NSBB Prospect Rankings

[Guest]

given the guys who are graduating, archer would be pushing top 5 on my list. i'm very high on him.

 

Ditto. I have him at 5 if you take out Castro and Cashner.

 

And to answer toonsterwu's question, I can't put anyone from the Cubs' draft at #1. I wouldn't put Simpson in my top 5 even.

[toonsterwu]

I asked that before the Simpson pick. Roughly, I think I would have (off the top) my top 10 as something like

 

1. Jay Jackson.

2a. Brett Jackson

2b. Josh Vitters

 

I'd be okay ranking that top 3 in any order.

 

4. Chris Archer

5. Hak-ju Lee

6. Trey McNutt

7. Hayden Simpson (assuming he signs, which sounds likely)

8. Chris Carpenter

 

I think I'd be okay ranking the next 5 in any order as well, although I have my preferences. I really want to see Archer in AA soon to see how his pitches do against better hitters.

 

I'm not real sure what I would do for 9 and 10 right now. Could see myself putting Thomas Diamond in there, despite his age, as he's had a really nice stretch. Ryan Flaherty ... perhaps. DJ LeMahieu? Reggie Golden (if he signs?)

[rawaction]

Archer's batting average against has gone down at every level so far. And that's while maintaining his K rate and GB/FB ratio. Very intrigued by him. I'm sure he'll be at AA at some point this summer.

[davell]

I figure that Kim Jin Yeoung will be ranked somewhere in our top 10, even with him not coming over until next year. You'd think so anyway, with the 1.2 mill bonus.......Lee was ranked in our top 10 before he came over, if I remember correctly.

 

Personally, I think I'd go like this right now:

 

1 B Jackson

2 J Jackson

3 Lee

4 Vitters

5 Archer

6 McNutt

7 Carpenter

8 Rhee

9 Flaherty

10 Coleman

[Guest]

If Castro and Cashner are out and we assume Simpson signs:

 

1. Josh Vitters

2. Jay Jackson

3. Brett Jackson

4. Hak-Ju Lee

5. Chris Archer

6. Chris Carpenter

7. Trey McNutt

8. Hayden Simpson

9. Ryan Flaherty

10. Kim-Jin Yeong

 

Dae-Eun Rhee is at 11 in case Simpson doesn't sign.

[toonsterwu]

Still messing around with a mid-season prospect ranking, but this is how I roughly have my top 30 as of now

 

1. Brett Jackson

2. Jay Jackson

3. Josh Vitters

 

4. Chris Archer

5. Hak-ju Lee

6. Kenneth McNutt

7. Chris Carpenter

8. Hayden Simpson (if he signs)

 

9. Jin-Yeong Kim

10. Ryan Flaherty

11. Reggie Golden (if he signs)

12. Casey Coleman

13. Thomas Diamond

14. Chris Rusin

15. Dae-Eun Rhee

16. Welington Castillo

17. DJ LeMahieu

18. Rafael Dolis

19. Kyler Burke

20. Micah Gibbs (if he signs)

21. Logan Watkins

22. Robinson Chirinos

23. John Gaub

24. Brian Schlitter

25. David Cales

26. Brooks Raley

27. Aaron Shafer

28. Jeffry Antigua

29. Darwin Barney

30. Larry Suarez

 

Close: Juan Yasser Serrano, Matt Cerda, Blake Parker, Austin Kirk, Ben Wells (if he signs)

 

I fee like I should get Kirk in there somewhere, but I'm not sure where. Anyhow, the only part I feel relatively comfortable about is the top 8, and even there, I'm wondering if I should slider Hayden Simpson up a notch.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If we cant use Cashner anymore, although he really needs to be back in Iowa starting the way hes been used lately, heres how mine stck up. I guess I really dont use the system most use, more how closely I watch them.

