2010 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection Committee

[Andy]

So regarding these lists we're supposed to send in, do the 34 at-large teams we are sending in not include the locks, who we now assume are in the field?

[CubInOK]

I don't understand the Ohio State for #1 seed thing. I can't get past their RPI nearing 30. I think their RPI would be around 10 if they went 3-0 in games that Turner missed. To top that off, their only good OOC wins are against Cal (which I think has an inflated RPI) and Florida St.

 

At this point, my #1s are Kansas, Syracuse, Duke, and Kentucky.

[Vanilla Ice]

I don't understand the Ohio State for #1 seed thing. I can't get past their RPI nearing 30. I think their RPI would be around 10 if they went 3-0 in games that Turner missed. To top that off, their only good OOC wins are against Cal (which I think has an inflated RPI) and Florida St.

 

At this point, my #1s are Kansas, Syracuse, Duke, and Kentucky.

I think if they had beaten WVU, they would have a much better chance. I wouldn't give them one at this point unless they won the Big 10 tournament and some other teams lost.

[bukie]

So regarding these lists we're supposed to send in, do the 34 at-large teams we are sending in not include the locks, who we now assume are in the field?

Here's what I want today (well by 8am CST tomorrow):

- Top 8 overall from teams already in (locks + auto bids)

- Top 16 from the teams in consideration

- Bottom 8 from the teams in consideration

 

I will use these lists to select the top 4 overall for 1 seeds, the 8 other at-large teams in the field besides the 26 we already have (to make 34 total), and pare down the consideration list.

[bukie]

And I am working on getting statistical comparison info out on the locks and consideration teams, but I do have to give attention to paid work today also. :)

 

Here's what I have so far:

 

Team               W  L  top25  26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS   R+N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baylor            24  6    5-3    2-1    8-2     3-0  5-0  37   228   9-5
BYU               28  4    0-1    5-3    3-0    10-0  9-0 125   188  13-3
Clemson           21  9    4-4    1-3    6-2     3-0  7-0  15   245   7-7
Duke              26  5    4-3    4-1   12-1     3-0  4-0   4    73   9-5
Georgetown        20  9    3-5    4-2    5-1     4-1  3-0   2    63   8-5
Gonzaga           26  6    1-2    1-1    9-1     4-1 11-1 111    40  12-5
Kansas            29  2    8-0    2-2   10-0     5-0  4-0  32   138  11-2
Kansas State      24  6    5-3    2-2    8-1     4-0  4-0   6    96  11-3
Kentucky          29  2    0-0    7-1   10-1     9-0  3-0  62   199  11-2
Maryland          23  7    4-4    2-1    7-1     3-1  6-0  27   258   8-6
Michigan State    24  7    2-4    2-1    9-2     7-0  4-0  34   170   9-5

Edited March 10, 2010 by bukie

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't understand the Ohio State for #1 seed thing. I can't get past their RPI nearing 30. I think their RPI would be around 10 if they went 3-0 in games that Turner missed. To top that off, their only good OOC wins are against Cal (which I think has an inflated RPI) and Florida St.

 

At this point, my #1s are Kansas, Syracuse, Duke, and Kentucky.

 

Who did Kentucky beat OOC to deserve a #1?

 

Against teams we have as locks, Kentucky went 2-1

 

Against teams we have as locks(not including games Turner was out for) OSU went 3-2

 

OSU has the bad loss to UNC. UK has the bad loss to South Carolina. I have UK above them for now, but a UK flameout coupled with an OSU Big Ten title has to give that spot to OSU

Edited March 10, 2010 by SouthSideRyan

[Andy]

I don't understand the Ohio State for #1 seed thing. I can't get past their RPI nearing 30. I think their RPI would be around 10 if they went 3-0 in games that Turner missed. To top that off, their only good OOC wins are against Cal (which I think has an inflated RPI) and Florida St.

 

At this point, my #1s are Kansas, Syracuse, Duke, and Kentucky.

I think if they had beaten WVU, they would have a much better chance. I wouldn't give them one at this point unless they won the Big 10 tournament and some other teams lost.

