Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-16-2009

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wow, Flaherty's OPS is up to .800. That happened quickly.

[Outshined_One]

Will someone please get Jay Jackson out of the corner? I think he's learned his lesson.

 

Vitters hit his first HR in the FSL today. Good times.

[Outshined_One]

Wow, Flaherty's OPS is up to .800. That happened quickly.

 

I was harping on the luck correction earlier in the season. Glad to see him come around. :D

[Rob]

I would really like to see Lake start to drive the ball a bit more. Our system is a heck of a lot better than a year ago that's for sure.

 

Slighty peering towards 2010 for a moment, I'm excited that, for the most part, we should probably have several intriguing guys at each full season level. Peoria looks like it could be fascinating again, although it might be a team that struggles due to youth. Most of the bats in Peoria right now should be headed to Daytona. I'm not real sure I see anyone being jumped to Tennessee. Maybe Flaherty. That said, a long way to go before next spring.

 

Two small dreams I have:

 

a) One day, our GM can stop signing a ton of washed up has beens/never was for AAA.

b) That we will be able to fill our "role players" in the big leagues with guys from the system, saving us a bunch of money in the process (certainly, I am hoping for star talent as well, but if we develop the role players, that will give us some help the next years and offer financial flexibility when contracts start coming off, rather than having to pay ridiculous amounts for middle relievers).

 

I said this in another thread, but I think that the system might be the best in the NL Central. Certainly, not something to get too excited on, but a huge step in the right direction and one that could bode well for our future.

 

I dunno... I do kinda like keeping some AAAA guys around in Iowa. Personally though, I much prefer the top prospect washouts like Koyie Hill than junkers like Trenidad Hubbard.

 

And I don't buy our system as the best in the Central. The Pirates still have a nice leg up on us, if for no other reason than Pedro Alvarez... but I'd take our system over the Reds and Brewers... and the Cards and Astros are beyond terrible right now.

[Outshined_One]

Eh, we still have a leg up on the Pirates' system. A year or two from now, I'd expect things to be different in that regard, especially given how their 2009 draft has panned out so far.

[toonsterwu]

I said this in another thread, but I think that the system might be the best in the NL Central. Certainly, not something to get too excited on, but a huge step in the right direction and one that could bode well for our future.

\

 

you may be right. pittsburgh's system is improved, houston is a joke, milwaukee is decent, the reds are below average, and the cards system sucks now that they've dealt away most of their prospects. in any case, with the payroll crunch and an aging roster, the cubs really need to draft well, sign well and develop talent from within to prevent some pretty lean years from 2010-13 or so.

 

As for the NL Central systems, I do think that all the teams are in the bottom half of systems, and perhaps the bottom third. Houston's system isn't the joke it was last year - with Castro/Lyle/Seaton, that's a solid top 3, but they lack depth. The Brewers system will be better next season as some of their young talent moves up the ladder (the top levels are thinned out as well). I guess their system could look good if Gamel/Escobar still manage to qualify. If both guys don't qualify, then their system is pretty thin. Cards are thin due to trades.

 

I think the Reds have an average system. A couple years ago, this was one of the better systems in the game, but graduations have hurt, and guys have stalled. Add in the dumb Rolen trade costing 2 prospects. That said, there's still enough talent in the system that you could probably make a case for them. Pirates fans are really high on their system. I'm not there yet, but that's the other one that could get some post-season love. Personally, I think our system tops all of them, as I think we have enough depth to go with a better top shelf.

[toonsterwu]

I think Pirates fans are much higher on their system than I am. Let's take a look at two recent top 30 Pirates prospect lists:

 

a) http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/8/9/982814/2009-pittsburgh-pirates-top-30 From Charlie over at bucsdugout.com (SB Nation)

 

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Altoona. Grade: A-. An easy choice for the top spot, despite Alvarez' early struggles at Lynchburg. Alvarez has mostly righted the ship after being promoted to Altoona, hitting for a much higher average without sacrificing any power. His strikeouts and defensive issues are still a concern, but I'm a lot more convinced than I was two months ago that he's going to hit 30 bombs a year in the majors.

 

2. Tony Sanchez, C, West Virginia. Grade: B+. This is, I admit, an aggressive ranking, but that has more to do with my skepticism about Tabata and Alderson than anything else. Still, Sanchez's performance at West Virginia so far has been promising, and although Sanchez lacks star power, he seems to be a good bet to reach the big leagues quickly and perform well once he gets there.

 

3. Jose Tabata, OF, Indianapolis. Grade B+. Tabata had a decent year without putting to rest any of the questions about him--Can he hit for power? Can he keep his personal life in order? Tabata is still young and very promising, but he has a lot to work out.

 

4. Tim Alderson, SP, Altoona. Grade: B+. This is a good pitching prospect, but I have doubts about his ability to continue to strike out batters as he moves up the chain. If he doesn't get hurt--always an "if" with pitchers just a couple years out of high school--he's a good bet to post solid walk numbers in the majors, if nothing else.

