Trade Lee to the Angels?

[davell]

Unfortunately, economics would play a part in trading DLee right now, even if he DID waive his NTC. I just don't see teams lining up to pay off the rest of this year's salary(right now it's around 8 mill left or so) to get a guy who has not exactly had a strong season to date. I think his numbers will go up, but I figure the Angels will make a move before this is the case.

 

My best case scenario for us trading Lee, would be for us to fall completely out of the race, to where Hendry can't justify adding anything, but Lee gets hot between now and the deadline. Come the end of July, a team will only be taking on 4 mill or so and he'd probably be willing to move on to a contender at that point as it is. Hopefully, we'll take what we can get at that stage, as I see it pretty unlikely we'd offer arbitration to him.

 

In the end though, I think that us signing him to a 2 year extension at less money, is the most likely ending to this.

[questionmarkgrace]

Unfortunately, economics would play a part in trading DLee right now, even if he DID waive his NTC. I just don't see teams lining up to pay off the rest of this year's salary(right now it's around 8 mill left or so) to get a guy who has not exactly had a strong season to date. I think his numbers will go up, but I figure the Angels will make a move before this is the case.

 

My best case scenario for us trading Lee, would be for us to fall completely out of the race, to where Hendry can't justify adding anything, but Lee gets hot between now and the deadline. Come the end of July, a team will only be taking on 4 mill or so and he'd probably be willing to move on to a contender at that point as it is. Hopefully, we'll take what we can get at that stage, as I see it pretty unlikely we'd offer arbitration to him.

 

In the end though, I think that us signing him to a 2 year extension at less money, is the most likely ending to this.

 

 

are you kidding a 2 year extension? off of this year? He is in Jermaine Dye territory right now. He gets no more than a 1 year 3-5 million dollar deal next year and hopefully not from us.

 

I too find it hard to believe that the Angles want him. But if they show any interest I say jump pay whatever they want and maybe get a decent prospect back. I wouldn't mind seeing Nady take over at first he's starting to heat up and he at least had a bonefide excuse for starting out slow.

[biittner77]

Nady to the Angels makes a lot more sense considering there are a lot fewer obstacles to the deal. What would the Angels be willing to give up for Nady? Do they have a hard throwing low A pitcher with shoulder problems that Hendry is targeting?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

He is in Jermaine Dye territory right now.

Jermaine Dye is in Jermaine Dye territory because Jermaine Dye is an outfielder who can't play the outfield and teams aren't looking for a 53 year old DH. Jermaine Dye.

[ctcf]

He is in Jermaine Dye territory right now.

Jermaine Dye is in Jermaine Dye territory because Jermaine Dye is an outfielder who can't play the outfield and teams aren't looking for a 53 year old DH. Jermaine Dye.

 

Jermaine Dye?

[davell]

Unfortunately, economics would play a part in trading DLee right now, even if he DID waive his NTC. I just don't see teams lining up to pay off the rest of this year's salary(right now it's around 8 mill left or so) to get a guy who has not exactly had a strong season to date. I think his numbers will go up, but I figure the Angels will make a move before this is the case.

 

My best case scenario for us trading Lee, would be for us to fall completely out of the race, to where Hendry can't justify adding anything, but Lee gets hot between now and the deadline. Come the end of July, a team will only be taking on 4 mill or so and he'd probably be willing to move on to a contender at that point as it is. Hopefully, we'll take what we can get at that stage, as I see it pretty unlikely we'd offer arbitration to him.

 

In the end though, I think that us signing him to a 2 year extension at less money, is the most likely ending to this.

 

 

are you kidding a 2 year extension? off of this year? He is in Jermaine Dye territory right now. He gets no more than a 1 year 3-5 million dollar deal next year and hopefully not from us.

 

I too find it hard to believe that the Angles want him. But if they show any interest I say jump pay whatever they want and maybe get a decent prospect back. I wouldn't mind seeing Nady take over at first he's starting to heat up and he at least had a bonefide excuse for starting out slow.

 

 

I'm not saying this is what I want, just what I think is the most likely scenario from the Cubs standpoint. I do think he'll end up with relatively solid numbers by the end of the year. But, it doesn't matter to me, because I don't want him back.

 

I would rather us keep Nady and use him at 1B fulltime next year until AGON comes on the market around midseason. If that doesn't happen, he and Fielder will be free for us to bid on after the end of next year anyway. I'm HOPING that Ricketts is looking at this as his first realistic shot at making a true splash for us.

[Cubswin11]

He is in Jermaine Dye territory right now.

Jermaine Dye is in Jermaine Dye territory because Jermaine Dye is an outfielder who can't play the outfield and teams aren't looking for a 53 year old DH. Jermaine Dye.