I think the last #1 comes down to which of Duke/WVU wins their conference tournament. I think WVU should get it unless Duke wins their tournament and WVU doesn't make it to the final of the Big East (I think both those things will happen and Duke will get the last #1).

[bukie]

I think Duke has a lot better resume than they're given credit for in the media, and not just because they're Duke.

 

In other words, this just in, Duke = good.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think Duke has a lot better resume than they're given credit for in the media, and not just because they're Duke.

 

In other words, this just in, Duke = good.

 

Yeah, I'm not quite getting the Duke hate. If they win their 1st round game, I think they're a 1.

[Andy]

I think Duke has a lot better resume than they're given credit for in the media, and not just because they're Duke.

 

In other words, this just in, Duke = good.

 

Yeah, I'm not quite getting the Duke hate. If they win their 1st round game, I think they're a 1.

They're legit, but the beatdown Georgetown gave them sticks in my mind and the lack of top teams in the ACC hurts their perception.

[bukie]

I updated the first post with stats on all the at-large locks, but I'll repost them here too:

 

Team               W  L  top25  26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS   R+N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baylor            24  6    5-3    2-1    8-2     3-0  5-0  37   228   9-5
BYU               28  4    0-1    5-3    3-0    10-0  9-0 125   188  13-3
Clemson           21  9    4-4    1-3    6-2     3-0  7-0  15   245   7-7
Duke              26  5    4-3    4-1   12-1     3-0  4-0   4    73   9-5
Georgetown        20  9    3-5    4-2    5-1     4-1  3-0   2    63   8-5
Gonzaga           26  6    1-2    1-1    9-1     4-1 11-1 111    40  12-5
Kansas            29  2    8-0    2-2   10-0     5-0  4-0  32   138  11-2
Kansas State      24  6    5-3    2-2    8-1     4-0  4-0   6    96  11-3
Kentucky          29  2    0-0    7-1   10-1     9-0  3-0  62   199  11-2
Maryland          23  7    4-4    2-1    7-1     3-1  6-0  27   258   8-6
Michigan State    24  7    2-4    2-1    9-2     7-0  4-0  34   170   9-5
Missouri          22  9    2-5    2-2    9-1     1-1  8-0  56   300   6-7
New Mexico        28  3    4-0    3-2    1-0    11-1  9-0  98   129  11-2
Ohio State        24  7    5-4    1-1    6-2     7-0  5-0  48   231   7-6
Pittsburgh        24  7    4-3    1-1    8-2     7-1  3-0  33   221   7-6
Purdue            26  4    4-3    4-0    6-1     8-0  4-0  31   177  12-2
Syracuse          28  3    6-0    3-3    9-0     5-0  5-0  27   258   8-6
Temple            26  5    2-2    2-1    6-1    10-1  6-0  27   258   8-6
Tennessee         23  7    2-2    3-3    7-2     6-0  5-0  45   130   8-6
Texas             23  8    2-6    3-0    9-2     4-0  5-0  39   204   8-6
Texas A&M         22  8    4-5    2-3    7-0     4-0  4-0  11   140   7-7
Vanderbilt        23  7    1-2    6-0    8-4     5-1  2-0  29    94   9-5
Villanova         24  6    5-3    4-2    5-1     6-0  4-0   8   163  12-4
West Virginia     24  6    5-3    3-2    8-1     6-0  2-0   1    39  12-4
Wisconsin         23  7    6-3    0-1    8-2     5-1  4-0  22   120   7-6
Xavier            23  7    0-4    3-3    4-0    11-0  5-0  61    19   8-7

 

My notes from this:

- This is all data taken from Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, both a much better tool than RPI and a much more accessible tool.

- The only teams on the list without a top 25 win are BYU, Xavier and Kentucky (who didn't have a top 25 loss, either)

- The teams from the weaker conferences generally played stronger non-conference schedules, except BYU.

- Kansas had 8 top 25 wins, followed by Syracuse and Wisconsin with 6 each.

- West Virginia and Vanderbilt managed to play just 2 teams each outside the top 200. Gonzaga, on the other hand, played 12 (and lost one).

