NSBB Prospect Rankings

[Tim]

Part one of the article is up.

 

Thanks to everyone who participated, but special thanks to O_O for organizing and then collating and editing everyone's contributions!

[Outshined_One]

It took quite a bit of effort to get this all together, but overall, I am quite happy with the results. :D

 

Looks great on the website, Tim. Thanks to everyone who participated!

[Guest]

It took quite a bit of effort to get this all together, but overall, I am quite happy with the results. :D

 

Looks great on the website, Tim. Thanks to everyone who participated!

Looks better now that I got the data tables edited in there - thanks for sending those over. :good:

[sneakypower]

i don't really get the idea that Vitters' upside is better than Castro's

 

he's not going to walk or field well at third and his power potential isn't that of a guy like Stanton or Snider

[Guest]

Comments on the remaining players and the individual rankings have also been posted now.

 

Just go to the front page and go to the "articles" link!

[Outshined_One]

I'd like to point out that Part 2 was non-exhaustive and not necessarily in order. There were a few prospects whose names slipped through for various reasons (Blake Parker, Tony Thomas, Brandon Guyer, etc) who were good, but did not make the final cut for various reasons. I'd like to emphasize this was not a slight against them in any way. We just couldn't cover everyone in detail with the time we had.

[CubbieBum]

Are you guys doing this for 2010? If so could I get involved? The minor leagues have really grown on me the last couple years and I enjoy doing things like this.

[Guest]

Are you guys doing this for 2010? If so could I get involved? The minor leagues have really grown on me the last couple years and I enjoy doing things like this.

We'll probably keep the team limited to the people who contribute the most to the knowledge base around prospects during this season. I'm open to anyone participating in the discussion next offseason who in my estimation is one of those people.

[toonsterwu]

I'm half-curious if folks would be interested in doing something like this for mid-season. It's just a passing thought as I finish up some other work late at night.

[Guest]

I'd be up for it.

[Outshined_One]

I'd be up for it, but it'd be a bit of a pain doing it after the draft. You never know who will and won't sign.

 

Something brief would be workable.

[toonsterwu]

or ... we could just do it without including the draftees.

[Guest]

You could also do it on the Signing Deadline. Or a draft day list...

[toonsterwu]

Maybe this should go somewhere else, but O_O responded to a post of mine over on Sickels, so I thought it'd be worth discussing somewhere. What would you put as our top 10 prospects right now, at this point in time? Certainly, a month is SSS overall, but there's enough to make some judgments overall.

 

Anyhow, I'd roughly have it as (I'm removing Castro, who otherwise would be 1 for me, I have a hard time seeing him maintaining rookie eligibility for next year)

 

Top tier

 

1. Cashner.

2. B. Jackson

3. J. Vitters

 

4. J. Jackson - I'm not willing to put him in the top tier, but I also would put him a notch ahead of the other two, so I left a space there.

 

2nd tier

 

5. C. Carpenter

6. HJ Lee.

 

I think many of us can agree on that top 6 (if you include Castro, then that top 7). Pretty much the same group of guys since last offseason. Cashner gets a deserved jump, as he's showing everything he had to to buy him as a starter, while B. Jackson and Vitters are still close for me.

 

7-10 is pretty rough to sort through right now. A fair case can be made for a lot of folks, but I go with these two next

 

7. Trey McNutt. Upside/stuff/performance.

8. Dae-Eun Rhee. I'm willing to overlook the low K's for now and focus on his control.

 

9 and 10 is a mess to sort through.

 

Arm-wise, I'm not as down on Dolis as others (he doesn't have a starter's arsenal, so I can understand the low K rate), but then again, I'm not high on Dolis either. Cabrera is a brief thought. TBH, I really don't feel like I know enough to have a good grasp on whether or not top 10 is fair for him. Who else? Raley? Would be more of an upside nod considering good Raley vs. bad Raley. Antigua? Don't feel comfortable enough with that nod as of right now. Coleman? Upside seems too low to like him as a top 10. Archer? Hasn't had a strong enough start to overcome early concerns that he won't be headed to the pen sooner than later, so it's hard for me to push him top 10 when I didn't have him there in the winter.

 

Positional player wise, I'd definitely have Burke/Flaherty in the mix. That said, with the former, his struggles sure makes you wonder about the old concerns about his ability to hit at upper levels. With Flaherty, I'm not bothered with the slow start as much as I was bothered by his lack of pop in AA. Sure, maybe he should've been in A+ to start, but that says something in it's own right. LeMahieu's complete lack of power is disappointing right now, and just not top 10 material for me. Who else? Watkins is worth a thought. Still don't love him as a top 10, but perhaps. Guyer? Taking a wait and see on how the bat plays. Spencer? Not real sure how much "playable power" he has. Chirinos was a brief thought for me.

 

Right now, I'd probably plop Flaherty/Burke, in that order, reversed from winter because I feel more confident in Flaherty's ability to make it up and have a role in the bigs than I do with Burke, but really, I could go so many different ways and feel okay with it.

[Guest]

Assuming we're disqualifying Colvin, as well, as he's already nearing service time limits in the majors, then the top of the list is pretty simple in terms of tiers. We're in a lot of agreement there.

 

1) Cashner

2) Vitters

3) Brett Jackson

4) Jay Jackson

 

5) Lee

 

6) McNutt

7) Carpenter (injury concerns would drop him further for me if there were worthy players below)

 

There's a bunch of guys after this that I can't sort out. Hopefully some guys will stand out with more of the season behind them.

