BP Interview with Cashner

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Really good read. Talks a lot about his repertoire and his approach to pitching.

 

Link

[toonsterwu]

I really hope Cashner can increase his stamina and improve that change. Would be nice to have a guy that we can point to as a potential ace in the system.

[TruffleShuffle]

I really hope Cashner can increase his stamina and improve that change. Would be nice to have a guy that we can point to as a potential ace in the system.

 

agreed... i actually like that they drafted a guy who profiles as a very good reliever if he doesn't pan out as a starter. i'd much rather have that than a guy who is reliever or bust.

[craig]

Thanks for the link, that was a really informative interview. Reveals a lot about his thinking and what he throws.

 

Some things I liked and some things that I read as risk indicators.

 

The positive things were that he seems like a reasonable guy; that he seemed surprisingly optimistic about his change; and that he seemed positive about some adjustments he's made on his slider. And he didn't say anything really dumb.

 

Several concerns struck me, though.

*Maybe the curve is as hard or harder, but the change is super hard to control and to throw with the same arm speed. If he's depending on his change, I think it's a risky tool to depend on.

*While his fastball sounds fast, he indicated no variation or any intention to develop any. I don't think big-league hitters are going to have big problems with a straight 4-seam 92-96 fastball that has no variation, and I'm not sure that fastball is any better or necessarily even as good as somebody with a 88-92 2-seamer with some movement (particularly if the guy can vary that with some 4-seam and some cutters). Cashner gave no indication that he even tries to change speeds on it, or to mix more than an occasional 2-seam. No hint of working on cutter or the ability to fine-adjust his grip to get run when he wants it. You better have very, very good control if you want to be running a lot of predictable 93-mph 4-seamers. That he has a hittable fastball seems to fit with the observation that he doesn't K a lot of guys and that it often takes a lot of strikes to get guys out. Hitters can foul off a lot of straight, predictable fastballs.

*I was disappointed that he didn't seem very ambitious to become a good starter. His comments about how relievers can pitch every day and it's tough between starts implied he doesn't aspire to start. Likewise his goal of reaching the majors this year seems consistent more with a guy who'll be happy to be a 6th inning reliever, rather than a guy who's burning to be a star starter and spends time thinking about how he could finesse his game to enable that.

 

Probably my fault for being disappointed that he doesn't want to start and probably won't become an effective starter. I was probably hoping for too much in wishing that from him. But at times I have thought that a guy with a fast fastball that he can get over the plate; a good slider that he can mix in, get some groundouts, and get some K's with; and a decent change to mix things up, that combination could in principle be a straightforward, not too complicated recipe for an effective starter.

 

Maybe that will still happen, but it doesn't sound like Cashner or Lou or anybody has enough patience to actually enable that to happen.

[jersey cubs fan]

*While his fastball sounds fast, he indicated no variation or any intention to develop any. I don't think big-league hitters are going to have big problems with a straight 4-seam 92-96 fastball that has no variation, and I'm not sure that fastball is any better or necessarily even as good as somebody

 

A 92-96 fastball that touches 97 seems to have some variation built in, no? What more of a range do you want? If he's throwing a fastball, changeup and curve, he's changing things up.

 

And the guy had reliever written all over him from the start, so I'm not sure what the problem is.

[craig]

A 92-96 fastball that touches 97 seems to have some variation built in, no? What more of a range do you want? If he's throwing a fastball, changeup and curve, he's changing things up.

 

And the guy had reliever written all over him from the start, so I'm not sure what the problem is.

 

I don't think that 92-96 is much variation, no.

 

I think he had reliever written all over him only because he'd relieved in college, hadn't shown a 3rd pitch, and had control questions.

 

If his fastball and slider were as good as it would take to **excel** in relief, then if he added a solid change his stuff would scout like a good starter, control permitting.

 

I'm not confident that his change really is, or will become, good enough for rotation. If it doesn't, then it's obviously relief. But if his change is looking good, rotation still seems better use for him. But it's also well possible that neither he nor the Cubs have the patience to optimize that, and will settle for Cashner as a 6th inning reliever who doesn't use a change rather than waiting a little longer for Cashner to blossom into a good 6-inning starter who needs a change.

