Not much respect for Z

[Guest]

Gorzelanny has a 3.63 FIP in nearly 100 IP the last 2 years. He's awesome.

[Backtobanks]

Eh, I actually wouldn't mind seeing the Cubs doing either move. Getting rid of Zambrano's deal and then letting Lilly and Lee walk after this season would be huge. I don't think it would be too difficult to move Fukudome for the last year of his deal, too. That would put the Cubs in much better shape financially.

 

I understand the salary relief issue, but I can't see Ricketts spending all that money on the Cubs and then go into a rebuilding mode for 3-4 years, especially with the Black Hawks going for the Stanley Cup, the Bulls rumored to be after LeBron, and the new offensive-minded Martz coaching the Bears.

 

I don't know for sure that I'd do either of those moves (I'd have to look more closely at Quentin), but trading Z for salary relief doesn't mean we're going into a 3-4 year rebuilding mode. Actually, getting relief from Z, Lee and Lilly's salaries might actually help us contend within the next 2 years since we'd be able to go after some high-salary players (somebody like Fielder).

 

 

So we're going to dump salary just to pour it back into some other long term/high price FA? Players like Fielder and Cliff Lee are going to cost you $30 million or more per year for 4-5 years, so then you're locked into old, expensive players that will have reduced production. Plus Fielder has the type of body that won't age well.

 

you think cliff lee and prince fielder are going to get 30 million a year?

 

I meant together. Actually they will probably get more than $30 million per year together.

[bukie]

Gorzelanny has a 3.63 FIP in nearly 100 IP the last 2 years. He's awesome.

But he's from the Pirates, and Pirates all are terrible.

[Banedon]

Gorzelanny has a 3.63 FIP in nearly 100 IP the last 2 years. He's awesome.

But he's from the Pirates, and Pirates all are terrible.

 

I mean, look at A-ram. We trade for him and BOOM.....7 years later he sucks.

[soapy]

Gorzelanny has a 3.63 FIP in nearly 100 IP the last 2 years. He's awesome.

 

Which is why I'm worried that he'll be the one sent to the pen instead of Silva.

 

What is Gorzelanny's contract situation? I know he was arb-eligible this year and signed for $800,000 or something. When does he reach free agency? It would be great to get some (relatively) cheap production in the rotation (in addition to Wells).

[jersey cubs fan]

Gorzelanny has a 3.63 FIP in nearly 100 IP the last 2 years. He's awesome.

 

Which is why I'm worried that he'll be the one sent to the pen instead of Silva.

 

What is Gorzelanny's contract situation? I know he was arb-eligible this year and signed for $800,000 or something. When does he reach free agency? It would be great to get some (relatively) cheap production in the rotation (in addition to Wells).

 

Cots lists his service time at 2.16 years, which would leave him a couple years shy of free agency after this season, if accurate. He spent all of 2007 in the majors, half of 2008 and half of 2009. He had a cup of coffee in 2005, and a full pot in 2006. So I'm not sure if that's all that accurate, but I think they might have control over him this coming offseason.

[soapy]

Thanks, goony. Cots is blocked at work and I meant to check that after the game last night and forgot.

[dew1679666265]

So we're going to dump salary just to pour it back into some other long term/high price FA? Players like Fielder and Cliff Lee are going to cost you $30 million or more per year for 4-5 years, so then you're locked into old, expensive players that will have reduced production. Plus Fielder has the type of body that won't age well.

 

Let's say, for example, we trade Z's contract and let Lee and Lilly walk. That's $17 mil in savings for Z, $13 mil in savings from Lee and $12 mil in savings from Lilly. Their respective ages are 28, 34 and 34.

 

Let's then say we sign Prince Fielder (roughly $18 mil for 5 years, say), Jorge De La Rosa (roughly $10 mil for 3 years, say) and Jose Reyes (roughly $15 mil for 4 years, say, with him or Castro playing second). Their respective ages are 26, 29 and 27.

