2010 Int'l FA Market

[Guest]

Of course Latin America has produced more stars. The number of amateur Asians signed by major league squads pales in comparison to those in Latin America.

 

Being the #1 MLB team in a "new" market such as Korea is an extremely good thing. It was a fantastic decision by the Cubs and a move that will be very beneficial down the road.

[RammyFanny]

Brad (Minnesota)

 

 

Did Ricketts come out and explain why he is reducing the payroll? I know you can't throw money at your problems but most of the time it seems to work in this league

Bruce Levine

(1:29 PM)

 

 

He said the money would be allocated to the amateur draft as well as free-agent signings in Latin America and the Pacific Rim. Ricketts believes the future of the Cubs must be built through the minor leagues.

[Guest]

Brad (Minnesota)

 

 

Did Ricketts come out and explain why he is reducing the payroll? I know you can't throw money at your problems but most of the time it seems to work in this league

Bruce Levine

(1:29 PM)

 

 

He said the money would be allocated to the amateur draft as well as free-agent signings in Latin America and the Pacific Rim. Ricketts believes the future of the Cubs must be built through the minor leagues.

Waiting to see evidence of this being true. :(

[davell]

I was glad to see that in the chat, I wish he'd actually act on it though.(plenty of central american prospects still out there) Part of me thinks that all they are accounting for is since we had a worse record, we kind of have to spend more on the draft, as far as slotting goes. I'm certainly hoping that there is a whole lot more to it than just that.

 

That said, it was widely thought we'd spend more this year than in the past as well. Which, technically, I guess they did on the draft, but it was because we picked 15 spots higher than the previous year and were still somewhere near(or maybe in) the bottom 5 of all spenders in the draft this past season. But, if they want to, they can ACT like we're spending more to the casual fan anyway.

 

I'm not all that concerned with the Pac Rim. We signed Kim and it doesn't look like we let anyone else slip through the cracks, since there weren't any big name signings over there this year.

 

We signed Sanchez, which is kind of normal at this point for us: One relatively high dollar signing and fill it out with a bunch of cheaper guys to fill out 2 DSL teams. Only other "name" we signed was Serrano, who got 250,000 or so?

 

Bottom line for me is this: If our major league payroll is indeed frozen, I want us to spend BIG in 2011 on our system. Maybe something to the affect of 5-7 mill on international signings and 8-10 mill on the draft. No clue what kind of prospects are going to be available overseas, but the draft looks to be one of the best in recent memory. If need be, spend even more on the draft if overseas looks weak. If they want to model themselves after the Red Sox, as they have said at different points, this is probably about in line with what they do on a yearly basis, even with them picking near the bottom of the draft each year. 15 mill in 2011 spent on the system and I'll be on board with Ricketts. Less than 10 mill and I'll be totally thinking we've got the McCaskey's running the Cubs now too.

[questionmarkgrace]

We think asia may have that same potential but no one has developed a star player who wasnt already a professional there.

 

http://blog.cleveland.com/tribe_impact/2009/06/medium_shin-soo-choo-2009.jpg

 

So one player thats all you have?

[TruffleShuffle]

We think asia may have that same potential but no one has developed a star player who wasnt already a professional there.

 

http://blog.cleveland.com/tribe_impact/2009/06/medium_shin-soo-choo-2009.jpg

 

So one player thats all you have?

 

you wrote that nobody developed a star player who wasn't already a professional there. the guy above proves that to be untrue.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=10582

 

17-year old OF Yasiel Balaguer defected from Cuba.

 

According to two scouting reports obtained by Baseball America, scouts who saw Balaguer in Thunder Bay during the World Junior Championships in August weren't blown away. Instead, they rated Balaguer as a player with average tools across the board with one important below-average tool—his bat.

 

Both reports characterize Balaguer, who bats and throws righthanded, as physical at about 6-foot, 190 pounds, and the descriptions hint at a lack of projection in his body. Both reports project Balaguer as a corner outfielder due to fringe-average speed, and both characterize his throwing arm as average. Neither offers praise for his hitting ability, with one citing a "long swing" and both reporting difficulty handling velocity.

[questionmarkgrace]

We think asia may have that same potential but no one has developed a star player who wasnt already a professional there.

 

http://blog.cleveland.com/tribe_impact/2009/06/medium_shin-soo-choo-2009.jpg

 

So one player thats all you have?