 

1. Brett Jackson

2. Jay Jackson

3. Trey McNutt

4. Josh Vitters

5. Chris Carpenter

6. Chris Archer

7. Hak Ju Lee

8. Thomas Diamond

9. Casey Coleman

10. Brooks Raley

 

Others I track regularly: Schafer, Watkins, Spencer, Dolis, Rhee, Castillo,

[davell]

For anyone that doesn't at least check out minorleagueball.com, Frankie Piliere(former scout and current baseball writer) stopped by to answer a few questions regarding his most recent top 25 list. Which does NOT have Brett Jackson on it, but DOES have Hak Ju Lee sitting at number 23.(Jackson was among his final cuts) He answers a few questions about Lee in the fanposts section too. Pretty interesting stuff.

[VicCub]

I would appreciate it if someone would do an updated top 10 Cub prospect list for this season. I know that Archer and Lee are gone but I forget who else left and who all is coming up. Thanks.

[Little Slide Rooter]

My current, short sighted top 10 list, mainly pertaining to perfomrance so far this year

 

1A. Brett Jackson

1B. Trey McNutt

(when dealing with a top pitching and PP prospect, its tough to decide whose 1 and 2)

3. Ryan Flaherty-I will be criticized for this one, but the guy has looked great this year

4. Rob Whitenack

5. Josh Vitters

6. Matt Szcur

7. David LaMehieu

8. Jae Hoon Ha

9. Aaron Kursz

10. Justin Bour

[toonsterwu]

I'm still messing around with mine in my spare time, but I think it'd be

 

1. Brett Jackson - Still think he'll be a 3-4 WAR CF sooner than later. He may move to the corners eventually, but at least, through most of his cost-controlled years, I think he'll play CF unless someone better comes along.

2. Trey McNutt - I gotta say, I've got some mild concerns on how effective that changeup is. All that said, he's performing well and still has a possible ceiling of a 2 type starter.

3. Robert Whitenack - I'm a big turbo sinker guy, provided they have good secondary options. Whitenack has capable secondary options, and a sinker that peaks in the mid-90's is a tantalizing go to pitch. I don't think he has McNutt's ceiling as a starter (view his ceiling more as a 3, possibly more of a 4), but I do think he might be safer than McNutt, as a starter.

4. Matt Szczur - I was debating this spot longer than I should have. This is more an upside nod, but most people believe he will develop power, and I just like his approach a ton better than Ha's.

5. Jae-Hoon Ha - I just don't like the K/BB, but he's toolsy and performing. Maybe he's an exception and not the rule. Only time will tell.

6. Ryan Flaherty - He cooled off for a stretch, but bounced back with a great run of late. He's got a good approach, hits righties and lefties. He has legit power and I'm not concerned if he's in a corner spot (as it relates to his power playing there. Problem is, where does he play? If he's good enough, he'll find a spot. 3rd makes some sense, corner OF works as well. I think the best move is to shift Flaherty to Iowa, so that Ryan and DJ can both get more 3rd base time (rather than the two of them rotating with Vitters at AA, Ryan could rotate with Marquez at AAA).

7. DJ LeMahieu - Tempted to put him 4th, as the power development is promising, enough to make me think his bat could play at 3rd if they opted that route (and it'd be a good bat at 2nd).

8. Josh Vitters - He's got a higher ceiling than LeMahieu/Flaherty overall, a better offensive ceiling than most in the system, but I want to see some positive offensive consistency.

9. Nick Struck - Debated Struck or Kirk as a pitcher at my back end of the top 10, and went with Struck first because I think he's got a higher ceiling than Kirk and he's performing well at a higher level.

10. Justin Bour - I'm still very ... curious ... as to how "real" things are, but there's no statistical anomaly, the swing looks good from what I've heard (in regards to plane and approach).

 

I look at the system as a top 2, with 3-7 pretty interchangeable. If Vitters show positive offensive consistency, I'd slide him up a fair amount, but I'm happy with slotting him 8th for now. A lot of people could fit into the 9/10 spots.

[EhDubya]

Not a very diverse group of top prospects we've got.

[Outshined_One]

Changed the title of the thread to reflect the recent posts.