 

We've likely improved the current team overall and we've added about $1 million in salary. Fielder's not a guy who's going to age well, but if we give him a 5 year contract at 27, we likely have him for at least 3 productive years, probably more. De La Rosa will be 30, but has been very productive (his FIP has improved each of the past three years to 3.36 so far this year) and we could probably get him for 3-4 years and 10-12 million – a Lilly-esque bargain. Reyes would be a huge improvement over Theriot and, while he would cost more, we'd have him through his age 32-33 year and he'd bridge the gap nicely to, hopefully, Hak-Ju Lee.

 

Now, these names are just examples and I'm not saying they'll all definitely be available, but the point is to show that we could let some older players go and bring in younger players and not have to go into a long-term rebuilding process. I'm not saying we should trade Z, but if we could free up his salary and get a decent young player (Quentin maybe), it gives us more options on building more of a long-term contender going into next season.

[pccubfan]

We have one of the worst pitching staffs in the majors and we are talking about trading away our best pitcher? I don't get it. If we are gonna trade anyone I hope it's Ted Lilly.

 

The starters have performed well to date, but I don't think it would surprise many on here if a couple of guys fell off a cliff soon. This staff could go from being a very good staff statistically to being a very bad staff statistically pretty quickly.

[dew1679666265]

We have one of the worst pitching staffs in the majors and we are talking about trading away our best pitcher? I don't get it. If we are gonna trade anyone I hope it's Ted Lilly.

 

The starters have performed well to date, but I don't think it would surprise many on here if a couple of guys fell off a cliff soon. This staff could go from being a very good staff statistically to being a very bad staff statistically pretty quickly.

 

I don't think it's all that likely that our staff becomes very bad. Dempster and Lilly are likely to be good to very good the rest of the year, Z is likely to at least be solid or better when he gets back into the rotation and Wells and Gorzelanny have now been solid or better for a year and a half or more. Even if Silva reverts to his old self, we have five starters who are, likely, at worst decent arms.

[Fred Hornkohl]

We have one of the worst pitching staffs in the majors and we are talking about trading away our best pitcher? I don't get it. If we are gonna trade anyone I hope it's Ted Lilly.

 

The starters have performed well to date, but I don't think it would surprise many on here if a couple of guys fell off a cliff soon. This staff could go from being a very good staff statistically to being a very bad staff statistically pretty quickly.

 

While I don't realistically expect Carlos Silva to continue pitching all season the way he has these first two months, I don't expect him to "fall off a cliff" either. The extreme outcomes rarely occur, and reality generally falls somewhere in between. Suppose, for the sake of your argument, that Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny did both fall off of your proverbial cliff. Just how much time do think would elapse before they are replaced by some combination of Zambrano, Marshall, and a couple of the minor leaguers who almost ready for the big show ?? The resulting decline, statistically speaking, is not from very good to very bad, but more likely, from very good to good.

[pccubfan]

I don't think it's all that likely that our staff becomes very bad. Dempster and Lilly are likely to be good to very good the rest of the year, Z is likely to at least be solid or better when he gets back into the rotation and Wells and Gorzelanny have now been solid or better for a year and a half or more. Even if Silva reverts to his old self, we have five starters who are, likely, at worst decent arms.

 

I agree on Dempster and Lilly. Wells was never good enough to be considered a prospect, it wouldn't surprise me to see him get significantly worse. Gorzelanny is about a year removed from being demoted to the minors by the Pirates, significant reduction in his production shouldn't be considered a surprise. Zambrano is a concern to me. He appears to be succumbing to the huge number of innings that have been put on his arm.

 

While the starters could continue to produce all year long, it certainly would not surprise me to see a major drop in production the remainder of the season.

[jersey cubs fan]

I agree on Dempster and Lilly. Wells was never good enough to be considered a prospect, it wouldn't surprise me to see him get significantly worse. Gorzelanny is about a year removed from being demoted to the minors by the Pirates, significant reduction in his production shouldn't be considered a surprise. Zambrano is a concern to me. He appears to be succumbing to the huge number of innings that have been put on his arm.

 

Wells was never considered a top prospect, but his performance was solid and he's remained solid in the majors. Gorzelanny being demoted by Pittsburgh doesn't change the fact that he was a very successful minor league pitcher and has been a solid major leaguer. He's also just 27, the fact that he had to spend some time in AAA at 26 doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot. And while Zambrano may not be the same guy he was at his peak, he's still remained a quality pitcher. I think it's quite possible that they get worse, but the presence of legit replacements and the stability of some guys who have been solid for a while, should prevent them from falling off the cliff. As others have pointed out, they don't have to stick with any one of these guys if they start crapping the bed.

