2010 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection Committee

[bukie]

It's that time of year again. Time for the 7th annual mock tournament selection committee, during which we'll do a mock version of the tournament selection process. Anyone is free to participate if they are able, but please make sure you'll be able to participate regularly between Wednesday and Sunday of next week (during the actual selection process), or at the very least be able to submit 1-3 lists of teams per day during that period. The actual committee consists of 10 members, so if we can get close to that number, the process will more closely resemble reality (rather than the combined feelings of a couple folks).

 

To participate, by next week Wednesday, March 10 (let's say, Wed morning at 8 CST), send (PM) me 3 things:

1) Your favorite team (the team you'll "represent"). During the selection process, you will not be allowed to include this team in any lists, to maintain as much of a sense of fairness as possible. This mirrors the real committee, as a committee member may not be involved in any discussion for a team in his conference (we'd do that here, but 95% of the populace is Big Ten, so nobody would ever be able to discuss them)

2) A list of cold, hard locks for the tournament, no further discussion needed, no matter what they do in the remainder of their games. This can be any number of teams up to a max of 34 (there are 34 at-large bids, no more than that can be locks, right?)

3) A list of teams that deserve consideration for the tournament, besides the locks.

 

Some good resources:

Pomeroy ratings

Sagarin ratings

RPI

Basketball State (costs money after a few page views, but tons of info)

Basketball Prospectus

 

S-Curve (1-24 and 52-65, 38 teams placed):

Rank Team               W  L  top25  26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS   R+N
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1 Kansas            29  2    8-0    2-2   10-0     5-0  4-0  32   138  11-2
  2 Syracuse          28  3    6-0    3-3    9-0     5-0  5-0  27   258   8-6
  3 Kentucky          29  2    0-0    7-1   10-1     9-0  3-0  62   199  11-2
  4 Duke              26  5    4-3    4-1   12-1     3-0  4-0   4    73   9-5
  5 West Virginia     24  6    5-3    3-2    8-1     6-0  2-0   1    39  12-4
  6 Ohio State        24  7    5-4    1-1    6-2     7-0  5-0  48   231   7-6
  7 Kansas State      24  6    5-3    2-2    8-1     4-0  4-0   6    96  11-3
  8 Purdue            26  4    4-3    4-0    6-1     8-0  4-0  31   177  12-2
  9 Villanova         24  6    5-3    4-2    5-1     6-0  4-0   8   163  12-4
 10 Wisconsin         23  7    6-3    0-1    8-2     5-1  4-0  22   120   7-6
 11 New Mexico        28  3    4-0    3-2    1-0    11-1  9-0  98   129  11-2
 12 Baylor            24  6    5-3    2-1    8-2     3-0  5-0  37   228   9-5
 13 Michigan State    24  7    2-4    2-1    9-2     7-0  4-0  34   170   9-5
 14 Pittsburgh        24  7    4-3    1-1    8-2     7-1  3-0  33   221   7-6
 15 Butler (HOR)      28  4    2-2    0-1    5-1    13-0  8-0  91     4  13-4
 16 Tennessee         23  7    2-2    3-3    7-2     6-0  5-0  45   130   8-6
 17 Georgetown        20  9    3-5    4-2    5-1     4-1  3-0   2    63   8-5
 18 Temple            26  5    2-2    2-1    6-1    10-1  6-0  27   258   8-6
 19 Maryland          23  7    4-4    2-1    7-1     3-1  6-0  27   258   8-6
 20 Vanderbilt        23  7    1-2    6-0    8-4     5-1  2-0  29    94   9-5
 21 Texas A&M         22  8    4-5    2-3    7-0     4-0  4-0  11   140   7-7
 22 BYU               28  4    0-1    5-3    3-0    10-0  9-0 125   188  13-3
 23 Clemson           21  9    4-4    1-3    6-2     3-0  7-0  15   245   7-7
 24 Texas             23  8    2-6    3-0    9-2     4-0  5-0  39   204   8-6
 25
 26
 27
 28
 29
 30
 31
 32
 33
 34
 35
 36
 37
 38
 39
 40
 41
 42
 43
 44
 45
 46
 47
 48
 49
 50
 51
 52 Oakland (SUM)     26  8    0-4    0-1    0-0     6-3 18-0 191    13  13-7
 53 Montana (BSky)    22  9    0-0    0-1    0-0    11-4  9-4 310   131   8-7
 54 SL (Sam Hou St)   24  7    0-1    0-0    1-1     5-2 14-3 235    92  11-6
 55 Houston (CUSA)    19 16    0-0    2-2    5-5     6-4  5-3 102   124  9-10
 56 MAC (Ohio)        19 14    0-0    0-1    2-4     7-6  8-3 164   159  6-10
 57 BW (Long Beach)   17 15    1-5    0-1    0-0     5-4  8-5 210   131  9-12
 58 Vermont (AE)      25  9    0-0    0-0    0-2     8-3 17-4 308   312  15-7
 59 North Texas (SB)  24  8    0-1    0-1    0-0     5-2 16-4 155   128  12-6
 60 Morgan St (MEAC)  25  9    0-1    0-2    0-1     3-3 22-2 304   171  14-8
 61 E Tenn St (ASun)  20 14    0-0    0-2    0-3     8-5 11-4 206    30  11-9
 62 Rob. Morris (NEC) 23 11    0-1    0-1    0-3     6-5 17-2 310   131  11-8
 63 Winthrop (BSth)   19 13    0-1    0-1    0-3     2-4 15-5 306    88  7-11
 64 Lehigh (Pat)      21 10    0-0    0-2    0-0     1-3 20-5 328   346   7-8
 65 SWAC (Ark PB)     15 15    0-2    0-4    0-2     0-3 15-4 301     1  7-14