 

5. Brad Lincoln, SP, Indianapolis. Grade: B. Lincoln has struggled a bit since his promotion to Class AAA, and it's worth keeping in mind that he's already 24. He'll probably make his Pirates debut next year, but judging from his minor league profile, he looks more like a mid-rotation starter than an emerging ace.

 

6. Robbie Grossman, OF, West Virginia. Grade: B. Grossman strikes out too much, but 19-year-olds who can hold their own in full-season ball don't grow on trees, and Grossman's .381 OBP bodes well for his future.

 

7. Rudy Owens, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: B. As with Alderson, this is a good pitching prospect. The numbers don't lie: Owens now has 101 strikeouts, 16 walks and a 1.55 ERA in 110 innings this year. But it will be interesting to see how Owens' stuff and flyball tendencies play at higher levels.

 

8. Starling Marte, OF, West Virginia. Grade: B-. Marte, who was hyped as a prospect even before he made it to the states, hasn't exactly quieted the buzz by posting a .333 average in his first 132 at bats for the Power.

 

9. Zach Von Rosenberg, SP. Grade: B-. Von Rosenberg is probably the highest-upside member of the Pirates' 2009 draft class. Obviously, though, he's a million miles from the majors, and it's unwise to put one's hopes in one basket where teenage pitching prospects are concerned.

 

10. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Altoona. Grade: C+. Hernandez has been a disappointment since arriving in the Nate McLouth trade, but at age 21, he still has time to develop some power and refine his on-base skills.

 

11. Jeff Locke, SP, Lynchburg. Grade C+. Another addition from the McLouth trade, Locke is still just 21 and is more interesting than his 5.23 ERA this year suggests. He gets a fair number of grounders and strikeouts, and has improved his walk rate since arriving from the Braves.

 

12. Daniel McCutchen, SP, Indianapolis. Grade: C+. McCutchen has had a solid season from Indianapolis, but at age 26, he's running out of time to separate himself from the Virgil Vasquezes of the world.

 

13. Brett Lorin, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Lorin has been lost in the shuffle somewhat because he was one of about a million young players acquired within a 48-hour period, but it's worth pointing out that he now has a 2.32 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 100.7 innings this year.

 

14. Colton Cain, SP. Grade: C+. Cain is another high-upside arm from the 2009 draft, paid a bonus of over $1 million. He hasn't yet pitched professionally.

 

15. Bryan Morris, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C+. I haven't the slightest idea what to make of Morris, but his season has been a complete bust. He's still young and still has a first-round pedigree, though, so it would be unwise to write him off completely.

 

16. Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Lynchburg. Grade: C+. D'Arnaud has had a serviceable first full season for an early-round draftee from a major college program. That might be faint praise, but at least it's praise. His game (strike zone control, the ability to play shortshop) should someday earn him a spot as a bench infielder, at the very least.

 

17. Quinton Miller, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Miller's stats at West Virginia haven't been so hot, but I'm not sure I'd worry much about those yet; he still has a great fastball, and he's young for the level.

 

18. Brooks Pounders, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Pounders, a 2009 second-round pick, earns a spot with a great debut for so far in rookie ball. As with Alderson and Owens, he's not supposed to have blazing stuff, so he could be tested as he moves up.

 

19. Trent Stevenson, SP. Grade: C. Another live-armed bonus baby from the 2009 draft, although Stevenson is probably even riskier than Von Rosenberg or Cain, since he may need to alter his mechanics a bit.

 

20. Quincy Latimore, OF, West Virginia. Grade: C. Latimore hasn't yet had a season in which he's really been dominant, but he's hit for a good average and excellent power at a young age this year. Strike-zone issues might be his achilles heel.

 

21. Josh Harrison, 2B, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Harrison is small, but he's posted an .825 OPS so far this year. He's a longshot, but he's Freddy Sanchez if absolutely everything breaks right for him.

 

22. Ronald Uviedo, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Uviedo pitched his way onto the Bucs' 40-man roster with a good performance at Hickory last year, and he's doing it again this year, this time as a starter. He should join Altoona's rotation in 2010.

 

23. Nathan Adcock, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. You can forget about that ugly ERA at High Desert, which is one of the toughest places for pitchers anywhere in the minor leagues. Instead, check out those 82 strikeouts in 77.3 innings last year in Class A, or his solid first two starts for the Hillcats. This guy is a prospect until he proves otherwise.

 

24. Jarek Cunningham, IF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Cunningham is out for the year, but don't forget about him. He had easily the strongest 2008 performance of anyone from that year's draft class, and he'll be back at full strength next year.

 

25. Exicardo Cayonez, OF, VSL. Grade: C. He's all the way down at the VSL, but as a 17-year-old bonus baby with a .396 OBP and bunches of doubles, he's got a shot.

 

26. Neil Walker, 3B, Indianapolis. Grade: C. 2004 first-round pick is having the same crap year he had last year. He has power and defensive ability, neither of which will do a bit of good unless he can hit for average or draw some walks.

