Castro In The Bigs Next Season?

[E.J.]

The only thing I like about this news is Theriot moving to 2b. His noodle arm and lack of range is hurting us at SS.

 

I didn't really read into it that 2010 was all that likely. If he's up in 2011 I'm not so sure I'd want Theriot still around even if he moves to 2B.

 

I should have been more specific. I didn't read that it was a given either. I'm just saying that I'd be happy with Theriot moving away from SS.

[Clem Fandango]

Rotoworld's take on the 2nd base move...

 

The Cubs have told current starting shortstop Ryan Theriot to begin preparing for a move to second base.

The Northsiders believe 19-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro is on a "fast track" to the big leagues. He has already been invited to spring training and has an outside chance of cracking the Opening Day roster in 2010. "Ryan feels like if he has to change positions and move to second base, he would have no problems," general manager Jim Hendry said Thursday. "He has made it no secret he loves the Cubs and wants to stay."

[wvcbxl]

This further suggests that the chances of a key MI acquisition seem slim, ...

 

Well, there's always Aaron Miles. :mrgreen:

[Serge]

The only thing I like about this news is Theriot moving to 2b. His noodle arm and lack of range is hurting us at SS.

 

I agree defensively it makes a lot of sense. However Theriot doesn't have the bat to handle 2b. Theriot's value is that he has a decent bat and decent glove for SS, and is making near the league minimum. While defensively he probably fits better at 2b, offensively the bar is much higher and I personally don't think he can reach it, PLUS he's about to finally start making money in arbitration. I think if/when Castro establishes himself as a major leaguer that's about when we need to start looking to trade Theriot.

[NCCubFan]

This further suggests that the chances of a key MI acquisition seem slim, ...

 

Well, there's always Aaron Miles. :mrgreen:

I refuse to acknowledge that Aaron Miles exists. He's a myth.

[XZero771679666304]

This further suggests that the chances of a key MI acquisition seem slim, ...

 

Well, there's always Aaron Miles. :mrgreen:

I refuse to acknowledge that Aaron Miles exists. He's a myth.

 

Yes, Gnomes are a myth.

[TruffleShuffle]

The only thing I like about this news is Theriot moving to 2b. His noodle arm and lack of range is hurting us at SS.

 

I agree defensively it makes a lot of sense. However Theriot doesn't have the bat to handle 2b. Theriot's value is that he has a decent bat and decent glove for SS, and is making near the league minimum. While defensively he probably fits better at 2b, offensively the bar is much higher and I personally don't think he can reach it, PLUS he's about to finally start making money in arbitration. I think if/when Castro establishes himself as a major leaguer that's about when we need to start looking to trade Theriot.

 

the mlb average for 2b last year was .271/.336/.414/.750 and at ss was .270/.326/.392/.718. that's really a pretty small difference, and when you factor in that theriot's deficiencies (lack of range, marginal arm) are less important at 2b, he becomes more valuable as a defender at that position. overall his value may decline very slightly at ss but it's really not enough of a difference to run him off the team.

[Rob]

Personally, I'd be more interested in trading Theriot when the time comes. But I am glad to see that the Cubs seem to be planning on Castro as a big part of our future, quite possibly soon. I was a bit worried we'd be thinking of trading him away while his value is high, or perhaps shifting him to 2B to accommodate our already entrenched SS.

[Serge]

The only thing I like about this news is Theriot moving to 2b. His noodle arm and lack of range is hurting us at SS.

 

I agree defensively it makes a lot of sense. However Theriot doesn't have the bat to handle 2b. Theriot's value is that he has a decent bat and decent glove for SS, and is making near the league minimum. While defensively he probably fits better at 2b, offensively the bar is much higher and I personally don't think he can reach it, PLUS he's about to finally start making money in arbitration. I think if/when Castro establishes himself as a major leaguer that's about when we need to start looking to trade Theriot.

 

the mlb average for 2b last year was .271/.336/.414/.750 and at ss was .270/.326/.392/.718. that's really a pretty small difference, and when you factor in that theriot's deficiencies (lack of range, marginal arm) are less important at 2b, he becomes more valuable as a defender at that position. overall his value may decline very slightly at ss but it's really not enough of a difference to run him off the team.

 

I probably should have emphasized the money part of it more than I did, because I think in my post I glossed over it while in my head it's a pretty big deal. I don't know if you buy into WAR and UZR and all that, but if you do then the past 3 years while Ryan Theriot's been a starter he's averaged -7 runs per year with the bat, and he's roughly a +5 run defender at SS. That, along with him playing almost every day(and also the positional bonus for SS) makes him a 2.5 WAR kind of player. A guy making league minimum producing 2.5 WAR is a pretty nice commodity. However, as a 2b he probably is a few runs better defensively, but he also loses value because of the positional adjustment from SS to 2b. As a 2b he's probably a little closer to a 2 WAR guy. And since he's about to start making decent money(I'd guess but I'm horrible at figuring out what people will get in arbitration), and since honestly I don't trust his bat, I think once Castro is up and established we'd get more value out of him trading him to a team desperate for a shortstop than he'd provide for us as a 2b. A 2.5ish win guy at league minimum is pretty big deal, but a 2ish win guy making whatever Theriot is going to make in arbitration the next few years isn't as good and I think we can do better. I didn't mean for it to sound like I want him run out of town, I just think Fontenot/Baker/etc. at 2b + whatever we'd get in a trade for Theriot is signficantly better than Theriot at 2b.