 

Teams not yet placed (27):

Team               W  L  top25  26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS   R+N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTEP              26  6    0-1    1-1   10-3     5-1 10-0 139   263  11-4
Cornell (Ivy)     27  4    0-2    0-0    2-1    10-0 13-1 218    78  14-3
Florida           20 11    2-4    2-4    7-2     4-0  5-1  58   215   7-7
Florida State     22  8    1-6    4-1    8-1     3-0  6-0  24   222   9-5
Georgia Tech      19 11    2-5    1-3    6-3     3-0  6-0  12   161   5-9
Gonzaga           26  6    1-2    1-1    9-1     4-1 11-1 111    40  12-5
Illinois          18 13    3-7    1-1    5-3     6-2  3-0  13   119   6-9
Louisville        20 11    2-5    1-2    6-2     7-2  3-0  23   176   5-7
Marquette         20 10    2-6    1-2    8-1     3-1  6-0  51   294   7-6
Missouri          22  9    2-5    2-2    9-1     1-1  8-0  56   300   6-7
Murray St (OVC)   30  4    0-1    0-0    2-1     4-2 22-0 297   307  15-4
MWC (UNLV)        23  7    1-2    3-2    2-1     7-2  9-0  97   137   9-4
Northern IA (MVC) 28  4    0-0    1-0    8-1    13-2  5-1 114   162  14-4
Notre Dame        21 10    3-2    1-1    6-5     5-2  6-0  70   342   4-7
Oklahoma State    21  9    4-5    0-0    5-4     8-0  4-0  49   298   6-8
Old Dominion (CAA)26  8    1-1    0-2    4-3     8-1 13-0 112    33  11-8
Pac-10 (Cal)      21  9    0-3    3-2    4-2    13-2  1-0  20    10   6-8
Richmond          24  7    1-1    4-1    3-3     9-2  7-0  85    92  10-6
San Diego State   22  8    0-2    2-3    1-0     9-1  8-1  83   107   8-7
Siena (MAAC)      27  6    0-1    0-3    1-1    18-1  7-0 167   104  10-6
St. Mary's (WCC)  26  5    0-0    3-3    3-2     7-0 12-0 155   128  12-3
Virginia Tech     23  7    1-3    2-1   10-3     2-0  8-0  66   330   8-6
WAC (Utah St)     25  6    1-0    0-1    4-1    12-4  7-0 154   171   8-5
Wake Forest       19  9    3-3    2-2    7-3     1-1  6-0   9   162   6-7
Washington        21  9    2-2    1-1    3-4    14-2  1-0  57   125   4-7
Wofford (SC)      26  8    0-1    0-1    2-2     8-4 15-0 207    86  15-7
Xavier            23  7    0-4    3-3    4-0    11-0  5-0  61    19   8-7

