7/10/09 Cardinals(Carpenter) @ Cubs (Harden) 1:20 PM WGN

[Fred Hornkohl]

BOTTOM OF THE EIGHTH INNING

 

Motte in to pitch for St. Louis

D Lee flied out to center field

A Ramirez lined out to second base

Soriano doubled to down the left field line

Fontenot struck out swinging

 

0 runs 1 hits 0 errors 1 men left on base

 

                1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9              R  H  E
St. Louis       1 0 2 0 1 4 0 0                8 10  0
CUBS            0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0                3  8  2

 

Home runs:

St. Louis: Pujols (32)

CUBS: D Lee (17)

 

St. Louis      IP  H  R ER BB  K HR PIT
Carpenter     6.0  7  3  3  2  6  1  93
McClellan     1.0  0  0  0  0  0  0  18
Motte         1.0  1  0  0  0  1  0  12

 

CUBS           IP  H  R ER BB  K HR PIT
Harden        5.0  7  4  4  4  6  1 101
Heilman       1.0  2  3  3  3  0  0  34
Samardzija    2.0  1  0  0  2  1  0  32

[illiniguy]

I wanted him to be thrown out at second so bad.

 

I still dont get how he lesuirely just walks and trots whether its going to a base or a ball in the outfield..He has no sense or urgency and thinks he has all the time in the world and nothing will happen like getting thrown out or someone taking an extra base on him and it happens alot and he still does it. It pisses me off

I really don't blame him for the outfielder thing. The guy isn't an outfielder. It isn't his fault everyone wants him to play it.

[Fred Hornkohl]

         St. Louis        CUBS
P/PA          3.98        3.73
RBI%          0.20        0.13
R/BR          0.42        0.30
BA           0.323       0.258
OBP          0.487       0.303
SLG          0.516       0.387
OPS          1.003       0.690
ERA           3.38        7.88
BB/9          2.25       10.13
K/9           7.88        7.88

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Of course it's based on the expected levels going into the season.

 

Not so much directed at you specifically, but this is just touching on a pet peeve of mine.

 

The pendulum has swung way too far to the other end, and rather than overreact to small samples, we statheads refuse to accept that it's normal for players to have sudden changes in ability. We've got 250-350+ PAs of fresh data on these guys, and that means something. There was always a non-zero collapse rate on guys like Soriano, and now that we've seen him collapse for 356 PAs going into today, we should be upping that rate pretty substantially.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I really don't blame him for the outfielder thing. The guy isn't an outfielder. It isn't his fault everyone wants him to play it.

 

If he's not an outfielder, he's a DH, because his legs couldn't dream of holding up in the infield these days.

[Fred Hornkohl]

CUBS are 2-32 when they trail at the end of the 8th inning.

 

 

Go CUBS !!

[Hall7810]

Jeff Stevens era has begun.

[illiniguy]

I really don't blame him for the outfielder thing. The guy isn't an outfielder. It isn't his fault everyone wants him to play it.

 

If he's not an outfielder, he's a DH, because his legs couldn't dream of holding up in the infield these days.

I'm not arguing that.

[Sammy Sofa]

Of course it's based on the expected levels going into the season.

 

Not so much directed at you specifically, but this is just touching on a pet peeve of mine.

 

The pendulum has swung way too far to the other end, and rather than overreact to small samples, we statheads refuse to accept that it's normal for players to have sudden changes in ability. We've got 250-350+ PAs of fresh data on these guys, and that means something. There was always a non-zero collapse rate on guys like Soriano, and now that we've seen him collapse for 356 PAs going into today, we should be upping that rate pretty substantially.

 

I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to have dropped off for good...but it would be a pretty remarkable thing if he did that (relatively) suddenly and that dramatically, especially after the start he got off to.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Stevens in to pitch for the CUBS

[Fred Hornkohl]

Thurston flied out to deep right center field

[PrimeTime]

FukuRange

[Fred Hornkohl]

Duncan, pinch hitting for Motte, popped out to shortstop

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to have dropped off for good...but it would be a pretty remarkable thing if he did that (relatively) suddenly and that dramatically, especially after the start he got off to.

 

It really wouldn't, that's what I'm trying to say. Guys fall off the cliff all the time in baseball. We understand now that the most likely result is a guy staying about the same each year (plexiglass principle and all), but we seem to be underestimating the spread of possibilities. The bell curve is much wider than common expectations around here seem to think.

 

Baseball players rarely follow a simple curve over their career. They break out big and they bust out big quite frequently.

[illiniguy]

We are one out away from the biggest comeback ever.

[illiniguy]

I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to have dropped off for good...but it would be a pretty remarkable thing if he did that (relatively) suddenly and that dramatically, especially after the start he got off to.

 

It really wouldn't, that's what I'm trying to say. Guys fall off the cliff all the time in baseball. We understand now that the most likely result is a guy staying about the same each year (plexiglass principle and all), but we seem to be underestimating the spread of possibilities. The bell curve is much wider than common expectations around here seem to think.

 

Baseball players rarely follow a simple curve over their career. They break out big and they bust out big quite frequently.

So when's Alby gonna fall off one?

[PrimeTime]

We also get to be embarrased nationally on Sunday Night Baseball this weekend.