 

As for fastball, every pitcher has some speed variation for sure, and Cashner's range seemed no larger than normal. But many good starters intentionally provide more variation, both in speed but also in movement. If all Cashner is throwing is 92-96 4-seamers, that might not be much variation.

 

Hopefully that isn't the case. I inferred that he rarely throws his 2-seamer. But if he throws a fair number of them they would provide variation in speed and in movement. It's also possible that there is some variation within his 4-seamers, between the low 4-seamers and the up-the-ladder 4-seamers. Given how few HR's he allowed, I assume he must have pretty good movement when he elevates his fastball. Maybe he's working on a cutter but didn't mention it. Who knows.

 

The ideal starter has a good, effective, variable fastball that he can throw for strikes, that sustains life, and that has enough variations so that it's still effective three times through the lineup. Fastballs are the easiest to throw for strikes, to get quick outs, to control counts. If a guy can get away with throwing a lot of fastball strikes without getting hammered, and then mix in changes and sliders, often as putaway pitches, that can be ideal for a real value starter. Not sure if Cashner's fastball is starter-quality, or if his change will ever be. Maybe it was naive to ever hope for that much.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think he had reliever written all over him only because he'd relieved in college, hadn't shown a 3rd pitch, and had control questions.

 

That's not "only", that's the whole point.

[craig]

I think he had reliever written all over him only because he'd relieved in college, hadn't shown a 3rd pitch, and had control questions.

 

That's not "only", that's the whole point.

 

That's a flawed point. Zambrano relieved in the minors, had control questions, and hadn't shown a 3rd pitch of merit, but became a very valuable starter. Dempster had relieved, had control questions, and hadn't shown a 3rd pitch in 5 or 6 years, but became a very valuable starter.

 

Cashner has started in the pros, has shown a 3rd pitch, and has shown improving control. (His control compares reasonably with most rotation prospects of his age and experience.)

 

So if you had "reliever" written all over him when he was drafted, mightn't it be reasonable to erase that now? Unless you'd prefer to use your good pitchers as 60-inning relievers rather than 180+ inning starters?

[TruffleShuffle]

I think he had reliever written all over him only because he'd relieved in college, hadn't shown a 3rd pitch, and had control questions.

 

That's not "only", that's the whole point.

 

That's a flawed point. Zambrano relieved in the minors, had control questions, and hadn't shown a 3rd pitch of merit, but became a very valuable starter. Dempster had relieved, had control questions, and hadn't shown a 3rd pitch in 5 or 6 years, but became a very valuable starter.

 

Cashner has started in the pros, has shown a 3rd pitch, and has shown improving control. (His control compares reasonably with most rotation prospects of his age and experience.)

 

So if you had "reliever" written all over him when he was drafted, mightn't it be reasonable to erase that now? Unless you'd prefer to use your good pitchers as 60-inning relievers rather than 180+ inning starters?

 

zambrano relieved in the minors because the cubs' bullpen sucked and they were looking for immediate help. he always threw hard and maintained his velocity well into ballgames. he wasn't a reliever in the minors because they thought he couldn't cut it as a starter.

[craig]

zambrano relieved in the minors because the cubs' bullpen sucked and they were looking for immediate help. he always threw hard and maintained his velocity well into ballgames. he wasn't a reliever in the minors because they thought he couldn't cut it as a starter.

 

True points for sure. But, some are tangentally similar to Cashner.

1. Cashner like Z will get rushed over to relief in part because the Cubs are again desperate and looking for immediate help. He hasn't shown (at least not yet) that he might not be able to cut it as a starter.

2. Second, like Z Cashner throws hard, and by report has sustained his velocity as a starter. Granted, he's only been allowed to sustain it to the tune of 85 pitches. (And granted, his velocity isn't as good as Z's was back then).