 

Still under consideration, but currently out (7):

Team               W  L  top25  26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS   R+N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Arizona State     22  9    0-5    2-1    2-2    12-1  6-0  64   161   6-6
Dayton            20 11    1-3    2-3    0-3    13-2  4-0  74    78   5-9
Minnesota         18 12    3-6    0-0    4-5     6-1  5-0  47   246   4-9
Mississippi       21  9    1-3    1-3    8-3     4-0  6-0  69   196   9-5
Mississippi State 21 10    0-1    3-4    7-5     5-2  6-0  86   256   9-7
Rhode Island      22  8    0-1    2-3    3-2    13-2  4-0  89    82   9-6
Seton Hall        19 11    0-6    3-3    5-2     5-0  6-0  52   323   6-7

Edited March 13, 2010 by bukie

[Vanilla Ice]

I am in this year representing Duke

[CubbieBum]

I will do it as well. Obviously I will be repping Purdue.

[Andy]

Repping ND, I am game for this.

[Old Style]

How much time are we talking here? I'd love to join if it's not going to take too much time.

 

My team is Texas A&M.

[CubInOK]

I'll do it. I'm reppin Oklahoma.

[ISUCubsFan]

In, Iowa State.

[CubbieBum]

How much time are we talking here? I'd love to join if it's not going to take too much time.

 

My team is Texas A&M.

 

Read the directions. It will take however long it takes you to fill out all of that. This is not like the actual committee where we sit an debate. We submit blind ballots and they get added up. It's sort of like a ranking poll that then slots them into the tournament.

[ISUCubsFan]

How much time are we talking here? I'd love to join if it's not going to take too much time.

 

My team is Texas A&M.

 

Read the directions. It will take however long it takes you to fill out all of that. This is not like the actual committee where we sit an debate. We submit blind ballots and they get added up. It's sort of like a ranking poll that then slots them into the tournament.

 

Yeah, after you get the lock and consideration lists done you can pretty much make a list the potential at-larges and conference champs in order and have everything you need (obviously you'll adjust as championship week goes on). You can look at last year's thread (which ended up being pretty accurate if I remember right) to see how it usually works. While I think a few debates are a good thing, they're certainly not required.

[SouthSideRyan]

We were incredibly accurate last year.

 

 

64/65 teams in.

34/65 teams on the correct line.

59/65 within one line.

 

According to TT that placed us 2nd out of 62 projections that were tracked by this method.

[SouthSideRyan]

And I'm in for Illinois

[Old Style]

How much time are we talking here? I'd love to join if it's not going to take too much time.

 

My team is Texas A&M.

 

Read the directions. It will take however long it takes you to fill out all of that. This is not like the actual committee where we sit an debate. We submit blind ballots and they get added up. It's sort of like a ranking poll that then slots them into the tournament.

I did read the directions. Based off the quote below I was lead to believe that there would be some times where it would be live discussion and I didn't want to agree to be part of something if I wasn't available for that part of the process.

 

please make sure you'll be able to participate regularly between Wednesday and Sunday of next week (during the actual selection process)

[bukie]

How much time are we talking here? I'd love to join if it's not going to take too much time.

 

My team is Texas A&M.

 

Read the directions. It will take however long it takes you to fill out all of that. This is not like the actual committee where we sit an debate. We submit blind ballots and they get added up. It's sort of like a ranking poll that then slots them into the tournament.

I did read the directions. Based off the quote below I was lead to believe that there would be some times where it would be live discussion and I didn't want to agree to be part of something if I wasn't available for that part of the process.

 

please make sure you'll be able to participate regularly between Wednesday and Sunday of next week (during the actual selection process)

 

I'll try to describe the whole process in as brief a manner as possible (read: long post incoming...)

