2010 Cubs Picks & Signings Thread

[TruffleShuffle]

i remember alex rios was a guy who people thought was an absolutely terrible pick. the jays selected him 19th overall and then signed him for way below slot, and got ripped pretty soundly for that. granted he's not a superstar, but he's turned out to be a better player than all but five of the top 50 picks, and four of those guys (josh hamilton, josh beckett, barry zito, ben sheets) went ahead of him in the top 10.

 

don't know if this was a good move or not, but wilken's off-the-wall picks have frequently turned out a lot better than people expected.

 

alex rios has had a very unspectaculiar career, no?

 

i guess you could call it that, but he has a WAR of 20.0 in his major league career and was very good from 2006-08 and then has been very good this year. but more importantly, he has been better than 45 of the 51 players drafted in the first round and supplemental first round in 1999, even though he received one of the lowest bonuses and the pick was widely panned. if you are picking at #19 overall and you end up with alex rios, you did very well.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

This draft has been pretty nice, to say the least. Harper's brother looks like he has a whole lot of upside. Edited June 9, 2010 by KingKongvs.Godzilla

[davell]

First off, does anyone know what the most money any team has spent on a single year's draft? I'm curious, because the Red Sox took Vitek, Brentz, Ranaudo and Workman, who were all potential 1st rounders. Then you add in Cecchini, who wants over a mill, Coyle, who's going to be very tough to pry away from UNC, Perkins, Price, Leblanc, Duke, and Jaffe and you have the makings of a draft that I would think has to have the potential to break all previous records for money spent. I kind of doubt the Red Sox get ALL of these guys signed, but I do think they'll get most anyway.

 

As for our draft, how many guys so far do we THINK will have to be overslotted? I could see Golden and Gibbs both getting more than where they were picked. But, i could see Simpson signing for less than slot as well possibly. Just by the bios, it seems like Ben Wells, Cameron Greathouse, Ryan Hartman, Cody Cox, Austin Reed, and Dustin Geiger could all be looking for decent bonuses. They all sound pretty intriguing. I'm SURE Brooks Pinckard will be wanting a pretty significant overslot too, but based on the bio, he'd probably be the least likely to get one, if it were up to me anyway.

 

At any rate, I want to see a solid commitment from the Cubs this draft and hope we spend a solid amount getting these guys signed, if need be.

[Outshined_One]

As for our draft, how many guys so far do we THINK will have to be overslotted? I could see Golden and Gibbs both getting more than where they were picked. But, i could see Simpson signing for less than slot as well possibly. Just by the bios, it seems like Ben Wells, Cameron Greathouse, Ryan Hartman, Cody Cox, Austin Reed, and Dustin Geiger could all be looking for decent bonuses. They all sound pretty intriguing. I'm SURE Brooks Pinckard will be wanting a pretty significant overslot too, but based on the bio, he'd probably be the least likely to get one, if it were up to me anyway.

 

At any rate, I want to see a solid commitment from the Cubs this draft and hope we spend a solid amount getting these guys signed, if need be.

 

Adding to your list, Szczur will probably want a decent amount of money to be pried away from his football commitment.

[toonsterwu]

As good as Pinckard's fastball is, I half wonder if we shouldn't try him as a positional player first.

[TruffleShuffle]

the red sox are doing what everyone else should be doing. spending in the draft is the most efficient use of funds in the long-range. if you can go over slot to grab five players at a million bucks and one of them turns out to be a good major league player, you've already gotten more than you paid for.

[Outshined_One]

Round 30 - 1B Karsten Strieby, Arizona Western JC

Round 31 - 1B Benito Santiago (!), Lon Morris College

Round 32 - LHP Brent Ebinger, Lambuth University

[TruffleShuffle]

yeah, that's benito santiago's son. all i can really find about him is that he also played basketball.

[Outshined_One]

Round 33 - RHP Mathew Stites, Jefferson College - Another smallish RHP at 5'11, 170 pounds, he features a very good fb that touches 94 to go with an effective slider and a good curve. He has a strong commitment to Missouri for next season, so he might be a tough sign.

 

Round 34 - 3B Dustin Harrington, East Carolina - Good bat with some power, should stick at 2B or 3B. Got kicked off the East Carolina team for academic reasons earlier in the season. Shouldn't be a difficult sign since he has no leverage.

 

Round 35 - RHP Chris Anderson, Centennial HS, MN - Top HS prospect in Minnesota, but he is likely heading to Jacksonville for college ball. Big guy at 6'3, 200 pounds, but he needs to work on conditioning to maintain the velocity on his 90-91 fastball and also to improve on his curveball. Sounds like an interesting pitcher, but he could really improve his draft slot by going to college and improving his stuff.