[Guest]

I don't like disqualifying a guy because anything can still happen (hopefully not, though). I'll try to give 2 more prospects at the end for Castro and Colvin :

 

1. Starlin Castro

2. Andrew Cashner

3. Josh Vitters

4. Brett Jackson

5. Jay Jackson

6. Hak-Ju Lee

7. Chris Carpenter

8. Tyler Colvin

9. Trey McNutt

10. Alberto Cabrera

11. Kim-Jin Yeong (his bonus nearly equals that of Lee and Rhee's combined)

12. I guess Casey Coleman

[toonsterwu]

Brett Jackson's lack of power is certainly a big ? at this point in time. It isn't for a lack of natural ability, as he clearly has said raw power. It doesn't seem like an issue of pitch recognition either.

 

Anyhow, I'd plop Castro 1 and Colvin 8 or 9 if I added them. Admittedly, forgot about Colvin earlier.

[davell]

What's crazy is unless something happens, we'll lose Colvin and Castro from our prospects fairly soon. And by the end of the season, I fully expect Cashner and probably Jay Jackson(albeit as a reliever for now) to graduate as well. A season ending top 10 is going to look TONS different than what it did at the beginning, which is good, due to graduations hopefully, but unless we have a bigtime draft and/or overseas signings galore, our system will take a backstep, in all likeihood.......

 

That said, I could see both B Jax and Vitters being top 50 guys next year and based on the recent article on Lee, even with his current struggles, I figure he's a top 100 guy as well. I'm not seeing anyone else though, who looks like they'll make a jump into that range of prospect for us this season. But, alot can change with the draft and the overseas signings.

 

On a side note, this draft should be a great indicator as to how the Ricketts family intend to run things. I'm pretty sure he had sent out a letter to season ticket holders a while back that mentioned the scouting and player development budget has been increased, so I'm hoping for some Bostonesque type overslotting and maybe stepping it up some in the Dominican possibly, and continuing our nice Pac Rim domination as well....... :D Could be too much to ask for, but I'm hoping anyway, especially since it doesn't look like we'll be needing to take on any salary at the major league level and technically COULD be selling off some parts possibly too.

[toonsterwu]

I question how much the Ricketts will significantly rock the boat with MLB's slotting system this early in their tenure. I expect an increase, but I'm not sure I'd expect anything drastic.

 

If Cashner/Castro/J. Jackson don't qualify, then the only other guys, not counting draft picks, that, as of now, might have top 100 shots on some lists (besides Vitters/B.Jax) would probably be Carpenter and McNutt. Carpenter probably needs a clean season health wise from here on out, along with good performance, to make that move.

 

A long way to go, though.

[toonsterwu]

Apologies, but I'm going to sort of use this thread for things that I can't find places to put and don't feel like it's worth starting a thread over. If there's a better place, let me know. I won't do any guy in the system, only guys that stick out (or maybe i'll just have Chirinos and be done with it).

 

So ... that Robinson Chirinos guy. Late bloomer with the bat? Even if we assume some of the bat is the benefit of experience (particularly the power), there does seem to be a big jump from what he was several years back. He's showing good discipline. Add that onto the reported solid receiving ability ... Where do you place him and what's your outlook on him?

[davell]

I figure Chirinos is a future backup catcher for us. Which is more than I thought last year at this time anyway. Is he a top 10 guy for us right now? I hope not, but depending on graduations and also the draft and international signings, along with progress or lack thereof by certain guys(Burke, LeMahieu, Flaherty, Archer, Rhee possibly and some more guys) it's possible that by the end of the year, he's at the bottom end of our top 10.

 

Of course, he could be taking the Geo approach to becoming a true prospect and if so, he'd at least become a true tradeable piece at that point. Which is what the best case scenario is for us, if you ask me, since I figure Geo is our longterm starter. Worst case though, he becomes a cheap backup.

[Guest]

Chirinos is 26 in 3 weeks, has never been above AA, and in his previous 3 seasons in AA has never OPSed over .715 there. I mean, I saw him play 2B in Lansing SEVEN years ago.

[davell]

Chirinos is 26 in 3 weeks, has never been above AA, and in his previous 3 seasons in AA has never OPSed over .715 there. I mean, I saw him play 2B in Lansing SEVEN years ago.

 

True. It doesn't mean things can't suddenly "click" for him though.(of course it's not likely) I have no idea what kind of changes he's made over the last year as far as his hitting approach goes. He's obviously not an age appropriate prospect and I don't EXPECT him to become some sort of solid hitting major league catcher for us. But, I'd give it a remote possibility at least. Catcher is a premium position and if he shows enough in AA this year, maybe he at least can become someone that is more than a throw-in on a trade.

[toonsterwu]

With the draft coming soon, I'm curious how people view how our system has progressed so far this year. With their being a decent chance that Cashner and Castro will both use up rookie eligibility by year's end (it would stun me if Cashner didn't use up the 45 days and Castro is well on his way towards the AB limit), our rankings for 2011 seem likely to change a lot. I actually think there's a decent chance that whoever our draft pick is could be the top prospect in the system.

 

I guess this is the roundabout way of getting to what people think about Vitters 64 AB's into his SL experience. If Cashner and Castro are off our lists, does Vitters top it at this moment in time, or does it go to Jay Jackson, who might not reach the number 2 ceiling that some thought he had, but looks to be a potentially solid rotation option who is close to ready. Or does it go to Brett Jackson, who seems to be slapping the ball more than he did his junior year, but is showing good discipline? Or does the upside of Hak-ju Lee at shortstop get the nod?

 

Or maybe this is just a random post I'm making because I have too much free time today.

[TruffleShuffle]

given the guys who are graduating, archer would be pushing top 5 on my list. i'm very high on him.