- Gonzaga played the most road/neutral games with 17, but Purdue had the best road-neutral record at 12-2 (in terms of percentage). BYU is 13-3, New Mexico, Kansas and Kentucky are 11-2, Kansas State is 11-3, and Villanova and West Virginia are 12-4.

- Of the list, Gonzaga has by far the worst loss.

[bukie]

About 1/3 of the way through the bubble teams, here's what I've got so far:

 

Team               W  L  top25  26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS   R+N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Louisville        20 11    2-5    1-2    6-2     7-2  3-0  23   176   5-7
Marquette         20 10    2-6    1-2    8-1     3-1  6-0  51   294   7-6
Florida State     22  8    1-6    4-1    8-1     3-0  6-0  24   222   9-5
Oklahoma State    21  9    4-5    0-0    5-4     8-0  4-0  49   298   6-8
Richmond          24  7    1-1    4-1    3-3     9-2  7-0  85    92  10-6
California        21  9    0-3    3-2    4-2    13-2  1-0  20    10   6-8
UTEP              24  5    0-1    1-1    9-2     4-1 10-0 145   299   9-3
Wake Forest       19  9    3-3    2-2    7-3     1-1  6-0   9   162   6-7
Utah State        25  6    1-0    0-1    4-1    12-4  7-0 154   171   8-5
Dayton            20 11    1-3    2-3    0-3    13-2  4-0  74    78   5-9
Illinois          18 13    3-7    1-1    5-3     6-2  3-0  13   119   6-9
Memphis           23  8    0-2    0-2    8-2     4-2 11-0 133   248   7-5
Notre Dame        21 10    3-2    1-1    6-5     5-2  6-0  70   342   4-7

 

The only thing I have to say is holy crap, Illinois really did play a tough schedule, at least in terms of high-end teams.

[Vanilla Ice]

can we throw out more than 8 teams? there are a lot of teams on this list that are not getting in.

[bukie]

Completed consideration board:

 

Team               W  L  top25  26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS   R+N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Arizona State     22  9    0-5    2-1    2-2    12-1  6-0  64   161   6-6
California        21  9    0-3    3-2    4-2    13-2  1-0  20    10   6-8
Charlotte         19 12    0-3    2-5    1-1     6-3  9-0  81   141   9-7
Cincinnati        17 14    1-6    2-3    4-5     5-0  4-0  70   149  5-10
Coastal Carolina  28  6    0-1    0-0    0-0     2-0 21-5 347   342  11-4
Connecticut       17 15    3-5    1-4    2-6     9-0  2-0   3    42  3-11
Dayton            20 11    1-3    2-3    0-3    13-2  4-0  74    78   5-9
Florida           20 11    2-4    2-4    7-2     4-0  5-1  58   215   7-7
Florida State     22  8    1-6    4-1    8-1     3-0  6-0  24   222   9-5
Georgia Tech      19 11    2-5    1-3    6-3     3-0  6-0  12   161   5-9
Illinois          18 13    3-7    1-1    5-3     6-2  3-0  13   119   6-9
Lipscomb          17 13    0-1    0-1    0-2     5-3 11-6 241   173   8-8
Louisville        20 11    2-5    1-2    6-2     7-2  3-0  23   176   5-7
Marquette         20 10    2-6    1-2    8-1     3-1  6-0  51   294   7-6
Memphis           23  8    0-2    0-2    8-2     4-2 11-0 133   248   7-5
Minnesota         18 12    3-6    0-0    4-5     6-1  5-0  47   246   4-9
Mississippi       21  9    1-3    1-3    8-3     4-0  6-0  69   196   9-5
Mississippi State 21 10    0-1    3-4    7-5     5-2  6-0  86   256   9-7
Notre Dame        21 10    3-2    1-1    6-5     5-2  6-0  70   342   4-7
Oklahoma State    21  9    4-5    0-0    5-4     8-0  4-0  49   298   6-8
Rhode Island      22  8    0-1    2-3    3-2    13-2  4-0  89    82   9-6
Richmond          24  7    1-1    4-1    3-3     9-2  7-0  85    92  10-6
Saint Louis       20 10    0-1    3-3    2-3     8-2  6-1 120   288   5-7
San Diego State   22  8    0-2    2-3    1-0     9-1  8-1  83   107   8-7
Seton Hall        19 11    0-6    3-3    5-2     5-0  6-0  52   323   6-7
South Florida     20 12    1-5    1-3    7-3     6-1  5-0  35   212   9-8
Stony Brook       22  9    0-0    0-0    0-2     4-2 16-5 318   336  10-8
Troy              20 12    0-0    0-1    1-4     6-3 10-4 184    20  9-10
UAB               23  7    1-0    0-4    8-3     6-0  8-0  99   145  11-4
UNLV              23  7    1-2    3-2    2-1     7-2  9-0  97   137   9-4
Utah State        25  6    1-0    0-1    4-1    12-4  7-0 154   171   8-5
UTEP              24  5    0-1    1-1    9-2     4-1 10-0 145   299   9-3
Virginia Tech     23  7    1-3    2-1   10-3     2-0  8-0  66   330   8-6
Wake Forest       19  9    3-3    2-2    7-3     1-1  6-0   9   162   6-7
Washington        21  9    2-2    1-1    3-4    14-2  1-0  57   125   4-7
William & Mary    22 10    1-0    2-3    3-2     6-2  9-3  84    17  12-7