[jersey cubs fan]

The only thing I like about this news is Theriot moving to 2b. His noodle arm and lack of range is hurting us at SS.

 

I agree defensively it makes a lot of sense. However Theriot doesn't have the bat to handle 2b. Theriot's value is that he has a decent bat and decent glove for SS, and is making near the league minimum. While defensively he probably fits better at 2b, offensively the bar is much higher and I personally don't think he can reach it, PLUS he's about to finally start making money in arbitration. I think if/when Castro establishes himself as a major leaguer that's about when we need to start looking to trade Theriot.

 

the mlb average for 2b last year was .271/.336/.414/.750 and at ss was .270/.326/.392/.718. that's really a pretty small difference, and when you factor in that theriot's deficiencies (lack of range, marginal arm) are less important at 2b, he becomes more valuable as a defender at that position. overall his value may decline very slightly at ss but it's really not enough of a difference to run him off the team.

 

Is it really not that big of a difference? 32 points in OPS is a bigger difference than the one between 2B and LF and much greater than the difference between 2B and 3B. It seems to me that 32 points is a fairly big jump between positions and an important factor when determining Theriot's value (which will disappear when he starts making money).

 

Catcher and SS are the only two positions where you can afford a lack of production. The next tier, 3B, 2B, CF all require at least average MLB hitters, whereas LF, RF and 1B require incremental increases up the ladder toward great hitters.

[TruffleShuffle]

Is it really not that big of a difference?

 

yeah, it's really not, because only 10 points of it are in OBP and, as stated above, his defense also improves with a shift to 2b.

[jersey cubs fan]

Is it really not that big of a difference?

 

yeah, it's really not, because only 10 points of it are in OBP and, as stated above, his defense also improves with a shift to 2b.

 

Except when you look at how positions compare to each other on average, it is a big difference. 2B need to be better offensively than shortstop.

 

 

As Theriot enters his 30's and continues to decline off his modest peak, while at the same time getting paid more and more, his value is going to plummet to the point where it might actually make sense to just get rid of him although it would be preferred to trade him for something if at all possible.

[Rob]

A move down in the defensive spectrum probably costs Theriot about .5 WAR after you factor in his defense getting better (though in fewer chances) and the higher offensive requirements of the position.

 

Factor in that he's coming out of his peak years, and I'd probably start looking to unload him after he clears about $6 mil per season in salary. And that's assuming a complete lack of internal options, which wont be the case.

[questionmarkgrace]

Even though Theriot may have been average for a second baseman last year; his bat does seem light at that positions. Sure our defense would be good but we need so much offensive help on this team that moving him would probably help. Baker probably puts up better numbers next year in my estimations. If Castro plays he will be hitting 8th for sure. I can't stand the idea of seeing theriot, castro, and the pitcher hitting in the same inning.

[jersey cubs fan]

Factor in that he's coming out of his peak years, and I'd probably start looking to unload him after he clears about $6 mil per season in salary. And that's assuming a complete lack of internal options, which wont be the case.

 

The problem with waiting until after he makes that much money is the market dries up. I'd much rather trade Theriot too early than too late. You know you aren't going to get burned by some great playing finally putting it together.

[biittner77]

Factor in that he's coming out of his peak years, and I'd probably start looking to unload him after he clears about $6 mil per season in salary. And that's assuming a complete lack of internal options, which wont be the case.

 

The problem with waiting until after he makes that much money is the market dries up. I'd much rather trade Theriot too early than too late. You know you aren't going to get burned by some great playing finally putting it together.

 

This is really the best time to trade Theriot. The Cubs are already paying Fontenot, Baker and Miles to play 2nd base. If they move Theriot to 2nd they have to either cut Miles which costs money or trade Fontenot for little or no return. I'd rather they get a useful player for Theriot which helps offset having to pay Miles to go away.

[XZero771679666304]

Factor in that he's coming out of his peak years, and I'd probably start looking to unload him after he clears about $6 mil per season in salary. And that's assuming a complete lack of internal options, which wont be the case.

 

The problem with waiting until after he makes that much money is the market dries up. I'd much rather trade Theriot too early than too late. You know you aren't going to get burned by some great playing finally putting it together.

 

This is really the best time to trade Theriot. The Cubs are already paying Fontenot, Baker and Miles to play 2nd base. If they move Theriot to 2nd they have to either cut Miles which costs money or trade Fontenot for little or no return. I'd rather they get a useful player for Theriot which helps offset having to pay Miles to go away.

 

 

I agree. I'd deal Theriot now and let Blanco hold down SS until Castro gets here. And I don't think a Baker/Fontenot platoon would be all that bad, at least for the short term. If you let Theriot get to the 5-7M range, you drastically reduce your return, IMO.