 

27. Argenis Diaz, SS, Indianapolis. Grade: C. Sure, he can field, but can he hit? At all?

 

28. Michael Dubee, RP, Altoona. Grade: C. A reliever, yes, but one who has 73 strikeouts and 11 walks to go with a 1.87 ERA so far this year. He deserves more attention.

 

29. Rogelios Noris, OF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Mexican outfielder hit well in the VSL in 2008 and has posted a .980 OPS so far this year in the Gulf Coast League.

 

30. Victor Black, SP, State College. Grade: C. A top pick from the 2009 draft, Black throws hard and has a strikeout per inning so far for the Spikes.

 

Others worth watching: Evan Chambers, Zackry Dodson, Nate Baker, Diego Moreno, Ramon Cabrera, Nelson Pereira, Mitchell Fienemann, Jhonathan Ramos, Zachary Fuesser, Jonathan Barrios, Roberto Espinoza, Jorge Bishop, Calvin Anderson, Jordy Mercer, Hunter Strickland, Casey Erickson, Aaron Pribanic, Brian Friday, Jeff Sues, Tyler Herron, Eric Hacker, Danny Moskos, Benjamin Gonzalez. There are also several 2009 draftees still unsigned who would fit into this list, although not in the top 30.

 

b) From Dejan Kovacevic

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Altoona

2. Jose Tabata, CF, Indianapolis

3. Tim Alderson, RHP, Altoona

4. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Indianapolis

5. Gorkys Hernandez, CF, Altoona

6. Tony Sanchez, C, West Virginia

7. Starling Marte, CF, West Virginia

8. Robbie Grossman, LF, West Virginia

9. Bryan Morris, RHP, Lynchburg

10. Jeff Locke, LHP, Lynchburg

11. Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Lynchburg

12. Victor Black, RHP, State College

13. Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Indianapolis

14. Rudy Owens, LHP, Lynchburg

15. Neil Walker, 3B, Indianapolis

16. Brooks Pounders, RHP, Bradenton

17. Trent Stevenson, RHP, Bradenton

18. Argenis Diaz, SS, Indianapolis

19. Quincy Latimore, LF, West Virginia

20. Evan Chambers, CF, State College

21. Danny Moskos, LHP, Altoona

22. Jarek Cunningham, 3B, State College

23. Jordy Mercer, SS, Lynchburg

24. Quinton Miller, RHP, West Virginia

25. Shelby Ford, 2B, Altoona

26. Josh Harrison, 2B, Lynchburg

27. Nathan Adcock, RHP, Lynchburg

28. Diego Moreno, RHP, West Virginia

29. Eric Hacker, RHP, Indianapolis

30. Rogelio Noris, LF, Bradenton

 

All 30, plus Gulf Coast League shortstop Benji Gonzalez and catcher Ramon Cabrera, and a handful of others, are seen as having legitimate potential to make it to Pittsburgh, albeit with varying impacts. And this list does not count players in the minors who already have experience in the majors, such as first baseman Jeff Clement in Indianapolis. Also not counted are recent draft picks still unsigned -- including pitcher Zack von Rosenburg, projected to go immediately into the top 10 -- and others signed after the survey was taken earlier in the week.

 

As for elite players on the above list, the only prospects reasonably considered among the top 100 in the game, for now, are the top five, so the quantity is better than the quality.

 

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09221/989653-63.stm#ixzz0ORKMx9R1

__________________

 

My take: Yes, their system is solid, but this reminds me of the Cubs systems in the middle part of the decade with one elite guy, a few decent guys, and a bunch of cup of tea guys, along with buying the lower levels. Pedro Alvarez would be the top prospect for either system, but after that? I think you could make a case that, if you combined the 2 systems, after that, the Cubs would occupy 2-8. Maybe Tabata sneaks in there, but at some point, he has to start developing power, rather than the continued expectation that it will come. Alderson/Lincoln look to be upper level mid-end of the rotation arms. Buying the Pirates as better than the Cubs would have to come, IMO, from believing their depth was better, but even then, it's not like you are buying a lot of upper level guys. Rather, you are buying "upside" guys like Marte/Grossman/Owens in the lower levels (I really like Marte/Owens), along with their recent draft class. One could, but I'm not apt to, and I'm not sure the guys they have in the lower levels right now are significantly better than our long range options down there. In a couple years, if this draft class pans out for them, it sure sounds like this could be a top system in the game ... but that's down the line.

 

Comes down to what an individual grades/judges on, as rankings are more to engender discussion than anything else.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Will someone please get Jay Jackson out of the corner? I think he's learned his lesson.

 

 

Maybe next time he'll bring enough gum for the whole class. Seriously, its stupid to hold down one of your top 2 pitching prospects when you dont have a particularly strong farm system to begin with. Unless he axed up a girl scout troop or something, they need to just get over it and do whats best for the organization and Jackson.