[Fred Hornkohl]

TOP OF THE NINTH INNING

 

Stevens in to pitch for the CUBS

Thurston flied out to deep right center field

Duncan, pinch hitting for Motte, popped out to shortstop

Ryan grounded out to short, 1-6-3

 

0 runs 0 hits 0 errors 0 men left on base

 

                1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9              R  H  E
St. Louis       1 0 2 0 1 4 0 0 0              8 10  0
CUBS            0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0                3  8  2

 

Home runs:

St. Louis: Pujols (32)

CUBS: D Lee (17)

 

St. Louis      IP  H  R ER BB  K HR PIT
Carpenter     6.0  7  3  3  2  6  1  93
McClellan     1.0  0  0  0  0  0  0  18
Motte         1.0  1  0  0  0  1  0  12

 

CUBS           IP  H  R ER BB  K HR PIT
Harden        5.0  7  4  4  4  6  1 101
Heilman       1.0  2  3  3  3  0  0  34
Samardzija    2.0  1  0  0  2  1  0  32
Stevens       1.0  0  0  0  0  0  0  12

[illiniguy]

We also get to be embarrased nationally on Sunday Night Baseball this weekend.

eh, we weren't gonna win the carp game no matter what. We could be ok the rest of the series.

[Arnold Layne]

Carps gone, but who cares. Cubs aint scoring 5 against anyone, and whose to say they're done scoring. Maybe the Cards are just the better team. At least the Cubs get to keep their mystique, and cant nobody take that away. If you want championships, go become a Red Sox fan.

 

A healthy Cub team playing to near their abilities blows this Cardinal team away.

 

 

:lol:

 

Wait, wait, wait...what's hilarious about what he said? You honestly think this team healthy and the players performing even just close to expected levels would not be a good team?

 

 

 

It's Kool Aid at best. "Healthy" is a laughable excuse. Ask the Dodgers how they did when they had players out.

 

Bottom line is that Hendry has no idea how to build a MLB caliber offense. His struggles in developing an OF after being handed Sosa and Alou are well documented. 2008 was an outlier for his tenure, even though he has had a top five NL payroll the entire time. The sooner people get over the flukey 97 win season, the better off their mental health will be in the context of Cubs baseball.

Edited July 10, 2009 by Arnold Layne

[Fred Hornkohl]

K. Hill            AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  P/PA   IsoD   RBI%
Leading off        15    2    4    0    0    1    1    2    4  0.267  0.353  0.467  0.820  0.300  3.35  0.086  0.000
bases empty        38    4    9    2    0    1    1    3    8  0.237  0.293  0.368  0.661  0.276  3.63  0.056  0.000
Late (7th on)      30    1    8    2    0    1    2    1   10  0.267  0.313  0.433  0.746  0.368  3.70  0.046  0.077
0 outs             25    3    7    0    0    1    1    2    6  0.280  0.333  0.400  0.733  0.333  3.54  0.053  0.000
CUBS trailing      28    2    6    0    0    2    4    3    8  0.214  0.290  0.429  0.719  0.222  4.35  0.076  0.105
last 15 games      12    0    4    1    0    0    1    1    2  0.333  0.385  0.417  0.801  0.400  3.77  0.051  0.200
July                9    0    4    1    0    0    1    1    0  0.444  0.500  0.556  1.056  0.444  3.60  0.056  0.250
Home               29    2    7    1    0    1    3    6    7  0.241  0.371  0.379  0.751  0.286  4.08  0.130  0.118
Day                32    3    8    1    0    2    4    7   10  0.250  0.400  0.469  0.869  0.300  4.22  0.150  0.100
vs Right           63    6   14    2    0    2    7   10   22  0.222  0.338  0.349  0.687  0.308  4.20  0.116  0.116
vs Motte            0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.00  0.000  0.000
vs. St. L           2    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    0  0.500  0.500  0.500  1.000  0.500  3.00  0.000  0.000
Lance Barksdale     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.00  0.000  0.000

season totals      75    6   18    3    0    2    8   10   25  0.240  0.337  0.360  0.697  0.333  4.08  0.097  0.125

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So when's Alby gonna fall off one?

 

Well, the crappy thing there is that he's at the extreme, extreme end of the bell curve, and the norms are a little different out there. Just like great players often step in and contribute at abnormally young ages (smacking the crap out of the ball at an alleged 21), they also tend to last longer.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Kinney in to pitch for St Louis

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to have dropped off for good...but it would be a pretty remarkable thing if he did that (relatively) suddenly and that dramatically, especially after the start he got off to.

 

It really wouldn't, that's what I'm trying to say. Guys fall off the cliff all the time in baseball. We understand now that the most likely result is a guy staying about the same each year (plexiglass principle and all), but we seem to be underestimating the spread of possibilities. The bell curve is much wider than common expectations around here seem to think.

 

Baseball players rarely follow a simple curve over their career. They break out big and they bust out big quite frequently.

 

Like what we've seen this year? That just doesn't seem like something that occurs too commonly. Based on the first several weeks Soriano seemed primed for one of the better offensive seasons of his career (personally, I don't give a damn about stolen bases). Given the x-factor of the knee issues showing up and the relative timing to when he fell off, wouldn't it be far more likely that it's due to that particular injury issue as opposed to a sudden dropoff the equivalent of the floor just dropping out from under him?

[gflore34]

I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to have dropped off for good...but it would be a pretty remarkable thing if he did that (relatively) suddenly and that dramatically, especially after the start he got off to.

 

It really wouldn't, that's what I'm trying to say. Guys fall off the cliff all the time in baseball. We understand now that the most likely result is a guy staying about the same each year (plexiglass principle and all), but we seem to be underestimating the spread of possibilities. The bell curve is much wider than common expectations around here seem to think.

 

Baseball players rarely follow a simple curve over their career. They break out big and they bust out big quite frequently.

So when's Alby gonna fall off one?

 

Don't know because, I'm convinced he's 36-38 years old if he's a day.