 

My Pre-Draft Top 10 looks something like this...

 

1) Brett Jackson - Good year in spite of injuries, still a Top 30 prospect in baseball, imo.

2) Trey McNutt - Sliding due to all the nagging injuries. The talent's there, he just needs to stay healthy.

3) Matt Szczur - Rising fast. Would like to see more power, but everything else looks solid to outstanding so far.

4) Josh Vitters - Still a believer, but he's been decidedly mediocre in AA so far.

5) Jae-Hoon Ha - He held his own in a short stint in AA, but he still needs to work on taking walks.

6) Robert Whitenack - Would have been #3 on my list if he didn't have TJS. Tough break.

7) DJ LeMahieu - I'm not a huge fan of him, especially his approach, but he earned his callup.

8) Nick Struck - Quietly put up solid numbers in Daytona, curious to see how he does in AA.

9) Dallas Beeler - Seems he's recovered quite nicely from TJS; the AA promotion will be telling.

10) Micah Gibbs - Loving that 20/28 K/BB. Some power would be nice, but everything else is there for him to succeed.

 

Woof. Some decent talent among that group, but injuries have killed this system. It desperately needs an infusion of talent from the MLB Draft.

[davell]

I agree completely that our system needs an infusion with the draft, especially since I doubt we enter next year with Brett still eligible for a list. For now, my list looks like this:

 

1 Brett Jackson- Slumping some after the injury, but he's kind of streaky as it is. Think he's top 50 for sure, maybe top 25, haven't made out a full list in a while. Think he can be a .350ish OBP guy with double digit homers and plenty of steals as soon as next year for us.

 

2 Trey McNutt- Kind of an indictment that he's 2, in my opinion. I don't think his stock has dropped much, but I'll feel alot better if he comes back from this injury and pitches well the rest of the season. His innings are already going to be limited somewhat this year. Doubt he's ready for the majors before midseason next year personally. Top 100 guy, with the ability(with health) to move quite a bit anyway.

 

3 Matt Szczur- Love what he's doing and think if he continues even close to what he's doing now in Daytona, he'll be a top 75ish guy next year. Hell, I thought he was going to be a longterm project, doesn't really look that way to me now. I could see him opening in Tennessee next year at this point.

 

4 Josh Vitters- Big dropoff here, but I'm not giving up on him. His K rate is SO low, I think a little tweak and he could start making some waves possibly.

 

5 DJ LeMahieu- I think the power is developing, wish he didn't have position questions, because I think he's going to hit.

 

6 Jae Hoon Ha- Age-wise, he's doing great. Kind of mirrors Vitters from a plate discipline concern area. Looks like he'll have solid pop if he can stick in CF obviously. If he moves though, I'm thinking 4th OFer upside is all.

 

7 Dallas Beeler- Probably letting the promotion get to me a tad here, but he'd have been 9-10 anyway for me. Love his build and think he's got an excellent shot at becoming our biggest mover outside of Szczur by the time the season ends.

 

8 Micah Gibbs- The walk rate and the plus defense has me hopeful we have a future starter here.

 

9 Austin Kirk- Is it just the curve in A ball giving guys fits or is it more? His velo is OK and I'm hoping he's much more of a prospect than Rusin or Raley. The K rate has me excited and hope he gets half a year in Daytona to show us more.

 

10 Robert Whitenack- Would have been 4th on my list, but was starting to leave him off completely since he may be MIA until 2013 and figure another year of getting stuff back at that point. Maybe they move him to the pen at that stage? No idea, but it stung when I saw TJS and his name right beside it. He'd obviously had the best start to the season of any of our pitching.