 

you wrote that nobody developed a star player who wasn't already a professional there. the guy above proves that to be untrue.

 

Ok correction one player out of the many has become good player. I'm not saying we shouldn't be scouting there, I just dont think we should be investing the majority of our money for international players there.

[Guest]

You have to remember you're using a much smaller pool of players when comparing amateurs signed from Asia and amateurs signed from Latin America. That's the main reason so few stars have developed from Asia.

 

And if you want "good" players, Chan Ho Park, Byung-Hyun Kim and Hong-Chih Kuo were/are good players who were signed as amateurs out of Asia.

[shnsajax]

Brad (Minnesota)

 

 

Did Ricketts come out and explain why he is reducing the payroll? I know you can't throw money at your problems but most of the time it seems to work in this league

Bruce Levine

(1:29 PM)

 

 

He said the money would be allocated to the amateur draft as well as free-agent signings in Latin America and the Pacific Rim. Ricketts believes the future of the Cubs must be built through the minor leagues.

Waiting to see evidence of this being true. :(

 

Hopefully they are expecting someone to fall. Purke please!

[davell]

Steylon Peguero signed with the Mariners today for 2.9 mill. Still plenty of guys out there who were considered top notch players available.

[Bear Cub]

www.dplbaseball.com has the Cubs signing Alex Pena , catcher , from the Dominican Republic for $25 grand.

[davell]

That was a good find. I'm assuming that we probably make at least 10-15 of these type signings each year that do go unnoticed, to help fill out our 2 DSL teams rosters.

[jersey cubs fan]

http://www.dplbaseball.com/images/stories/pena%20dpl.jpg

[questionmarkgrace]

That was a good find. I'm assuming that we probably make at least 10-15 of these type signings each year that do go unnoticed, to help fill out our 2 DSL teams rosters.

 

 

just once though, I would like us to sign a big latin american prospect, rather than buying ten shirts for two dollars at the salvation army

[davell]

That was a good find. I'm assuming that we probably make at least 10-15 of these type signings each year that do go unnoticed, to help fill out our 2 DSL teams rosters.

 

 

just once though, I would like us to sign a big latin american prospect, rather than buying ten shirts for two dollars at the salvation army

 

 

I agree completely. That said, with the limited amount of scouting you have down there, the quantity approach isn't necessarily a bad way to go. We at least do usually make one "name" signing each year, although it's not one of the biggest names. However, with the supposed raised amount of spending on our system, I definitely want to see us sign a few more "name" players.

[sneakypower]

That was a good find. I'm assuming that we probably make at least 10-15 of these type signings each year that do go unnoticed, to help fill out our 2 DSL teams rosters.

 

 

just once though, I would like us to sign a big latin american prospect, rather than buying ten shirts for two dollars at the salvation army

http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-sports-in-haiku/StarlinCastro1.jpg

[Guest]

Exactly. Starlin Castro worked out way better than Larry Suarez. Both were signed the same summer and Larry got $700,000 more.

 

There's nothing wrong with the strategy the Cubs are employing in Latin America, especially considering the many problems down there.

[videographer]

The U.S. has the most developed amateur baseball system in the world. By the time kids reach 12 years old, they have been exposed to more organized baseball then any Latin nation, including Venezuela. Also, the diet of our post-industrial society matures adolescents more completely than third world countries. Because of these factors, high dollar contracts for U.S. amateurs is safer with greater return on value than high dollar contracts on Latin amateurs. Remember, 16 year old Latin kids are not scouted on baseball skills, as much as the physical skills that may translate to baseball skills. Few show the present ability to hit a baseball, throw and catch a baseball or run the base paths in an organized fashion.

 

I have no problem with the, "sign low dollar kids and see what sticks" mentality. For me, this has the best value of return on such unknown quantities. Can anyone come up with a list of the Latin bonus babies that are now major league regulars? My guess, the list is small.

 

I do have a theory on why teams (other than huge markets like N.Y. or Boston that have the cash) sign big bonus babies - its a marketing tool to show fans, other teams and maybe organizational employees that upper management is serious about player development. As a fan, I don't need the Cubs to show they are serious in developing homegrown talent by signing one or more of these kids. There are many tools these days to follow an organization's minor league talent base. If anything, these tools expose the realities of Latin baseball talent.

