Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-9-2009

[CubsWin]

Ryan Flaherty just hit his 16th HR of the year.

 

Frankly, I think he'll be fine. He's good decent patience and very good power, plus he's played three positions this season without much trouble defensively.

 

I believe the minorleague splits think that based on his K/BB/HR/line-drive rate etc., that with normal luck Flaherty should be hitting around .290 with an OPS well into the .800's. Which is more the kind of average I'd expect for a guy who had 15-17 HR's and a K-rate below 20%. There may be reasons why his actual average is lower. But I think there's a fair chance that he'll get promoted next year and do fine.

 

I think it will be intersting to see how his HR-rate goes next year. Sometimes a guy his age gets stronger, better at HR', and further improves his HR rate. If so, he could potentially be a serious HR threat, enough to overbalance some weaknesses in other areas. But it's also true that sometimes a guy hits fewer HR's against better pitching, and if theother stuff stays about the same buthis HR's drop, we'll be really uninterested.

Any concern that Flaherty has been playing in leagues that last two seasons that he's a bit too old for?

[craig]

I believe the minorleague splits think that based on his K/BB/HR/line-drive rate etc., that with normal luck Flaherty should be hitting around .290 with an OPS well into the .800's. Which is more the kind of average I'd expect for a guy who had 15-17 HR's and a K-rate below 20%. There may be reasons why his actual average is lower. But I think there's a fair chance that he'll get promoted next year and do fine.

 

I think it will be intersting to see how his HR-rate goes next year. Sometimes a guy his age gets stronger, better at HR', and further improves his HR rate. If so, he could potentially be a serious HR threat, enough to overbalance some weaknesses in other areas. But it's also true that sometimes a guy hits fewer HR's against better pitching, and if theother stuff stays about the same buthis HR's drop, we'll be really uninterested.

 

Any concern that Flaherty has been playing in leagues that last two seasons that he's a bit too old for?

 

Obviously, of course, absolutely, many. There's a fair chance he'll get promoted and do fine; but a fair chance he'll get promoted, and not be any good. It's hardly that uncommon for college hitters to do a lot better in A- than once promoted from there, particularly if promoted to AA. Or to have their HR output drop off seriously.

 

We saw Guyer lose his power and get waxed in AA this year. He didn't improve to the degree that the pitching did. Some names I remember from the past, Eric Patterson hit for huge average in A- as an old guy, but then was not special in AA. Ryan Gripp was a montster in A-, lot of HR's; but he never got any better and his numbers, HR's especially, fell off the table thereafter. And guys like EPatt and Gripp had much better A- batting averages than Flahrty has shown.

 

There's a good likelihood that he won't improve enough as he moves up to make the grade, since the bar is a lot higher at higher levels. And many guys his age may not be that far from their ceiling already. But my perception is that he's commonly forgotten, written off as an afterthought, since he's currently a 23-year-old hitting .258 in low-A. I just think I'd tend to be a little more optimistic about him if he was hitting .295 with an .840 OPS. And if next year he's a 23-year-old who is able to sustain his present HR-pace, and hit with both better luck and better average in a higher league, whether A+ or perhaps even AA, he might get more discussion.

 

He's not likely to work out. But he's got a chance.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Flaherty hasn't really been a bad luck BABIP guy. He just isn't hitting the ball very hard consistently(13.8% LD%, 14.4% IF/F). That's particularly worrisome for a college product like Flaherty that is old for his level.

[dew1679666265]

What are the thoughts of some of those here on Hung-Wen Chen? I read his Cubs Wiki page, but don't know much else about him.

 

What kind of upside does he have?

[ChiefsVoice]

I believe the minorleague splits think that based on his K/BB/HR/line-drive rate etc., that with normal luck Flaherty should be hitting around .290 with an OPS well into the .800's. Which is more the kind of average I'd expect for a guy who had 15-17 HR's and a K-rate below 20%. There may be reasons why his actual average is lower. But I think there's a fair chance that he'll get promoted next year and do fine.

 

I think it will be intersting to see how his HR-rate goes next year. Sometimes a guy his age gets stronger, better at HR', and further improves his HR rate. If so, he could potentially be a serious HR threat, enough to overbalance some weaknesses in other areas. But it's also true that sometimes a guy hits fewer HR's against better pitching, and if theother stuff stays about the same buthis HR's drop, we'll be really uninterested.

