NSBB Prospect Rankings

[Guest]

Assuming Vitters and McNutt graduate before they're able to achieve #1 status, I'd suggest a few guys besides the ones Outshined_One had (some of whom have been mentioned):

 

Vogelbach

Wells

Jae-Hoon Ha

Golden

 

And if you want to go really obscure, Luis Enrique Acosta and Mark Malave.

 

What do you perceive Ha's ceiling to be? He's one of the more divisive prospects in this system. I can't see him being more than Marlon Byrd at the plate, although he can be Shin-Soo Choo in RF.

 

For Ha to be the #1 prospect in an improved system, his power would have to continue to improve far beyond Marlon Byrd-levels. He has the potential to hit 25+ in a season though I think he'll probably only do that in career high seasons (especially if power continues to trend down).

 

Oh, I know Ha would have to improve the power. I was mostly asking what you thought the liklihood of that happening is. I think he's a 15 HR guy, tops. Lots of doubles, though. He doesn't have a build that will be easy to add bulk to. I just don't think, even in the best case scenario, that Jae-Hoon Ha could be the team's #1 prospect (assuming the rest of the prospects continue on a normal development path).

 

I agree that it's not likely Ha turns into a 20+ HR guy but I also think it's unlikely Golden will make enough contact to end up being a #1 prospect in the system. But both possess the talent to be able to push past their defeciencies, even if the chances are slim.

 

I don't see the Ha-Frenchy comps. Ha doesn't have the contact issues Francouer does.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

What're the thoughts on LeMahieu by most here? Anything besides "he only hits for BA, and the hope is that he hits for more power and/or starts walking" is welcome. I think he's a legit long term 2B option, offensively and defensively.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Just to throw out a top 10 list out of boredom...I think I'll do a top 30 early in the offseason:

 

B. Jackson

McNutt

Vitters

Szczur

LeMahieu (How can you watch this guy play and hit and not be a fan? Arguably the most underrated talent in a system filling up on the stuff. Power will come IMO, and despite the dearth of walks I like the approach he shows at the plate. Won't come into himself as a player until he's in the 24-26 range. Athleticism and defense are also assets of his that gets underrated. I sound like a [expletive] fanboy.)

Carpenter (could probably be flip flopped with LeMahieu)

Ha

Flaherty (Not as good offensively as this season suggests, but should be a useful player in the mold of a Mark DeRosa.)

Lake

Beliveau (High octane LHP bullpen arm with big K potential. Has actually improved his K/9 and BB/9 numbers moving up to AA this year. Very talented for what he is, if that makes sense and I hope it does.)

 

Really, all these guys are trade bait. There's no must keep talent here, but that isn't to say there isn't a whole lot of talent looking to make noise. I like this year's top 10 better than last year's top 10 already, and I haven't even made it yet.

[toonsterwu]

I was a big fan of Carpenter ... but that's awfully high on a guy who's slated for pen duty and has had an insanely horrid year with his walks. He's still got late inning potential, sure, but it's awful hard for me to put a pen arm in a top 10, even a weak top 10, unless it's a truly elite guy, and I'm not sold Carpenter is an elite guy. He could be a very good closer if he gets the control settled enough, but it's just such a mess this year for him.

[davell]

WGW, no Baez, Maples, or Vogelbach? As far as Lake goes, I recognize the immense potential, but until he puts up that kind of line for more than a month, I'll have a really hard time putting him high on a list due to the extremely high bust factor.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

WGW, no Baez, Maples, or Vogelbach? As far as Lake goes, I recognize the immense potential, but until he puts up that kind of line for more than a month, I'll have a really hard time putting him high on a list due to the extremely high bust factor.

 

I'll throw in draft guys at the end of the season.

 

Lake got on because he's 21, loaded with tools, put up an .834 OPS as a SS in the FSL with 21 XBHs in in 216 PA, got to AA, and looks to be finishing strong.

 

Toonster, I think Carpenter falls into the category of Beliveau and Castillo, where they're very talented for what they're projected to be. He's got the potential to be a high end reliever, and in today's game that's a very valuable pitcher. He reminds me of Scott Williamson when he was with the Reds, but he might be able to close. As far as a weak top ten, maybe that's relative. I think that literally all 10 of those guys will make the big leagues.