 

With all the money thrown around the last few years on Latin kids, PEDs have become a serious problem with top prospects. BA has eluded to this problem in conjunction with the slow signings of the current 16/17 year old Latin elites. I think the Cubs are wise to stay away from Latin Kids with agents wanting big dollars. And don't forget the scandals of agents scamming these kids with huge cuts from the contracts. The incentive to cheat is greater now than is the past. Big money = big corruption, add in impoverished, minimally educated kids and the big bets on return don't add up.

[javy knows my name]

The U.S. has the most developed amateur baseball system in the world. By the time kids reach 12 years old, they have been exposed to more organized baseball then any Latin nation, including Venezuela. Also, the diet of our post-industrial society matures adolescents more completely than third world countries. Because of these factors, high dollar contracts for U.S. amateurs is safer with greater return on value than high dollar contracts on Latin amateurs. Remember, 16 year old Latin kids are not scouted on baseball skills, as much as the physical skills that may translate to baseball skills. Few show the present ability to hit a baseball, throw and catch a baseball or run the base paths in an organized fashion.

 

I have no problem with the, "sign low dollar kids and see what sticks" mentality. For me, this has the best value of return on such unknown quantities. Can anyone come up with a list of the Latin bonus babies that are now major league regulars? My guess, the list is small.

 

I do have a theory on why teams (other than huge markets like N.Y. or Boston that have the cash) sign big bonus babies - its a marketing tool to show fans, other teams and maybe organizational employees that upper management is serious about player development. As a fan, I don't need the Cubs to show they are serious in developing homegrown talent by signing one or more of these kids. There are many tools these days to follow an organization's minor league talent base. If anything, these tools expose the realities of Latin baseball talent.

 

With all the money thrown around the last few years on Latin kids, PEDs have become a serious problem with top prospects. BA has eluded to this problem in conjunction with the slow signings of the current 16/17 year old Latin elites. I think the Cubs are wise to stay away from Latin Kids with agents wanting big dollars. And don't forget the scandals of agents scamming these kids with huge cuts from the contracts. The incentive to cheat is greater now than is the past. Big money = big corruption, add in impoverished, minimally educated kids and the big bets on return don't add up.

Very well said. The pac rim market is still largely untapped and the players are, on average, more polished than the latin kids, while being cheaper. Anyone who sees only dollar signs is going to prefer the latin market and the big splash signings, but the smart money is on the low risk talent in Japan and Korea

[questionmarkgrace]

The U.S. has the most developed amateur baseball system in the world. By the time kids reach 12 years old, they have been exposed to more organized baseball then any Latin nation, including Venezuela. Also, the diet of our post-industrial society matures adolescents more completely than third world countries. Because of these factors, high dollar contracts for U.S. amateurs is safer with greater return on value than high dollar contracts on Latin amateurs. Remember, 16 year old Latin kids are not scouted on baseball skills, as much as the physical skills that may translate to baseball skills. Few show the present ability to hit a baseball, throw and catch a baseball or run the base paths in an organized fashion.

 

I have no problem with the, "sign low dollar kids and see what sticks" mentality. For me, this has the best value of return on such unknown quantities. Can anyone come up with a list of the Latin bonus babies that are now major league regulars? My guess, the list is small.

 

I do have a theory on why teams (other than huge markets like N.Y. or Boston that have the cash) sign big bonus babies - its a marketing tool to show fans, other teams and maybe organizational employees that upper management is serious about player development. As a fan, I don't need the Cubs to show they are serious in developing homegrown talent by signing one or more of these kids. There are many tools these days to follow an organization's minor league talent base. If anything, these tools expose the realities of Latin baseball talent.

 

With all the money thrown around the last few years on Latin kids, PEDs have become a serious problem with top prospects. BA has eluded to this problem in conjunction with the slow signings of the current 16/17 year old Latin elites. I think the Cubs are wise to stay away from Latin Kids with agents wanting big dollars. And don't forget the scandals of agents scamming these kids with huge cuts from the contracts. The incentive to cheat is greater now than is the past. Big money = big corruption, add in impoverished, minimally educated kids and the big bets on return don't add up.