 

11 Justin Bour

12 Jeff Beliveau

13 Ryan Flaherty

14 Nick Struck

15 Aaron Kurcz

16 Dae Eun Rhee

17 Kevin Rhoedrick

18 Matt Cerda

19 Rafael Dolis

20 Hayden Simpson

[Guest]

1. Brett Jackson

2. Matt Szczur

3. Trey McNutt - I don't think he really has done anything to drop but you're always wary with pitchers

4. Josh Vitters

5. Jae-Hoon Ha - that's 3 center fielders in my top 5

6. Ryan Flaherty - definitely like him more than LeMahieu, better power, patience and can play 2B or 3B

7. Robert Whitenack - had him at 5 before TJS

8. DJ LeMahieu - still not enough power for me but he is improving

9. Dallas Beeler

10. Rafael Dolis

11. Welington Castillo

12. Nick Struck

13. Aaron Kurcz

14. Jeff Beliveau

15. Reggie Golden

16. Austin Kirk

17. Ben Wells

18. Hayden Simpson

19. Alberto Cabrera

20. Justin Bour

 

Micah Gibbs' patience is nice but he's slugging .373 in A-ball as a 22-year old (23 in late July) former 3-year starter out of the SEC. He doesn't even sniff my top 20. I still think Welington Castillo is the best catching prospect in this system.

 

Hayden Simpson and Justin Bour are 2 of the hardest players for me to rate. I wonder how likely Simpson will regain his velocity as he gets further and further away from the mono and as he gains back the lost weight. I want to see Austin Kirk going up against better competition (unless his FB velocity has improved). Right now, his 4 pitch arsenal is too tough on the MWL but you have to wonder how he'll do if he's still throwing mid-80s FB against competition at higher levels.

[Outshined_One]

Micah Gibbs' patience is nice but he's slugging .373 in A-ball as a 22-year old (23 in late July) former 3-year starter out of the SEC. He doesn't even sniff my top 20. I still think Welington Castillo is the best catching prospect in this system.

 

Gibbs is old for the MWL, but I'm willing to give him a pass since catchers almost always move slower than other position prospects. He's turned things around really well since his stint in the NWL last season. He never was going to hit for much power, either. His defensive skills are sharp, his plate discipline has been good, and he's actually hitting for average. I'm hoping he gets promoted to Daytona soon to see what more he can do.

 

Castillo was also in consideration for my list, but I'm not enamored with him. I think he profiles as a backup who won't hit or defend well enough to turn heads, but who does both well enough to merit a roster spot.

 

Agreed on Bour and Simpson, by the way.

[Guest]

Kirk reminds me an awful lot of Carmen Pignatiello, who was in the system when I started following the minors heavily in 2002. At first I was really impressed with Carmen's numbers and age. Plus I was at the point where I had adopted statistical analysis to the exclusion of scouting info. His inability to consistently get out higher level hitters was my first lesson that at the lower levels of the system, scouting is at least as important as performance (and perhaps more so).

[CubColtPacer]

Kirk reminds me an awful lot of Carmen Pignatiello, who was in the system when I started following the minors heavily in 2002. At first I was really impressed with Carmen's numbers and age. Plus I was at the point where I had adopted statistical analysis to the exclusion of scouting info. His inability to consistently get out higher level hitters was my first lesson that at the lower levels of the system, scouting is at least as important as performance (and perhaps more so).

 

Shouldn't where they went in the draft be a big part of scouting in the lower minors though? The reports we get are so scattered that the vote of confidence that a scout really liked a player at one time by drafting him that high has to be worth something. And that would be a big difference between Kirk and Pignatiello.

[Guest]

Kirk reminds me an awful lot of Carmen Pignatiello, who was in the system when I started following the minors heavily in 2002. At first I was really impressed with Carmen's numbers and age. Plus I was at the point where I had adopted statistical analysis to the exclusion of scouting info. His inability to consistently get out higher level hitters was my first lesson that at the lower levels of the system, scouting is at least as important as performance (and perhaps more so).

 

Shouldn't where they went in the draft be a big part of scouting in the lower minors though? The reports we get are so scattered that the vote of confidence that a scout really liked a player at one time by drafting him that high has to be worth something. And that would be a big difference between Kirk and Pignatiello.