[toonsterwu]

The hard part I have in ranking this system is this - I'd like to push some of the upside guys higher than the floor guys (relatively speaking), but I wish some of them were doing a bit better. Peralta's young, but you'd like to see some more consistent flashes of the potential. Cruz/Liria have been too inconsistent, and Wang is arguably doing better than those two, but his ceiling isn't as high, IMO. Another issue I'm running into is that some of the lower level guys may be mildly more intriguing than some of the upper level guys, but is the difference enough to justify giving them higher rankings?

[toonsterwu]

Still toying around with my list, but I sort of like my top 15 right now so I figured I'd post it to get some feedback. Tossing on some grades as I planned on posting it at Sickels and everyone loves grades over there.

 

1. Brett Jackson, B+.

2. Javier Baez, B.

3. Matt Szczur, B-.

4. Trey McNutt, B-.

5. Dae-Eun Rhee, B-.

6. Dillon Maples, B-.

 

* quick thought - I'm really somewhat tempted to slide Rhee up to 3rd.

 

7. Ben Wells, C+. Getting the GB's, still love his ceiling. I believe the secondary pitches will develop. Tempted to go a half grade higher on Wells. Personally still prefer him to Maples.

8. Josh Vitters, C+.

9. Marco Hernandez, C+. I'm not sure I love putting him this high, but his ceiling as a potential starting caliber shortstop who has above average offense for the position is tough to ignore.

10. Ryan Flaherty, C+.

11. Welington Castillo, C+.

12. Jeffry Antigua, C+. Going back and forth on Antigua/Castillo order.

13. Robert Whitenack, C+/*. I could go a number of ways with Whitenack and still find it believable.

14. Jae-Hoon Ha, C+.

15. Dan Vogelbach, C+.

 

Realistically, the difference from 7 to say, 30, isn't huge in the system right now and I think you could argue for guys in a number of ways.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

The hard part I have in ranking this system is this - I'd like to push some of the upside guys higher than the floor guys (relatively speaking), but I wish some of them were doing a bit better. Peralta's young, but you'd like to see some more consistent flashes of the potential. Cruz/Liria have been too inconsistent, and Wang is arguably doing better than those two, but his ceiling isn't as high, IMO. Another issue I'm running into is that some of the lower level guys may be mildly more intriguing than some of the upper level guys, but is the difference enough to justify giving them higher rankings?

 

If I like a player enough, they'll rank higher than expected. I think I'll have Pin-Chieh Chen higher than most this year, and you'll almost universally see Baez and Vogelbach in everyone's top 10 and/or 15. If you see a talent you like, then call it out. '

[toonsterwu]

Well, that brings forth a whole different issue - does one rank for how one likes the players, or does one try to rank according to some generalized perspective on skills/ability by accounting for numerous factorss such as risk and value? I tend to always lean towards the latter a bit, but everything is subjective.

 

Anyhow, I understand where you are coming from. We just have different approaches to ranking guys.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Well, that brings forth a whole different issue - does one rank for how one likes the players, or does one try to rank according to some generalized perspective on skills/ability by accounting for numerous factorss such as risk and value? I tend to always lean towards the latter a bit, but everything is subjective.

 

Anyhow, I understand where you are coming from. We just have different approaches to ranking guys.

 

I listen to general scouting reports and take what I can out of the stats. I also things like athleticism, pedigree, defensive ability, and so on.

 

It's kind of bs, and rankings are more about getting names out than anything else IMO. I try to explain my ranking in ranking anyway.

[Hrubes20]

The hard part I have in ranking this system is this - I'd like to push some of the upside guys higher than the floor guys (relatively speaking), but I wish some of them were doing a bit better. Peralta's young, but you'd like to see some more consistent flashes of the potential. Cruz/Liria have been too inconsistent, and Wang is arguably doing better than those two, but his ceiling isn't as high, IMO. Another issue I'm running into is that some of the lower level guys may be mildly more intriguing than some of the upper level guys, but is the difference enough to justify giving them higher rankings?