 

Round 36 - RHP Tyler Bremer, Yavapi College - Andy Seiler mentioned him as one of the best players remaining on the third day of the draft. He was a standout pitcher for UC Davis, then left to attend Yavapi with his eye on the 2010 draft or, if he's not signed, on Baylor for his junior season. He works in the low 90s.

 

Round 37 - C Chad Noble, Northwestern - Puff piece on him.

 

Round 38 - RHP Jeremy Fitzgerald, Patrick Henry CC

 

Round 39 - RHP Casey Lucchese, College of Charleston

[dew1679666265]

Is it just my lack of knowledge or does it seem like we've drafted a pretty good number of overslot type guys? Seems like I keep seeing so-and-so draftee could be a tough sign.

[Outshined_One]

Is it just my lack of knowledge or does it seem like we've drafted a pretty good number of overslot type guys? Seems like I keep seeing so-and-so draftee could be a tough sign.

 

It's commonplace among HS and CC/JC players, especially in later rounds. Most of those guys have commitments to major programs (or have those aspirations), which they feel would give them a much greater chance of being drafted higher. For example, if Chris Anderson goes off to Jacksonville, sharpens his pitches, and shows that he has the durability needed to maintain his stuff deep into games and deep into the season, he could find himself drafted much higher and get a lot more money.

[RynoRules]

 

Round 26 - Danny Muno, SS, Fresno St

 

Fresno State middle infielder Muno, the younger brother of San Diego infielder Kevin Muno, was the leadoff man and shortstop for the Bulldogs' surprise 2008 College World Series championship team as a freshman. Muno is a very good baseball player with athletic ability, the type of player who plays above his tools. Offensively he profiles best as a two-hole or even leadoff hitter with his good plate discipline and ability to steal some bags. The 5-foot-11, 180-pound Muno is a switch-hitter with well-below-average home run power, but he'll get his fair share of doubles and an occasional triple while profiling as an average hitter thanks to good plate discipline. At Fresno, he had a sterling 160-108 walk-strikeout ratio. Defensively, he is capable of playing either spot up the middle and will be at least an average defender. In some respects he compares with Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts.

 

 

I like the profile on this Muno kid. Good plate discipline as a start. Maybe he fills out and becomes a nice utility IF'er or even a surprisingly productive 2B/SS in the Placido Polanco mold?

Edited June 9, 2010 by RynoRules

[Outshined_One]

Round 40 - LHP Brian Smith, St. Mary Catholic SS, Ont. - Member of the Canada junior team who boosted his stock and notoriety in the Dominican Republic, where he showcased a high 80s fb that touched 90 to go with a solid change and a better than average curveball. Still has plenty of work left to do.

 

Round 41 - RHP Dallas Beeder, Oral Roberts

 

Round 42 - RHP Trey Nielsen, Skyline HS (UT) - Son of former big leaguer Scott Nielsen who recently transitioned from 3B to pitcher. He has good raw tools for pitching, but is largely an unfinished product. He figures to go to Utah, where he'll pitch and play 3B.

 

Round 43 - RHP Danny Winkler, Parkland JC

[dew1679666265]

Is it just my lack of knowledge or does it seem like we've drafted a pretty good number of overslot type guys? Seems like I keep seeing so-and-so draftee could be a tough sign.

 

It's commonplace among HS and CC/JC players, especially in later rounds. Most of those guys have commitments to major programs (or have those aspirations), which they feel would give them a much greater chance of being drafted higher. For example, if Chris Anderson goes off to Jacksonville, sharpens his pitches, and shows that he has the durability needed to maintain his stuff deep into games and deep into the season, he could find himself drafted much higher and get a lot more money.

 

Yeah, I understand the idea of overslot guys, it just seems like we've gotten more of them than normal. It may just show how little I've followed the draft in the past, though.

[Outshined_One]

Excerpts from Jim Callis' chat

 

Ty (Chicago): Hayden who? Please, please explain this to me, and to all Cubs fans. Thanks.

 

Jim Callis: The Cubs saw Hayden Simpson throw 92-97 twice in four days at the D-II World Series, and they think he'll have four average or better pitches, love the makeup, believe he could move quickly. I don't think that was the consensus on him, but the Cubs saw him very well and were afraid another team with multiple picks might draft him before they could pick again. Stunned me, though.

 

Dave (Chicago): How bad was the Cubs draft? Any reason to be excited about Reggie Golden?