[pccubfan]

 

Silva has been awful the last couple years. If he reverts to that form, he would be falling off a cliff, in my opinion.

 

 

That's absolutely true. However, three of the previous four years in Minnesota he was very good. So tell me then, which set of numbers represents the "real" Carlos Silva ??? Remember, all the projections that the statistically inclined crowd have come up with do have predictive value, but they are not absolute.

 

Personally, I don't know what Carlos Silva is going to do the rest of the season, and I'm not in the business of running a baseball team. I'm a fan, and for all intents and purposes, my team is stuck with Carlos Silva. So, I'm inclined to rejoice when he does well, and regret when does not.

 

 

Long live Cy Silva !!!

 

 

edit: I apologize to pscubsfan. In attempting to quote his post I accidently hit the edit button, then away most of his post. I am sorry.... Fred Hornkohl

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't understand the talk about Z like he was nothing but horrendous in his starts this year. You subtract that disastrous opening day and he was more than serviceable as a starter.

[Guest]

Silva's FIP in recent years. Which one is the aberration?

 

2007: 4.57

2008: 4.64

2009: 5.53

2010: 4.12

[Ding Dong Johnson]

2010?

[pccubfan]

I don't understand the talk about Z like he was nothing but horrendous in his starts this year. You subtract that disastrous opening day and he was more than serviceable as a starter.

 

Well, he's only had four starts this year, so eliminating one start is significant.

 

In his three other starts he's had good K numbers, but has allowed too many baserunners and thrown too many pitches.

 

Two quality starts one taking him 119 pitches to go six innings.

 

His contract probably unfairly plays into the impression. Hearing the Cubs management stating the move to the pen was an attempt to add mph to the fastball doesn't help the perception either.

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't understand the talk about Z like he was nothing but horrendous in his starts this year. You subtract that disastrous opening day and he was more than serviceable as a starter.

 

Well, he's only had four starts this year, so eliminating one start is significant.

 

In his three other starts he's had good K numbers, but has allowed too many baserunners and thrown too many pitches.

 

Two quality starts one taking him 119 pitches to go six innings.

 

His contract probably unfairly plays into the impression. Hearing the Cubs management stating the move to the pen was an attempt to add mph to the fastball doesn't help the perception either.

 

If it takes him 119 pitches, it takes him 119 pitches. The idea that he shouldn't be in the starting rotation is dumb.

[pccubfan]

I don't understand the talk about Z like he was nothing but horrendous in his starts this year. You subtract that disastrous opening day and he was more than serviceable as a starter.

 

Well, he's only had four starts this year, so eliminating one start is significant.

 

In his three other starts he's had good K numbers, but has allowed too many baserunners and thrown too many pitches.

 

Two quality starts one taking him 119 pitches to go six innings.

 

His contract probably unfairly plays into the impression. Hearing the Cubs management stating the move to the pen was an attempt to add mph to the fastball doesn't help the perception either.

 

If it takes him 119 pitches, it takes him 119 pitches. The idea that he shouldn't be in the starting rotation is dumb.

 

In a one game sample you are correct, but if it took him 119 pitches to get through six innings every game, he would probably end up injured or taken out, on occasion, due to pitch count before completing that sixth inning.

 

You're also correct that he should be in the starting rotation. He has earned, through past success, more than four starts before being thrown on the scrap heap.

[Backtobanks]

So we're going to dump salary just to pour it back into some other long term/high price FA? Players like Fielder and Cliff Lee are going to cost you $30 million or more per year for 4-5 years, so then you're locked into old, expensive players that will have reduced production. Plus Fielder has the type of body that won't age well.

 

Let's say, for example, we trade Z's contract and let Lee and Lilly walk. That's $17 mil in savings for Z, $13 mil in savings from Lee and $12 mil in savings from Lilly. Their respective ages are 28, 34 and 34.