 

Couldn't agree more. This is the most difficult list I've ever put together for a Cubs farm. For instance, I still rank McNutt #2. The stuff is still all there, and it's quite obvious the myriad of injuries he's sustained have destroyed his numbers. I believe it was Callis that said that his future looks the same now as it did at the end of last season. I also might catch some flack, but I rank Szczur 4th. I'm still working on the list (doing a top 50), but the 7-30 spots have been incredibly difficult.

[toonsterwu]

I have a list I sort of like, but am tinkering with it. I'll be honest, I've given strong consideration to Dae-Eun Rhee at 2. I was impressed with what I saw earlier this year, and with JJ Cooper's comments a week or so, it definitely has me pondering it. One big concern I had when I saw him was whether or not he could consistently work deep into games, but he's been doing that over the last few months. I just don't love McNutt that much, even though I've seen flashes of the plus fast/plus breaking ball/solid change. That said, there's very little justification for me to go with Rhee over McNutt, outside of gut feeling, so I won't do it. McNutt's at a higher level, has shown flashes of a deeper overall arsenal, and has a better physical build.

 

One thing I'd love to do, but just can't find enough justification to do it, is to put Ben Wells top 6 (granted, I have him 7th right now, so not a significant difference). There's a ton I love about him, but I'll keep Maples ahead for now due to the expectations on Maples stuff coming out of the gate.

[WeGotWood98]

I have a list I sort of like, but am tinkering with it. I'll be honest, I've given strong consideration to Dae-Eun Rhee at 2. I was impressed with what I saw earlier this year, and with JJ Cooper's comments a week or so, it definitely has me pondering it. One big concern I had when I saw him was whether or not he could consistently work deep into games, but he's been doing that over the last few months. I just don't love McNutt that much, even though I've seen flashes of the plus fast/plus breaking ball/solid change. That said, there's very little justification for me to go with Rhee over McNutt, outside of gut feeling, so I won't do it. McNutt's at a higher level, has shown flashes of a deeper overall arsenal, and has a better physical build.

 

One thing I'd love to do, but just can't find enough justification to do it, is to put Ben Wells top 6 (granted, I have him 7th right now, so not a significant difference). There's a ton I love about him, but I'll keep Maples ahead for now due to the expectations on Maples stuff coming out of the gate.

 

Rhee over McNutt is hard to do, but he's had a strong season. Has he come all the way back from his surgery? The numbers are solid this year, but he hasn't shown McNutts ability to dominate like McNutt did last year.

 

Wells will be up there in time. One of the better sleepers in the system...I expect he'll move slowly but surely through the system as he's got to get in better shape/condition.

[Guest]

Rhee in the top 2 or 3 is too high for me. I certainly don't see the argument for him in favor of McNutt (I know you came to the same conclusion, I'm just agreeing on that end). And I'm probably the biggest Rhee fan on here.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

"He runs average, plays the game well and is going to have some power down the road," Wilken said of LeMahieu. "But it's going to be a few years. It's going to be three to four years in my mind before you see that he has that kind of pop."

"He handled the bat really good in the Cape Cod League (last) summer. He hits the ball really well to the other side of the field. When you know you've got a guy that can hit the ball the other way that well ... the hitting instructors will tell you that nine times out of 10, this guy will have a chance to pull the ball with authority as he gets older and stronger."

 

Found this tidbit on LeMahieu from Wilken back in '09. As my favorite prospect in the system (note: this doesn't mean anything but personal favorite, not top or best or highest upside or anything but favorite) I feel the need to throw it out there.

 

3-4 years would mean about 2012/2013, no? I expect the same. I agree with his commentary in the second paragraph, and we've seen signs of that pull power coming in this year (in that he's been more willing to pull in the first place).

 

This guy is one of the best sleepers in the minors IMO. I legitimately believe he's got starter upside in the long run, preferably at 2B.

[CubsWin]

"He runs average, plays the game well and is going to have some power down the road," Wilken said of LeMahieu. "But it's going to be a few years. It's going to be three to four years in my mind before you see that he has that kind of pop."