Very well said. The pac rim market is still largely untapped and the players are, on average, more polished than the latin kids, while being cheaper. Anyone who sees only dollar signs is going to prefer the latin market and the big splash signings, but the smart money is on the low risk talent in Japan and Korea

 

Yes Videographer, we all know of the problems in latin america with signing young kids. PEDs, false identification, agent fraud, etc. We face all of the same risks in any country where language is a barrier and we are dependent upon maximizing individuals. And true there have been plenty of Willy Aybar's and Willy mo Pena's who were juiced to the hills as 16 year old man-boys and fell flat on their face. But then there are also (quick search) Fransisco Rodriguez 1998 .8mil, Miguel Cabrera 1999 1.9mil, Felix Hernandez in 02 .7mil, Andrus 05 .6mil, and many others others. More money is being spent as the process is being cleaned up down there. Now there is age verification, intensive drug testing, crackdowns on corrupt agents. There is a reason that all of the teams that produce the best prospects annually: A's, Giants, Twins, Reds, Angels and teams that produce big prospects while trading them away yankees, red sox are among the big spenders. Plus more and more teams are building multi million dollar complexes down there to better scout, teach, monitor, and train. There may be less polish with these kids but it seems like the potential is endless. I just dont see this kind of high ceiling players coming out of the pac rim the way they do from latin america at least not yet. But really, I'm not against the gamble in Asia, its probably worth while and would look great if they were spending big in both places. But it doesnt make sense to forgo big spending in latin america.

[Guest]

The thing is that the high dollar latin guys don't necessarily have much higher ceilings than all the lottery ticket guys. Unless someone can demonstrate that there's a strong (or any, really) correlation to bonus demand and eventual performance, I don't see how it makes sense to change that approach. You get all the benefit of exploring Latin America, and you gain a competitive advantage in a market that few teams have a presence(Asia).

[seattlecub]

From what I can gather by a quick internet search, available evidence does not seem to suggest that big-money signings in Latin America have a great payoff for MLB clubs. Here's a list from 2009 of top LA signing bonuses ever:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/10/4/1069057/30-largest-latin-american-signing

 

31 Largest Latin American Signing Bonuses of All Time

Tiny by Patrick Clark on Oct 4, 2009 8:39 PM EDT

Note that I've excluded Cubans, who have generally played professionally in Cuba before signing with MLB clubs, and who are generally older than the July 2 prospects.

 

Michael Ynoa, 16, RHP, 2008, Athletics, D.R., $4,250,000

Miguel Sano, 16, SS, 2009, Twins, D.R., $3,150,000

Gary Sanchez, 16, C, 2009, Yankees, D.R., $3,000,000

Rafael Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Giants, D.R., $2,550,000

Yorman Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, VZA, $2,500,000

Wily Mo Peña, 17, OF, 1999, Yankees, D.R., $2,440,000

Joel Guzman, 16, SS, 2001, Dodgers, D.R., $2,255,000

Angel Villalona, 16, 3B, 2006, Giants, D.R., $2,100,00

Juan Duran, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, D.R., $2,000,000

Adys Portillo, 16, RHP, 2008, Padres, VZA, $2,000,000

Guillermo Pimental, 16, CF, 2009, Mariners, D.R., $2,000,000

Jose Vincio, 16, SS, 2009, Red Sox, D.R., $1,950,000

Miguel Cabrera, 16, IF, 1999, Marlins, VZA, $1,800,000

Jesus Montero, 16, C, 2006, Yankees, VZA, $1,650,000

Jackson Melian, 16, OF, 1996, Yankees, VZA, $1,600,000

Jurickson Profar, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, Curaçao, $1,550,000

Ricardo Aramboles, 16, RHP, 1998, Yankees, D.R., $1,520,000

Luis Sardinas, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, VZA, 1,500,000