 

Let's then say we sign Prince Fielder (roughly $18 mil for 5 years, say), Jorge De La Rosa (roughly $10 mil for 3 years, say) and Jose Reyes (roughly $15 mil for 4 years, say, with him or Castro playing second). Their respective ages are 26, 29 and 27.

 

We've likely improved the current team overall and we've added about $1 million in salary. Fielder's not a guy who's going to age well, but if we give him a 5 year contract at 27, we likely have him for at least 3 productive years, probably more. De La Rosa will be 30, but has been very productive (his FIP has improved each of the past three years to 3.36 so far this year) and we could probably get him for 3-4 years and 10-12 million – a Lilly-esque bargain. Reyes would be a huge improvement over Theriot and, while he would cost more, we'd have him through his age 32-33 year and he'd bridge the gap nicely to, hopefully, Hak-Ju Lee.

 

Now, these names are just examples and I'm not saying they'll all definitely be available, but the point is to show that we could let some older players go and bring in younger players and not have to go into a long-term rebuilding process. I'm not saying we should trade Z, but if we could free up his salary and get a decent young player (Quentin maybe), it gives us more options on building more of a long-term contender going into next season.

 

I think Zambrano is one of those players that is better than whatever you can get for him. I saw a quote that other GMs don't think very highly of him and probably wouldn't take him unless the Cubs ate a chunk of his contract. If the Cubs had to eat part of his contract plus get minimal return for him, then in my opinion, Z's not worth trading. Whether we like it or not, if Lee gets his numbers up to respectable, he will be extended.

[biittner77]

I think Zambrano is one of those players that is better than whatever you can get for him. I saw a quote that other GMs don't think very highly of him and probably wouldn't take him unless the Cubs ate a chunk of his contract. If the Cubs had to eat part of his contract plus get minimal return for him, then in my opinion, Z's not worth trading. Whether we like it or not, if Lee gets his numbers up to respectable, he will be extended.

 

You may turn out to be right but If you combined the money that they would be paying Lee with the money that they are paying Lilly, they have enough to go get a very good 1st baseman. Not that there are many good ones available in FA but they could trade for a soon to be expensive 1st baseman and then afford to extend him immediately.

 

Much as he likes Lee, I believe Hendry would love to be able to add a LH 1st baseman to bat in the middle of the order. I think we'll see him use the same rhetoric that he used when he non tendered Kerry Wood, ie "He deserves a chance to go get that 3 year deal , blah blah blah."

[dew1679666265]

I think Zambrano is one of those players that is better than whatever you can get for him. I saw a quote that other GMs don't think very highly of him and probably wouldn't take him unless the Cubs ate a chunk of his contract. If the Cubs had to eat part of his contract plus get minimal return for him, then in my opinion, Z's not worth trading.

 

Nowhere have I said we should be looking to dump Z for nothing. All of my posts have assumed the idea that if we trade Z, we – at a minimum – get relief of his entire salary. The trade proposals I responded to had us saving money and getting a decent piece in return (Vazquez or Quentin). If the only offers we can get for Z is eating a chunk of his contract and getting minimal value in return, I have no interest in trading him at all.

 

If, however, we can deal his entire contract and get something decent in return, then we have to consider it because we can make the team better in both the short and long term by doing so.

 

Whether we like it or not, if Lee gets his numbers up to respectable, he will be extended.

 

I don't think that's a foregone conclusion. Hendry has let players he liked go when their contracts were up and it didn't make sense to extend them. If Lee goes on a tear again this year, I could see us offering a decent sized 1-2 year deal, but I don't think he's getting a big contract from the Cubs. I think re-signing Lilly is far more likely than re-signing Lee, to be honest.

[sneakypower]

Gorzelanny has a 3.63 FIP in nearly 100 IP the last 2 years. He's awesome.

furthermore, FIP has both Gorzellany and Wells as being top 10 starters in all of baseball so far

[biittner77]

Gorzelanny has a 3.63 FIP in nearly 100 IP the last 2 years. He's awesome.

 

Which is why I'm worried that he'll be the one sent to the pen instead of Silva.

 

.

 

I think being LH keeps him in the rotation over Silva. Piniella and Hendry like them some LH players.