That and he wants a guaranteed starting spot and last I heard a contract in the $10m range.

[SouthSideRyan]

He is in Jermaine Dye territory right now.

Jermaine Dye is in Jermaine Dye territory because Jermaine Dye is an outfielder who can't play the outfield and teams aren't looking for a 53 year old DH. Jermaine Dye.

That and he wants a guaranteed starting spot and last I heard a contract in the $10m range.

 

And he hit like .081 in the 2nd half next year.

[JGalt73]

Rob Neyer doesn't believe Lee would net much (but salary relief):

 

On a scale of 1 to 10, here are Derrek Lee's last six seasons (including this one): 10-2-6-5-7-2. At $13 million per season, you want to see at least a 6 every season, which means Lee's been worth his salary just half the time. Still, he wouldn't be a terrible gamble if the Cubs are willing to throw some money into the deal. As usual, the "winner" depends on who else is included; I certainly wouldn't give up more than one Grade B prospect to get Derrek Lee (and considering how poorly he's played this spring, that's probably too much).

 

Is Derrek Lee better than some sort of platoon involving Mike Napoli and Mike Ryan, with Robb Quinlan occasionally tossed in there for old times' sake? Probably. But not by a lot.

[UMFan83]

I would give Lee more than a 7/10 for last year.

 

I'd give him a solid 8/10 for .306/.393/.579/.972 with at least average D.

[erik316wttn]

He is in Jermaine Dye territory right now.

Jermaine Dye is in Jermaine Dye territory because Jermaine Dye is an outfielder who can't play the outfield and teams aren't looking for a 53 year old DH. Jermaine Dye.

That and he wants a guaranteed starting spot and last I heard a contract in the $10m range.

 

I'm shocked, SHOCKED I tell you that he hasn't hired a 2nd agent just to field the barrage of phone calls that he must get every day from MLB teams.

[TheDude]

Rob Neyer doesn't believe Lee would net much (but salary relief):

 

On a scale of 1 to 10, here are Derrek Lee's last six seasons (including this one): 10-2-6-5-7-2. At $13 million per season, you want to see at least a 6 every season, which means Lee's been worth his salary just half the time. Still, he wouldn't be a terrible gamble if the Cubs are willing to throw some money into the deal. As usual, the "winner" depends on who else is included; I certainly wouldn't give up more than one Grade B prospect to get Derrek Lee (and considering how poorly he's played this spring, that's probably too much).

 

Is Derrek Lee better than some sort of platoon involving Mike Napoli and Mike Ryan, with Robb Quinlan occasionally tossed in there for old times' sake? Probably. But not by a lot.

This is what is so ridiculous about analysts, even one as good as Neyer. They need to stop using immediate past performance as a future indicator. Baseball analysts need a crash course in put/call trending of the market to do their jobs. It's also convenient to throw out the injury year as a 2. For the rest of this season, Lee would be expected to regress to his mean (Neyer's 5/6), which would indicate a much stronger second half of the season and boost his trade value, not diminish it.

 

I imagine last year after April Neyer's opinion would have been same. Yet he went from a 2 to 7 by season's end, using his charting. That means the team trading for him would have gotten all the good and none of the bad. Not sure why this year is different.

[questionmarkgrace]

Dude, trending in baseball is only applicable in three year chunks at the most and probably most accurate ing 3-4 month samples that predict short term behavior. The sport is too inconsistent, the slightest injury can derail a career (Derosa is a recent example) some guys can just find it (Bautista) others lose it quickly (Dye).

 

The fact that D-Lee has become more and more inconsistent since the year he went crazy is a testament to the inaccuracy of long term trends. Also, when you factor age say 33+ into any equation seeking to explain a player's performance the trend is a downward one overall, most lose a bit and then fall off quickly in their mid to upper 30's. As for the difference in Neyers ratings, taking into account, increasing inconsistency, age, and recent performance that explains the low rating.

Remember D-Lee didn't hit this poorly for this long last year basically thats the difference. He is also on pace for 160 k's his worst since he was with the pads, and his lowest obp, avg, and slugging in many years. Not good. So in general recent performance is a better indicator of short term performance. Sure there are outliers Big Papi in April vs May but we are 1/3 of the way into the season and while he will no doubt have a good stretch he should not be the three hitter on a 140 million dollar team.

[Rob]

According to WAR, DLee was the 19th most valuable player in baseball last season, ahead of guys like Pablo Sandoval, Jayson Werth, Ryan Howard, Matt Kemp, Jason Bay, Dustin Pedroia, Shin-soo Choo, Ichiro Suzuki, Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Ian Kinsler, etc...

 

I don't think that's a "7" season.