 

Jim Callis: Golden was one of the better athletes in the draft. I didn't mind Micah Gibbs in the third round, VG receiver and leader, should hit decently. They got a fine pair of in-state sleepers in Eric Jokisch (11th) and Ryan Hartman (16th). Matt Stites (33rd) is one of my favorite third-day picks so far.

 

Boomer (Chicago): So, Hayden Simpson, he was Tim Wilken's "Best Player Available" and was just afraid he'd be gone by round 2....right? As long as the Cubs drafted "BPA" I'm going to give Wilken the benefit of the doubt.

 

Jim Callis: That is the case yet. Wilken said he had lost a couple of guys in the last couple of drafts and didn't want to take the chance this year. This was not a signability pick.

[Outshined_One]

Andy Seiler has a chat ongoing if you have questions. I'll just edit things in as this goes along.

 

Outshined_One: How would you evaluate the Cubs' draft so far?

 

Andy: This is a bit of a trick question for me, because they essentially draft on the principals I oppose. They essentially draft based on limiting themselves to a very particular pool of players that fit their own "mold," then draft based on who might get drafted before they pick again, which is essentially defensive drafting to me. I honestly don't like their draft, and it's in the bottom third for me, but they did get good value for Golden and Gibbs and Kurcz, so I don't want to say that they don't know what they're doing, because they had a plan and executed it.

 

Tim Wilken: What's wrong with me?

 

Andy: Nothing. Just don't have the same philosophies for the draft that I do.

 

jfish2610: Can you list out a few of what you feel were the best/worst drafts and best/worst picks? As most have been saying, thank you so much for all the work you put into the draft guide. I still haven't gotten too far in it but it's a great reference. Thanks again Andy.

 

Andy: Best are answered above near the top. Worst are the Mets, Cubs, Phillies, Yankees. Four big-market clubs, which is not good. I'll get to the picks in draft reviews.

 

Hayden Simpson: Will I justify my draft spot at some point?

 

Andy: Quite possible, though now he's going to be underneath this bad microscope where a few ignorant fans will always be hating him irrationally. It's a shame that the Cubs put him in this position.

 

And, because I loves me some schadenfreude:

 

Michael: The Mets have apparently decided to draft on the cheap despite not having a Second Round pick. Anybody that is signable that you see as potential sleepers for the rightfully annoyed Mets fans?

 

Andy: I feel bad, because I don't have good news for you

[Guest]

Andy Seiler has a chat ongoing if you have questions.

 

Outshined_One: How would you evaluate the Cubs' draft so far?

 

Andy: This is a bit of a trick question for me, because they essentially draft on the principals I oppose. They essentially draft based on limiting themselves to a very particular pool of players that fit their own "mold," then draft based on who might get drafted before they pick again, which is essentially defensive drafting to me. I honestly don't like their draft, and it's in the bottom third for me, but they did get good value for Golden and Gibbs and Kurcz, so I don't want to say that they don't know what they're doing, because they had a plan and executed it.

 

Sounds like Andy and I have a lot in common.

[Guest]

Is it just my lack of knowledge or does it seem like we've drafted a pretty good number of overslot type guys? Seems like I keep seeing so-and-so draftee could be a tough sign.

 

It's commonplace among HS and CC/JC players, especially in later rounds. Most of those guys have commitments to major programs (or have those aspirations), which they feel would give them a much greater chance of being drafted higher. For example, if Chris Anderson goes off to Jacksonville, sharpens his pitches, and shows that he has the durability needed to maintain his stuff deep into games and deep into the season, he could find himself drafted much higher and get a lot more money.

 

Yeah, I understand the idea of overslot guys, it just seems like we've gotten more of them than normal. It may just show how little I've followed the draft in the past, though.

 

But keep in mind these aren't overslot guys who deserve upper-6 figures or even 7 figures. These are guys who should be bought out for $50 - $200k and a lot of them are just more interested in college because they know they need to grow/mature/improve before they can get the bonuses they want (which is why they have sometimes have outlandish demands). The Cubs will likely follow a few of these guys in the summer to see if they're worth their tough sign status.

[dew1679666265]

Is it just my lack of knowledge or does it seem like we've drafted a pretty good number of overslot type guys? Seems like I keep seeing so-and-so draftee could be a tough sign.

 

It's commonplace among HS and CC/JC players, especially in later rounds. Most of those guys have commitments to major programs (or have those aspirations), which they feel would give them a much greater chance of being drafted higher. For example, if Chris Anderson goes off to Jacksonville, sharpens his pitches, and shows that he has the durability needed to maintain his stuff deep into games and deep into the season, he could find himself drafted much higher and get a lot more money.

 

Yeah, I understand the idea of overslot guys, it just seems like we've gotten more of them than normal. It may just show how little I've followed the draft in the past, though.