3. I didn't watch his games, so I can't testify. But according to BA reports, they scouted Zambrano entering his relief stretch as having a wonderful fastball but weren't too keen on even a second pitch, much less a third, at the time he moved to relief. I don't think they rated his slider as favorably as they have (at times) rated Cashner's.

4. Cashner relieved in college because he was a 1st-year transfer guy, they already had two weekend starters, and they needed reliever. It wasn't because he'd shown he couldn't cut it as a starter.

 

Listen, I'm not saying Cashner could become as good as Z if the Cubs stick with him as a starter, or that he throws as hard. That would be ridiculous.

 

All I'm saying is that the fact that he was a good college reliever for a couple of months doesn't prove whether he could or couldn't make it as a starter. Nor does the fact that, like lots of amateurs, he didn't need or have a 3rd pitch.

 

He's in the same situation as most other rotation prospects who are a couple years into the pros. They've got some good raw stuff; some of their 2nd or 3rd pitches sometimes look good but aren't big-league consistent; if they don't get better or more consistent they won't become all-star starters, if their command continues to improve they might. Maybe they'll get better enough to make it big; usually they won't.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think he had reliever written all over him only because he'd relieved in college, hadn't shown a 3rd pitch, and had control questions.

 

That's not "only", that's the whole point.

 

That's a flawed point. Zambrano relieved in the minors,

 

That's a ridiculous comparison. Zambrano started 24 games at age 18 in A ball and was pretty decent, playing pro ball. He went into the pen for a bit the next year, but it was always noted that he could maintain high 90's into the late innings. And at age 20 he started 24 more games in AAA. Cashner was a nothing prospect as a starter and only got hype once he went to the pen. Cashner and Zambrano are horrible comparisons for career path. Cashner has shown absolutely no ability to be an actual starter, unless you just want to get 4-5 innings out of him every time. Cashner is 22 years old and averaged 4.2 innings in 24 starts this year. Zambrano made 32 starts in the major leagues at 22, pitching 214 innings.

[CUBZ99]

I think he had reliever written all over him only because he'd relieved in college, hadn't shown a 3rd pitch, and had control questions.

 

That's not "only", that's the whole point.

 

That's a flawed point. Zambrano relieved in the minors,

 

That's a ridiculous comparison. Zambrano started 24 games at age 18 in A ball and was pretty decent, playing pro ball. He went into the pen for a bit the next year, but it was always noted that he could maintain high 90's into the late innings. And at age 20 he started 24 more games in AAA. Cashner was a nothing prospect as a starter and only got hype once he went to the pen. Cashner and Zambrano are horrible comparisons for career path. Cashner has shown absolutely no ability to be an actual starter, unless you just want to get 4-5 innings out of him every time. Cashner is 22 years old and averaged 4.2 innings in 24 starts this year. Zambrano made 32 starts in the major leagues at 22, pitching 214 innings.

 

Your talking about a time period where the Cubs weren't implementing strict pitch counts. We have no idea how long deep Cashner is capable of going in games, because the Cubs have determined it isn't important at this point.

 

Looking at his stats this year, it is easy to see to see that Cashner has the potential to be an above average starter. His numbers, when the Cubs let him pitch, are pretty good. About the only thing he doesn't have going for him are ridiculous strikeout numbers in AA. His WHIP was a very respectable 1.11 in High A and 1.23 in AA, and that was driven mainly by a high level of walks. So the batters clearly weren't squaring up the ball very well.

 

Either way, that is a pretty good position to be at, when your perceived floor is being a dominant reliever.

[craig]

I think he had reliever written all over him only because he'd relieved in college, hadn't shown a 3rd pitch, and had control questions.

 

That's not "only", that's the whole point.

 

That's a flawed point. Zambrano relieved in the minors,

 

That's a ridiculous comparison. Zambrano started 24 games at age 18 in A ball and was pretty decent, playing pro ball. He went into the pen for a bit the next year, but it was always noted that he could maintain high 90's into the late innings. And at age 20 he started 24 more games in AAA. Cashner was a nothing prospect as a starter and only got hype once he went to the pen. Cashner and Zambrano are horrible comparisons for career path. Cashner has shown absolutely no ability to be an actual starter, unless you just want to get 4-5 innings out of him every time. Cashner is 22 years old and averaged 4.2 innings in 24 starts this year. Zambrano made 32 starts in the major leagues at 22, pitching 214 innings.