 

Step 1 - Each potential member sends me 2 lists by Wednesday: Locks (up to 34) and Potentials (as many as you like, really). From those lists, I will generate a list of teams that are "in the field" (75% representation in the Locks lists) and "in discussion" (everyone else in Locks and Potentials). There is also a third list of automatic qualifiers that win their conference tournaments.

Step 2 - Fill the field - Each member sends me a series of two ranked lists - top 8 "in the field", and top 8 "in discussion" - From there we'll start ranking teams at the top and putting more teams in the field. If the process becomes too slow/tedious, we can move to top 16 lists instead of top 8 (so there are fewer lists to be submitted). There'll also be one ranking list of all the automatic qualifiers that didn't make the discussion board (the "one-bid" leagues), so they can fill out the S-Curve, a 1-65 ranking of all the teams in the field.

Step 3 - Bracketing - Once the S-Curve is pretty well set, we can start putting teams into a bracket and pods according to NCAA rules (nobody can play at home, higher seeds not at a home field disadvantage in the first round, avoid rematches, BYU has to be a Thurs-Sat pod). Generally, we don't get this far anyway, but it's a goal to shoot for.

[bukie]

Also, I'll be updating this thread regularly with conference tournament results, as the tournaments start today.

[SouthSideRyan]

By my count, I have 15 no doubt 1 bid leagues.

 

SWAC, NEC, MEAC, Ivy, Big South, Patriot, America East, Summit, Southland, Atlantic Sun, Sun Belt, Big Sky, SoCon, Big West, & MAC

[Old Style]

I understand not being involved in any discussions on the team you are representing, but should we really leave them off our lists completely? I mean, it's stupid for the Duke or Purdue reps to not include them on their "locks" list.

[SouthSideRyan]

I understand not being involved in any discussions on the team you are representing, but should we really leave them off our lists completely? I mean, it's stupid for the Duke or Purdue reps to not include them on their "locks" list.

 

It's a percentage vote that puts them in, and there's no overwhelming amount of members supporting one team. One guy abstaining from a vote on Duke or Purdue isn't going to keep them from being voted a lock right away

[Old Style]

I understand not being involved in any discussions on the team you are representing, but should we really leave them off our lists completely? I mean, it's stupid for the Duke or Purdue reps to not include them on their "locks" list.

 

It's a percentage vote that puts them in, and there's no overwhelming amount of members supporting one team. One guy abstaining from a vote on Duke or Purdue isn't going to keep them from being voted a lock right away

I understand that. It's just foolish to leave a top 25 team off a list of locks for any reason. But I'll play by whatever rules there are.

[bukie]

It's all factored into the calculations. Your team is already assumed part of your locks list.

[bukie]

For reference, here is the official selection procedure as described by the NCAA.

[bukie]

Also, A-Sun regular season champ Lipscomb lost in the quarters of the A-Sun tourney, so they're automatically placed (at least briefly) into the consideration group.

[SouthSideRyan]

Get the hell out of my consideration group Lipscomb

[bukie]

Get the hell out of my consideration group Lipscomb

Lipscomb's profile:

Record vs top 50: 0-2

Record vs top 100: 0-4

Record vs 200+: 10-6

Road/Neutral record: 8-8

 

That's not screaming 12 seed to you?

[bukie]

By my count, I have 15 no doubt 1 bid leagues.

 

SWAC, NEC, MEAC, Ivy, Big South, Patriot, America East, Summit, Southland, Atlantic Sun, Sun Belt, Big Sky, SoCon, Big West, & MAC

To piggy back onto this, other potential 1-bid leagues: MAAC, Colonial, MVC, C-USA, Pac-10

[ISUCubsFan]

By my count, I have 15 no doubt 1 bid leagues.

 

SWAC, NEC, MEAC, Ivy, Big South, Patriot, America East, Summit, Southland, Atlantic Sun, Sun Belt, Big Sky, SoCon, Big West, & MAC

To piggy back onto this, other potential 1-bid leagues: MAAC, Colonial, MVC, C-USA, Pac-10

 

I like the scoring and minute balance of Murray State as much as the next guy, but I think the OVC belongs somewhere on this list.