 

But keep in mind these aren't overslot guys who deserve upper-6 figures or even 7 figures. These are guys who should be bought out for $50 - $200k and a lot of them are just more interested in college because they know they need to grow/mature/improve before they can get the bonuses they want (which is why they have sometimes have outlandish demands). The Cubs will likely follow a few of these guys in the summer to see if they're worth their tough sign status.

 

That's a good point I hadn't thought about.

[Tony Thomas]

Round 42 - RHP Trey Nielsen, Skyline HS (UT) - Son of former big leaguer Scott Nielsen who recently transitioned from 3B to pitcher. He has good raw tools for pitching, but is largely an unfinished product. He figures to go to Utah, where he'll pitch and play 3B.

I'll look forward to watching him next year at Utah. He seems like he could turn into a pretty decent player.

 

And CJ Cron from the University of Utah who will be drafted next year is a beast. He plays Catcher hit .431 with 20 home runs only stuck out 23 times and only made 4 errors the whole year. I don't think their is any way he isn't a first round pick next year. He is the only player to get 3 hits off of Strasburg in one game.

[toonsterwu]

I wonder if anyone has any idea on how signable Danny Winkler is? I'd love to get that fastball.

 

I remember Bremer was only working upper 80's for awhile, so I don't know how consistent he can get it into the low 90's. He does have a good curveball and changeup.

 

I think Andy Seiler is off on that one. About the only pick you could claim as a "defensive pick" is that of Hayden, and I honestly don't think that was a defensive pick. I honestly think the Cubs thought he was the best player on the board, and didn't draft him because he wasn't going to be there at 66. I mean, Golden wasn't a defensive pick. Same with Gibbs.

 

Wonder what the chances of getting Chris Anderson signed are.

 

As for some day 2 pick thoughts, I'm intrigued with Danny Muno as a possible Mike Fontenot/Josh Harrison type of undersized MI that has a bit more pop than expected and has decent-solid discipline. Loosen was very good in 2009, IIRC. Wonder if that may lead him back to school. I'd love to get him in. Nice 4 pitch arsenal. Really hoping we can get Geiger in. Let the kid play 3rd if he wants.

 

Cody Cox was only touching low 90's, sitting mostly high 80's. He's projectable, but if the numbers climb up, I think this is one you let go. Fitzgerald is intriguing enough, with a low 90's fb and solid slider and change. Feels like the kid might sign. I'm really hoping we can get Hartman, Richardson, Reed, and Welsl in. Seems like a nice foursome of arms.

 

Overall, I don't love this draft, but I think it's solid enough. The one thing Andy is right about is that we draft based on our mold, and I'm okay with that. I do wish that, at some point, we would have a 2007 draft again (heavier on positional players). I feel like that would give the system a nice balancing out.

[Outshined_One]

Round 44 - 1B Jacob Rogers, St. Petersburg JC

Round 45 - C Devon Austin, Coeur d'Alene HS (ID)

Round 46 - RHP Jerad Eickhoff, Olney Central CC

 

Round 47 - RHP Clayton Crum, Klein HS (TX) - Ohio State recruit who was the #2 starter behind 1st round selection Matt Purke last year. He hit 94 on the gun, but then went and blew out his elbow, leading to Tommy John surgery.

 

Round 48 - 3B Eric Paulson, Fremd HS (IL)

Round 49 - RHP Bryce Shafer, Valparaiso

Round 50 - SS Eric Jagielo, Downers Grove North HS (IL)

[Outshined_One]

That wraps it up for the Cubs' draft. Thanks to everyone who contributed over the past few days!

 

We'll now use this thread to report on signings, guys who turn down the Cubs, scouting reports, and the like. The signing deadline for players with college eligibility remaining is August 16th.

[TysonCBulls423]

Sweet, I know a Cubs draft pick (13rd rounder Pierre LePage)!!!

[toonsterwu]

Sweet. I'm intrigued with LePage. He'll have to work hard, though, considering the MI depth in the system. I don't recall off the top right now, but has he played any CF before?

 

__________________________

 

So ... now that we've had a few hours to digest the draft, I'm wondering what people's initial reactions are (on the totality of the draft, and not just Hayden Simpson). I think I'm more intrigued than I was with last year's draft, but I'm not excited about it. Really hoping that we can get a lot of the HS arms signed. Without counting it up, it feels like we drafted more HS than in year's past (but I could be wrong). I'm glad we took a gamble on some power, and am hopeful Karsten Stribey and Dustin Geiger sign. If I had to give it a grade, I'd say it's a B-/B type draft if the Cubs sign some of key HS guys.