 

Notes:

- Small conference winners look totally outclassed in this group, and that includes a barely .500 team.

- William and Mary have 3 losses to teams outside the top 200. Florida, San Diego State and Saint Louis also have a loss outside the top 200.

- Of the remaining teams, Utah State has played just 7 games against the top 100, San Diego State just 8

- Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Seton Hall played non conference schedules rated over 300, and Marquette, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis and UTEP played non-conference schedules rated over 250.

- Illinois played the most top 25 teams of anyone at 10, but went just 3-7 in the games (and get another one Friday!). Only Oklahoma State, though, has more top 25 wins at 4. Connecticut, Minnesota, Notre Dame and Wake Forest also have 3 wins.

- Connecticut went 2-6 against teams ranked 51-100, and 6-15 against the top 100 overall. Other teams under .500 against teams 51-100 are Cincinnati (4-5), Minnesota (4-5), Mississippi State (3-4), Saint Louis (2-3) and Washington (3-4).

[bukie]

Reminder: 13 hours to get me those 3 lists. I have received 1 and 1/3 lists so far.

[Old Style]

I apologize but my computer has been killed by spyware. I am not going to be able to do this from my iPhone so I will have to do it first thing in the morning when I get to work.

[bukie]

Robert Morris takes the NEC bid. Big Sky bid up for grabs now between Weber State and Montana.

[bukie]

Montana steals the Big Sky bid after being down 20 at the half.

 

10 hours to get lists in.

[CubbieBum]

Well crap. I thought the deadline was Friday for some reason.

[CubInOK]

Err... umm... disregard.

[Old Style]

Just sent mine in and only 7 minutes late. :D

[bukie]

Thanks all. I have a meeting in 10 minutes, but after that I'll post my choices and the results and the plan for tomorrow.

[bukie]

OK, here's my lists:

 

Top 8:

 

Kansas

Syracuse

Duke

Kentucky

West Virginia

Ohio State

Villanova

Wisconsin

 

 

Top 16 bubble teams:

 

Florida State

Richmond

Wake Forest

Notre Dame

Utah State

Marquette

Florida

UNLV

Louisville

Oklahoma State

California

UAB

Virginia Tech

Memphis

Minnesota

Washington

 

 

Bottom 8 bubble teams:

 

Stony Brook

Lipscomb

Coastal Carolina

Troy

William and Mary

Saint Louis

Connecticut

Charlotte

 

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm thinking the bubble rankings are going to be all over the place after checking out bukie's.

 

I know people say it every year, but the bubble sucks this season. This is the 6th year we've done this, and I can't remember ranking so many seemingly unfit teams into the tournament.

[Vanilla Ice]

UAB?? That can't be right. Their profile is awful.