 

Any concern that Flaherty has been playing in leagues that last two seasons that he's a bit too old for?

 

Obviously, of course, absolutely, many. There's a fair chance he'll get promoted and do fine; but a fair chance he'll get promoted, and not be any good. It's hardly that uncommon for college hitters to do a lot better in A- than once promoted from there, particularly if promoted to AA. Or to have their HR output drop off seriously.

 

We saw Guyer lose his power and get waxed in AA this year. He didn't improve to the degree that the pitching did. Some names I remember from the past, Eric Patterson hit for huge average in A- as an old guy, but then was not special in AA. Ryan Gripp was a montster in A-, lot of HR's; but he never got any better and his numbers, HR's especially, fell off the table thereafter. And guys like EPatt and Gripp had much better A- batting averages than Flahrty has shown.

 

There's a good likelihood that he won't improve enough as he moves up to make the grade, since the bar is a lot higher at higher levels. And many guys his age may not be that far from their ceiling already. But my perception is that he's commonly forgotten, written off as an afterthought, since he's currently a 23-year-old hitting .258 in low-A. I just think I'd tend to be a little more optimistic about him if he was hitting .295 with an .840 OPS. And if next year he's a 23-year-old who is able to sustain his present HR-pace, and hit with both better luck and better average in a higher league, whether A+ or perhaps even AA, he might get more discussion.

 

He's not likely to work out. But he's got a chance.

 

I don't really get this age thing and never have. I've been in the MWL for six years now and while there are a few teenage standouts (Moustakas, Barton, Vitters) most of the successful hitters in this league are 22-23. The best hitter I have seen in this league was Ian Kinsler who was 22 when he hit .402 for half a season here in 2004 and I think he has worked out OK. and Patterson might not have "lit up" AA in 2006 but he is a career .320 AAA hitter and would be fine at the MLB level if given a consistent chance.

 

22 at the start of a season and turning 23 during it is not too old for this league but just about right. As long as teams draft college players, they are going to play in the MWL at the age of 22. It's that simple. Heck Great Lakes has 3 25 year olds and a 26 year old. And Kane County is always loaded with 22-23 year olds. I'd be more concerned over a pitcher at the age of 23 in this league, but nobody is putting an asterisk next to Chris Carpenter's (23) stats from this season. It isnt the players fault, all they can do is produce at the level they are sent to. But from what I have seen first hand the pitchers succeed in this level at a much younger age than the hitters.

 

As for Flaherty specifically, he can handle the bat which he has shown a lot more the 2nd half. He got screwed up in the 1st half on 2 fronts, 1 trying to pull the ball and 2, Marty hit him in a different spot every day, usually 6-8. He has settled into the 2 slot now and is using the whole field. Most of his homers/doubles go to left-center. I think he will be fine next year at the FSL using that approach and going in instructs to keep working on it. His number one question is position. second, short, third? Who knows. That will be the biggest issue for Ryan in the years to come.

 

Just my opinion, thanks for following the Chiefs and talking about the minors on this board, i love reading these forums every day and seeing everyone's input and opinions. Its what makes this the best game in the world!

[chattbaseball]

He's not likely to work out. But he's got a chance.

 

I don't really get this age thing and never have. I've been in the MWL for six years now and while there are a few teenage standouts (Moustakas, Barton, Vitters) most of the successful hitters in this league are 22-23.

 

I agree with you Nathan. I think too many posters on here give way too much weight to age. It seems like there is a much higher likelihood of an older pitcher in the MWL not working out than an older hitter - mainly because the older an arm is, the less life it still has in it (or you would think).

 

It might be more fun to cheer prospects that shoot through the lower levels of a system quickly, but that's not really indicative of becoming an everyday MLB player. Seems like way too often a kid gets pushed too aggressively and it ends up setting them back - if nothing else, from a mental stand point. I like to see clubs taking their time with a hitter, allowing them to figure things out, become consistent and then give them the bump.

 

Obviously there becomes a point of concern, but I think Flaherty is far from it. In fact, there's nobody in Peoria that would concern me. The three guys that have been in pro ball the longest (probably Perez, Rundle, Burke) were all drafted or signed when they were 18...