"He handled the bat really good in the Cape Cod League (last) summer. He hits the ball really well to the other side of the field. When you know you've got a guy that can hit the ball the other way that well ... the hitting instructors will tell you that nine times out of 10, this guy will have a chance to pull the ball with authority as he gets older and stronger."

 

Found this tidbit on LeMahieu from Wilken back in '09. As my favorite prospect in the system (note: this doesn't mean anything but personal favorite, not top or best or highest upside or anything but favorite) I feel the need to throw it out there.

 

3-4 years would mean about 2012/2013, no? I expect the same. I agree with his commentary in the second paragraph, and we've seen signs of that pull power coming in this year (in that he's been more willing to pull in the first place).

 

This guy is one of the best sleepers in the minors IMO. I legitimately believe he's got starter upside in the long run, preferably at 2B.

I want LeMaheiu to remind me of Ryne Sandberg but with 10-15 HR potential. I'm just not sure he does. I like his ability to consistently hit for average. I'm waiting and seeing on the other stuff...

[CubsWin]

Rhee in the top 2 or 3 is too high for me. I certainly don't see the argument for him in favor of McNutt (I know you came to the same conclusion, I'm just agreeing on that end). And I'm probably the biggest Rhee fan on here.

This suffers from SSS, but I think we can put more weight on how a minor leaguer finishes a season, especially one at a new level, than say a major league veteran because they're still learning, adjusting and coming into form.

 

Rhee over his last 6 starts has gone 38 IP, 32 H, 9 ER, 8 BB and 41 Ks for a 2.13 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05 while averaging just over 6 innings per start. He spent much of the season having a great game, flashing that potential, and following it with several mediocre ones. 6 games might just be a hot streak, but he never put 6 games like this together all season. I think he's figured some things out.

 

I'm very interested to see how this carries over into the Southern League next season. Whitenack, too.

[jumbo]

Rhee over his last 6 starts has gone 38 IP, 32 H, 9 ER, 8 BB and 41 Ks for a 2.13 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05 while averaging just over 6 innings per start. He spent much of the season having a great game, flashing that potential, and following it with several mediocre ones. 6 games might just be a hot streak, but he never put 6 games like this together all season. I think he's figured some things out.

 

I'm very interested to see how this carries over into the Southern League next season. Whitenack, too.

 

What do you expect the rotations to be in Iowa/Tennessee next year?

Iowa: JJax, Coleman, Cabrera, Struck, Rusin

Tennessee: Rhee, Whitenack, McNutt, Antigua, Searle/Suarez/Jokisch

[Guest]

Rhee over his last 6 starts has gone 38 IP, 32 H, 9 ER, 8 BB and 41 Ks for a 2.13 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05 while averaging just over 6 innings per start. He spent much of the season having a great game, flashing that potential, and following it with several mediocre ones. 6 games might just be a hot streak, but he never put 6 games like this together all season. I think he's figured some things out.

 

I'm very interested to see how this carries over into the Southern League next season. Whitenack, too.

 

What do you expect the rotations to be in Iowa/Tennessee next year?

Iowa: JJax, Coleman, Cabrera, Struck, Rusin

Tennessee: Rhee, Whitenack, McNutt, Antigua, Searle/Suarez/Jokisch

 

I like your Iowa rotation.

 

Whitenack probably won't be ready at the start of the season and there's a chance McNutt gets bumped to Iowa with a strong AFL (I hope they stick him at Tennessee no matter what). If I had to guess, I'd say McNutt/Rhee/Antigua/Searle and one of Beeler or Jokisch (the other would be at high-A).

[sandbergcubs]

Rhee over his last 6 starts has gone 38 IP, 32 H, 9 ER, 8 BB and 41 Ks for a 2.13 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05 while averaging just over 6 innings per start. He spent much of the season having a great game, flashing that potential, and following it with several mediocre ones. 6 games might just be a hot streak, but he never put 6 games like this together all season. I think he's figured some things out.

 

I'm very interested to see how this carries over into the Southern League next season. Whitenack, too.

 

What do you expect the rotations to be in Iowa/Tennessee next year?

Iowa: JJax, Coleman, Cabrera, Struck, Rusin

Tennessee: Rhee, Whitenack, McNutt, Antigua, Searle/Suarez/Jokisch

 

I like your Iowa rotation.