Michael Almanzar, 16, SS, 2007, Red Sox, D.R., $1,500,000

Esmailyn Gonzalez, 16, SS, 2006, Nationals, D.R., $1,400,000

Fernando Martinez, 16, OF, 2005, Mets, D.R., $1,400,000

Willy Aybar, 16, IF, 2000, Dodgers, D.R., $1,400,000

Carlos Triunfel, 16, SS, 2006, Mariners, D.R., $1,300,000

Luis Domoromo, 16, OF, 2008, Padres, VZA, $1,250,000

Juan Urbina, 16, LHP, 2009, Mets, VZA, $1,250,000

Chesler Cuthbert, 16, 3B, 2009, Royals, Nicaragua, $1,200,000

Roberto De la Cruz, 16, 3B, 2008, Cardinals, D.R., $1,100,000

Julio Morban, 16, OF, 2008, Mariners, D.R., $1,100,000

Kelvin De Leon, 16, OF, 2007, Yankees, D.R., $1,100,000

Alvaro Aristy, 17, SS, 2008, Padres, D.R., $1,000,000

Jharmidy De Jesus, 17, SS, 2007, Mariners, D.R., $1,000,000

 

On that list, only Cabrera seems to have really achieved success at MLB level (granted, he's pretty awesome, but I'm not defining success as Cabrera-level type production. I don't even see anyone whose become a full-time starter here). To be fair, a large number of these have signed in the past coupe of years, so we can't really judge their success, but of that group only J. Montero seems to possess a particularly high probability of success at MLB level.

 

When we look at the top 15 signing bonuses from all international signings, we see much of the same. Except that the clearest example of success comes in the form of Byung-hyun Kim. An Asian signing.

 

from BA (July 22, 2010)

TOP 15 ALL-TIME INTERNATIONAL SIGNING BONUSES

Player Year Pos Org Age Country Bonus

1. Michael Ynoa 2008 RHP Athletics 16 Dominican Republic $4.25 million

2. Miguel Sano 2009 SS Twins 16 Dominican Republic $3.15 million

3. Gary Sanchez 2009 C Yankees 16 Dominican Republic $3 million

4. Adonis Cardona 2010 RHP Blue Jays 16 Venezuela $2.8 million

5. Ariel Ovando 2010 OF Astros 16 Dominican Republic $2.6 million

6. Rafael Rodriguez 2008 OF Giants 16 Dominican Republic $2.55 million

7. Yorman Rodriguez 2008 OF Reds 16 Venezuela $2.5 million

8. Wily Mo Pena 1999 OF Yankees 17 Dominican Republic $2.44 million

9. Joel Guzman 2001 SS Dodgers 16 Dominican Republic $2.255 million

10. Byung-Hyun Kim 1999 RHP Diamondbacks 20 South Korea $2.25 million

T-11. Phillips Castillo 2010 OF Mariners 16 Dominican Republic $2.2 million

T-11. Chin-Hui Tsao 1999 RHP Rockies 18 Taiwan $2.2 million

T-11. Renato Nunez 2010 3B Athletics 16 Venezuela $2.2 million

14. Angel Villalona 2006 3B Giants 16 Dominican Republic $2.1 million

T-15. Guillermo Pimentel 2009 OF Mariners 16 Dominican Republic $2 million

T-15. Adys Portillo 2008 OF Padres 16 Venezuela $2 million

T-15. Juan Duran 2008 OF Reds 16 Dominican Republic $2 million

 

What does all this mean? For me, I would love to see more money put into international player procurement and development. I'm not saying otherwise by any stretch. And, frankly, when July 2 rolls around, i find myself wanting to see the cubs mentioned on a big name. But there seem to be few success stories involving the big money deals paid to 16 year-old kids. I like the spread-the-money-around strategy adopted by the Cubs, given the evidence of the success rate of the big bonus deals. I would, however, like to see them more aggressive on deals for players in the 6-figure range, the kinda guys who show more potential than the rather anonymous guys they tend to sign but who also seem to have more questions or ambiguity surrounding them than the big names. And I would also like the Cubs to allocate more money to increasing the number (and possibly quality) of their international scouts, to get more looks at more players (I would also like to increase this for the Cubs' U.S. amateur scouting, a la what the Blue Jays have done).

[fromthestretch]

To be fair, a large number of these have signed in the past couple of years, so we can't really judge their success, but of that group only J. Montero seems to possess a particularly high probability of success at MLB level.

 

Not only did the vast majority of them sign in the past couple of years, they were nearly all around 16 or 17 years old when they signed. It's way too early to judge the impact of those signings. Most of those kids are still 21 or younger.

[davell]

http://www.csnchicago.com/02/08/11/Kaplan-Ricketts-aiming-to-buy-land-in-Do/kapman_article.html?blockID=406647&feedID=661

 

Looks like they're going to spend some serious money on a new facility down there.