 

Just for the heck of it - hitters and DOB on the Chiefs roster (youngest to oldest):

*drafted out of HS

~signed from overseas

 

~Junior Lake (3/27/90)

B. Jackson (8/2/88)

DJ LeMahieu (7/13/88)

*Kyler Burke (4/20/88)

~Nelson Perez (11/16/87)

*Drew Rundle (11/5/87)

Jovan Rosa (10/26/87)

~Mario Mercedes (11/22/86)

Michael Brenly (10/14/86)

Ryan Flaherty (7/27/86)

Rebel Ridling (5/22/86)

David Macias (3/7/86)

[Guest]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090809&content_id=6342756&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

 

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/8564/52047434.jpg

 

http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/2904/jdvzvmwv1.jpg

So Taguchi

[craig]

Thanks, Nate. I don't think the age concern about Flaherty is just that he's 22. If he was hitting .400 like Kinsler or like Eric Patterson did, he'd be viewed differently that with the .258 average he really has. But I think your point is well taken, that if you draft college, normally guys will play A- their first full season, that's the way it is. I guess the concern is that if a guy is a really good prospect, then when placed in A- he could be pretty dominant at that age (Kinsler, Patterson, Ryan Gripp), and that .258 Flaherty has not been. So it follows that very likely he's not that great a hitter.

 

I think it's also the reality that if you draft college guys, you probably aren't going to get as much buzz for top-prospect lists. It's the nature of the fan/BA type mindset that a "great" prospect is one who is not only very good, but does so while younger than his competition, with extra years of potential development and physical maturation ahead of him. When you draft college guys who are 22 by the time they reach full season, they will never get that extra credit. To retain any serious consideration on prospect lists it is expected that they perform; with high performance expectations fans are quick to be disappointed (.258 average) and hard to be pleasantly surprised (Gripp and Patterson both hit .333 with .940+ OPS and snazzy BB/K.)

 

Second, I think his assignment to Peoria rather than Daytona in April was a disappointment and was interpreted to not reflect favorably on him. Most college picks will start their subsequent summer at A- and that means age 22, that's the norm. But most college picks aren't 1st round/sandwich, Flaherty was. And he was an "old" 22, not a young 22. And he wasn't a raw projection guy; his scouting reports suggested that he might be as pplished as a college junior could get. Son of a baseball coach; three-year starter in the best college conference in the world; beneficiary of a smart school with smart optimal coaching. If any college hitter seemed like he'd be ready to skip straight to daytona, Flaherty seemed to be the candidate. So I think the fact that he wasn't ready for Daytona raised some red flags from the start, and then still being a bottom-of-the-order guy behind no-contact people like Nelson Perez.

 

Flaherty hasn't really been a bad luck BABIP guy. He just isn't hitting the ball very hard consistently(13.8% LD%, 14.4% IF/F). That's particularly worrisome for a college product like Flaherty that is old for his level.

 

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi Suggests otherwise, that he has hit in modestly bad luck. Site lists BABIP, GB%, LD%, FB%, and IF/F, so I assume they built that into their calculation of what luck/park adjusted numbers "should" be. Without having inlcuded yesterday's 3/5-with-HR day, his luck-adjusted numbers as follows:

.294 BA, .333 BABIP, .354 OBP, .495 slugging, .849 OPS.

 

If you enter yesterday's numbers, his "expected" slugging would reach .500 and his OPS over .850.

 

If he was hitting .298 with 16 HR's, an .850+ OPS, a .350+ OBP, and non-alarming K-rate, I don't think we'd be viewing his season as a disappointment. I'd not view him as can't-miss, or as a top-5 guy. But given his draft status and the favorable adjustment/improvement that he's made over the course of the season, I'd think he might be in discussion as being among our top ten prospects.

 

If he was somewhere in the 8-20 range on our top-prospect list, of course there would be questions, no can't-miss guys in that area.

 

Questions I have:

1. Has he really figured something out, or is he basically the same hitter he's been, he just happens to be hot now. But the hots like the colds don't persist. Or is he really better in some sustainable way?