That is true, but the scouting reports I hear on them are very similar. Carmen showed more as a pro than he did as an amateur. I think there was more projection with Kirk, which is why his draft status was higher. As far as I know, though, Kirk hasn't really reached any of that projection yet.

 

If his velocity has increased, then I take back the comparison.

[Guest]

Kirk reminds me an awful lot of Carmen Pignatiello, who was in the system when I started following the minors heavily in 2002. At first I was really impressed with Carmen's numbers and age. Plus I was at the point where I had adopted statistical analysis to the exclusion of scouting info. His inability to consistently get out higher level hitters was my first lesson that at the lower levels of the system, scouting is at least as important as performance (and perhaps more so).

 

Shouldn't where they went in the draft be a big part of scouting in the lower minors though? The reports we get are so scattered that the vote of confidence that a scout really liked a player at one time by drafting him that high has to be worth something. And that would be a big difference between Kirk and Pignatiello.

 

As Tim said, Kirk was drafted higher because he was a projectable HS kid who scouts expected to eventually bump up in velocity. That hadn't happened as of last year and if the velocity hasn't bumped up this year (it's possible that it has), I'll remain skeptical on his ability to get more advanced hitters out.

[Vanilla Ice]

Any love for Zach Rosscup? He has put up great numbers at all his stops, so far.

[Guest]

1. Brett Jackson

2. Matt Szczur

3. Trey McNutt - I don't think he really has done anything to drop but you're always wary with pitchers

4. Josh Vitters

5. Jae-Hoon Ha - that's 3 center fielders in my top 5

6. Ryan Flaherty - definitely like him more than LeMahieu, better power, patience and can play 2B or 3B

7. Robert Whitenack - had him at 5 before TJS

8. DJ LeMahieu - still not enough power for me but he is improving

9. Dallas Beeler

10. Rafael Dolis

11. Welington Castillo

12. Nick Struck

13. Aaron Kurcz

14. Jeff Beliveau

15. Reggie Golden

16. Austin Kirk

17. Ben Wells

18. Hayden Simpson

19. Alberto Cabrera

20. Justin Bour

 

Micah Gibbs' patience is nice but he's slugging .373 in A-ball as a 22-year old (23 in late July) former 3-year starter out of the SEC. He doesn't even sniff my top 20. I still think Welington Castillo is the best catching prospect in this system.

 

Hayden Simpson and Justin Bour are 2 of the hardest players for me to rate. I wonder how likely Simpson will regain his velocity as he gets further and further away from the mono and as he gains back the lost weight. I want to see Austin Kirk going up against better competition (unless his FB velocity has improved). Right now, his 4 pitch arsenal is too tough on the MWL but you have to wonder how he'll do if he's still throwing mid-80s FB against competition at higher levels.

 

I forgot Junior Lake in here. I think I would slot him at 12.

[Outshined_One]

I think I'd slot Javier Baez in at #4 on my list, assuming he signs.

[Guest]

I think I'd slot Javier Baez in at #4 on my list, assuming he signs.

 

#3 for me.

[Scotti]

I don't have time to put together a list just yet but a few comments:

 

Prediction-Unless The Rat continues at his current pace, Baseball America will rate Javier Baez #1 in our system. They love them some buzz.

 

I see some hesitancy (ok, a lot of it) in ranking Simpson. While I don't rank injured players (Whitenack will go to my "DL" list where as a healthy Whitenack would have been top 5 even after the draft), I don't see Simpson as injured. He isn't Brownlie who lost velocity because of an injured shoulder. He is like a healthy, post TJS pitcher who is pitching his recovery year. In fact, there is less to worry about with Simpson, IMO, than with Whitenack. There is nothing structural there to prevent Simpson from recovering. With Whitenack we don't know how the recovery will go (Dempster or Rhee?). The surgery was scheduled for this past Tuesday so we don't have any updates (and the vagaries of such feedback is why all injury guys go to "my" DL).

 

I do put guys who have the "yips" (Steve Blass Disease) onto my DL but that is just a concession that their careers are, if not over, severely altered.