate Simpson as so good, and so BPA-superior that he couldn't afford risking losing him. He might be nuts. But if his evaluation is smart, then the strategy of picking him as BPA at 16 was appropriate.

 

Greathouse sounds pretty interesting. If he was 4th-6th round talent and he's signable in round 8, that's great. At 19, it would seem he's got some room to improve, and while 88-92 isn't special, if you added two mph a 90-94 lefty with a plus curve and a good change could look very good. Who knows. But not having pitched a lot, it would seem that what he will become could be quite different from what he is now.

 

Jokisch sounds not too exciting. But I am a big believer in the cutter, so if he can add an excellent cutter to an excellent change, there are Lilly's and lefty relievers who make careers with that. And while a junior, he's still only 20, so again it's not inconceivable that he might get a little stronger or faster or better. I'd also guess that he's signable, since he seems to understand that he's not a power pitcher and isn't likely to vault into the first round or anything like that even if he returns to the draft next year.

[toonsterwu]

I'm hoping Greathouse can fix his mechanics a bit and add a little velo. With that breaking ball, if he can sit low 90's, he's got a shot.

 

Jokisch seems like a guy that could be fast. I guess, sort of this year's Chris Rusin in some respects.

 

I gotta think that, for the Cubs to draft Wells, they'll plan on spending on him. Although you never know. I'm very curious about some of those arms in the teens/twenties and if we can get them in.

 

I'm also mildly curious on Joe Zeller, who was a college senior. Athletic guy, transitioned to the mound, can get it in the mid-90's and might have a bit more. Not a big guy, though.

[Guest]

With how quickly Fitzgerald signed over slot, you have to imagine he might have had a pre-draft agreement or something close to it.

[craig]

With how quickly Fitzgerald signed over slot, you have to imagine he might have had a pre-draft agreement or something close to it.

 

Part of the scouting process is getting feedback on what a guy will sign for. Anybody know, does a guy need to fill that out 30 times for each team, or is there kind of a shared feedback survey that a prospect fills out and that everybody has access to?

 

I'm sure many players don't know, or might be vague, or might change their minds between giving feedback in March and getting drafted in June.

 

But if a guy has indicated he'll sign for $100K, and then the scout whips out the standard $100K baseline deal, I'd think a guy could sign pretty fast. I guess that's prearranged. But I think since everybody gives at least some feedback on what they'll cost, in a sense any such player who then is offered what he wanted and then really accepts that without deciding to push for more would qualify as a prearrange. In which case "prearrange" would be very common procedure.

 

I suspect there aren't more immediate signings because clubs often try to offer a bit below what the kid indicated he wanted; or because no matter what the kid originally indicated, he ends up pausing or reconsidering or trying for more. Or because things get complicated by the school scholarship values added and stuff like that.

[Guest]

37th rounder Chad Noble turned down a chance at 6-figures last year:

 

One year ago, Noble was contacted by the New York Mets, who said they would offer the Rockwall, Texas, native $125,000 plus an amount to return to school after his professional career. Noble declined the amount and opted to stay to graduate from NU with a degree in economics. In a May interview, Noble said various scouts told him he could bolster his stock in the 2010 draft if he raised his batting average above .320 or .330, after a .297 campaign in 2009.

 

Jokisch thought he'd go higher than round 11.

 

http://www.dailynorthwestern.com/two-wildcats-picked-by-chicago-cubs-in-mlb-draft-1.2274021