 

2. He hasn't made many errors, so he seems rather reliable defensively. But will he actually be good at 2B or 3B, or still no better than limited at either one? And does he have any chance of being acceptable at SS? A low-errors 20HR LH SS, you could put up with some less-than-goldglove-range... What are your thoughts about his defense at the various spots, nate?

 

3. What's up with his power? He hit only 2 and 4 HR's his first two years at Vandy, then 14, now he's at 16 in wood-bat pros. I don't recall the scouts being sold on his power pre-draft. Is this a guy who is just getting progressively stronger and who is going to be a 20+ HR guy, without needing to sell out totally and be overswinging constantly to get there? Or is this Brendan harris: at age 21, Harris hit 15 HR at Daytona/AA, and many of us thought that perhaps as a good contact hitter he was going to progress into a 20+ serious HR-hitting 2B. But the next year he hit 5, and he never did sustain his 21-year-old HR rate, or mature into more. Last year Guyer looked very intriguing HR-wise; this year he's hit just one. So if Flaherty's HR outcome real, something sustainable or something that may grow further? Or is it a deal where he'll never get any stronger than he is right now at age 23, but as the pitching gets better his HR's will decrease, not sustain or increase?

 

HR's are great for batting average; they're all hits. It's great for slugging. It's great for OBP. It's great for defense (well, not really; but average defense is OK for a power hitter, not for a low-OPS guy.)

[falcon]

Most of the "power hitters" hit a brick wall when they get to the FSL where huge parks,high humidity,and no wind make a player look like he's lost his power. Put the same player in the PCL and he appears to have all kinds of power.

[craig]

Most of the "power hitters" hit a brick wall when they get to the FSL where huge parks,high humidity,and no wind make a player look like he's lost his power. Put the same player in the PCL and he appears to have all kinds of power.

 

That was one of the reasons why when Brandan Harris hit 13 there (and then two more at AA after an August promote), at age 21 after skipping A-, I thought he might be a HR-prospect. Likewise Nic Jackson hit 19 as a 21-year-old skip-up. Not many more after that.

 

I understand there are some hard-to-HR FSL parks, but I didn't get the impression that Daytona was one of them. Am I wrong?

[Wrigley Rat]

I feel that age is a very important factor when determining a prospect's status. I think that a player repeating a level, or being demoted a level ought to be significantly better than his competition. I think that a college junior or senior ought to perform significantly better than a draft-eligible sophomore, community college player, or high schooler at the same level.

 

Many of us try to use the following rule as a guideline:

Iowa - 24 years old

Tennessee - 23

Daytona - 22

Peoria - 21

Boise - 20

Mesa -19

Dominican - 18

 

Those who are younger than that age and performing well is a significant prospect (if other factors back that up). If they are at that age and performing well, they are a slightly lesser prospect (unless other factors come into play). If they are older than that age, that player needs a solid excuse (Tommy John surgery, red-shirted in college, position change, etc.) for me to consider them a significant prospect.

 

This rule seems to be more important in the upper levels of the minor leagues than the lower levels for the Cubs, since they often have rosters filled with more age-appropriate players than most organizations. The upper levels can be filled with roster-filler guys, major-league insurance guys, and AAAA guys.

 

Here are all of the guys who are at least two years older than they should be for their levels (Age) (Possible explanation):

Iowa:

- Matt Craig (28) (AAAA guy)

- Casey Fossum (31) (Major-League insurance)

- John-Ford Griffin (29) (Roster Filler)

- Micah Hoffpauir (29) (Major Leaguer with options)

- Mark Johnson (33) (Major-League insurance)

- J.R. Mathes (27) (Roster Filler)

- Vince Perkins (27) (Free Agent Pickup with a possible future)

- Luis Rivas (29) (Major-League insurance)

- Bobby Scales (31) (Major-League insurance)

- Brad Snyder (27) (Waiver-wire Pickup with a possible future)

- So Taguchi (39) (Major-League insurance)

 

Tennessee:

- Robinson Chirinos (25) (Position-change)

- Doug Deeds (28) (Roster filler)

- Blake Lalli (26) (2-way guy in college, drafted as a 23-year old, about one level behind)

- Marcos Mateo (25) (Acquired from Cincinnati who advanced him slowly)

- Jeremy Papelbon (26) (Lefty who has moved slowly, drafted as a 23-year old)