 

Whitenack probably won't be ready at the start of the season and there's a chance McNutt gets bumped to Iowa with a strong AFL (I hope they stick him at Tennessee no matter what). If I had to guess, I'd say McNutt/Rhee/Antigua/Searle and one of Beeler or Jokisch (the other would be at high-A).

 

 

Where does that leave Brooks Raley?

[toonsterwu]

My hunch is either Jay Jackson is picked in Rule 5, or Alberto Cabrera is moved to the pen, opening up a spot for Raley in Iowa's rotation. Now, it's certainly possible he could move to the pen, as he might profile better in the pen anyways. My guess at the Smokies rotation to start 2012 would be Rhee, Antigua, McNutt with Searle/Jokisch/Beeler battling it out for the last 2 spots.

 

I'm very interested to see what a new GM decides for the intriguing arms in Peoria/Boise. Assuming no one is "pushed" to Daytona that would be a mild surprise as of now (say, a Starling Peralta or Luis Liria), the options in Daytona look average to start 2012, something along the lines of Kirk/Del Valle/Loosen/Hicks/Rosscup/Harman. I guess it's possible Lorick is back in the mix there, but he really should be in the pen if he's still in the organization. Actually, too many lefties for Daytona, so a righty probably works his way into the mix there along with Loosen.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I want LeMaheiu to remind me of Ryne Sandberg but with 10-15 HR potential. I'm just not sure he does. I like his ability to consistently hit for average. I'm waiting and seeing on the other stuff...

 

Same here. He's not someone I'd hang my non-existent rep on, but I do think this guy is a player. The next couple of years will be huge for him and where he goes.

[Guest]

My hunch is either Jay Jackson is picked in Rule 5, or Alberto Cabrera is moved to the pen, opening up a spot for Raley in Iowa's rotation. Now, it's certainly possible he could move to the pen, as he might profile better in the pen anyways. My guess at the Smokies rotation to start 2012 would be Rhee, Antigua, McNutt with Searle/Jokisch/Beeler battling it out for the last 2 spots.

 

I'm very interested to see what a new GM decides for the intriguing arms in Peoria/Boise. Assuming no one is "pushed" to Daytona that would be a mild surprise as of now (say, a Starling Peralta or Luis Liria), the options in Daytona look average to start 2012, something along the lines of Kirk/Del Valle/Loosen/Hicks/Rosscup/Harman. I guess it's possible Lorick is back in the mix there, but he really should be in the pen if he's still in the organization. Actually, too many lefties for Daytona, so a righty probably works his way into the mix there along with Loosen.

 

I hope they give Cabrera a crack at the rotation one more time and move Raley to the pen.

 

At Daytona, I see Kirk/Del Valle/Harman/Loosen and the loser of Jokisch/Beeler. I could see Liria cracking Daytona too, and as you mentioned, Rosscup if he's healthy.

 

I think Hicks would repeat at Peoria. There's also AJ Morris to consider.

 

A lot of these things figure themselves out with injuries and whatnot but there does appear to be a bit of depth at Daytona (and Peoria/Boise).

[toonsterwu]

My ridiculously early, and pointless, gut feeling is that if Jokisch is the loser of the battle in AA for a spot (based off both of us thinking that it could be Searle/Jokisch/Beeler ... for all we know, Harman could figure into the mix), that he might be sent to the AA pen.

 

AJ Morris as a starter? Hadn't pondered that, as I had worked it into my head that he would head to the pen. That's assuming, of course, that he is still with us when minor league season starts, as he seems like the type of average guy that may be borderline. If he is around, he could be an option as a righty starter in Daytona, as that unit is heavily lefty, the way we have it projected right now. He's going to be in his age 24/25 season, though, so I'm not against shifting him to the pen and perhaps pondering him in AA ... if he's around.

 

I don't have a huge issue with Liria in A+, but I think he's better off in Peoria. I still wonder if I'm under-rating him, or under-hyping him, a tad. 90-93, gets up to 94/95, good slider, decent change, and decent performance this year, and yet, I can't crack him into my top 20, and don't think I'll get him into a top 25.