 

You are refining your argument, which is fine. But you originally argued that Cashner had reliever written all over him, and the whole point was because he had relieved, and at the time that he relieved he didn't have a 3rd pitch, and there were questions about his control.

 

Coming out of his relief period, Z had pitched more innings (56 at Iowa) than Cashner did at Texas Christian. Your second aspect, the scouting reports coming off of Z's relief period did not confirm any 3rd pitch (and questioned whether he had even a 2nd pitch). Your third aspect, questions about control, Z had walked 40 guys in 56 innings, if you go back to that point in time there were absolutely questions about his control. I am suggesting that the three points (he's relieved; he doesn't have 3; he's wild) could have been used to write reliever all over Zambrano. In retrospect, it is very fortunate that the Cubs didn't write reliever all over Zambrano, and got him back into rotation.

 

There were context circumstances that certainly were relevant in why they shouldn't have written reliever all over him. He had shown that he could sustain his velocity through high pitch count starts, and he was young enough that there was time for both his control and his 3rd pitch to come along.

 

I think it's appropriate to consider case-by-case of context circumstances to Cashner. It would have proven premature to write Z off as a starter after his relief summer. Might it be premature to write Cashner off as a starter and decide that the pen is his only future now?

 

Cashner's circumstances context are well known; he didn't get fast (95+) until age 21. He relieved at TCU because he was a 1st-year guy and they had established starters. He strained his oblique in Mesa so came back late and was built up with caution. Cubs don't let any pitcher throw 100+ pitches anymore even when built up. Cashner didn't need the change until the pros.

 

It's just my opinion, but those circumstances allow for the possibility that IF they stick with him, and IF his command progresses, that he might possibly become an excellent starter.

 

Is it probable that he works out as a really good starter, no. But I think it is possible enough that I for one would certainly like to give it more time before writing reliever all over him in permanent ink.

Edited January 27, 2010 by craig

[jersey cubs fan]

I didn't say anything about scouting reports, I said you glossing over the big reason why he's considered a likely reliever just doesn't make any sense. He's not at all comparable to Zambrano who had a much, much, much greater starter's resume up to similar points in their career.

[CUBZ99]

It is interesting to listen to Hendry lately and read stories regarding the Cub's opinion re: Cashner. Also, during a recent interview Cashner stated that they told him that he is in the competition for the 5th starter spot and the bullpen. I think I'm going to go with him as my surprise pick to make it on the Club out of spring training.

[craig]

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=362735&src=152

 

"Piniella said this spring Cashner's future likely is as a starter. "

 

Cashner: "I'd say the command of my fastball is getting better," he said. "I've always got room to work on the slider. My slider is one of my better pitches, but my changeup's come a long, long way. I rely on it a lot now. I feel like I'm able to throw it for strikes a lot, and that's what I use against lefties a lot."

[Cubs Fan Dan]

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=362735&src=152

 

"Piniella said this spring Cashner's future likely is as a starter. "

 

Cashner: "I'd say the command of my fastball is getting better," he said. "I've always got room to work on the slider. My slider is one of my better pitches, but my changeup's come a long, long way. I rely on it a lot now. I feel like I'm able to throw it for strikes a lot, and that's what I use against lefties a lot."

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=362735&src=152

 

"Piniella said this spring Cashner's future likely is as a starter. "

 

Cashner: "I'd say the command of my fastball is getting better," he said. "I've always got room to work on the slider. My slider is one of my better pitches, but my changeup's come a long, long way. I rely on it a lot now. I feel like I'm able to throw it for strikes a lot, and that's what I use against lefties a lot."

 

then leave him in the minors to start! I cannot wait for Cashner either but Gaub is the guy we need in the pen. Guz, Grabow, Gaub, Marmol, Caridad and whatever is left from the rotation competition is good with me.