- David Patton (25) (Rehab - err sort of)

 

Daytona:

- Todd Blackford (24) (Currently injured and on the Peoria DL)

- Jake Muyco (24) (Position-change)

- Luke Sommer (24) (Position-change)

 

Peoria:

- David Macias (23) (Trying to master several positions)

- Rebel Ridling (23) (Repeating Low-A - not a great indicator of success)

- Austin Bibens-Dirkx (24) (Age-appropriate in '06 & '07 but '08 was a wasted year, he's building confidence in Low-A)

- Josh Whitlock (23) (Drafted last year, numbers have not been good enough for a promotion)

 

None of these players would appear on my Top 30 prospect list, with the possible exceptions of Marcos Mateo, Jeremy Papelbon, and maybe Blake Lalli. I would say that true prospects who haven't had major injury issues or changed positions will be within a year and a half of their "appropriate age for the level they play."

[Guest]

What are the thoughts of some of those here on Hung-Wen Chen? I read his Cubs Wiki page, but don't know much else about him.

 

What kind of upside does he have?

 

He can't be more than potential middle relief guy. He has a mid-to-upper 80s FB and a slider.

[craig]

I feel that age is a very important factor when determining a prospect's status. ...

 

Many of us try to use the following rule as a guideline:

Iowa - 24 years old

Tennessee - 23

Daytona - 22

Peoria - 21

Boise - 20

Mesa -19

Dominican - 18

 

Those who are younger than that age and performing well is a significant prospect (if other factors back that up). If they are at that age and performing well, they are a slightly lesser prospect (unless other factors come into play). If they are older than that age, that player needs a solid excuse (Tommy John surgery, red-shirted in college, position change, etc.) for me to consider them a significant prospect.

 

This rule seems to be more important in the upper levels of the minor leagues than the lower levels for the Cubs...."

 

Good post, wrigley, very well articulated, makes sense. And I would guess that whether all posters have organized their analysis as well as you have, that this perspective is pretty representative.

 

I think it's in good context with Flaherty discussion. Because by your layout, it's college players who will be most likely to be underappreciated. You note 21 as the Peoria age, and state that "if they are older than that age, that player needs a solid excuse ... for me to consider them a significant prospect."

 

Essentially if a normal-age college pick doesn't skip to Daytona, then he wouldn't qualify as significant. Any 21-year-old draftee who doesn't skip Peoria will be 22 for most of his first full season, and thus will be too old for you. I think that's the niche where there may be some significant prospects who go underappreciated. Flaherty may be one such.

 

But, on the other hand your policy would seem to work for almost all of our guys currently. Probably Flaherty isn't very significant. Bristow, he had something of a position switch, plus injuries, so he has excuse even in the event that he does eventually emerge. Josh Harrison was a young draftee, so he was only 21 most of this summer. Shafer and Carpenter started old at Peoria, but they both had surgery excuses. Leverton, Coleman, and Jackson all did skip up. LeMahieu and jackson are young, so even if they do come back to Peoria next April they'll still qualify at 21. Rusin had surgery, so he's excused regardless of where they put him.

 

And your policy may also be something in the Cubs drafting mind. They've picked a lot of college guys, but many of the higher selections have been oriented toward either the young side or the excused-by-injury-or-position-switch deal. Off the quick top of my head, Flaherty almost seems like one of the rare guys who didn't fit under the young/injured/switch umbrella and still didn't skip up to Daytona. Guyer, he's probably not significant, but he had injury and two-sport issues. Barney and Ty Wright skipped straight to Daytona. Donaldson had switch issues. Thomas was both young and skipped.

 

If Eric Patterson is the best recent example of a "significant" Peoria guy who wasn't young/injured/switch, maybe that does give a hint on how rare and limited the significance of guys like that at Peoria are.

 

Hopefully Flaherty will bust out and become better than EPatt.

[dew1679666265]

What are the thoughts of some of those here on Hung-Wen Chen? I read his Cubs Wiki page, but don't know much else about him.

 

What kind of upside does he have?

 

He can't be more than potential middle relief guy. He has a mid-to-upper 80s FB and a slider.

 

Thanks. I didn't know much about him, but listening to the Smokies broadcast got me curious.